Bounded Rationality and Beyond
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Neuroscience May Help Us Understand Financial Bubbles

Neuroscience May Help Us Understand Financial Bubbles | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Five years on from Lehman Brothers' collapse and “where did it all go wrong?” analysis is all the rage. Answers have varied: poor regulation, malicious bankers, dozy politicians, greedy homeowners, and so on.

But what if the answer was in our minds? New research published in the journal Neuronsuggests that market bubbles are in fact driven by a biological impulse to try to predict how others behave.

Any analysis of the global financial crisis would be incomplete without a thorough understanding of the asset bubble that preceded it. In the run up to 2008, property prices hit dizzying levels, construction boomed and the stock market reached a record high.

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Bounded Rationality and Beyond
News on the effects of bounded rationality in economics and business, relationships and politics
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Law and Neuroscience by Owen D. Jones, Matthew R. Ginther :: SSRN

Law and Neuroscience by Owen D. Jones, Matthew R. Ginther :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: This encyclopedia entry discusses how the intersection of perennial legal questions and new neuroscientific advances has fueled the emergence of a new field: Law & Neuroscience. It provides an overview of issues, discussing both the promise and the limitations.

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Brief introduction to cognitive psychology applied to investigation and forensics

by Paola Giannetakis 

Behavior is the result of complexes mental processes that take place within our brain and it is clear that for the most we are not aware of such processes taking place, this implies a series of important considerations. The effects of these processes may produce a concrete impact on decisional processes that can influence dramatically the proceedings especially in high demand tasks and in specific professions. For example, we tend to believe to have control over the way we perceive the reality, we tend to overestimate the capability of memorizations of information. I will try to explain briefly a series of processes to highlight the limitation of human brain. We store information in our memory, what is working memory? Working memory is a cognitive system that maintains and elaborates information; it processes simultaneously both the incoming information and the retrieval of information. According to Baddeley, the working memory manipulates the information through three components: the phonological loop, the central executive and the visuospatial sketchpad. The visuospatial sketchpad (VS) holds visual and spatial information, this means that for example, the VS retains the information of how a word is written and where is spatially located but also is the place in which are retained and manipulated visual images. According to Shepard and Mezler, their experiment of comparing objects demonstrates how the VS is involved in the process of visual imagery; they presented four objects and asked to subjects to indicate whether these objects were the same or different objects, the subjects recognized the objects as being the same but rotated, this answer occurred in few second and they used the mental rotation function that is a function located within the visuospatial sketchpad’s function. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/brief-introduction-cognitive-psychology-applied-paola-giannetakis
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Behavioural Economics and
Complex Decision-Making
Implications for the Australian Tax and Transfer System

Individuals are faced with an increasingly complex arra y of decisions in their day to day lives. Economic growth and deregulation has greatly increased the c hoices available to people in Australia, as in other comparable countries. For example, where 30 years ago households had access to a single type of telephone connected to a single network, there are now a plet hora of technologies, companies and pricing packages. Similarly with financial and investment products , the number of choices has increased massively. Households now have access to many different types of mortgage and a great range of different ways in which they can invest their savings. While this increase in the range and diversity of choices undoubtedly brings many benefits, it does require people to make ever more complex decisions. For huma n decision-makers, particularly those with limited knowledge and experience, this can be a difficult t ask. At the same time individuals are increasingly responsible for their own finances, for example as personal superannuation replaces company pensions. With increased choice comes increased risk of costly error. Ma ny people feel there are too many choices and they do not have the knowledge required to make many of the decisions which are expected of them (Fear 2008; ASIC 2009). As people’s financial circumstances have become more co mplex, so too have their interactions with the tax and transfer system. To some extent there is an inevitable arms race between financial innovation and tax complexity. As new financial instruments emerge, including many specifically designed to minimise tax, tax law must also evolve to deal with them; and as tax la w changes, the finance sector is quick to respond with innovative products and strategies. This has resulted in a complex and continually changing tax and transfer system which may not be well suited to the vagaries of human decision-making. http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/html/commissioned_work/downloads/CSIRO_AFTS_Behavioural_economics_paper.pdf
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L'importanza dell'etica per il futuro della tecnologia

L'importanza dell'etica per il futuro della tecnologia | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
La tecnologia si sta evolvendo molto più velocemente del previsto, e l'unico modo per evitare che internet si trasformi in una fogna è affidarsi all'etica.
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Cos'è e a cosa serve il marketing nutrizionale?

Cos'è e a cosa serve il marketing nutrizionale? | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Quanto influiscono le logiche di economia e marketing sul problema dell'obesità? Il marketing nutrizionale è in cerca di risposta.
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Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous
Expectations in Complex Economic 

Recognizing that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity model- ing paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools – bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria – discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realis- tic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macroeconomic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy
https://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/19294/frontmatter/9781107019294_frontmatter.pdf
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Using Behavioral Economic Field Experiments at a Firm: The Context and Design of the Truckers and Turnover Project

The Truckers and Turnover Project is a statistical case study of a single large trucking firm and its driver employees. The cooperating firm operates in the largest segment of the for-hire trucking industry in the United States, the “full truckload” (TL) segment, in which approximately 800,000 peop
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An Introduction to Behavioral Economics *

An Introduction to Behavioral Economics * | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Dr Alain Samson's Introduction to Behavioral Economics - Behavioral Science for Beginners

Behavioral economics (BE) uses psychological experimentation to develop theories about human decision making and has identified a range of biases as a result of the way people think and feel. BE is trying to change the way economists think about people’s perceptions of value and expressed preferences. According to BE, people are not always self-interested, benefits maximizing, and costs minimizing individuals with stable preferences—our thinking is subject to insufficient knowledge, feedback, and processing capability, which often involves uncertainty and is affected by the context in which we make decisions. Most of our choices are not the result of careful deliberation. We are influenced by readily available information in memory, automatically generated affect, and salient information in the environment. We also live in the moment, in that we tend to resist change, are poor predictors of future behavior, subject to distorted memory, and affected by physiological and emotional states. Finally, we are social animals with social preferences, such as those expressed in trust, reciprocity and fairness; we are susceptible to social norms and a need for self-consistency. Interdisciplinary Context The field of BE is situated in a larger landscape of social and behavioral sciences, including cognitive and social psychology, and developments in the domain of neuroscience have opened up promising avenues for BE informed by better understanding of the human brain (Camerer, Loewenstein, & Prelec, 2005). It has been argued that BE would benefit from greater connections with other behavioral sciences, such as anthropology, which may be particularly important for domains that incorporate human interaction, especially behavioral game theory (Gintis, 2009). In a related vein, psychologists interested in the evolutionary origins of phenomena studied by behavioral economists have investigated behavioral biases in monkeys (Lakshminarayanan, Chen, & Santos, 2011). Some evolutionary psychologists have challenged assumptions about the rationality that underlies BE, in that seemingly ‘irrational’ judgments and decisions may have been functionally adaptive in our ancestral environment. The use of heuristic shortcuts, for example, is an efficient means for humans to make use of limited knowledge and processing capabilities. According to Herbert Simon, people tend to make decisions by satisficing (a combination of sufficing and satisfying) rather than optimizing (Gigerenzer & Goldstein, 1996), where decisions are often simply good enough in light of the costs and constraints involved. Evolutionary perspectives have also been applied to decision framing, showing that framing effects in a classic ‘lives lost’ versus ‘lives saved’ risky decision problem can change with the number of lives at stake. An “irrational” risk preference reversal effect is present when 600 or 6000 are involved, but it disappears when the number is reduced to 6 or 60. The evolutionary view holds that our thinking patterns evolved in hunter-gatherer environments that involved small groups (Rode & Wang, 2000).

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Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire: Behavioral Reactions to Terrorist Attacks by Gerd Gigerenzer :: SSRN

Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire: Behavioral Reactions to Terrorist Attacks by Gerd Gigerenzer :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: A low-probability, high-damage event in which many people are killed at one point of time is called a dread risk. Dread risks can cause direct damage and, in addition, indirect damage mediated though the minds of citizens. I analyze the behavioral reactions of Americans to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and provide evidence for the dread hypothesis: (i) Americans reduced their air travel after the attack; (ii) for a period of one year following the attacks, interstate highway travel increased, suggesting that a proportion of those who did not fly instead drove to their destination; and (iii) for the same period, in each month the number of fatal highway crashes exceeded the base line of the previous years. An estimated 1,500 Americans died on the road in the attempt to avoid the fate of the passengers who were killed in the four fatal flights.

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Economic Theory as Ideology

Economic Theory as Ideology | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Ideology and Science are diametrically opposed to each other. An ideology is a set of beliefs that is maintained even in face of strong empirical evidence to the contrary. In sharp contrast, scientific theories are judged primarily according to their ability to explain the empirical evidence. Theories which conflict with observations are rejected. This does not mean that ideology is necessarily wrong or bad – we must maintain our belief in justice, morality, honesty, trust, integrity without any empirical evidence; indeed, even when strong empirical evidence suggests that these beliefs will not bring us popularity or personal benefits. However, ideological beliefs in wrong ideas can blind us to the facts and prevent learning which is essential to progress. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz remarked that modern Economics represents the triumph of ideology over science. This essay explains the reasons for his remarks..

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Probabilistic Recognition Heuristic by Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Michael Smithson :: SSRN

Probabilistic Recognition Heuristic by Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Michael Smithson :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: According to the recognition heuristic, people infer that an object they recognize has a higher value on a criterion of interest than an object they do not recognize. This model has been analyzed and conditions for the less-is-more effect- where recognizing fewer objects increases inferential accuracy have been derived. We extend previous studies by modelling this heuristic including the probabilistic recognition of objects and provide a number of results: First, we derive closed-form expressions for the parameters of the original model, in terms of the distributions of recognition and other cues over the objects. Second, we use the expressions to analyze the less-is-more effect. Third, we assume that the vectors of objects is random and use the expressions to calculate and compare the expected accuracy probability of success and derive the conditions under which the model equal or surpass the accuracy of random inference. Our results are general and can thus be linked to any model of recognition-based inference.

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Taking Uncertainty Seriously: Simplicity versus Complexity in Financial Regulation by David Aikman, Mirta Galesic, Gerd Gigerenzer, Sujit Kapadia, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Amit Kothiyal, Emma...

Taking Uncertainty Seriously: Simplicity versus Complexity in Financial Regulation by David Aikman, Mirta Galesic, Gerd Gigerenzer, Sujit Kapadia, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Amit Kothiyal, Emma... | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: Distinguishing between risk and uncertainty, this paper draws on the psychological literature on heuristics to consider whether and when simpler approaches may outperform more complex methods for modelling and regulating the financial system. We find that: (i) simple methods can sometimes dominate more complex modelling approaches for calculating banks’ capital requirements, especially if limited data are available for estimating models or the underlying risks are characterised by fat-tailed distributions; (ii) simple indicators often outperformed more complex metrics in predicting individual bank failure during the global financial crisis; and (iii) when combining information from different indicators to predict bank failure, ‘fast-and-frugal’ decision trees can perform comparably to standard, but more information-intensive, regression techniques, while being simpler and easier to communicate. 

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Nudges That Fail by Cass R. Sunstein :: SSRN

Nudges That Fail by Cass R. Sunstein :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: Why are some nudges ineffective? Focusing primarily on default rules, this essay emphasizes two reasons. The first involves strong antecedent preferences on the part of choosers. The second involves successful “counternudges,” which persuade people to choose in a way that confounds the efforts of choice architects. Nudges might also be ineffective for five other reasons. (1) Some nudges produce confusion. (2) Some nudges have only short-term effects. (3) Some nudges produce “reactance” (though this appears to be rare) (4) Some nudges are based on an inaccurate (though initially plausible) understanding on the part of choice architects of what kinds of choice architecture will move people in particular contexts. (5) Some nudges produce compensating behavior, resulting in no net effect. When a nudge turns out to be ineffective, choice architects have three potential responses: (1) Do nothing; (2) nudge better (or different); and (3) fortify the effects of the nudge, perhaps through counter-counternudges, perhaps through incentives, mandates, or bans.

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Neuroscience and the Law: Don’t Rush In

Neuroscience and the Law: Don’t Rush In | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
As you sit reading this, you probably experience an internal voice, unheard by any outsider, that verbally repeats the words you see on the page. That voice (which, in your case, speaks perfect English) is part of what we call your conscious mind. And the physical organ that causes what you see on the page …
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Quanto è libero il libero arbitrio? - Il Post

Quanto è libero il libero arbitrio? - Il Post | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

L'Atlantic ha ripreso un esteso dibattito in corso da decenni tra neuroscienziati e filosofi: esiste un "libero arbitrio", o le nostre scelte sono determinate da fattori genetici e ambientali?

Un giorno di ottobre del 2005 il neuroscienziato statunitense James Fallon, docente di psichiatria e neurobiologia alla School of Medicine dell’Università della California (UCI), stava osservando una serie di scansioni del cervello di alcuni pazienti ottenute mediante PET (tomografia a emissioni di positroni, un esame molto usato in neurologia e nella diagnostica oncologica). Fallon stava lavorando a uno studio il cui obiettivo era quello di rintracciare eventuali tratti anatomici comuni o particolari alterazioni nel cervello di un gruppo di assassini seriali con comprovate tendenze psicopatiche. Tra le numerose immagini diagnostiche sparse sulla scrivania, per altre ricerche a cui stava lavorando, Fallon aveva anche le scansioni del suo cervello e di quello dei suoi familiari. In una di quelle immagini notò evidenti caratteristiche comuni alle scansioni del cervello di molti assassini che stava studiando: una ridottissima attività cerebrale in alcune aree del lobo frontale e temporale, aree che numerosi studi di neuroscienze associano all’empatia, all’autocontrollo e all’inibizione dell’impulsività. Considerando che si trattava della sua famiglia, Fallon violò il metodo di lavoro “in cieco” e scoprì subito l’etichetta che nascondeva il codice identificativo della persona a cui apparteneva quella scansione: il cervello era il suo. Non solo: cercando informazioni sulla propria storia familiare, Fallon scoprì di essere un lontano discendente di Lizzie Borden – protagonista di un noto e controverso processo per parricidio nel 1892 – e di avere sette assassini noti tra i suoi antenati da parte di padre. «Questo creerà qualche problema alla prossima festa che diamo», disse a sua moglie revisionando i dati della ricerca.

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Non solo tecnologia… complessità e imprevedibilità dei sistemi organizzativi

Non solo tecnologia… complessità e imprevedibilità dei sistemi organizzativi | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
L’unica conoscenza che valga è quella che si alimenta di incertezza, e il solo pensiero che vive è quello che si mantiene alla temperatura della propria distruzione 
Quando si separa la mente dalla struttura in cui è immanente – come un rapporto umano, la società umana o l’ecosistema – si commette, io credo, un errore fondamentale, di cui a lungo andare sicuramente si soffrirà Gregory Bateson Rispetto alle leggi scientifiche, la realtà si è dimostrata più ricca e stravagante di quanto potessero prevedere coloro che avevano fatto di queste leggi il mezzo determinante della esplorazione del mondo Ilya Prigogine Il nuovo ambiente plasmato dalla tecnologia elettrica è un ambiente cannibalistico che divora le persone. Per sopravvivere, bisogna studiare le abitudini dei cannibali Marshall McLuhan
Sistemi e organizzazioni complesse devono confrontarsi e interagire con ecosistemi sempre più caotici e disordinati ma, allo stesso tempo, sempre più interdipendenti e interconnessi, che attraversano un’ulteriore fase (critica) di evoluzione – non lineare – per differenziazione segnata dall’avvento dell’economia interconnessa dell’immateriale (Dominici). Un tipo di economia e di contesto storico-sociale – che ho definito Società Ipercomplessa (2003-05) – che, al di là delle resistenze, soprattutto di tipo culturale, stanno costringendo sempre più i sistemi organizzativi a configurare nuovi modelli e strategie uniformandosi, almeno in termini di etichetta, ai principi della trasparenza e dell’accesso e, più in generale, dell’openness e della condivisione della conoscenza. In tal senso, la comunicazione (non soltanto quella organizzativa), da “semplice” strumento di manipolazione, persuasione (più o meno occulta e responsabile), promozione, reputazione, consenso e costruzione di una visibilità (paradossalmente) fine a sé stessa, è destinata progressivamente a diventare e, soprattutto, ad essere riconosciuta come vero e proprio vettore di trasparenza, accesso, servizio, condivisione, riduzione della complessità. In altre parole, fattore strategico di efficienza e non soltanto per l’immagine e/o la reputazione, il consenso o la vendita.
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5 tecniche di neuromarketing che fanno leva sui clienti

5 tecniche di neuromarketing che fanno leva sui clienti | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Il Neuromarketing è una branca delle neuroeconomie e indica una recente disciplina volta all’individuazione dei canali legati ai processi decisionali d’acquisto ....
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Il priming: unione tra psicologia e pubblicità

Il priming: unione tra psicologia e pubblicità | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Il priming è un esempio di psicologia applicata al marketing. Consapevole o involontario, influenza il comportamento del consumatore.
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Rethinking Marketing and Customers: Lessons from Behavioral Economics

The relatively new field of behavioral economics incorporates a range of disciplines, from cognitive science to marketing, in order to paint a more nuanced and whole portrait of human behavior in the marketplace. One of its key revelations has been that consumers are neither fully rational nor fully aware of what drives their own economic decision making. But turning the tightly controlled and sometimes narrow findings of academia into practicable solutions is not always easy. So how does behavioral economics work (or not work) under real-world conditions?
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Using Behavioral Science Insights to Make Government More Effective, Simpler, and More People-Friendly

Using Behavioral Science Insights to Make Government More Effective, Simpler, and More People-Friendly | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
This month marks one full year since the launch of the first-ever Social and Behavioral Sciences Team (SBST), which was created in response to the President’s call to make government programs more effective and efficient. SBST had a successful first year, launching a wide variety of evidence-based pilots. To mark the one-year anniversary of SBST, the team met with President Obama last Friday.
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Old economic models couldn't predict the recession. Time for new ones.

Old economic models couldn't predict the recession. Time for new ones. | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Part of a continuing series about complexity science by the Santa Fe Institute and The Christian Science Monitor, generously supported by Arizona State University. The 2008 financial crisis – which cost the United States economy between $6 trillion to $14 trillion and the world economy a great deal more – shook the world of finance to its foundation. It hit the most vulnerable particularly hard, as unemployment in the US doubled from 5 to 10 percent, and in several countries in southern Europe, 1 in 4 people who want a job are still unable to find work – roughly the unemployment rate the US experienced during the Great Depression. Recommended: Foreign companies that beat Silicon Valley at its own game It’s now old hat to point out that very few experts saw it coming. We shouldn’t be too hard on them, though. Surprisingly, the US investment in developing a better theoretical understanding of the economy is very small – around $50 million in annual funding from the National Science Foundation – or just 0.0005 percent of a $10 trillion crisis. Foreign companies that beat Silicon Valley at its own game PHOTOS OF THE DAY Photos of the day 07/20

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William Smith's curator insight, July 22, 4:56 PM
Surprising that most economic models were not already this sophisticated.
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The Auditory Cortex of Hearing and Deaf People are Almost Identical

The Auditory Cortex of Hearing and Deaf People are Almost Identical | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Neuroscience News has recent neuroscience research articles, brain research news, neurology studies and neuroscience resources for neuroscientists, students, and science fans and is always free to join. Our neuroscience social network has science groups, discussion forums, free books, resources, science videos and more.
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On the quality of emergence
in complex collective systems

On the quality of emergence in complex collective systems.
Abstract A number of elements towards a classification of the quality of emergence in emergent collective systems are provided. By using those elements, several classes of emergent systems are exemplified, ranging from simple aggregations of simple parts up to complex organizations of complex collective systems. In so doing, the factors likely to play a a significant role in the persistence of emergence and its opposite are highlighted. From this, new elements for discussion are identified also considering elements from the System of Leibniz.
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Extending the Recognition Heuristic: A Three-State Model by Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Michael Smithson :: SSRN

Extending the Recognition Heuristic: A Three-State Model by Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Michael Smithson :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: According to the recognition heuristic, people infer that an object they recognize has a higher value on a criterion of interest than an object they do not recognize. This model has been analyzed mathematically and conditions for the less-is-more effect -- where recognizing fewer objects increases inferential accuracy -- have been derived. We propose an extension of the heuristic that incorporates the empirical finding that people recognize some objects for which they believe they have low criterion value. We call these recognized objects unsatisfying, in contrast to recognized-satisfying objects which the inference-maker believes to have a high criterion value. We analyze the model and provide a number of results: First, we derive closed-form expressions for the parameters of our model, as well as for the parameters of the original model, in terms of the distributions of recognition and other cues over the objects. Second, we use the expressions to analyze the less-is-more effect for both models. Third, we use the expressions to calculate and compare the accuracy of the two models and derive conditions under which the models equal or surpass the accuracy of random inference. Our results are general and can thus be linked to any model of recognition-based inference.

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As-If Behavioral Economics: Neoclassical Economics in Disguise? by Nathan Berg, Gerd Gigerenzer :: SSRN

As-If Behavioral Economics: Neoclassical Economics in Disguise? by Nathan Berg, Gerd Gigerenzer :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: For a research program that counts improved empirical realism among its primary goals, it is surprising that behavioral economics appears indistinguishable from neoclassical economics in its reliance on “as-if” arguments. “As-if” arguments are frequently put forward in behavioral economics to justify “psychological” models that add new parameters to fit decision outcome data rather than specifying more realistic or empirically supported psychological processes that genuinely explain these data. Another striking similarity is that both behavioral and neoclassical research programs refer to a common set of axiomatic norms without subjecting them to empirical investigation. Notably missing is investigation of whether people who deviate from axiomatic rationality face economically significant losses. Despite producing prolific documentation of deviations from neoclassical norms, behavioral economics has produced almost no evidence that deviations are correlated with lower earnings, lower happiness, impaired health, inaccurate beliefs, or shorter lives. We argue for an alternative non-axiomatic approach to normative analysis focused on veridical descriptions of decision process and a matching principle – between behavioral strategies and the environments in which they are used – referred to as ecological rationality. To make behavioral economics, or psychology and economics, a more rigorously empirical science will require less effort spent extending “as-if” utility theory to account for biases and deviations, and substantially more careful observation of successful decision makers in their respective domains.

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