Humans exhibit a suite of biases when making economic decisions. We review recent research on the origins of human decision making by examining whether similar choice biases are seen in nonhuman primates, our closest phylogenetic relatives. We propose that comparative studies can provide insight into four major questions about the nature of human choice biases that cannot be addressed by studies of our species alone. First, research with other primates can address the evolution of human choice biases and identify shared versus human-unique tendencies in decision making. Second, primate studies can constrain hypotheses about the psychological mechanisms underlying such biases. Third, comparisons of closely related species can identify when distinct mechanisms underlie related biases by examining evolutionary dissociations in choice strategies. Finally, comparative work can provide insight into the biological rationality of economically irrational preferences.
(Vote Leave supporters wait for London Mayor Boris Johnson to address campaigners during a rally for the 'Vote Leave' campaign on April 15, 2016 in Manchester, England. Boris Johnson is taking part in a 48 hour 'Brexit Blitz' of campaigning in Northern England. Britain will vote either to leave or remain in the EU in a referendum on June 23.Christopher Furlong/Getty) Much of economic theory is built on the assumption that individuals are rational. They act out of self-interest, they run cost-benefit analyses, they don’t make mistakes. If they’re deciding whether or not they want something, they figure out what it will cost and how happy they’ll be if they have it, and they act — or vote — accordingly. Of course, people in the real world don’t quite work like that. The upcoming Brexit vote is a good example of individuals diverging from this kind of purely rational behavior, according to Richard Thaler, a behavioral economist at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. The British citizens who are campaigning to leave the EU aren’t acting or thinking the way traditional economics would expect them to.
Abstract: Colors can carry specific meaning and have an important influence on people’s feelings, thoughts and behaviors. This paper investigates the impact of blue versus red on how consumers process information in food choice. Results show color indeed influences consumer information processing and feature evaluation. Specifically, consumers spend more time and pay more attention to choice tasks in the red condition than in the blue condition. In addition, consumers are willing to pay more premium for certain feature on the red label than on the blue label.
In a 1997 U.S. News and World Report survey, 1,000 Americans were asked: “Who do you think is most likely to get into heaven?” According to respondents, then-president Bill Clinton had a 52 percent chance; basketball star Michael Jordan had a 65 percent chance; and Mother Teresa had a 79 percent chance. Guess who topped even Mother Teresa? The people who completed the survey, with a score of 87 percent. As the results of this survey suggest, most of us have a strong desire to view ourselves in a positive light, especially when it comes to honesty. We care very much about being moral. In fact, psychological research on morality shows that we hold an overly optimistic view of our capacity to adhere to ethical standards. We believe that we are intrinsically more moral than others, that we will behave more ethically than others in the future and that transgressions committed by others are morally worse than our own. So, how do these beliefs of our moral selves play out in our day-to-day actions? As researchers who frequently study how people who care about morality often behave dishonestly, we decided to find out.
Un minidizionario di poco meno di venti voci per capire bene di che si tratta quando abbiamo a che fare con la complessità - e un poco anche cosa bisogna "farci". Tratto dal contributo di Paolo Cervari al libro Processo alla Complessità (a c.d. Giuseppe Sapienza, LetteredaQALAT) dal titolo "Saperci fare con la complessità: verso le pratiche" di cui abbiamo pubblicato l'introduzione nel N°100 di Caos Management, il Minidizionario procede a una o due voce per volta, pubblicate su vari numeri di Caos Management. Buona lettura.
Official Full-Text Publication: SOLUTIONS OF BRAIN CONTRADICTIONS Description We know neural networks can learn their weights and biases using the gradient descent algorithm unsupervised. The two main instruments to compute the weights and biases are the cost function and gradient descent algorithm with samples. In this paper we use a new method denoted projection method by which we can compute the weights and biases without cost function and descent gradient. The new method is denoted projection method. The new method check for neural…
What if people could only publish five papers before tenure? Some people hate this idea, but it might help with some problems.
There’s an article out in Science titled The Pressure to Publish Pushes Down Quality. The author’s point is that as the volume of papers goes up, the good ones get lost in the bad ones. There are other downsides as well. People waste a lot of time funding, writing, reviewing, editing, and reading lots of shoddy papers. The number of papers needed to get tenure keeps going up, which puts a lot of pressure on early-career academics. Lastly, when people have an incentive to publish a lot, they’re not encouraged to thoroughly review what’s come before. If they do, they may learn their idea is not all that new. This can prevent cumulative progress being made in science. As an aside, it’s hard to blame authors for not thoroughly reviewing the literature when so much junk has been published in the last decades.
Con il pensiero sempre rivolto a chi soffre, a chi è in difficoltà o è discriminato… La globalizzazione ha determinato un progressivo ridimensionamento della sfera della politica, lasciando aperto un vuoto in cui si sono inseriti i poteri economici...
Per quanto ci si possa sforzare di analizzare razionalmente i candidati, valutarli, così da scegliere il migliore, il voto sembra influenzato più dalle caratteristiche fisiche e comportamentali del candidato. Tali influenze sono legate a scorciatoie mentali utilizzate che utilizziamo per prendere decisioni. Secondo diversi studi infatti, spesso sono caratteristiche apparentemente superficiali e giudizi immediati ad influenzare le decisioni degli elettori. Le tre I degli elettori Daniel Oppenheimer, co-autore di ‘Democracy Despite Itself’, sostiene che ci sono tre ‘I’ che uniscono gli elettori: ignoranza, irrazionalità e incompetenza. Egli afferma che, come votanti, non riflettiamo sulle nostre convinzioni cardinali per poi cercare il candidato che meglio le soddisfa, piuttosto facciamo spesso il contrario: scegliamo il candidato che ci piace, sulla base di indizi molto soggettivi e superficiali, e, successivamente, plasmiamo le nostre convinzioni per soddisfare le nostre preferenze. La maggior parte delle persone non ha un’idea chiara dell’opinione dei candidati su molte questioni; ciò sta a significare che la corrispondenza degli ideali decantata non è spesso reale quanto supposta. Con questo non si vuole denunciare che i processi euristici di decisione sono necessariamente sbagliati, anzi, spesso portano a buoni esiti e sono espressione di un vantaggio evolutivo conquistato. ‘Solo che a volte non lo sono’ dice Oppenheimer.
La nostra mente è a dir poco meravigliosa. Ma a volte la poca consapevolezza di come funziona ci può creare dei problemi Vi siete mai resi conto (probabilmente più negli altri che in voi stessi – ma questo è normale) di strani errori di ragionamento? Magari avete anche pensato “ma questa persona non usa la logica!”. Distorsioni cognitive Forse potrebbe essere così, ma molto più probabilmente avete osservato delle distorsioni cognitive (cognitive bias). Queste distorsioni del pensiero avvengono in maniera inconsapevole e sono spesso il risultato del tentativo del nostro cervello di analizzare un grande numero di informazioni in poco tempo. Unito ovviamente ad influenze sociali e culturali. Sebbene le distorsioni cognitive siano generalmente inconsapevoli, se le conosciamo e cerchiamo di notarle quando le mettiamo in pratica, saremo in grado di prendere decisioni più efficienti e probabilmente potremmo anche argomentare in maniera più efficace le nostre tesi. In questo articolo ne vediamo insieme 5.
It’s the end of the E.U. as we know it, and markets are already having a very painful reaction to the news.
Foroohar is an assistant managing editor at TIME and the magazine’s economics columnist. She’s the author of Makers and Takers: The Rise of Finance and the Fall of American Business. It’s quite telling that the markets were only pricing in about a 25% chance that Britain would vote to leave the European Union. As studies have shown, there’s a larger trust gap than ever before between global elites and the mass populations in various countries. The fact that Wall Street so badly misinterpreted the desires of Main Street is, in some ways, no surprise. Markets have been terrible at predicting populism in the last few years, both in Europe and in the U.S.
Political campaigns of both Republican and Democratic candidates are taking Big Data lessons from retailers , gathering information about individuals, and using it to serve up personalized messages to prospective voters. It’s called “microtargeting,” and it was was a key element of the successful Obama for America campaign and its unprecedented fundraising. Direct marketers have…
If you are an academic, and you probably are if you read this blog, you may be interested in tools that improve writing. Recently, we stumbled upon the Hemingway Editor, a tool to encourage simple and forceful writing. It flags hard to read (i.e., long) sentences. It also flags adverbs, passive voice and unnecessarily complex phrases. We think that following all the editor’s advice would be a bad idea. Yet, using it for a few paragraphs on a paper reminds you to keep things simple. And it does, at least superficially, make you write more like Hemingway. For fun, we applied it to one of our own abstracts below. It went from 145 words with grade 18 readability to 119 words with grade 14 readability. You should beware, however, that readers may infer that simpler academic texts are of lower quality (Galak and Nelson, 2011).Here's a tool that encourages simple, forceful writing.
Raman Bhatia, the head of digital UK at HSBC, spoke to Business Insider about the app Nudge.
HSBC is developing a major new app called "Nudge" that aims to help people save money by keeping track of their everyday spending. The high-profile development was actually born out of a simple exercise between HSBC's new digital chief and his wife. "My wife used to leave Post-It notes on the fridge, nudging me not to eat the rest of the desserts in the fridge," said Raman Bhatia, head of digital UK at HSBC in an interview with Business Insider.
The NYPD Was Systematically Ticketing Legally Parked Cars for Millions of Dollars a Year- Open Data Just Put an End to It New York City is a complex place to drive. And when it comes to parkingNew York City is a complex place to drive. And when it comes to parking, there are plenty of rules and regulations to follow. It’s no wonder that sometimes people get confused and end up getting their cars ticketed or towed. But in all of these rules, there is one thing that very few drivers seem to know. As of late 2008, in NYC you can park in front of a sidewalk pedestrian ramp, as long as it’s not connected to a crosswalk. It’s all written up in the NYC Traffic Rules, and for more detail, take a look at this article. The local legislation making these parking spots legal was proposed by Council Member Gentile, and adopted by the Department of Transportation before it ever made it for a vote. Though few people seem to know about the change. Is it a problem that drivers don’t realize that there are some extra parking spots they are now allowed to park in? Not so much. But, I’ve got a pedestrian ramp leading to nowhere particular in the middle of my block in Brooklyn, and on occasion I have parked there. Despite the fact that it is legal, I’ve been ticketed for parking there. Though I get the tickets dismissed, it’s a waste of everybody’s time. And that got me wondering- How common is it for the police to give tickets to cars legally parked in front of pedestrian ramps? It couldn’t be just me… In the past, there was not much you could do to stop something like this. Complaining to your local precinct would at best only solve the problem locally. But thanks to NYC’s Open Data portal, I was able to look at the most common parking spots in the City where cars were ticketed for blocking pedestrian ramps. It’s worth taking a moment upfront here to praise the NYPD for offering this dataset to begin with. Though we are behind on police crime data in the city, we are ahead in other ways and the parking ticket dataset is definitely one of them.
When it comes to many of the big decisions faced by governments and the private sector, behavioral science has more to offer than simple nudges.
So-called “nudge units” are popping up in governments all around the world. The best-known examples include the U.K.’s Behavioural Insights Team, created in 2010, and the White House-based Social and Behavioral Sciences Team, introduced by the Obama administration in 2014. Their mission is to leverage findings from behavioral science so that people’s decisions can be nudged in the direction of their best intentions without curtailing their ability to make choices that don’t align with their priorities. Overall, these – and other – governments have made important strides when it comes to using behavioral science to nudge their constituents into better choices. Yet, the same governments have done little to improve their own decision-making processes. Consider big missteps like the Flint water crisis. How could officials in Michigan decide to place an essential service – safe water – and almost 100,000 people at risk in order to save US$100 per day for three months? No defensible decision-making process should have allowed this call to be made.
È una parola rubata alla tecnologia dei materiali. Per dirla in modo semplice, indica la capacità che un materiale ha assorbire e rilasciare l’energia (per esempio, un urto) che lo potrebbe deformare, tornando allo stato iniziale.
Due comitati di consulenza, uno sul lavoro e il welfare, l’altro sulla politica economica e fiscale. Dentro professori universitari, un ex ministro, un neuroeconomista, un’esperta di social network e uno stuolo di avvocati tributaristi.
Di modalità e criteri del decision-making clinico e di politica sanitaria si parlerà alla Riunione annuale 2016 della Associazione Alessandro Liberati – Network Italiano Cochrane che si svolgerà a Roma il 31 maggio. Il convegno farà il punto su due...
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