Cormac McCarthy is best known to the world as a writer of novels. These include Blood Meridian, All the Pretty Horses, No Country for Old Men, and The Road. At the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) he is a research colleague and thought of in complementary terms. An aficionado on subjects ranging from the history of mathematics, philosophical arguments relating to the status of quantum mechanics as a causal theory, comparative evidence bearing on non-human intelligence, and the nature of the conscious and unconscious mind. At SFI we have been searching for the expression of these scientific interests in his novels and we maintain a furtive tally of their covert manifestations and demonstrations in his prose. …
The obvious choice is often wrong.Test yourself with this word problem: Imagine you’re responsible for your company’s car fleet. You manage two models, an SUV that gets 10 miles to the gallon and a sedan that gets 20. The fleet has equal numbers of each, and all the cars travel 10,000 miles a year. You have enough capital to replace one model with more-fuel-efficient vehicles to lower operational costs and help meet sustainability goals. Which upgrade is better? A. Replacing the 10 MPG vehicles with 20 MPG vehicles B. Replacing the 20 MPG vehicles with 50 MPG vehicles Intuitively, option B seems more impressive—an increase of 30 MPG is a lot larger than a 10 MPG one. And the percentage increase is greater, too. But B is not the better deal. In fact, it’s not even close. Let’s compare.
How can systems thinking help in day-to-day problem solving? There was an office building in New York, where tenants were complaining about long elevator waiting times. Occupants complained about the poor elevator service at peak hours, and its excessively long wait time. Several of the tenants event threatened to break their leases and move out of the building because of this. A study was conducted to identify a suitable solution. The study revealed that because of the age of the building, no engineering solution could be economically justified and that the tenants would just have to live with the problem. The desperate building manager called a meeting with his staff. On his team was a recent graduate in psychology, who could see the problem from a different perspective than the engineers. He didn’t focus on the elevator performance, but instead on the fact that people complained about waiting. The actual waiting time was only a few minutes, so why did people still complain? He concluded that the complaints were a consequence of boredom, not necessarily elevator performance. Therefore, he suggested giving those waiting something to occupy their time with. One suggestion was to install mirrors in the elevator lobby areas so that those waiting could look at each other and/or themselves. The manager tried this low cost solution and the complaints stopped. Today, mirrors in elevator lobbies and even on elevators in tall buildings are a very common sight.
Most people would not consider themselves biased. But a new book says that nearly everyone has unconscious biases — and they affect how we interact with others, with real consequences. Filter Shift: How Effective People See the World by Sara Taylor notes that one can learn to manage these biases, or filters, by being mindful that they are there and then working on ways to address them. Critical to the process is the “Platinum Rule,” which is learning to treat people how they — not you — would like to be treated, because what works for you may not work for others. Taylor recently shared insights from her book on the Knowledge@Wharton show, which is part of Wharton Business Radio that airs on SiriusXM channel 111.Nearly everyone has unconscious biases when interacting, notes a new book. But learning how to shift filters can boost effectiveness in dealing with others.
Tom Gruber, one of the inventors of the artificial intelligence voice interface Siri that now lives inside iPhones and the macOS operating system, shared a new idea at the TED 2017 conference today for using artificial intelligence to augment human memory. “What if you could have a memory that was as good as computer memory and is about your life?” Gruber asked the audience. “What if you could remember every person you ever met? How to pronounce their name? Their family details? Their favorite sports? The last conversation you had with them?” Gruber said he thinks that using artificial intelligence to catalog our experiences and to enhance our memory isn’t just a wild idea — it’s inevitable. And the whole reason Gruber says it’s possible: Data about the media that we consume and the people we talk to is available because we use the internet and our smartphones to mediate our lives. Privacy is no small consideration here. “We get to chose what is and is not recalled and retained,” said Gruber. “It’s absolutely essential that this be kept very secure.” Though the idea of digitally storing our memories certainly raises a host of unsettling possibilities, Gruber says that AI memory enhancement could be a life-changing technology for those who suffer from Alzheimer’s or dementia
We propose a theory of inattention solely based on preferences, absent cognitive limitations or external costs of information. Under disappointment aversion, agents are intrinsically information averse. In a consumption-savings problem, we study how information averse agents cope with their fear of information, to make better decisions: they acquire information at infrequent intervals only, and inattention increases when volatility is high, consistent with the empirical evidence. Adding state-dependent alerts following sharp downturns improves welfare, despite the additional endogenous information costs. Our framework accommodates a broad range of applications, suggesting our approach can explain many observed features of decision under uncertainty
Over the last three years, we’ve been working as part of the Adult Skills and Knowledge (ASK) research centre on a series of trials that use text messages to boost attendance and grades at further education colleges. We’ve learned a lot about how to get students to show up to class, and how to help them pass their final exams. In our first study, published here today, we found that a suite of text messages based on four principles increased the rate at which students passed by 8 percentage points.
The interconnection of devices within the “Internet of Things” (IoT) creates new data sources. Companies can now better observe people’s choices and test the effectiveness of different mechanisms to activate and retain more customers. It may also help policymakers overcome one of the most frequent problems of policy design: the lack of personalized content. We argue that the IoT not only disrupts the way we track our actions and monitor our goals, but also allows the identification of effective methods to alter our behavior. This is optimized by the combination of IoT, data analytics and behavioral science.
Here's another rule of three, this one in statistics..
We were surprised to learn this is called the rule of three, as we had only heard of the rule of three in comedy. We were even more surprised when a reader wrote in telling us about a rule of three in statistics. According to Wikipedia: the rule of three states that if a certain event did not occur in a sample with n subjects … the interval from 0 to 3/n is a 95% confidence interval for the rate of occurrences in the population. It’s a heuristic. We love heuristics! We decided to give it a test run in a little simulation. You can imagine that we’re testing for defects in products coming off of a production line. Here’s how the simulation works:
As law and economics turns forty years old, its continued vitality is threatened by its unrealistic core behavioral assumption: that people subject to the law act rationally. Professors Korobkin and Ulen argue that law and economics can reinvigorate itself by replacing the rationality assumption with a more nuanced understanding of human behavior that draws on cognitive psychology, sociology, and other behavioral sciences, thus creating a new scholarly paradigm called "law and behavioral science." This article provides an early blueprint for research in this paradigm. The authors first explain the various ways the rationality assumption is used in legal scholarship and why it leads to unsatisfying policy prescriptions. They then systematically examine the empirical evidence inconsistent with the rationality assumption and, drawing on a wide range of substantive areas of law, explain how normative policy conclusions of law and economics will change and improve under the law-and-behavioralscience approach
And why conspiracy theories create serious problems—in the markets and in politics.I know an investor who anthropomorphizes the stock market, as if the Dow were a living beast. “Wouldn’t it be just like the market to draw us in with a rally, then deliver a sucker punch?” he will say, as if “the market” were a canny three-card monte player, entrapping tourists in Times Square. Irrational as that may sound, it’s no more so than the ever-popular investing method known as “technical analysis.” This is a branch of astrology—chart interpretation—that purportedly “reads” the market, even though it tells you nothing about the under lying companies. You see a chart of zigs and zags and impute to it a story—the market is “exhausted,” or “bottoming,” or whatever. Many investors are addicted to such fruitless techniques. Behavioral economics, which studies the impact of psychology on financial decision-making, explains why. It reflects what author Nassim Nicholas Taleb called the “narrative fallacy.” It’s the human tendency, actually the human need, to impose order on random events and to make events we didn’t anticipate seem “predictable” after the fact.
This interactive and highly engaging on-line program teaches how to analyse the details of a conflict in a fair and non-provocative way, and find win-win solutions for all parties involved, using a simple, logical and practical TOC (Theory of Constraints) thinking tool. The program includes a range of case studies and practical exercises. A comprehensive workbook will be provided to all participants. Learn to systematically solve conflicts, win win conflict resolution, conflict cloud,
The bias blind spot On close examination, a widespread and fundamental assumption of American life — that our justice system is truly just — threatens to fall apart. Bias runs like a jagged scar through the legal decision-making of the United States, from the nation's beginnings to present day. For census-taking purposes, authors of the foundational document of our legal system, the U.S. Constitution, deemed slaves to be merely three-fifths of a human being. And 228 years later, in August 2016, a Department of Justice investigation in the aftermath of the Freddie Gray police shooting in Baltimore revealed official policies allowing unconstitutional stops, searches, arrests and other activity by that city's police department. These examples of overt bias, institutionalized and unjust, are conspicuous — and notorious. Roberts and Curcio, however, choose to work at a personal level to raise awareness of how subconscious bias can affect client relationships, influence courtroom decisions and shape laws. Why does it matter? By logic, when the legal system can address bias at its base, at the personal level, justice will more often prevail. Lawyers will become better advocates for their clients. Judges will uniquely consider each and every courtroom decision on its own merit. Prejudicial laws will appear less often on the books. Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-04-subconscious-bias-justice.html#jCp
In Episode 7 of the Hidden Forces podcast, Demetri Kofinas speaks with one of the pioneers in complexity theory and complexity science, W. Brian Arthur. Brian Arthur has long been associated with the Santa Fe Institute, having served on its board of trustees and its board of science. He has been described by Fortune Magazine, as “one of the country’s leading economic thinkers,” and he is best known for his pioneering work on the operation of high-technology markets. He is the author of numerous papers and books, including The Nature of Technology: What it is and How It Evolves, and Complexity and the Economy, a collection of papers on economics and financial markets examined from the perspective of complexity theory. In this episode, Demetri Kofinas examines the emerging fields of complexity theory and complexity science. Brian Arthur educates us on the interdisciplinary history of complexity theory. It is a history replete with the work of mathematicians, physicists, philosophers, ecologists, biologists, etc. It is a field bound together not by its adherence to perfection, but by the imperfections of the natural world. This is an episode that moves far from equilibrium. Complexity theory is messy. It zigs and it zags. Demetri Kofinas and W. Brian Arthur cover the booms and the busts of Joseph Schumpeter. They examine the information-laden price signals of Friedrich Hayek. They circle the chaotic orbits of Joseph Ford. They scale the infinite fractals of Benoit Mandelbrot. Demetri Kofinas asks Brian Arthur about information theory, cryptography, and quantum potentiality. Both dive deep into the waves that make markets and life so volatile, a volatility that is born of a universe whose countless mysteries we can never fully understand. Complexity Theory is an emerging field of scientific study that seeks to offer a better framework for understanding dynamic, complex adaptive systems.
But BuzzFeed’s operation stands out for the size of the team working on it as well as the lengths it’s going to to grow the business. Case in point: BuzzFeed just built its own software tool that helps onboard more shopping sites that give BuzzFeed a cut of sales, and to help its writers estimate how much revenue a certain post will generate. If that feels a little icky for a media company that also has a serious news operation, well, welcome to 2017. It’s also worth noting that these writers sit in the BuzzFeed Entertainment part of the company in a group run by editorial director Peggy Wang, which reports up to Ze Frank, not News head Ben Smith. The first partner integrating with BuzzFeed’s new tool is Shopify, a public company whose software is used by about 400,000 businesses to create and run independent online shops. Shopify merchants that opt in will make their merchandise searchable to the BuzzFeed writers crafting these posts.
Abstract The present essay focuses on the fast and frugal heuristics program set forth by Gerd Gigerenzer and his fellows. In particular it examines the contribution of Gigerenzer and Goldstein (1996) ‘Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality’. This essay, following the theoretical propositions and the empirical evidence of Gigerenzer and Goldstein, points out that simple cognitive mechanisms such as fast and frugal heuristics can be capable of successful performance in real world, without the need of satisfying the classical norms of rational inference.
Banks are faced with the problem how to deal with communications in the digital age. Gone are the days they only had to monitor e-mails and tap their phones. Chats aren’t limited to Bloomberg anymore, instead many new channels can be used to communicate with peers and clients nor do their employees want to be constrained to use their company phones. However, these new channels present new challenges for banks to comply with their regulatory obligations. Some are trying to turn back time, but we will look at why this isn’t really an option and how financial institutions should respond in the 21st century.
Il termine neuropolitica indica un campo d’indagine che ha lo scopo di studiare le funzioni del cervello di un individuo impegnato in attività che prevedono la presenza di altri individui. Durante le elezioni presidenziali americane del 2007, sette neuro scienziati dell’Università della California pubblicarono i risultati di un test sull’orientamento di voto somministrato a un gruppo di persone incerte nella decisione di voto. Dalla ricerca risultò come la citazione delle parole “democratico” e “repubblicano” suscitò alti livelli di attività nell’amigdala. L’amigdala è una struttura anatomica a forma di mandorla che fa parte dell’area primitiva del cervello e che è coinvolta nell’attivazione delle emozioni, come la paura, della memoria e nella reazione “attacca o scappa”. Secondo gli studiosi, questo comportamento significa una “crescita” dell’ansia dal momento che i leader sono considerati portatori sia di promesse che di insidie. Un sintomo dell’interesse che questo genere di studi ha suscitato nelle sfide del XXI secolo è la decisione del primo ministro britannico di assumere tra i suoi consiglieri esperti di neuroscienze ed esperti del comportamento umano.
Gamification e nudging sono due facce della stessa medaglia. Il primo concetto definisce l’adozione, in ambiti non ludici, di strategie legate al gioco. Uno strumento potente e versatile per coinvolgere dipendenti, clienti e partner, cambiandone i comportamenti e sviluppando competenze che mirino all’innovazione. Il secondo invece (tradotto in italiano come “spintarella” o “spinta gentile”) è divenuto famoso grazie al best seller “Nudge” di Richard Thaler del 2009 e si rifà alla volontà, da parte di un’organizzazione, di un ente o di un qualsiasi soggetto, di modificare il contesto di una scelta, per renderlo più semplice e comprensibile, così da facilitare la decisione da parte degli altri. Si tratta di un processo, ad oggi, molto sviluppato nel campo dell’economia, delle scienze sociali ma anche nel vissuto quotidiano di piccole città e metropoli.
I cosiddetti bias cognitivi sono distorsioni del giudizio, errori di valutazione nel calcolo delle probabilità che agiscono a diversi livelli, non solo sul piano della salute ma anche nel mondo della finanza ad esempio. Diversi esperimenti dimostrano che noi siamo esseri con una razionalità limitata e questo si deve a ragioni evolutive. Per millenni l’uomo ha condotto una vita da cacciatore-raccoglitore e si è adattato a un contesto biologico che non prevedeva i problemi che la società della conoscenza oggi invece pone costantemente. Il nostro cervello non è stato selezionato per capire l’innovazione scientifica e per questo siamo disadatti a comprendere la modernità.
The Big Ideas in Cognitive Neuroscience, Explained Are emergent properties really for losers? Why are architectures important? What are “mirror neuron ensembles” anyway? My last post presented an idiosyncratic distillation of the Big Ideas in Cognitive Neuroscience symposium, presented by six speakers at the 2017 CNS meeting. Here I’ll briefly explain what I meant in…
This essay tries to highlight some heuristic potential of the theory of rationality developed by Boudon, comparing it with some of the most important contributions of the epistemology of the twentieth century. The theory of argumentation of Ch. Perelman, the critical rationalism of K. Popper and H. Albert, the theory of rationality of L. von Mises, and the philosophy of action of W. Dray. I try to analyse the similarities and the differences between the views of these authors and that of the French sociologist in order to highlight, through the use of a comparative approach, the peculiarity of the “rationality of good reasons” proposed by Boudon and its capacity to explain in terms individualistic positive and normative collective beliefs. In this way I intend to clarify some philosophical and methodology fundamental assumptions of Boudon’s interpretative sociology, focused on an analysis of social phenomena in terms of the intended and especially unintended effect of individual actions produced by “good reasons”.
Sharing your scoops to your social media accounts is a must to distribute your curated content. Not only will it drive traffic and leads through your content, but it will help show your expertise with your followers.
How to integrate my topics' content to my website?
Integrating your curated content to your website or blog will allow you to increase your website visitors’ engagement, boost SEO and acquire new visitors. By redirecting your social media traffic to your website, Scoop.it will also help you generate more qualified traffic and leads from your curation work.
Distributing your curated content through a newsletter is a great way to nurture and engage your email subscribers will developing your traffic and visibility.
Creating engaging newsletters with your curated content is really easy.