Non-Equilibrium Social Science
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Non-Equilibrium Social Science
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Predicting Successful Memes using Network and Community Structure

Predicting Successful Memes using Network and Community Structure | Non-Equilibrium Social Science | Scoop.it

Via luiy, Shaolin Tan, António F Fonseca
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luiy's curator insight, March 27, 2014 1:44 PM

We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that features based on community structure are the most powerful predictors of future success. We also find that early popularity of a meme is not a good predictor of its future popularity, contrary to common belief. Our methods outperform other approaches, particularly in the task of detecting very popular or unpopular memes.

António F Fonseca's curator insight, April 2, 2014 6:01 AM

Another paper about popularity prediction.

Rescooped by NESS from Gentlemachines
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This algorithm can predict a revolution

This algorithm can predict a revolution | Non-Equilibrium Social Science | Scoop.it
For students of international conflict, 2013 provided plenty to examine. There was civil war in Syria, ethnic violence in China, and riots to the point of revolution in Ukraine. For those working...

Via Artur Alves
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Artur Alves's curator insight, February 18, 2014 5:17 AM

"For students of international conflict, 2013 provided plenty to examine. There was civil war in Syria, ethnic violence in China, and riots to the point of revolution in Ukraine. For those working at Duke University’s Ward Lab, all specialists in predicting conflict, the year looks like a betting sheet, full of predictions that worked and others that didn’t pan out.

 

When the lab put out their semiannual predictions in July, they gave Paraguay a 97 percent chance of insurgency, largely based on reports of Marxist rebels. The next month, guerrilla campaigns intensified, proving out the prediction. In the case of China's armed clashes between Uighurs and Hans, the models showed a 33 percent chance of violence, even as the cause of each individual flare-up was concealed by the country's state-run media. On the other hand, the unrest in Ukraine didn't start raising alarms until the action had already started, so the country was left off the report entirely."

 

 

Eli Levine's curator insight, February 18, 2014 4:47 PM

I wonder if they're checking the United States at all with this supposed "existential threat" talk.  You'd think you'd be able to get the same kind of data by simply talking with people in the streets and getting the "temperature" of people's sentiments.

 

Still, I bet we can make it better than 80% if we combine the endeavors of investigative journalism with this computer algorithm.  Would be incredibly helpful for us to know, as well as to share with others.

 

Think about it.

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Competition among memes in a world with limited attention

Competition among memes in a world with limited attention | Non-Equilibrium Social Science | Scoop.it
The wide adoption of social media has increased the competition among ideas for our finite attention. We employ a parsimonious agent-based model to study whether such a competition may affect the popularity of different memes, the diversity of information we are exposed to, and the fading of our collective interests for specific topics. Agents share messages on a social network but can only pay attention to a portion of the information they receive. In the emerging dynamics of information diffusion, a few memes go viral while most do not. The predictions of our model are consistent with empirical data from Twitter, a popular microblogging platform. Surprisingly, we can explain the massive heterogeneity in the popularity and persistence of memes as deriving from a combination of the competition for our limited attention and the structure of the social network, without the need to assume different intrinsic values among ideas.

Via luiy
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luiy's curator insight, February 22, 2014 8:06 AM

Here we outline a number of empirical findings that motivate both our question and the main assumptions behind our model. We then describe the proposed agent-based toy model of meme diffusion and compare its predictions with the empirical data. Finally we show that the social network structure and our finite attention are both key ingredients of the diffusion model, as their removal leads to results inconsistent with the empirical data.

 

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Limited attention


We first explore the competition among memes. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the attention of a user is somewhat independent from the overall diversity of information discussed in a given period. Let us quantify the breadth of attention of a user through Shannon entropy S = −Σi f(i) log f(i) where f(i) is the proportion of tweets generated by the user about meme i. Given a user who has posted n messages, her entropy can be as small as 0, if all of her posts are about the same meme; or as large as log n if she has posted a message about each of n different memes. We can measure the diversity of the information available in the system analogously, defining f(i) as the proportion of tweets about meme i across all users. Note that these entropy-based measures are subject to the limits of our operational definition of a meme; finer or coarser definitions would yield different values.

 

John Caswell's curator insight, March 2, 2014 8:23 AM

Very intetesting! Attention spans!