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Scelte economiche tra razionalità ed emotività. | Casa Imbastita ...

Scelte economiche tra razionalità ed emotività. | Casa Imbastita ... | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
I

Le scelte economiche si basano solo sulla razionalità perfetta o sono influenzate da fattori diversi?

Sappiamo sempre qual è la scelta migliore e più conveniente quando decidiamo di spendere i nostri soldi?

Quanto incide l’emotività nelle scelte economiche, in situazione di crisi e di incertezza,  che gli imprenditori fanno per la propria azienda?

Secondo la teoria classica, esiste un homo oeconomicus in grado di effettuare tutte le scelte di tipo economico basandosi esclusivamente su fattori razionali. In realtà tale figura è solamente teorica e molti studi, partendo da Simon (Teoria della “razionalità limitata”) hanno dimostrato che l’uomo, nell’assumere decisioni, si fa condurre da una serie di altri elementi che hanno poco a che fare con la razionalità.

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How I overcame my fear of cold calling

How I overcame my fear of cold calling | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
The place to start with any behaviour change situation is to break it down.

It just doesn’t come easily to me, calling people and interrupting their day. Whether it’s my introverted nature or star sign, I have always had a mental block against cold calling – a problem when you are running a business and need to spread the word.

Pretty clearly I needed to change my behaviour. Putting aside “doctors make the worst patients and teachers the worse students”, I became my very own case study of how to change behaviour. Here’s how I did it.

 Behaviour change model

The place to start with any behaviour change situation is to break it down into four questions:

1. What’s the current behaviour? i.e. Not cold calling

2. What’s the desired behaviour? i.e. Cold calling six businesses a week over across at least three days

3. What are the barriers to change?

4. What are the enablers of change?

This is the model I developed and use with clients to get to the heart of the problem and design solutions.

 
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Tools of behavioral finance can complement regulation

Tools of behavioral finance can complement regulation | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

he following are remarks given by Thomas M. Selman, executive vice president for regulatory policy for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc., at the LIMRA/LOMA 2015 Regulatory Compliance Exchange in Arlington, Va., on March 18.

On March 30, 1980, the rock-and-roll band Van Halen held a concert in the gymnasium of the University of Southern Colorado as part of its “Party "til You Die Tour.” Following the concert, the university hosted a dinner for Van Halen, with linens and silverware. According to university officials, the band “proceeded to act like a bunch of animals. They ate the lasagna with their hands, threw the food around the room, smashed the food on the walls and each other.” The carpet, drapes and paint in the dining room had to be refurbished. The band's dressing room also was damaged. The university subsequently banned most campus concerts.

Later reports revealed that Van Halen trashed the dining and dressing rooms because of brown M&Ms. Van Halen's contract demanded a variety of munchies, including M&Ms, with the following proviso: “WARNING: ABSOLUTELY NO BROWN ONES.” The university had overlooked this clause and served brown M&Ms. For this indignity the band destroyed university property.

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Music Enrichment Programs Improve the Neural Encoding of Speech in At-Risk Children

Abstract

Musicians are often reported to have enhanced neurophysiological functions, especially in the auditory system. Musical training is thought to improve nervous system function by focusing attention on meaningful acoustic cues, and these improvements in auditory processing cascade to language and cognitive skills. Correlational studies have reported musician enhancements in a variety of populations across the life span. In light of these reports, educators are considering the potential for co-curricular music programs to provide auditory-cognitive enrichment to children during critical developmental years. To date, however, no studies have evaluated biological changes following participation in existing, successful music education programs. We used a randomized control design to investigate whether community music participation induces a tangible change in auditory processing. The community music training was a longstanding and successful program that provides free music instruction to children from underserved backgrounds who stand at high risk for learning and social problems. Children who completed 2 years of music training had a stronger neurophysiological distinction of stop consonants, a neural mechanism linked to reading and language skills. One year of training was insufficient to elicit changes in nervous system function; beyond 1 year, however, greater amounts of instrumental music training were associated with larger gains in neural processing. We therefore provide the first direct evidence that community music programs enhance the neural processing of speech in at-risk children, suggesting that active and repeated engagement with sound changes neural function.

 
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What Is Intrinsic Motivation?

What Is Intrinsic Motivation? | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

When you're intrinsically motivated to accomplish something, you have an internal desire to achieve it; you'll initiate the activity for its own sake, because it's interesting and satisfying in itself. Intrinsic motivation stands in direct contrast to extrinsicmotivation, which happens when some external force (like a boss), influences, motivates or requires you to do something. Because of the difference between intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, we can, generally speaking, separate activities into two different buckets: tasks that we want to do and tasks that we have to do. Have you ever wondered why it's so much easier to get something done when we want to do it? (Or conversely, why it's so difficult to accomplish something even though we know we "have to?") It all boils down to motivation — and more specifically, the dichotomy between intrinsic motivators and extrinsic motivators. Let's take a deeper look and explore the role intrinsic motivators can play in business performance.As we established above, it seems much easier to get things done when we're intrinsically motivated to do them, and research supports that hunch. Over the years, studies have shown that intrinsic motivators are much more powerful than extrinsic motivators.

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Neural Mechanisms of Gain–Loss Asymmetry in Temporal Discounting

Abstract

Humans typically discount future gains more than losses. This phenomenon is referred to as the “sign effect” in experimental and behavioral economics. Although recent studies have reported associations between the sign effect and important social problems, such as obesity and incurring multiple debts, the biological basis for this phenomenon remains poorly understood. Here, we hypothesized that enhanced loss-related neural processing in magnitude and/or delay representation are causes of the sign effect. We examined participants performing intertemporal choice tasks involving future gains or losses and compared the brain activity of those who exhibited the sign effect and those who did not. When predicting future losses, significant differences were apparent between the two participant groups in terms of striatal activity representing delay length and in insular activity representing sensitivity to magnitude. Furthermore, participants with the sign effect exhibited a greater insular response to the magnitude of loss than to that of gain, and also a greater striatal response to the delay of loss than to that of gain. These findings may provide a new biological perspective for the development of novel treatments and preventive measures for social problems associated with the sign effect.

 
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The Functional and Structural Neural Basis of Individual Differences in Loss Aversion

Abstract

Decision making under risk entails the anticipation of prospective outcomes, typically leading to the greater sensitivity to losses than gains known as loss aversion. Previous studies on the neural bases of choice-outcome anticipation and loss aversion provided inconsistent results, showing either bidirectional mesolimbic responses of activation for gains and deactivation for losses, or a specific amygdala involvement in processing losses. Here we focused on loss aversion with the aim to address interindividual differences in the neural bases of choice-outcome anticipation. Fifty-six healthy human participants accepted or rejected 104 mixed gambles offering equal (50%) chances of gaining or losing different amounts of money while their brain activity was measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We report both bidirectional and gain/loss-specific responses while evaluating risky gambles, with amygdala and posterior insula specifically tracking the magnitude of potential losses. At the individual level, loss aversion was reflected both in limbic fMRI responses and in gray matter volume in a structural amygdala–thalamus–striatum network, in which the volume of the “output” centromedial amygdala nuclei mediating avoidance behavior was negatively correlated with monetary performance. We conclude that outcome anticipation and ensuing loss aversion involve multiple neural systems, showing functional and structural individual variability directly related to the actual financial outcomes of choices. By supporting the simultaneous involvement of both appetitive and aversive processing in economic decision making, these results contribute to the interpretation of existing inconsistencies on the neural bases of anticipating choice outcomes.

 
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Prospect Theory for Online Financial Trading

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of them have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the loss aversion phenomenon, an essence in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the effect of loss aversion. Moreover, we introduce three risk-adjusted metrics inspired by prospect theory to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading, where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners statistically based on their historical trading behavior rather than their trading performance at any given point in time.
  
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Quantum Information Biology: from information interpretation of quantum mechanics to applications in molecular biology and cognitive psychology

We discuss foundational issues of quantum information biology (QIB) -- one of the most successful applications of the quantum formalism outside of physics. QIB provides a multi-scale model of information processing in bio-systems: from proteins and cells to cognitive and social systems. This theory has to be sharply distinguished from "traditional quantum biophysics". The latter is about quantum bio-physical processes, e.g., in cells or brains. QIB models the dynamics of information states of bio-systems. It is based on the quantum-like paradigm: complex bio-systems process information in accordance with the laws of quantum information and probability. This paradigm is supported by plenty of statistical bio-data collected at all scales, from molecular biology and genetics/epigenetics to cognitive psychology and behavioral economics. We argue that the information interpretation of quantum mechanics (its various forms were elaborated by Zeilinger and Brukner, Fuchs and Mermin, and D' Ariano) is the most natural interpretation of QIB. We also point out that QBIsm (Quantum Bayesianism) can serve to find a proper interpretation of bio-quantum probabilities. Biologically QIB is based on two principles: a) adaptivity; b) openness (bio-systems are fundamentally open). These principles are mathematically represented in the framework of a novel formalism -- quantum adaptive dynamics which, in particular, contains the standard theory of open quantum systems as a special case of adaptivity (to environment).

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Online Social Network Analysis: A Survey of Research Applications in Computer Science

The emergence and popularization of online social networks suddenly made available a large amount of data from social organization, interaction and human behaviour. All this information opens new perspectives and challenges to the study of social systems, being of interest to many fields. Although most online social networks are recent (less than fifteen years old), a vast amount of scientific papers was already published on this topic, dealing with a broad range of analytical methods and applications. This work describes how computational researches have approached this subject and the methods used to analyse such systems. Founded on a wide though non-exaustive review of the literature, a taxonomy is proposed to classify and describe different categories of research. Each research category is described and the main works, discoveries and perspectives are highlighted.
  
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The Pychology of Economic Forecasting

Is the imprecision of economic forecasts due to the judgments of ‘biased’ decision makers? This study explores decision-making among expert forecasters in Sweden using semi-structured interviews. The results indicate that forecasters’ decision
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Outsmart Your Own Biases

Outsmart Your Own Biases | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

How to broaden your thinking and make better decisions. 

Suppose you’re evaluating a job candidate to lead a new office in a different country. On paper this is by far the most qualified person you’ve seen. Her responses to your interview questions are flawless. She has impeccable social skills. Still, something doesn’t feel right. You can’t put your finger on what—you just have a sense. How do you decide whether to hire her?

You might trust your intuition, which has guided you well in the past, and send her on her way. That’s what most executives say they’d do when we pose this scenario in our classes on managerial decision making. The problem is, unless you occasionally go against your gut, you haven’t put your intuition to the test. You can’t really know it’s helping you make good choices if you’ve never seen what happens when you ignore it.

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Computational Neuropsychology, Studying Emergence | SciTech Connect

Computational Neuropsychology, Studying Emergence | SciTech Connect | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Warren Tryon, author of Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychotherapy, dives into computational neuropsychology, discussing emergence and synaptic reorganization.

It is not enough to call for the study of emergence as I have done in my appeal for a paradigm shift in my book,Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychotherapy: Network Principles for a Unified Theory and in some of my previous blogs. One must also provide tools and some direction for using them to get the ball rolling.

Every parallel-distributed processing connectionist neural network (PDP-CNN) model that I have encountered has focused on the properties of the fully trained “adult” model rather than the process by which these properties emerged. This is because the authors of these simulations have presented their models as demonstration proofs that artificial neural networks are capable of performing certain functions. I agree that this is a necessary first step. It would be premature to study the emergent process unless, or until, one first demonstrated that the network in question is capable of generating the desirable psychological properties. But now that so many psychological and behavioral phenomena have been effectively simulated using PDP-CNN models, it is time to ask how these properties emerge. This line of inquiry is needed to generate full scientific explanations of these psychological and behavioral phenomena.

 
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How Does Aging Affect Financial Decision Making? | Center for Retirement Research

How Does Aging Affect Financial Decision Making? | Center for Retirement Research | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Abstract: The brief’s key findings are: *With the shift from traditional pensions to 401(k) plans, the welfare of retirees depends increasingly on their ability to make sound financial decisions. *Using a dataset that follows a group of older individuals in the Chicago area, the analysis examines how aging affects financial decision making. *Participants who suffer cognitive decline experience a reduction in their financial literacy but no change in their confidence in managing their money. *Perhaps not surprisingly then, while they are more likely to get help with financial decisions, more than half retain primary responsibility for managing their money. 
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The role of behavioral economic incentive design and demographic characteristics in financial incentive-based approaches to changing health behavio... - PubMed - NCBI

The role of behavioral economic incentive design and demographic characteristics in financial incentive-based approaches to changing health behavio... - PubMed - NCBI | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Abstract

Objective . To evaluate the use of behavioral economics to design financial incentives to promote health behavior change and to explore associations with demographic characteristics. Data Source . Studies performed by the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics at the University of Pennsylvania published between January 2006 and March 2014. Study Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria . Randomized, controlled trials with available participant-level data. Studies that did not use financial incentives to promote health behavior change were excluded. Data Extraction . Participant-level data from seven studies were pooled. Data Synthesis . Meta-analysis on the pooled sample using a random-effects model with interaction terms to examine treatment effects and whether they varied by incentive structure or demographic characteristics. Results . The pooled study sample comprised 1403 participants, of whom 35% were female, 70% were white, 24% were black, and the mean age was 48 years (standard deviation 11.2 years). In the fully adjusted model, participants offered financial incentives had higher odds of behavior change (odds ratio [OR]: 3.96; p < .01) when compared to control. There were no significant interactions between financial incentives and gender, age, race, income, or education. When further adjusting for incentive structure, blacks had higher odds than whites of achieving behavior change (OR: 1.67; p < .05) with a conditional payment. Compared to lower-income participants, higher-income participants had lower odds of behavior change (OR: 0.46; p = .01) with a regret lottery. Conclusion . Financial incentives designed using concepts from behavioral economics were effective for promoting health behavior change. There were no large and consistent relationships between the effectiveness of financial incentives and observable demographic characteristics. Second-order examinations of incentive structure suggest potential relationships among the effectiveness of financial incentives, incentive structure, and the demographic characteristics of race and income.

 

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Behavioural economics meets development economics [podcast]

Behavioural economics meets development economics [podcast] | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

What is behavioural economics, and what does it have to do with development?

In the latest Development Drums podcast, I discuss this with Varun Gauri, who was co-editor of the recent World Development Report, Mind Society and Behaviour, one of the most accessible and widely-read World Development Reports of recent years.

According to Dr Gauri, economists recognise that many resources are scarce (labour, capital, land etc) but fail to acknowledge that cognition is also scarce. And because of this, people routinely make decisions which are bad for them.

Dr Gauri argues that these problems affect people living in poverty at least as much as everyone else, and probably more. The poor do not have access to systems which simplify decision making (e.g. automatic payroll deductions) and the effects of bad decisions can be disproportionate.

In the podcast we discuss the implications for development cooperation. Dr Gauri argues that there are implications for improved service delivery, for international negotiations, and perhaps for a range of other policies. He also points out that these biases affect the staff of development agencies as much as they do everyone else.  He rejects my suggestion that the issues raised by behavioural economics are less important to development than the issues addressed by conventional economics.

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Five Curious Facts about Music and Brain Damage

Five Curious Facts about Music and Brain Damage | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

What happens if a musician experiences some sort of brain damage? Music is the ultimate “brain” activity, as it involves the motor, visual, auditory, audiovisual, somatosensory, parietal and frontal areas in both hemispheres and the cerebellum. By being such a “complete” brain activity, music has a lot of beneficial effects on the brain. Amid the countless examples of the virtues of music, let’s mention a new study published in the Journal of Neuroscience, which determined that kids who took music lessons for two years did not just witness an improvement in their abilities to play their instrument, but they also processed language more easily: in fact, learning music improves the brain’s ability to process pitch, timing and timbre, which actually helps pick up language too.

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Psychologists’ Food Fight Over Replication of “Important Findings” 

Psychologists’ Food Fight Over Replication of “Important Findings”  | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Psychologists are up in arms over, of all things, the editorial process that led to the recent publication of a special issue of the journal Social Psychology.This may seem like a classic case of ivory tower navel gazing, but its impact extends far beyond academia. The issue attempts to replicate 27 “important findings in social psychology.” Replication—repeating an experiment as closely as possible to see whether you get the same results—is a cornerstone of the scientific method. Replication of experiments is vital not only because it can detect the rare cases of outright fraud, but also because it guards against uncritical acceptance of findings that were actually inadvertent false positives, helps researchers refine experimental techniques, and affirms the existence of new facts that scientific theories must be able to explain.

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Tax Compliance and Public Goods Provision -- An Agent-based Econophysics Approach

We calculate the dynamics of tax evasion within a multi-agent econophysics model which is adopted from the theory of magnetism and previously has been shown to capture the main characteristics from agent-based based models which build on the standard Allingham and Sandmo approach. In particular, we implement a feedback of public goods provision on the decision-making of selfish agents which aim to pursue their self interest. Our results imply that such a feedback enhances the moral attitude of selfish agents thus reducing the percentage of tax evasion. Two parameters govern the behavior of selfish agents, (i) the rate of adaption to changes in public goods provision and (ii) the threshold of perception of public goods provision. Furtheron we analyze the tax evasion dynamics for different agent co mpositions and under the feedback of public goods provision. We conclude that policymakers may enhance tax compliance behavior via the threshold of perception by means of targeted public relations.

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Time-Inconsistent Planning: A Computational Problem in Behavioral Economics

In many settings, people exhibit behavior that is inconsistent across time --- we allocate a block of time to get work done and then procrastinate, or put effort into a project and then later fail to complete it. An active line of research in behavioral economics and related fields has developed and analyzed models for this type of time-inconsistent behavior. 
Here we propose a graph-theoretic model of tasks and goals, in which dependencies among actions are represented by a directed graph, and a time-inconsistent agent constructs a path through this graph. We first show how instances of this path-finding problem on different input graphs can reconstruct a wide range of qualitative phenomena observed in the literature on time-inconsistency, including procrastination, abandonment of long-range tasks, and the benefits of reduced sets of choices. We then explore a set of analyses that quantify over the set of all graphs; among other results, we find that in any graph, there can be only polynomially many distinct forms of time-inconsistent behavior; and any graph in which a time-inconsistent agent incurs significantly more cost than an optimal agent must contain a large "procrastination" structure as a minor. Finally, we use this graph-theoretic model to explore ways in which tasks can be designed to help motivate agents to reach designated goals.

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Improving detection of influential nodes in complex networks

Recently an increasing amount of research is devoted to the question of how the most influential nodes (seeds) can be found effectively in a complex network. There are a number of measures proposed for this purpose, for instance, high-degree centrality measure reflects the importance of the network topology and has a reasonable runtime performance to find a set of nodes with highest degree, but they do not have a satisfactory dissemination potentiality in the network due to having many common neighbors (CN(1)) and common neighbors of neighbors (CN(2)). This flaw holds in other measures as well. In this paper, we compare high-degree centrality measure with other well-known measures using ten datasets in order to find a proportion for the common seeds in the seed sets obtained by them. We, thereof, propose an improved high-degree centrality measure (named \textit{DegreeDistance}) and improve it to enhance accuracy in two phases, FIDD and SIDD, by put a threshold on the number of common neighbors of already-selected seed nodes and a non-seed node which is under investigation to be selected as a seed as well as considering the influence score of seed nodes directly or through their common neighbors over the non-seed node. To evaluate the accuracy and runtime performance of DegreeDistance, FIDD, and SIDD, they are applied to eight large-scale networks and it finally turns out that SIDD dramatically outperforms other well-known measures and evinces comparatively more accurate performance in identifying the most influential nodes.
  
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Ants Swarm Like Brains Think - Issue 23: Dominoes - Nautilus

Ants Swarm Like Brains Think - Issue 23: Dominoes - Nautilus | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Deborah Gordon spent the morning of August 27 watching a group of harvester ants foraging for seeds outside the dusty town of Rodeo, N.M. Long before the first rays of sun hit the desert floor, a group of patroller ants was already on the move. Their task was to find out whether the area near the nest was free from flash floods, high winds, and predators. If they didn’t return to the nest, departing foragers would know it wasn’t safe to go search for food.

When the patrollers returned and the first foragers did leave, they scattered in all directions, hunting for the fat-laden, energy-rich seeds on which the colony depends. Other foragers waited in the entrance of the nest for the first wave to return. If lots of food were nearby, foragers would return and depart quickly, creating a massive chain reaction. If food was scarce, however, the second group of foragers might not leave the nest at all.

“It’s a brilliant system. The ants can take advantage of sudden windfalls of food but they don’t waste energy and resources if there’s nothing there,” said Gordon, who is an ecologist at Stanford University.

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Konstantinos Katsikopoulos on decision theory - YouTube

At the Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality junior researchers discuss how people make everyday decisions. This forum for PhD students and postdocs took place from July 3 2012 at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. In his talk Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, professor at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, argues that standard decision theory should be combined with rules of thumb and how this can be achieved. 

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What Works Cities

What Works Cities | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

BUT THEY SHARE THE SAME MISSION:
TO SERVE CITIZENS IN THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAYS POSSIBLE.

Join leading cities across America that are using data and evidence to improve results for their residents.

What Works Cities helps you build on the work you're doing—to go further with what you've got.

What Works Cities is designed to accelerate Cities’ use of data and evidence to improve people’s lives. Bloomberg Philanthropies has assembled an unparalleled group of leading practitioners to focus on your goals and your citizens. They are, simply, world-class partners for world-class cities. Behavioural Insights Team Harvard Kennedy School Government Performance Lab Results for America …
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Destructive Behavior in a Fragile Public Good Game

Abstract: Socially destructive behavior in a public good environment - like damaging public goods - is an underexposed phenomenon in economics. In an experiment we investigate whether such behavior can be influenced by the very nature of an environment. To that purpose we use a Fragile Public Good (FPG) game which puts the opportunity for destructive behavior (taking) on a level playing field with constructive behavior (contributing). We find substantial evidence of destructive decisions, sometimes leading to sour relationships characterized by persistent hurtful behavior. While positive framing induces fewer destructive decisions, shifting the selfish Nash towards minimal taking doubles its share to more than 20%. Female subjects are found to be more inclined to use destructive decisions. Finally, subjects’ social value orientation turns out to be partly predictive of (at least initial) destructive choices.

 

Downloads: (external link)
ftp://ftp.gate.cnrs.fr/RePEc/2014/1429.pdf 

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