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News on the effects of bounded rationality in economics and business, relationships and politics
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Upside of Irrationality Chapter 11: Lessons from Our Irrationalities

Dan discusses Chapter 11, Lessons from Our Irrationalities: Why We Need to Test Everything
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New clues to Wikipedia's shared super mind

New clues to Wikipedia's shared super mind | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Wikipedia's remarkable accuracy and usefulness comes from something larger than the sum of its written contributions, a new study by SFI Research Fellow Simon DeDeo finds.

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'Nudge unit' to be part privatised

'Nudge unit' to be part privatised | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
A government unit aimed at "nudging" people into making better lifestyle choices is to become a profit-making business.
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MARK SIEBEL - AGAINST PROBABILISTIC MEASURES OF COHERENCE

ABSTRACT. It is shown that the probabilistic theories of coherence proposed up to now produce a number of counter-intuitive results. The last section provides some reasons for believing that no probabilistic measure will ever be able to adequately capture coherence. First, there can be no function whose arguments are nothing but tuples of probabilities, and which assigns different values to pairs of propositions {A,B} and {A, C} if A implies both B and C, or their negations, and if P(B)=P(C). But such sets may indeed differ in their degree of coherence. Second, coherence is ensitive to explanatory relations between the propositions in question. Explanation, however, can hardly be captured solely in terms of probability.

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Management de la complexité: une application concrète

Management de la complexité: une application concrète | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Via Philippe Vallat
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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, March 12, 2013 10:07 AM

Publication par l'OFEV de notre travail sur les projets d'assainissement de sites contaminés complexes.

Juan Pablo F.'s curator insight, March 22, 2013 7:31 PM

La dimensión del aprendizaje es transversal e integrada en todas las otras... revisar en donde se refleja lo ambiental...

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Riscoprire la teoria dell’autopoiesi nella caratterizzazione dei sistemi sociali

Leonardo Bich - Luisa Damiano

Cosa possono dirci le teorie biologiche sulle organizzazioni sociali?
Sono molti i tentativi di rispondere a questa domanda dal punto di vista evolutivo o ecologico, partendo per esempio dallo studio dei comportamenti degli animali sociali e dei fenomeni collettivi (swarm, etc.). A questi approcci, di estremo interesse, ne vorremmo affiancare uno differente, basato sulla seguente pecisazione della domanda iniziale: "un modello teorico di organismo vivente può dirci qualcosa sull’organizzazione e sul funzionamento dei sistemi sociali?". In linea di principio la risposta è affermativa, perché tali sistemi sono costituiti e realizzati da individui biologici. Ma l’irriducibilità dei fenomeni sociali a quelli biologici impone il problema di stabilire in quale modo e in che misura la caratterizzazione del dominio sociale può appoggiarsi su quella del dominio biologico.

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Interdisciplinitis: Do entropic forces cause adaptive behavior?

Interdisciplinitis: Do entropic forces cause adaptive behavior? | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Physicists are notorious for infecting other disciplines. Sometimes this can be extremely rewarding, but most of the time it is silly. I've already featured an example where one of the founders of ...
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Andreas Hüttemann, Explanation, Emergence and Quantum-Entanglement - PhilPapers

Andreas Hüttemann, Explanation, Emergence and Quantum-Entanglement - PhilPapers | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
This paper tries to get a grip on two seemingly conflicting intuitions about reductionism in quantum mechanics. On the one hand it is received wisdom that quantum mechanics puts an end to ‘reductionism’. Quantum-entanglement is responsible for such features of quantum mechanics as holism, the failure of supervenience and emergence. While I agree with these claims I will argue that it is only part of the story. Quantum mechanics provides us with thorough-going reductionist explanations. I will distinguish two kinds of micro-explanation (or micro-‘reduction’). I will argue that even though quantum-entanglement provides an example for the failure of one kind of micro-explanation it does not affect the other. Contrary to a recent paper by Kronz and Tiehen I claim that the explanation of the dynamics of quantum mechanical systems is just as reductionist as it used to be in classical mechanics.
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Rethinking Economics Using Complexity Theory

In this paper we argue that if we want to find a more satisfactory
approach to tackling the major socio-economic problems we are facing,
we need to thoroughly rethink the basic assumptions of
macroeconomics and financial theory. Making minor modifications to
the standard models to remove “imperfections” is not enough, the
whole framework needs to be revisited.
Let us here enumerate some of the standard assumptions and postulates of economic theory.
1. An economy is an equilibrium system. In other words, it is a
system in which all markets systematically clear at each point of
time, but where the equilibrium may be perturbed, from time to
time by exogenous shocks.
2. Selfish or greedy behaviour of individuals yields a result that is
beneficial to society – a modern, widespread, but inaccurate
reformulation of the principle of the “invisible hand”.
3. Individuals and companies decide rationally. By this it is meant
that individuals optimize under the constraints they are facing
and that their choices satisfy some standard consistency axioms.
4. The behaviour of all the agents together can be treated as

corresponding to that of an average or representative individual.
5. When the financial sector is analysed, it is assumed that financial
markets are efficient. Efficiency here means that all the relevant
information concerning an asset is reflected by the price of that
asset.
6. Forfinancial markets it is assumed that they function better if
their liquidity is greater.
7. In financial markets, the more connected the network of
individuals and institutions the more it reduces risks and the
more stable and robust is the system.
Below, we discuss the fundamental problems with these assumptions
and outline some of the policy implications of improved assumptions.


Via Complexity Digest
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ComplexInsight's curator insight, April 26, 2013 2:16 AM

One for some travel-time reading.

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Review of Natural-Born Cyborgs

Review of Natural-Born Cyborgs | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

A cyborg, or "cybernetic organism", was initially defined as follows: "The Cyborg deliberately incorporates exogenous components extending the self-regulating control function of the organism in order to adapt it to new environments." This verbose sentence can be simplified to, the cyborg represents "a notion of human-machine merging".  

This concept, dear to science fiction writers, is all about humans becoming stronger, faster, and more powerful through the use of integrated technology. One example of this is the cochlear implants used to help deaf people hear again; these implants are more than hearing aids, since they interface directly with nerve endings. Another example is prosthetics, which allow people who have lost limbs in accidents to function almost as before. 

Andy Clark, a cognitive scientist, sets out to recount why, in his eyes, "we shall be cyborgs not in the merely superficial sense of combining flesh and wires but in the more profound sense of being human-technology symbionts: thinking and reasoning systems whose minds and selves are spread across biological brain and nonbiological circuitry." This is quite a statement, if you look at it closely: he is suggesting that the systems we will incorporate into our bodies will be thinking systems, that they will merge with our minds, and that they will be come self-aware. 


Via Marie-Anne Paveau
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luiy's curator insight, June 26, 2013 12:20 PM


A cyborg, or "cybernetic organism", was initially defined as follows: "The Cyborg deliberately incorporates exogenous components extending the self-regulating control function of the organism in order to adapt it to new environments." This verbose sentence can be simplified to, the cyborg represents "a notion of human-machine merging".  

 

This concept, dear to science fiction writers, is all about humans becoming stronger, faster, and more powerful through the use of integrated technology. One example of this is the cochlear implants used to help deaf people hear again; these implants are more than hearing aids, since they interface directly with nerve endings. Another example is prosthetics, which allow people who have lost limbs in accidents to function almost as before. 

 

Andy Clark, a cognitive scientist, sets out to recount why, in his eyes, "we shall be cyborgs not in the merely superficial sense of combining flesh and wires but in the more profound sense of being human-technology symbionts: thinking and reasoning systems whose minds and selves are spread across biological brain and nonbiological circuitry." This is quite a statement, if you look at it closely: he is suggesting that the systems we will incorporate into our bodies will be thinking systems, that they will merge with our minds, and that they will be come self-aware. 

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Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets

This paper investigates collective denial and willful blindness in groups, organizations and markets. Agents with anticipatory preferences, linked through an interaction structure, choose how to interpret and recall public signals about future prospects. Wishful thinking (denial of bad news) is shown to be contagious when it is harmful to others, and self-limiting when it is beneficial. Similarly, with Kreps-Porteus preferences, willful blindness (information avoidance) spreads when it increases the risks borne by others. This general mechanism can generate multiple social cognitions of reality, and in hierarchies it implies that realism and delusion will trickle down from the leaders. The welfare analysis differentiates group morale from groupthink and identifies a fundamental tension in organizations' attitudes toward dissent. Contagious exuberance can also seize asset markets, generating investment frenzies and crashes.

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Wie trifft man gute Entscheidungen? Ratio versus Intuition … | Initiative Wirtschaftsdemokratie

Wie trifft man gute Entscheidungen? Ratio versus Intuition … | Initiative Wirtschaftsdemokratie | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Che cosa è l'intuizione? Secondo G. Gigerenzer è la conoscenza percepita, che è un sistema molto veloce che emerge a livello cosciente, ma le ragioni del perchè  non sono al livello di consapevolezza, non si è in grado di esprimere a parole quanto percepito e elaborato dal nostro cervello Questo tipo di conoscenza e di fatto la più vasta e ricca del nostro cervello. Quindi, se non si ascolta la propria intuizione, non si utilizza la maggior parte del nostro cervello. L'intuizione non è un sesto senso, e nessuna ispirazione divina. L'intuizione funziona su un bagaglio di esperienza, di processi di ragionamento rapir e immediati, semplici, basati su euristiche, e consente di concentrarsi sull'essenziale e ignorare il resto.

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Recovery of cortical effective connectivity and recovery of consciousness in vegetative patients

Patients surviving severe brain injury may regain consciousness without recovering their ability to understand, move and communicate. Recently, electrophysiological and neuroimaging approaches, employing simple sensory stimulations or verbal commands, have proven useful in detecting higher order processing and, in some cases, in establishing some degree of communication in brain-injured subjects with severe impairment of motor function. To complement these approaches, it would be useful to develop methods to detect recovery of consciousness in ways that do not depend on the integrity of sensory pathways or on the subject's ability to comprehend or carry out instructions. As suggested by theoretical and experimental work, a key requirement for consciousness is that multiple, specialized cortical areas can engage in rapid causal interactions (effective connectivity). Here, we employ transcranial magnetic stimulation together with high-density electroencephalography to evaluate effective connectivity at the bedside of severely brain injured, non-communicating subjects. In patients in a vegetative state, who were open-eyed, behaviourally awake but unresponsive, transcranial magnetic stimulation triggered a simple, local response indicating a breakdown of effective connectivity, similar to the one previously observed in unconscious sleeping or anaesthetized subjects. In contrast, in minimally conscious patients, who showed fluctuating signs of non-reflexive behaviour, transcranial magnetic stimulation invariably triggered complex activations that sequentially involved distant cortical areas ipsi- and contralateral to the site of stimulation, similar to activations we recorded in locked-in, conscious patients. Longitudinal measurements performed in patients who gradually recovered consciousness revealed that this clear-cut change in effective connectivity could occur at an early stage, before reliable communication was established with the subject and before the spontaneous electroencephalogram showed significant modifications. Measurements of effective connectivity by means of transcranial magnetic stimulation combined with electroencephalography can be performed at the bedside while by-passing subcortical afferent and efferent pathways, and without requiring active participation of subjects or language comprehension; hence, they offer an effective way to detect and track recovery of consciousness in brain-injured patients who are unable to exchange information with the external environment.

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Indispensabili: Blue Economy – Cap.1) RISORSE ETERNE PER LE SFIDE DEL NOSTRO TEMPO

Indispensabili: Blue Economy – Cap.1) RISORSE ETERNE PER LE SFIDE DEL NOSTRO TEMPO | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Il link  degli estratti di questo libro di Gunter Paoli, che tratta di un tema di portata epocale, e cioè la riforma del nostro modo di concepire l’ambiente, l’agricoltura, l’industria, i rifiuti in modo da far quadrare il cerchio di uno sviluppo sostenibile con il pianeta in cui ci ritroviamo a vivere. Modalità interessante di pensare anche nel campo delle neuroscienze applicate all'economia.

 

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Twitter and its impact IRL

Twitter and its impact IRL | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Here in the US, the Dow recently tumbled almost 150 points in a “flash crash” caused by widespread digital panic. What was the cause of this panic? Twitter.
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Probability judgment in hierarchical learning: a conflict between predictiveness and coherenc David A. Lagnado, David R. Shanks

Why are people’s judgments incoherent under probability formats? Research in an associative learning paradigm suggests that after structured learning participants give judgments based on predictiveness rather than normative probability. This is because people’s learning mechanisms attune to statistical contingencies in the environment, and they use these learned associations as a basis for subsequent probability judgments. We introduced a hierarchical structure into a simulated medical diagnosis task, setting up a conflict between predictiveness and coherence. Thus, a target symptom was more predictive of a subordinate disease than of its superordinate category, even though the latter included the former. Under a probability format participants tended to violate coherence and make ratings in line with predictiveness; under a frequency format they were more normative. These results are difficult to explain within a unitary model of inference, whether associative or frequency-based. In the light of this, and other findings in the judgment and learning
literature, a dual-component model is proposed.

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The Cynefin Framework and emotional intelligence

The Cynefin Framework and emotional intelligence | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Il Quadro Cynefin e intelligenza emotiva Frequentando un seminario molto stimolante con Robert Dilts su «Leadership in tempi di incertezza» a Bruxelles questo fine settimana, alcune analogie sono emersevcon il quadro Cynefin di Dave Snowden ( presentato in precedenza ). Prendendo come base « Revised Leadership Table » di D. Snowden,  alcune riflessioni circa ulteriori dimensioni di leadership.
Via Philippe Vallat
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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 29, 2013 7:37 AM

Feedbacks, comments, thoughts, suggestions are welcome!

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An Epistemology of Contingency: chance and determinism at the origin of life

An Epistemology of Contingency: chance and determinism at the origin of life | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
 
In this article we provide an epistemological analysis of three uses of the concept of contingency in biology. On the basis of this analysis we propose a heuristic solution to the issue of contingency versus determinism in the domain of studies on the origin of life, which makes itpossible to approach this problem from a scientific point of view rather than by recurring to belief.
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Risk aversion is not irrational - Evolving Economics

Risk aversion is not irrational - Evolving Economics | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
[C]onsider one of the main experiments that behavioralists Kahneman and Amos Tversky use as evidence for the limitations of perfect rationality as a behavioral premise. They offer their subjects two options: Option A is a “sure thing,” carrying a payoff of, say, $800. Option B is a gamble with an expected payoff of $850: The subjects have an 85-percent chance of receiving $1,000 and a 15-percent chance of getting nothing. The behavioralists report that a “large majority” of subjects choose Option A, in spite of its having an expected value $50 lower than Option B. According to behavioralists, this majority choice demonstrates a form of “bounded rationality.” In other words, the subjects’ rational decision making is impaired by mental constraints on information processing and calculating capacity, not the least of which is risk aversion (with risk aversion evident in people heavily favoring Option A).
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Physicist Proposes New Way To Think About Intelligence | Inside Science

Physicist Proposes New Way To Think About Intelligence | Inside Science | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

SFI Research Fellow Simon DeDeo comments on a recent paper in Physical Review Letters that proffers a mathematical explanation for intelligent behavior based on entropy.

The paper "is basically an attempt to describe intelligence as a fundamentally thermodynamic process," connected mathematically to entropy says the paper's lead author, Alexander Wissner-Gross of Harvard and MIT. It suggests that intelligent behavior stems from the impulse to seize control of future events in the environment.

"It's a provocative paper," says DeDeo. "To me [the research] seems like a really authentic and honest attempt to wrestle with really big questions."

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Between holism and reductionism: a philosophical primer on emergence

Ever since Darwin a great deal of the conceptual history of biology may be read as a struggle between two philosophical positions: reductionism and holism. On the one hand, we have the reductionist claim that evolution has to be understood in terms of changes at the fundamental causal level of the gene. As Richard Dawkins famously put it, organisms are just ‘lumbering robots’ in the service of their genetic masters. On the other hand, there is a long holistic tradition that focuses on the complexity of developmental systems, on the non-linearity of gene– environment interactions, and on multi-level selective processes to argue that the full story of biology is a bit more complicated than that. Reductionism can marshal on its behalf the spectacular successes of genetics and molecular biology throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. Holism has built on the development of entirely new disciplines and conceptual frameworks over the past few decades, including evo-devo and phenotypic plasticity. Yet, a number of biologists are still actively looking for a way out of the reductionism–holism counterposition, often mentioning the word ‘emergence’ as a way to deal with the conundrum. This paper briefly examines the philosophical history of the concept of emergence, distinguishes between epistemic and ontological accounts of it, and comments on conceptions of emergence that can actually be useful for practising evolutionary biologists.

 

Between holism and reductionism: a philosophical primer on emergence
Massimo Pigliucci
Biological Journal of the Linnean Society (2013)

http://philpapers.org/rec/PIGBHA


Via Complexity Digest
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cerebster's curator insight, April 26, 2013 1:07 AM

It is important to understand emergence because it factors into discussions about control, knowledge, and free will, especially in neuroscience. It occupies a middle ground between prescribed rules and unpredictability. Now the task is to apply the concept productively to science.

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Moral Psychology: Empirical Approaches (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

Moral Psychology: Empirical Approaches (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy) | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Moral psychology investigates human functioning in moral contexts, and asks how these results may impact debate in ethical theory. This work is necessarily interdisciplinary, drawing on both the empirical resources of the human sciences and the conceptual resources of philosophical ethics. The present article discusses several topics that illustrate this type of inquiry: thought experiments, responsibility, character, egoism v. altruism, and moral disagreement.

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Embodied Cognition (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

Cognition is embodied when it is deeply dependent upon features of the physical body of an agent, that is, when aspects of the agent's body beyond the brain play a significant causal or physically constitutive role in cognitive processing.

In general, dominant views in the philosophy of mind and cognitive science have considered the body as peripheral to understanding the nature of mind and cognition. Proponents of embodied cognitive science view this as a serious mistake. Sometimes the nature of the dependence of cognition on the body is quite unexpected, and suggests new ways of conceptualizing and exploring the mechanics of cognitive processing.

Embodied cognitive science encompasses a loose-knit family of research programs in the cognitive sciences that often share a commitment to critiquing and even replacing traditional approaches to cognition and cognitive processing. Empirical research on embodied cognition has exploded in the past 10 years. As the bibliography for this article attests, the various bodies of work that will be discussed represent a serious alternative to the investigation of cognitive phenomena.

Relatively recent work on the embodiment of cognition provides much food for thought for empirically-informed philosophers of mind. This is in part because of the rich range of phenomena that embodied cognitive science has studied. But it is also in part because those phenomena are often thought to challenge dominant views of the mind, such as the computational and representational theories of mind, at the heart of traditional cognitive science. And they have sometimes been taken to undermine standard positions in the philosophy of mind, such as the idea that the mind is identical to, or even realized in, the brain.

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The Top 11 Reasons You Ignore Your Intuition | Powered by Intuition

The Top 11 Reasons You Ignore Your Intuition | Powered by Intuition | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
The 11 reasons your ignore your intuition cause you problems. If you ignore your intuition often you make mistakes. Listen to intuition and find success in life.
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