Bounded Rationality and Beyond
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Optimizing the Investment Process: Michael Mauboussin’s Strategies for Making Decisions under Uncertainty

Optimizing the Investment Process: Michael Mauboussin’s Strategies for Making Decisions under Uncertainty | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
At the recent CFA Society of the UK Annual Conference in London, Michael Mauboussin, chief investment officer at Legg Mason Capital Management, laid out some best practices, including paying attent...
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News on the effects of bounded rationality in economics and business, relationships and politics
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New: The Behavioral Economics Guide 2017

New: The Behavioral Economics Guide 2017 | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

 Edited by Alain Samson

CONTENTS

Introduction by Cass Sunstei
Part 1 - Editorial
Behavioral Economics: Expanding Boundaries
Part 2 - Applications
Behavioral Science in Practice
Part 3 - Resources
Selected Behavioral Economics Concepts
Postgraduate Programs in Behavioral Economics and
Behavioral/Decision Science
Popular (Behavioral) Science Books
Scholarly Journals with Behavioral Economics Content
Other Resources

Appendix - Author and Contributing Organization Profiles
 

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A Theory of Reality as More Than the Sum of Its Parts

A Theory of Reality as More Than the Sum of Its Parts | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

 In his 1890 opus, The Principles of Psychology, William James invoked Romeo and Juliet to illustrate what makes conscious beings so different from the particles that make them up. “Romeo wants Juliet as the filings want the magnet; and if no obstacles intervene he moves towards her by as straight a line as they,” James wrote. “But Romeo and Juliet, if a wall be built between them, do not remain idiotically pressing their faces against its opposite sides like the magnet and the filings. … Romeo soon finds a circuitous way, by scaling the wall or otherwise, of touching Juliet’s lips directly.” Erik Hoel, a 29-year-old theoretical neuroscientist and writer, quoted the passage in a recent essay in which he laid out his new mathematical explanation of how consciousness and agency arise. The existence of agents — beings with intentions and goal-oriented behavior — has long seemed profoundly at odds with the reductionist assumption that all behavior arises from mechanistic interactions between particles. Agency doesn’t exist among the atoms, and so reductionism suggests agents don’t exist at all: that Romeo’s desires and psychological states are not the real causes of his actions, but merely approximate the unknowably complicated causes and effects between the atoms in his brain and surroundings. Hoel’s theory, called “causal emergence,” roundly rejects this reductionist assumption.New math shows how, contrary to conventional scientific wisdom, conscious beings and other macroscopic entities might have greater influence over the future.

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slot-machine e Il disturbo da gioco d’azzardo: le recenti considerazioni scientifiche

slot-machine e Il disturbo da gioco d’azzardo: le recenti considerazioni scientifiche | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Quali sono i principali fattori coinvolti nell’esordio e nel mantenimento del gioco d’azzardo patologico da slot-machine emersi dalle ricerche più recenti?

I correlati neurali del Disturbo da gioco d’azzardo da slot-machine Nell’insieme, i dati in letteratura indicano il coinvolgimento del sistema dopaminergico (e/o altri percorsi aminergici) nella patofisiologia del Disturbo da gioco d’azzardo (Potenza et al., 2003). Recenti studi (Van Holst et al., 2014) hanno poi mostrato che la gravità del gioco d’azzardo da slot-machine risulta essere associata ad una minore connettività tra le aree sensibili alla ricompensa (in particolare tra lo striato-ventrale destro e la corteccia cingolata anteriore). Interessanti in questo senso sono gli studi condotti nell’ambito dell’apprendimento, dato che il circuito della ricompensa assolve un ruolo fondamentale nella motivazione all’apprendimento generalmente inteso. Nello svolgimento di un’attività la spinta motivazionale può essere legata ad uno stato di piacere di tipo endogenico, legato allo svolgimento dell’attività stessa, e ad uno di tipo esogenico, legato al raggiungimento degli obiettivi (quindi nel caso delle slot-machine alla vincita): questi stati di piacere suscitano emozioni positive che agiscono da rinforzi comportamentali, contribuendo al consolidamento dell’apprendimento. Secondo i modelli biologici contemporanei (Schultz, 2010), con il procedere dell’apprendimento l’attività dei neuroni dopaminergici nell’area tegmentale-ventrale (VTA) tende a diminuire, mentre l’attività evocata dagli stimoli che segnalano un’imminente consegna di ricompense tende ad aumentare

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Meritocrazia, mediocrazia. Le lezioni dalla fisica dei sistemi complessi. Dialogo con Andrea Rapisarda e Alessandro Pluchino (di Michele Ciavarella e Simone Lucattini)

Il Merito.org vuole entrare nel merito dei problemi e proporre soluzioni concrete. L’obiettivo della Rivista sono soluzioni forti capaci di incidere da subito.

Il principio di Peter e merito. Come forse non tutti sanno, Lawrence J. Peter è lo psicologo canadese che alla fine degli anni ’60 enunciò un principio, poi divenuto celebre, secondo il quale i membri di una organizzazione gerarchica, promossi attraverso selezione meritocratica, scalano i livelli della gerarchia fino a raggiungere il loro livello di massima incompetenza. La logica che sta dietro l’affermazione, apparentemente ironica, di Peter è che in molti casi, quando si è promossi al livello successivo della scala gerarchica perché si è bravi a fare il proprio lavoro, nulla garantisce che la nuova mansione, comportando in genere abilità e competenze diverse, possa essere eseguita con lo stesso rendimento della mansione precedente. Utilizzando la matematica e le simulazioni ad agenti, voi avete realizzato un modello estremamente semplificato di una organizzazione gerarchica virtuale (vedi figura) per mezzo del quale mostrate non solo che il principio di Peter è assolutamente reale, ma anche che è possibile contrastarlo promuovendo le persone a caso invece che per i loro meriti. Ricordo che il maggiore successo del vostro contributo è stato in USA perché, per quel sistema, la promozione “a caso” è un vero shock/cambio di paradigma: un insulto, quasi, al concetto di meritocrazia anglosassone. Forse proprio per questo il vostro studio è stato preso sul serio più in quel mondo, mentre in Italia dubito che abbia davvero suscitato riflessioni serie. D’altronde nemmeno il sistema italiano, basato spesso sulla mediocrazia della “casta”, mi pare stia andando lontano. Ma venendo al punto, sapete di qualche multinazionale o impresa che abbia adottato il vostro sistema di promozione casuale?

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Euristiche cognitive e propaganda: la disinformazione ai tempi di internet

Euristiche cognitive e propaganda: la disinformazione ai tempi di internet | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

La vittoria del fronte Brexit e di Trump, unita all’aumento delle ansie legate alle attività di propaganda sul web condotte da attori antagonisti alle liberal-democrazie occidentali ha portato al dilagare del concetto post-truth. 

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Nudge management: applying behavioural science to increase knowledge worker productivity

Nudge management: applying behavioural science to increase knowledge worker productivity | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Knowledge worker productivity is essential for competitive strength in the digital century. Small interventions based on insights from behavioural science makes it possible for knowledge workers to be
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Can omega-3 help prevent Alzheimer's disease? Brain SPECT imaging shows possible link: Neuroimaging shows increased blood flow in regions of the brain associated with memory and learning for people...

Can omega-3 help prevent Alzheimer's disease? Brain SPECT imaging shows possible link: Neuroimaging shows increased blood flow in regions of the brain associated with memory and learning for people... | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
The incidence of Alzheimer's disease is expected to triple in the coming decades and no cure has been found. Recently, interest in dietary approaches for prevention of cognitive decline has increased. In particular, the omega-3 fatty acids have shown anti-amyloid, anti-tau and anti-inflammatory actions in the brains of animals.
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Dimensioni superiori Markus Ruppert e Hans-Georg Weigand

Alla ricerca della dimensione succes- siva Il nostro mondo ha davvero più di tre dimen- sioni? Se è così, gli oggetti in una dimensio- ne superiore hanno una relazione con il mon- do intorno a noi? È possibile percepire questi oggetti o sono lontani da una qualunque rap- presentazione? La Teoria della Relatività usa quattro dimensioni per spiegare il concetto di spazio-tempo, sei dimensioni sono necessarie per descrivere la curvatura dello spazio-tempo e diverse teorie delle stringhe usano persino rappresentazioni fino a 26 dimensioni (e.g. L. Botelho, R.Botelho, 1999). Un altro dominio attuale di applicazione per oggetti in dimensione superio- re e per le loro rappresentazioni tridimensionali è lo studio delle struttu- re non-periodiche nella cristallografia moderna. All’interno del concetto dei quasicristalli si suppone che le proiezioni di insiemi di punti di dimensione superiore (come il lattice intero in dimensione 5) nello spazio tridimensionale siano buoni modelli per strutture cristalline non-periodiche (si veda, sotto, la sezione 5).

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Why predicting the future is more than just horseplay

Why predicting the future is more than just horseplay | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

The science of prediction lies at the heart of the modern world, but attempts to forecast even the most straightforward systems often confound scientists, while complex systems sometimes reveal themselves to surprisingly predictable.Three years out of a PhD in physics in 1953, John Kelly Jr. published a breakthrough paper about insider information in horse racing in an unlikely place: the Bell Labs Technical Journal. By the time it was in print, the paper's title had been scrubbed of its references to gambling – the AT&T executives didn't care for Bell Labs to be so directly associated with horse racing – but the content remained. Dr. Kelly had not just cracked the mathematics underlying a type of gambling, but he had also revealed deeper patterns about the nature of prediction. When the odds posted by the track are different from the odds determined using insider information, Kelly's formula explains how to take those differences and place the best bets possible, mathematically speaking. The formula is powerful in its simplicity. It tells us to put money on every horse for which we have an informational or statistical edge, and then calculates exactly what fraction of our bankroll to bet on each horse, depending on the strength of that edge. While this basic idea had long been known – the larger the difference in the track odds and the real odds, the bigger the opportunity for the gambler – Kelly quietly revolutionized the practice of prediction by writing down the optimal exchange rate between knowing something that others do not and the benefits of that knowledge.

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Nassim Taleb on the Importance of Probability

Nassim Taleb on the Importance of Probability | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Nassim Taleb, distinguished scientific advisor at Universa Investments and New York University professor of risk engineering, discusses why probability in the markets is important. He speaks with Erik Schatzker from the SALT Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Mondi intrusivi – Luigi D'Elia Psicologo Psicoterapeuta

Mondi intrusivi – Luigi D'Elia Psicologo Psicoterapeuta | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Come cambia il concetto di libertà?
https://t.co/VZea9KOuaQ https://t.co/W5EwksWMq0

Ma stanno proprio così le cose? È sempre vero che l’ampliamento della conoscenza apporti sempre maggiore consapevolezza e “coscienza”? È sempre vero che la scoperta dell’antidoto riduca la diffusione e la perniciosità del veleno? Oppure anche questa storia dell’andamento progressivo delle conoscenze è una vuota ed indimostrata credenza?

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Stanford to host 100-year study on artificial intelligence

Stanford to host 100-year study on artificial intelligence | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Stanford University will lead a 100-year effort to study the long-term implications of artificial intelligence in all aspects of life.Stanford University has invited leading thinkers from several institutions to begin a 100-year effort to study and anticipate how the effects of artificial intelligence will ripple through every aspect of how people work, live and play. This effort, called the One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence, or AI100, is the brainchild of computer scientist and Stanford alumnus Eric Horvitz, who, among other credits, is a former president of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence.

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Musica e cervello. Cosa accade nella testa dei musicisti?

Musica e cervello.  Cosa accade nella testa dei musicisti? | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Quando nasce la competenza musicale? Un feto risponde ai suoni e ai rumori a partire dal secondo trimestre della gravidanza e un neonato è capace di riconoscere la voce della propria madre. Uno studio del 2010 condotto da Daniela Perani e collaboratori, ha dimostrato il coinvolgimento dell’emisfero destro nell’elaborazione della musica fin dalla nascita e dunque una specializzazione emisferica per i suoni. La risonanza magnetica durante la presentazione di brani di musica occidentale ha analizzato l’attività del cervello dei neonati con 24÷48 ore di vita, quando l’esperienza uditiva alla musica è ancora minima o nulla: la musica di Mozart, Schubert, Chopin, attiva un circuito a livello dell’emisfero destro come negli adulti esposti da tempo alla musica. I risultati indicano anche che i neonati sono sensibili ai cambiamenti di intonazione e ritmo, armonie e dissonanze, variazioni di ritmo, timbro e tempo.

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Intrigued by the linguistics in Arrival? Here’s what to check out next

Intrigued by the linguistics in Arrival? Here’s what to check out next | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Recommendations for after Arrival: more linguistic sci fi stories, language puzzles to solve, creating languages, pop linguistics blogs, books, videos, podcastsIntrigued by the linguistics in Arrival? Here’s what to check out next Arrival is a movie starring Amy Adams as a linguistics professor who’s called on to figure out how to talk to aliens. Far from a hand-wave-y universal translator like we often get in science fiction, the process of figuring out the alien language in Arrival is a vital part of the plot. The seven-tentacled heptapods of Arrival are fictional. But linguistics is real and real linguists do approach language “like a mathematician.” So if you’re walking out of that theatre wondering how to get more of it, I have some recommendations for you:

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Processo decisionale del giudice: aspetti cognitivi delle decisioni che fanno sentenza

Processo decisionale del giudice: aspetti cognitivi delle decisioni che fanno sentenza | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Anche in Tribunale come nella realtà quotidiana, scorciatoie di pensiero, pregiudizi, background del giudice possono influenzare il suo processo decisionale. Come funziona il processo decisionale del giudice Simon, economista, psicologo e informatico statunitense, premio Nobel per l’economia nel 1978, disse che il processo decisionale è un’attività cognitiva in cui vengono attivati meccanismi volti alla selezione di un corso d’azione tra quelli possibili, che consenta di ottenere un risultato soddisfacente (Simon 1956). I meccanismi coinvolti nella presa di decisione sono del tutto analoghi a quelli implicati nella soluzione dei problemi, ma in quest’ultimo caso non viene selezionata un’alternativa bensì viene generata una strategia idonea al raggiungimento dello scopo indicato dal solutore. Secondo Simon (1976) tale processo decisionale consta di tre fasi principali. La prima è quella in cui avviene la raccolta di informazioni sul contesto del problema; la seconda fase riguarda l’esplorazione e l’analisi delle formulazioni alternative del problema; la terza consiste nella selezione della situazione problematica che dovrà essere risolta. Più recentemente (Bonini-Rumiati 1992) sono state meglio articolate le fasi del processo decisionale. La decisione prevede una fase di diagnosi, corrispondente ad una sorta di categorizzazione del problema, una fase di strutturazione o di editing del problema decisionale, in cui il decisore si fa un’idea più precisa riguardo alle possibili azioni da intraprendere, una fase di elaborazione in cui vengono messi in atto quei processi che permettono di adottare le modalità di soluzione del problema decisionale, infine, la scelta e il controllo delle conseguenze della scelta medesima. Analisi, quindi, che ben si adatta all’esame di una situazione cognitivamente complessa come il processo penale

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How neurons use crowdsourcing to make decisions

When many individual neurons collect data, how do they reach a unanimous decision? New research from a collective computation group suggests a two-phase process.

How do we make decisions? Or rather, how do our neurons make decisions for us? Do individual neurons have a strong say or is the voice in the neural collective? One way to think about this question is to ask how many of my neurons you would have to observe to read my mind. If you can predict I am about to say the word "grandma" by watching one of my neurons then we could say our decisions can be attributed to single, perhaps "very vocal," neurons. In neuroscience such neurons are called "grandmother" neurons after it was proposed in the 1960's that there may be single neurons that uniquely respond to complex and important percepts like a grandmother's face. On the other hand, if you can only read my mind by polling many of my neurons then it would appear the decision a collective one, distributed across hundreds, thousands, or even millions of neurons. A big debate in neuroscience is whether single-neuron encoding or distributed encoding is most relevant for understanding how the brain functions.

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We don’t save for the future because we lie to ourselves. This app might change that

We don’t save for the future because we lie to ourselves. This app might change that | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
As humans, our failings are epic. We eat too much, lie to ourselves, never exercise enough, and spend so much money we have nothing left for that vacation in Hawaii. But technology, Dan Ariely believes, might save us from ourselves. Ariely, professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University is an investor and chief behaviora
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The potential of behavioural economics: beyond the nudge

The potential of behavioural economics: beyond the nudge | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

"Nudge" economics have been embraced by policy makers. But how does it fare against more traditional ways of altering behaviour?

Behavioural economics is a revolutionary field. Its champions may not have beheaded any royalty, but they have done the academic equivalent by overthrowing a paradigm that ruled our thinking and shaped our institutions. Behavioural economists have shown that the hyper-rational, self-interested agents of standard economics are mythical creatures. Real-world people are irrational, struggle to exert control over their emotions and impulses, and are social animals with a fondness for fairness. This paradigm shift radically changes how we think about behaviour, and it seems poised to change our institutions. But how much change will it bring? Will the influence of behavioural economics on policy be limited to improving the wording of parking fines sent out to misbehaving motorists? Or can it also help us institute bold, sweeping reforms of the type that have helped make Australia equitable and prosperous?

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Cannabis reverses aging processes in the brain, study suggests: Researchers restore the memory performance of Methuselah mice to a juvenile stage

Cannabis reverses aging processes in the brain, study suggests: Researchers restore the memory performance of Methuselah mice to a juvenile stage | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Memory performance decreases with increasing age. Cannabis can reverse these ageing processes in the brain. This was shown in mice by scientists at the University of Bonn with their colleagues at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel). Old animals were able to regress to the state of two-month-old mice with a prolonged low-dose treatment with a cannabis active ingredient. This opens up new options, for instance, when it comes to treating dementia.
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Brain images reveal roots of kids' increasing cognitive control

Brain images reveal roots of kids' increasing cognitive control | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
As children age into adolescence and on into young adulthood, they show dramatic improvements in their ability to control impulses, stay organized, and make decisions. Those 'executive functions' of the brain are key factors in determining outcomes, including educational success, drug use, and psychiatric illness. Now, researchers have mapped the changes in the network organization of the brain that underlie those improvements in executive function.
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The problem with preferences – Koen Smets – Medium

The problem with preferences – Koen Smets – Medium | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

A cynic, Oscar Wilde wrote in his play Lady Windermere’s Fan, is “a man knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing”. The problem with preferences Can an objective measure like money help determine what we really, really want? Acynic, Oscar Wilde wrote in his play Lady Windermere’s Fan, is “a man knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing”. This suggests that price and value are two different concepts, which apparently corresponds well with what we see around us. We generally don’t pay our hosts when we’re invited to a dinner party, but we take a gift. Neither the cost of the ingredients nor the price of the gift are particularly material here. We normally don’t ask friends to contribute to the cost of running our car when give them a lift. Behavioural economics too seems to fit this perspective. One of its findings is that people appear to behave differently depending on whether they believe themselves to be in the market domain (where prices are essential) or in the social domain (where they don’t figure at all). An often quoted example is that of the Haifa daycare centre featuring in Uri Gneezy and Aldo Rusticini’s paper “A fine is a price”. Most parents habitually picked up their offspring before the stated closing time of the centre. They did so without any external incentive: social norms (and quite likely avoidance of guilt) were enough — but not for all of them. When a fine was introduced for picking up one’s child late, however, the number of parents who did so went up. They saw what was intended as a fine (a social intervention) as if it were a price (a market instrument), and simply ‘bought’ extra childcare time.h…

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Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making

This Handbook is a unique and original contribution of over thirty chapters on behavioural economics, examining and addressing an important stream of research where the starting assumption is that decision-makers are for the most part relatively smart or rational. This particular approach is in contrast to a theme running through much contemporary work where individuals’…
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On the Horizon: A Magnetic Zap that Strengthens Memory

On the Horizon: A Magnetic Zap that Strengthens Memory | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Imagine you are enjoying your golden years, driving to your daily appointment for some painless brain zapping that is helping to stave off memory loss. That's the hope of a new study, in which people who learned associations (such as a random word and an image) after transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) were better able to learn more pairings days and weeks later—with no further stimulation needed. TMS uses a magnetic coil placed on the head to increase electrical signaling a few centimeters into the brain. Past studies have found that TMS can boost cognition and memory during stimulation, but this is the first to show that such gains can last even after the TMS regimen is completed. In the new study, which was published in Science, neuroscientists first used brain imaging to identify the associative memory network of 16 young, healthy participants. This network, based around the hippocampus, glues together things such as sights, places, sounds and time to form a memory, explains neuroscientist Joel Voss of Northwestern University, a senior author of the paper.

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Yes, science shows creative people are more likely to be crazy - Barking Up The Wrong Tree

Yes, science shows creative people are more likely to be crazy - Barking Up The Wrong Tree | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

 In studies of deceased writers— based on their letters, medical records, and published biographies— and in studies of talented living writers, mental illness is prevalent. For example, fiction writers are fully ten times more likely to be bipolar than the general population, and poets are an amazing forty times more likely to struggle with the disorder. Based on statistics like these, psychologist Daniel Nettle writes, “It is hard to avoid the conclusion that most of the canon of Western culture was produced by people with a touch of madness.” Essayist Brooke Allen does Nettle one better: “The Western literary tradition, it seems, has been dominated by a sorry collection of alcoholics, compulsive gamblers, manic-depressives, sexual predators, and various unfortunate combinations of two, three, or even all of the above.” In psychiatrist Arnold Ludwig’s massive study of mental illness and creativity, The Price of Greatness, he found an 87 percent rate of psychiatric disorders in eminent poets and a 77 percent rate in eminent fiction writers— far higher than the rates he found among high achievers in nonartistic fields such as business, science, politics, and the military. Even college students who sign up for poetry-writing seminars have more bipolar traits than college students generally. Creative writers are also at increased risk of unipolar depression and are more likely to suffer from psychoses such as schizophrenia. It is, therefore, not surprising that eminent writers are also much more likely to abuse alcohol and drugs, spend time in psychiatric hospitals, and kill themselves.Everything you need to know about Yes, science shows creative people are more likely to be crani.

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Sully (2016) e il decision making in situazioni di rischio: il volo US Airways 1549

Sully (2016) e il decision making in situazioni di rischio: il volo US Airways 1549 | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Euristica, intuizione esperta o fortuna? Nel miracolo sull’Hudson quali sono stati i fattori che hanno portato il comandante Sully a fare la scelta giusta?

Oche canadesi: tanto è bastato per lasciare in grossi guai il comandante Chesley Sullenberger, Sully, che si è ritrovato sui cieli di New York con un Airbus a motori spenti e 155 persone da riportare a terra. Il lieto fine del volo US Airways 1549 è ormai storia, a questo punto possiamo chiederci quali sono i processi che hanno portato il comandante a prendere la decisione giusta in così poco tempo.

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