Visual Thinking
0 view | +0 today
Follow
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Rescooped by Rick Gill from Strategy and Competitive Intelligence by Bonnie Hohhof
Scoop.it!

Reduce Bias In Analysis: Why Should We Care? (Or: The Effects Of Evidence Weighting On Cognitive Bias And Forecasting Accuracy)

Reduce Bias In Analysis: Why Should We Care? (Or: The Effects Of Evidence Weighting On Cognitive Bias And Forecasting Accuracy) | Visual Thinking | Scoop.it

We have done much work in the past on mitigating the effects of cognitive biases in intelligence analysis, as have others. This post, however, is indicative of where we think cognitive bias research should go (and in our case, is going) in the future.  Bottomline: Reducing bias in intelligence analysis is not enough and may not be important at all. 
What analysts should focus on is forecasting accuracy. In fact, our current research suggests that a less biased forecast is not necessarily a more accurate forecast.  More importantly, if indeed bias does not correlate with forecasting accuracy, why should we care about mitigating its effects? In a recent experiment with 115 intel students, I investigated a mechanism that I think operates at the root of the cognitive bias polemic: Evidence weightin


Via Bonnie Hohhof
more...
Eli Levine's curator insight, March 31, 2014 1:34 PM

It makes sense that if you just look at a given set of information from the outside world you should be able to reach some intuitive conclusions about the information.  The question then becomes whether or not the information that is presented is accurately reflecting the reality that is there in the first place.

 

This shows up in politics and government a lot, as people seek out irrelevant information to back up a pre-existing opinion or belief, rather than seek out the technical truths of the matter that are relevant to the situation at hand.  This is, unfortunately, how things get messed up pretty badly in our governing world, which then bleeds over into our social, economic and environmental worlds as well.

 

It's when we behave as lawyers instead of scientists that we run into problems; seeking for non-related facts and spins that support our bias rather than seeking out the technical truths of the matter.  It's not a difficult thing to do, for some.  But it seems that, for many in government, it is incredibly difficult indeed to focus on the reality rather than the opinion of reality.

 

Think about it.

Rescooped by Rick Gill from Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
Scoop.it!

24 Essential Mind Mapping and Brainstorming Tools

24 Essential Mind Mapping and Brainstorming Tools | Visual Thinking | Scoop.it
  via Mashable Mind mapping is the process of using visual diagrams to show the relationships between ideas or information. Its popular uses include project planning, collecting and organizing...

Via Jeffrey Jablonski, Ph.D., Rick Gill
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Rick Gill from Leverage visual thinking for planning, convening, and reporting
Scoop.it!

The Ten (and a half) Commandments of Visual Thinking | The Art Of

The Ten (and a half) Commandments of Visual Thinking | The Art Of | Visual Thinking | Scoop.it

Via Catherine Bachy
more...
No comment yet.