Bounded Rationality and Beyond
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Collective Intelligence: Humanity’s Mass Mind

Collective Intelligence: Humanity’s Mass Mind | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

"BRAIN, Behaviorally Robust Aggregation of Information in Networks), created by Hewlett Packard, is a fascinating example of collective intelligence. According to the creators, “Existing processes tend to be either too data-driven, and therefore lacking the perspective of human insight, or too ad hoc, and therefore inconsistent with the data. “

BRAIN was developed to gain more accurate information for prediction markets using data side-by-side with team surveys. It’s worked for HP, and other companies, such as IBM and Ford, have implemented prediction markets as well."


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Bounded Rationality and Beyond
News on the effects of bounded rationality in economics and business, relationships and politics
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How does 'complexity thinking' improve our understanding of politics and
policymaking?

It is customary to describe complexity theory as new, exciting, and interdisciplinary. Its advocates suggest that it offers a new way of seeing the world, a scientific paradigm to replace ‘reductionism’, a way for many academic disciplines to use the same language to explain key processes, and the potential for an impressively broad and rich empirical base. Robert Geyer and I explore these themes in the introduction and conclusion to our edited Handbook on Complexity and Public Policy. In this short discussion, I present a more critical discussion of these high expectations, examining how they translate into something new for political and policy science, and asking: what does complexity theory offer policy studies? I suggest that its focus on greater interdisciplinarity is potentially misleading, that its theoretical appeal may be more about conceptual consolidation than novelty, and that it may take some time to demonstrate its empirical value in relation to more established theories. We can use this discussion to draw parallels between the study of policy and legal processes.
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Mathematical Reasoning And Heuristics:  C. Cellucci, D. Gillies

Mathematical Reasoning And Heuristics:  C. Cellucci, D. Gillies | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

This volume is a collection of papers on philosophy of mathematics which deal with a series of questions quite different from those which occupied the minds of the proponents of the three classic schools: logicism, formalism, and intuitionism. The questions of the volume are not to do with justification in the traditional sense, but with a variety of other topics. Some are concerned with discovery and the growth of mathematics. How does the semantics of mathematics change as the subject develops? What heuristics are involved in mathematical discovery, and do such heuristics constitute a logic of mathematical discovery? What new problems have been introduced by the development of mathematics since the 1930s? Other questions are concerned with the applications of mathematics both to physics and to the new field of computer science. Then there is the new question of whether the axiomatic method is really so essential to mathematics as is often supposed, and the question, which goes back to Wittgenstein, of the sense in which mathematical proofs are compelling. Taking these questions together they give part of an emerging agenda which is likely to carry philosophy of mathematics forward into the twenty first century.

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Psicodemocrazia. Quanto l'irrazionalità condiziona il discorso pubblico

Psicodemocrazia. Quanto l'irrazionalità condiziona il discorso pubblico | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Le più fini menti sociologiche tra fine ottocento e primo novecento, da Max Weber a Joseph Schumpeter, lo avevano compreso e ne avevano tratto le conseguenze: il cittadino informato e razionale immaginato dalla teoria democratica classica, colui che fa scelte politiche a ragion veduta, dopo avere considerato e soppesato le diverse alternative, non esiste. Poiché il cittadino-elettore è vittima del suo disinteresse per la cosa pubblica, della sua ignoranza e dei suoi stereotipi, spinto da passioni “calde” anziché da freddi ragionamenti, l’unico modo per salvare il salvabile degli ideali democratici era, per quelle menti, ridefinire in chiave realistica la teoria della democrazia: la democrazia altro non era, né poteva essere, che il luogo del confronto e della competizione fra élites impegnate a disputarsi il voto di elettori su cui il richiamo emozionale fa normalmente più presa delle proposte e dei ragionamenti programmatici. Le ricerche empiriche sugli atteggiamenti e i comportamenti degli elettori condotte dai politologi statunitensi a partire dagli anni venti/trenta e in seguito anche dai politologi europei diedero nuova linfa, offrirono le indispensabili pezze d’appoggio a quei teorici – da Robert Dahl a Giovanni Sartori, da Raymond Aron a Norberto Bobbio – che scelsero di continuare l’opera dei fondatori della teoria realistica della democrazia.
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Policy Concepts in 1000 Words: Bounded Rationality and Incrementalism

Policy Concepts in 1000 Words: Bounded Rationality and Incrementalism | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

A classic starting point in policy studies is to compare ideal-types (which might be ideals to aspire to) with the real world. The classic example is comprehensive (or synoptic) rationality. The idea is that elected policymakers translate their values into policy in a straightforward manner. They have a clear, coherent and rank-ordered set of policy preferences which neutral organizations carry out on their behalf. We can separate policymaker values from organizational facts. There are clear-cut and ordered stages to the process (aims are identified, the means to achieve those aims are produced and one is selected) and analysis of the policymaking context is comprehensive. This allows policymakers to maximize the benefits of policy to society in much the same way that an individual maximizes her own utility.

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The Behavioral Insights Team 5 Years On: A Conversation with Owain Service - The Psych Report

The Behavioral Insights Team 5 Years On: A Conversation with Owain Service - The Psych Report | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

It’s hard to overestimate the changes to policy creation and implementation the Behavioral Insight Team's work has catalyzed.

“Nudge, nudge, wink wink” read one headline when the UK’s Behavioral Insights Team or ‘Nudge Unit’ announced the results of their first year’s work in 2011. The Monty Python reference, far from the only time it was used, revealed that many viewed the newly established team tasked with bringing behavioral science into public policy as something far less than a serious approach to government. Today, however, nearly 200 randomized control trials later and with their findings permeating virtually all areas of public policy—including job assistance, organ donation, and tax collection—the creation of the BIT and the wedding of behavioral science and public policy might seem like forgone conclusions. But hindsight is twenty-twenty, and it’s hard to overestimate the changes to policy creation and implementation the BIT’s work has catalyzed. No better evidenced than by the fact that since its launch in 2010, the United States, Canada, Australia and many others have established their own behavioral science units using the BIT as a model. We recently spoke with BIT Managing Director Owain Service, who’s been with the team since its start, to better understand the BIT’s path-breaking course over the past five years and find out where they’re headed next.

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I più intolleranti vincono sempre: la dittatura della minoranza

La regola della minoranza ci mostrerà come tutto ciò che occorre sia un numero esiguo di persone virtuose e intolleranti con degli interessi in gioco, sotto forma di coraggio, perché la società funzioni adeguatamente.
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Emergence, Computation and the Freedom Degree Loss Information Principle in Complex Systems

Abstract We consider processes of emergence within the conceptual framework of the Information Loss principle and the concepts of (1) systems conserving information; (2) systems compressing information; and (3) systems amplifying information. We deal with the supposed incompatibility between emergence and computability tout-court. We distinguish between computational emergence, when computation acquires properties, and emergent computation, when computation emerges as a property. The focus is on emergence processes occurring within computational processes. Violations of Turing-computability such as non-explicitness and incompleteness are intended to represent partially the properties of phenomenological emergence, such as logical openness, given by the observer’s cognitive role; structural dynamics where change regards rules rather than only values; and multi-modelling where multiple non-equivalent models are required to model such structural dynamics. In this way, we validate, from an epistemological viewpoint, models and simulations of phenomenological emergence where the sequence of events constitutes the natural, analogical non-Turing computation which a cognitive complex system can reproduce through learning. Reproducibility through learning is different from Turing-like computational iteration. This paper aims to open a new, non-reductionist understanding of the conceptual relationship between emergence and computability.

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The moral roots of liberals and conservatives

The moral roots of liberals and conservatives | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Psychologist Jonathan Haidt studies the five moral values that form the basis of our political choices, whether we're left, right or center. In this eye-opening talk, he pinpoints the moral values that liberals and conservatives tend to honor most.
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Psicologia politica: le basi cognitive delle scelte di voto

Psicologia politica: le basi cognitive delle scelte di voto | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
La psicologia politica studia le basi cognitive del comportamento di voto basandosi sul costrutto dell’atteggiamento come organizzatore della conoscenza.
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Cervelli politici

Cervelli politici | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Da qualche anno le neuroscienze hanno cominciato a osservare la politica, o meglio hanno continuato a osservare cervelli considerandone caratteristiche e attività, e connettendole con gli orientamenti politici dei proprietari dei cervelli medesimi. Gli studi sono agli inizi e non è ancora ben chiaro se le strutture cerebrali che mediano gli orientamenti politici ne siano la causa o l’effetto. È anche possibile che questo sia uno dei tanti casi di coevoluzione (il fenomeno A alimenta il fenomeno B, che a sua volta accresce il fenomeno A, e così via). Comunque, vi invito sia a premettere un ideale “sembra che…” alle affermazioni che leggete in seguito, anche se sono tutte state pubblicate su riviste di ottima reputazione, sia a trarre qualche conclusione provvisoria sì, ma suggestiva.

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Dimenticare le cose è sinonimo di intelligenza: i risultati della ricerca | Scienze Notizie

Dimenticare le cose è sinonimo di intelligenza: i risultati della ricerca | Scienze Notizie | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Dimenticare è il frutto di un processo del tutto normale attraverso il quale il cervello riesce ad apprendere. Coloro che sono più propensi a cancellare dalla propria mente determinati elementi, secondo la ricerca, sono anche più propensi alla flessibilità. Secondo i ricercatori il cervello di questi individui non si “fissa”, in maniera rigida, a quello che si è già appreso, ma si adatta di volta in volta, alle nuove cose imparate, agendo di conseguenza. In sostanza, secondo Edwin Robertson, l’autore dello studio, dimenticare è il primo passo per imparare.
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Winter School on Bounded Rationality in India, January 9-15, 2017 - Decision Science News

Winter School on Bounded Rationality in India, January 9-15, 2017 - Decision Science News | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

The T A Pai Management Institute (TAPMI) in collaboration with the Max Planck Institute for Human Development (MPIB) is excited to announce the Winter School on Bounded Rationality at TAPMI, Manipal (Karnataka), India to be held from January 09–15, 2017. The winter school aims to foster understanding the process and quality of human decisions and to apply this knowledge to the real world, enabling people to make better decisions in a complex world. To this end, it offers a unique forum for decision-making scholars and researchers from various disciplines to share their approaches, discuss their research and applications, and inspire each other. KEYNOTE ADDRESS Gerd Gigerenzer Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition and the Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Germany. TOPICS The winter school shall focus on diverse set of topics: Bounded Rationality, Ecological Rationality, Social Rationality Behavioral Economics and Finance Heuristics Fast and Frugal Trees Risk and Risk Literacy Medical Decision Making Seminars, talks, panel discussions, workshops, poster sessions, and social events will take place, allowing participants to learn and develop new ideas in broad areas of Judgment and Decision Making, facilitated by frequent interactions with the teaching faculty members. APPLICATION Deadline for Application is September 25 2016. Participation will be free, accommodation will be provided, and travel expenses will be partly reimbursed. Winter School web link (includes contact details and application procedure): For further questions email us at winterschool@tapmi.edu.in We look forward to seeing you at Manipal!

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Gene–culture interaction and the evolution of the human sense of fairness

Gene–culture interaction and the evolution of the human sense of fairness | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

How Darwinian evolution would produce creatures with the proclivity of Darwinian generosity, most of them voluntarily giving up the immediate benefit for themselves or their genes, remains a puzzle. This study targets a problem, the origin of human sense of fairness, and uses fairness-related genes and the social manipulation of Darwinian generosity as the key variables underlying the human sense of fairness, inequity aversion, as well as their relationships within cooperation, and the anticipation foresight of the way relationships are affected by resource division, given the assumption of randomly matched partners. Here we suggest a model in which phenotype will gradually converge towards the perfect sense of fairness along with the prospect of cooperation. Later, the sense of fairness will decrease but it is never extinct. Where social manipulation of Darwinian generosity overshadows genetics, the sense of fairness could be acute to the degree of social manipulation. Above all, there still exists a threshold in the degree of social manipulation, beyond which altruism dominates selfishness in human cooperation. Finally, we propose three new directions toward more realistic scenarios stimulated by recent development of the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory.

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Paul Cairney: Complexity Theory & Complex Adaptive Systems

Paul Cairney: Complexity Theory & Complex Adaptive Systems | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Paul Cairney’s talk at the CIPFA conference in Dundee raised some interesting questions around national policy making and the lack of an effective holistic understanding of the system in the UK. The Professor of Politics and Public Policy at the University of Stirling believes, that more power should be given to local authorities in order to better tackle complex and ever-changing problems. I believe this to be very relevant to the user-centric philosophy of service design. Making the local authorities more responsible for solving the problems at hand could increase the speed and efficiency of policy making the same way involving users can increase an efficiency of a service better than centralised decisions made by high management.

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Nudging, l'economia comportamentale che insegna a vivere meglio

Nudging, l'economia comportamentale che insegna a vivere meglio | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Si chiama Nudging ed è la nuova strategia di "economia comportamentale" che spinge le persone a fare le scelte giuste per migliorare il benessere personale e quello del Paese. Secondo uno studio di Mark Whitehehad, geografo dell'Aberystwyth University, sono più di 130 le nazioni che la applicano. In italiano Nudging può essere tradotto come "la spinta gentile" verso la salute. Il giornale The Thelegraph la riassume come: "A new way of thinking" (ndr. un nuovo modo di camminare). L'idea di fondo è cambiare l'architettura del contesto, entrando nei piani educativi degli stati e nelle strategie di marketing delle aziende, indirizzando le persone a fare la cosa migliore in termini di istruzione, sanità e risparmio energetico. L'immagine più rappresentativa è quella di un animale adulto che dà leggeri colpi al suo cucciolo per farlo camminare meglio. L'approccio è tutt'altro che casuale. "Ci sono dei criteri scientifici che si fondano su evidenze empiriche - spiega Paolo Moderato, docente di Psicologia Generale presso la Iulm di Milano e fondatore di Nudge Italia - si agisce sui contesti per favorire i comportamenti virtuosi". E anche Daniel Kahmeman, nel suo libro "Thinking fast and slow" parla di blas cognitivi, cioè di errori sistematici commessi in determinate condizioni e contesti e che influenzano le scelte degli individui. Ed è proprio agendo su questi blas che possono essere osservati, e soprattutto prevenuti, gli effetti sul comportamento. Anche in Italia il fenomeno si sta rapidamente diffondendo come dimostra un'indagine promossa dall'agenzia di comunicazione Found! attraverso l'analisi si 200 testate internazionali e 1200 siti internet.
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Come scoraggiare l'uso dello smartphone mentre si guida - Wired

Come scoraggiare l'uso dello smartphone mentre si guida - Wired | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Sequestri e analisi come a Torino o nudging come in Giappone? Al centro della dipendenza rimane la nostra oscura paura di rimanere tagliati fuori dallo show personale
Perché non ce la facciamo a sganciarci dallo smartphone mentre guidiamo? È davvero una di quelle situazioni del tutto surreali in termini di costi-benefici: possiamo uccidere, ucciderci e procurare enormi danni materiali alla nostra auto e ai mezzi degli altri. Eppure quel controllo compulsivo che ruota intorno a quelle tre o quattro applicazioni, e che ha ormai tutti i caratteri della dipendenza anche quando qualcuno la traveste da necessità “di lavoro”, ci sembra impossibile da interrompere. Due casi, in questi giorni, sembrano proporre altrettante strade diametralmente opposte di affrontare il dramma. Perché di questo si tratta quando la Polizia stradale racconta di oltre 30mila multe per guida col cellulare dallo scorso gennaio, il 26,6% in più rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2015. Da una parte c’è la formula Torino. Nel capoluogo piemontese la polizia municipale sta diventando caso di studio. Per la prima volta, su incarico di un magistrato nel caso di un grave incidente, è stato sequestrato e messo sotto la lente l’intero ecosistema tecnologico del conducente sospettato di essere il responsabile del fatto.
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Power pose co-author: I do not believe that “power pose” effects are real.

Power pose co-author: I do not believe that “power pose” effects are real. | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
In light of considerable evidence that there is no meaningful effect of power posing, Dana Carney, a co-author of the original article has come forth stating that she no longer believes in the effect. The statement is online here, but we record it as plain text below, for posterity. ###BEGIN QUOTE### My position on “Power Poses” Regarding: Carney, Cuddy & Yap (2010). Reasonable people, whom I respect, may disagree. However since early 2015 the evidence has been mounting suggesting there is unlikely any embodied effect of nonverbal expansiveness (vs. contractiveness)—i.e.., “power poses” — on internal or psychological outcomes. .
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Biforcare alla radice. Su alcuni disagi dell’accelerazione - di Sara Baranzoni e Paolo Vignola

Biforcare alla radice. Su alcuni disagi dell’accelerazione - di Sara Baranzoni e Paolo Vignola | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Pubblichiamo come terza lettura estiva di Effimera, un denso e importante saggio di Sara Baranzoni e Paolo Vignola tratto dal libro, a cura di Obsolete Capitalism, Moneta, rivoluzione, filosofia dell'avvenire. Nei tre anni che passano dalla pubblicazione nel 2013 del Manifesto per una politica accelerazionista ad oggi si è verificato un moltiplicarsi di saggi, conferenze e riferimenti filologici in favore o contro l’ipotesi tracciata da Srnicek e Williams – i quali hanno infine pubblicato un libro, Inventing the Future, in cui le loro tesi politiche vengono espresse più ampiamente. Dal punto di vista filosofico, comunque, già il Manifesto ha avuto il merito di attrarre magneticamente a sé, non per forza come alleati, un folto insieme di autori inclini a ragionare sulle sorti dell’umanità al tempo della catastrofe capitalistica contemporanea. Due libri collettivi usciti nel 2014, in particolare, raccolgono una serie di riflessioni inaggirabili per chi volesse comprendere la posta in gioco teoretica e politica del dibattito sull’accelerazionismo: #Accelerate. The accelerationist reader, a cura di Avanessian e McKay, e per il pubblico italiano Gli algoritmi del Capitale, curato da Matteo Pasquinelli. Entrambi i volumi riportano integralmente il Manifesto di Srnicek e Williams, come una sorta di pietra focaia che con la sua scintilla permette di illuminare le pagine di alcuni grandi filosofi della seconda metà del Novecento, come Deleuze e Lyotard, nonché di due immensi predecessori: Marx e Nietzsche.
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Bias cognitivi, dalla psicologia al marketing

Bias cognitivi, dalla psicologia al marketing | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
I bias cognitivi guidano l’uomo nel decision making e anche nelle scelte d’acquisto. Per questo motivo il marketing ne fa ampio uso.
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Behavioural economics challenges traditional view of “homo economicus”

Behavioural economics challenges traditional view of “homo economicus” | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Once, behavioural economics was a fledgling challenge to traditional theories. Not any longer; it has matured into a growing field that tries to understand how psychology affects economic decisions. The tension between traditional and behavioural economics is centred on a fundamental issue of human behaviour. Economists have long built their discipline around a view of humans as rational actors who know how to maximize their own happiness – the “homo economicus,” or economic man. Supporters of behavioural economics say that, to the contrary, humans are anything but rational. They argue that a keener understanding of human motivations and incentives can sharpen economic models, improve policy decisions in government and business, and have a positive influence on enterprises as discrete as lunch choices, retirement savings or how companies engage with their customers. Critics of behavioural economics retort that it has sharply delineated limitations – and that its efforts to influence behaviour, sometimes known as nudges, aren’t as powerful as the field’s cheerleaders hope. Some question the propriety of this approach, whether it is government or business that’s doing the nudging. They also doubt proponents’ contentions that behavioural economics can make managers and companies more effective and that it will eventually subsume traditional economics.

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Le caratteristiche del candidato che influenzano gli elettori

Le caratteristiche del candidato che influenzano gli elettori | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Secondo diversi studi spesso sono caratteristiche apparentemente superficiali e giudizi immediati ad influenzare le decisioni degli elettori. Se domandassimo a un gruppo di amici statunitensi, che vivono in Iowa o nel New Hampshire, chi vogliono votare alle prossime elezioni presidenziali, tra Jeb Bush e Bernie Sanders, le risposte potrebbero essere non dissimili da queste: ‘Il più alto, quindi Jeb Bush!‘, oppure: ‘Bernie Sanders: ha una voce più profonda e il suo nome mi ricorda come ho chiamato da sempre il mio migliore amico!’ Per quanto queste affermazioni possano apparirci ridicole, non sono in realtà così diverse dalle modalità superficiali che il nostro cervello utilizza, talvolta, per prendere decisioni.

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Dave Pizarro: La strana politica del disgusto

Dave Pizarro: La strana politica del disgusto | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Che cosa ha a che fare il disgusto con il voto politico? Attrezzato con indagini ed esperimenti, lo psicologo David Pizarro dimostra la correlazione tra la sensibilità a disgusto -- foto di feci, un odore sgradevole -- e il conservatorismo morale e politico. (Filmato a TEDxEast.)
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Reinhard Selten, Game Theorist Who Won Nobel Prize, Dies at 85

Reinhard Selten, Game Theorist Who Won Nobel Prize, Dies at 85 | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Reinhard Selten, the German economist and mathematician who won the 1994 Nobel Prize for his work on game theory, has died. He was 85. Selten died on Aug. 23 in the Polish city of Poznan, according to a statement Thursday by the University of Bonn, where he was until recently still active in research. Reinhard Selten Reinhard Selten Soruce: ullstein bild via Getty Images Germany’s only Nobel laureate in the field of economic sciences, Selten shared the prize with John F. Nash Jr. of Princeton University and John C. Harsanyi of the University of California, Berkeley, both of whom developed concepts to explain human behavior through game theory. Applied to fields as diverse as international relations, business-negotiation standoffs and biology, game theory attempts to predict human action based on the conflicting strategies of different parties. The academic study focuses largely on experimental methodology that requires participants to respond to various sets of circumstances in real-world situations, such as wars and political stalemates. “Predicting human actions is also a goal of game theory, but it is more the question of, what would rational players do in a game?” Selten said in a 2004 interview with journalist Marika Griehsel.

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Networks: An Economic Perspective

We discuss social network analysis from the perspective of economics. We organize the presentaion around the theme of externalities: the effects that one's behavior has on others' well-being. Externalities underlie the interdependencies that make networks interesting. We discuss network formation, as well as interactions between peoples' behaviors within a given network, and the implications in a variety of settings. Finally, we highlight some empirical challenges inherent in the statistical analysis of network-based data.
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Surprise! Cialdini Adds 7th Principle, Unity

Surprise! Cialdini Adds 7th Principle, Unity | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Robert Cialdini's six principles of influence have been memorized by marketers for 30 years. Now, he has added a seventh - Unity.Two years ago, I spoke to Dr. Robert Cialdini, the “godfather” of persuasion science and the creator of the celebrated Six Principles of Influence. I asked him if, thirty years after completing his seminal book, Influence, he’d add on another one or two. He declined, saying that while there were many influence techniques, the important ones mostly fit into his original six. (Check out our 2014 conversation for some great persuasion insights.) robert cialdiniNow, things have changed. Cialdini has written a new, major book, Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade. In it, he acknowledges that one more influence technique rises to the level of being a major principle. He writes,

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