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Behavioral Economics Improve Workforce Health Decisions

Behavioral Economics Improve Workforce Health Decisions | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Research about behavioral economics—the study of how people make choices, drawing on insights from psychology and economics—can be extremely useful in designing and communicating employee health plans.

Many health decisions that should be rational are not. In fact, irrational decisions that involve health benefits and health care are prevalent throughout peoples’ lives. The following are a few examples:

• Although children receive numerous public health messages, many young adults still become tobacco and drug users and/or obese and diabetic.

• While people understand the value of preventive health care and like the fact that many health plans now offer preventive care services without deductibles, co-payments or co-insurance, many still fail to get free health screenings or physical exams.

• Few consumers access the substantial amount of data that is available about hospital costs and mortality, readmission and hospital-acquired infection rates when they make decisions about hospitals and surgeons.

• Many people with addictions relapse into addictive behavior following lengthy periods of abstinence and sobriety.

• When some people reach age 65, they ask a friend which of the many Medicare plans to purchase instead of researching the options and making an informed decision.

In each of these examples, behavioral biases cloud rational judgment. Understanding these tendencies can help organizations redesign how they configure and communicate their health benefit plans to nudge people toward better decisions that produce better outcomes for participants and employers.

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Using Behavioral Science Insights to Make Government More Effective, Simpler, and More People-Friendly

Using Behavioral Science Insights to Make Government More Effective, Simpler, and More People-Friendly | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
This month marks one full year since the launch of the first-ever Social and Behavioral Sciences Team (SBST), which was created in response to the President’s call to make government programs more effective and efficient. SBST had a successful first year, launching a wide variety of evidence-based pilots. To mark the one-year anniversary of SBST, the team met with President Obama last Friday.
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Old economic models couldn't predict the recession. Time for new ones.

Old economic models couldn't predict the recession. Time for new ones. | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Part of a continuing series about complexity science by the Santa Fe Institute and The Christian Science Monitor, generously supported by Arizona State University. The 2008 financial crisis – which cost the United States economy between $6 trillion to $14 trillion and the world economy a great deal more – shook the world of finance to its foundation. It hit the most vulnerable particularly hard, as unemployment in the US doubled from 5 to 10 percent, and in several countries in southern Europe, 1 in 4 people who want a job are still unable to find work – roughly the unemployment rate the US experienced during the Great Depression. Recommended: Foreign companies that beat Silicon Valley at its own game It’s now old hat to point out that very few experts saw it coming. We shouldn’t be too hard on them, though. Surprisingly, the US investment in developing a better theoretical understanding of the economy is very small – around $50 million in annual funding from the National Science Foundation – or just 0.0005 percent of a $10 trillion crisis. Foreign companies that beat Silicon Valley at its own game PHOTOS OF THE DAY Photos of the day 07/20

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Surprising that most economic models were not already this sophisticated.
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The Auditory Cortex of Hearing and Deaf People are Almost Identical

The Auditory Cortex of Hearing and Deaf People are Almost Identical | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Neuroscience News has recent neuroscience research articles, brain research news, neurology studies and neuroscience resources for neuroscientists, students, and science fans and is always free to join. Our neuroscience social network has science groups, discussion forums, free books, resources, science videos and more.
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On the quality of emergence
in complex collective systems

On the quality of emergence in complex collective systems.
Abstract A number of elements towards a classification of the quality of emergence in emergent collective systems are provided. By using those elements, several classes of emergent systems are exemplified, ranging from simple aggregations of simple parts up to complex organizations of complex collective systems. In so doing, the factors likely to play a a significant role in the persistence of emergence and its opposite are highlighted. From this, new elements for discussion are identified also considering elements from the System of Leibniz.
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Extending the Recognition Heuristic: A Three-State Model by Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Michael Smithson :: SSRN

Extending the Recognition Heuristic: A Three-State Model by Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Michael Smithson :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: According to the recognition heuristic, people infer that an object they recognize has a higher value on a criterion of interest than an object they do not recognize. This model has been analyzed mathematically and conditions for the less-is-more effect -- where recognizing fewer objects increases inferential accuracy -- have been derived. We propose an extension of the heuristic that incorporates the empirical finding that people recognize some objects for which they believe they have low criterion value. We call these recognized objects unsatisfying, in contrast to recognized-satisfying objects which the inference-maker believes to have a high criterion value. We analyze the model and provide a number of results: First, we derive closed-form expressions for the parameters of our model, as well as for the parameters of the original model, in terms of the distributions of recognition and other cues over the objects. Second, we use the expressions to analyze the less-is-more effect for both models. Third, we use the expressions to calculate and compare the accuracy of the two models and derive conditions under which the models equal or surpass the accuracy of random inference. Our results are general and can thus be linked to any model of recognition-based inference.

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As-If Behavioral Economics: Neoclassical Economics in Disguise? by Nathan Berg, Gerd Gigerenzer :: SSRN

As-If Behavioral Economics: Neoclassical Economics in Disguise? by Nathan Berg, Gerd Gigerenzer :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: For a research program that counts improved empirical realism among its primary goals, it is surprising that behavioral economics appears indistinguishable from neoclassical economics in its reliance on “as-if” arguments. “As-if” arguments are frequently put forward in behavioral economics to justify “psychological” models that add new parameters to fit decision outcome data rather than specifying more realistic or empirically supported psychological processes that genuinely explain these data. Another striking similarity is that both behavioral and neoclassical research programs refer to a common set of axiomatic norms without subjecting them to empirical investigation. Notably missing is investigation of whether people who deviate from axiomatic rationality face economically significant losses. Despite producing prolific documentation of deviations from neoclassical norms, behavioral economics has produced almost no evidence that deviations are correlated with lower earnings, lower happiness, impaired health, inaccurate beliefs, or shorter lives. We argue for an alternative non-axiomatic approach to normative analysis focused on veridical descriptions of decision process and a matching principle – between behavioral strategies and the environments in which they are used – referred to as ecological rationality. To make behavioral economics, or psychology and economics, a more rigorously empirical science will require less effort spent extending “as-if” utility theory to account for biases and deviations, and substantially more careful observation of successful decision makers in their respective domains.

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La paper compliance in materia 231

La paper compliance in materia 231 | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Corte di Cassazione, sezione VI, 17 marzo 2016 (ud. 12 febbraio 2016), n. 11442 Interessante il passaggio motivazionale sulla c.d. paper compliance: Le Sezioni unite, nell'affermare che il sistema normativo introdotto dal decreto legislativo n. 231 del 2001, coniugando i tratti dell'ordinamento penale e di quello amministrativo, configura un tertium genus di responsabilità, compatibile con i principi costituzionali di responsabilità per fatto proprio e di colpevolezza, ha chiarito, in tema di responsabilità dell'ente derivante da persone che esercitano funzioni apicali, che grava sulla pubblica accusa l'onere di dimostrare l'esistenza dell'illecito dell'ente, mentre su quest'ultimo incombe l'onere, con effetti liberatori, di dimostrare di aver adottato ed efficacemente attuato, prima della commissione del reato, modelli di organizzazione e di gestione idonei a prevenire reati della specie di quello verificatosi (S.U, n. 38343 del 24 aprile 2014, Espenhahn). Fatte queste premesse, va osservato che nel caso in esame il c.d. modello 231 fu approvato dalla (Y) s.p.a. nel giugno 2004. In sede di appello, la ricorrente aveva contestato le conclusioni del primo giudice in ordine all'inidoneità del suddetto modello. La sentenza impugnata perviene al giudizio di inidoneità di tutte le cautele adottate a far data dal 2001 dalla (Y) s.p.a. - e quindi anche di quelle contenute nel modello -, evidenziandone le carenze, consistite nella previsione di misure preventive solo «sulla carta» e nell'assenza di alcun tipo di garanzia in grado di impedire o quanto meno rendere più difficile la partecipazione dei rappresentanti della (Y) s.p.a. alla complessiva corruzione attuata per aggiudicarsi i vari «treni» (quali, il comitato di controllo, l'internal audit, ecc.). Si tratta di un giudizio di fatto non affetto dai vizi denunciati, in quanto la sentenza impugnata non ha tratto la prova dell'inidoneità del modello dalla mera commissione del reato di corruzione dai rappresentanti dell'ente. La Corte di appello, dopo aver esaminato le cautele organizzative apprestate e averne stabilito la inidoneità, ha utilizzato quale argomento rafforzativo della sussistenza della responsabilità dell'ente quello di aver adottato una politica aziendale di mero formalismo cartolare («paper compliance policy»), come era dato trarre dalla sistematica violazione da parte dei suoi responsabili della normativa penale e dall'entità dei fondi impiegati nelle dazioni corruttive. Invero, nel caso in esame, dal giugno 2004 sino al dicembre 2004, nonostante l'adozione del modello, si erano susseguite - senza alcuna soluzione di continuità rispetto a quanto avvenuto in precedenza - le attività corruttive realizzate da (Y) s.p.a. attraverso i suoi intermediari, che subivano una sospensione solo a seguito dell'inizio delle investigazioni penali.

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Immune System Affects and Controls Social Behavior

Immune System Affects and Controls Social Behavior | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

The researchers note that a malfunctioning immune system may be responsible for “social deficits in numerous neurological and psychiatric disorders.” But exactly what this might mean for autism and other specific conditions requires further investigation. NeuroscienceNews.com image is adapted from the University of Virginia School of Medicine press release. The UVA researchers have shown that a specific immune molecule, interferon gamma, seems to be critical for social behavior and that a variety of creatures, such as flies, zebrafish, mice and rats, activate interferon gamma responses when they are social. Normally, this molecule is produced by the immune system in response to bacteria, viruses or parasites. Blocking the molecule in mice using genetic modification made regions of the brain hyperactive, causing the mice to become less social. Restoring the molecule restored the brain connectivity and behavior to normal. In a paper outlining their findings, the researchers note the immune molecule plays a “profound role in maintaining proper social function.”

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RAGIONARE SU PROBABILITA’, POSSIBILITA’ E FREQUEZE

Lo scopo di questa dispensa è quella di presentare alcuni recenti sviluppi della ricerca sul ragionamento probabilistico. Come abbiamo visto nella lezione precedente (Lezione 6 del Blocco “Ragionamento”), negli ultimi decenni numerose ricerche sperimentali hanno dimostrato i limiti delle nostre capacità di valutare eventi incerti. In particolare, i lavori di Kahneman e Tversky hanno dimostrato che i nostri giudizi probabilistici sono spesso guidati da procedure euristiche (v. ad es. Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) che, in qualche caso, ci portano a formulare giudizi probabilistici sistematicamente scorretti (i cosiddetti “biases” di giudizio). Basti ricordare a questo proposito, la fallacia della congiunzione prodotta dall’attivazione dell’euristica della disponibilità (v. il problema di Linda, Lezione 6 e Capitolo 3 di Girotto, 1994). La dimostrazione sperimentale dei limiti del nostro ragionamento ha contribuito a mettere in crisi la visione tradizionale del pensiero umano (quella difesa dalla teoria della scelta razionale), che presupponeva una nostra impeccabile capacità di fornire giudizi probabilistici corretti (v. per una rassegna, Piattelli-Palmarini, 1994). Negli ultimi anni, però, alcuni ricercatori (es. Cosmides & Tooby, 1996; Gigerenzer, 2003; Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995) hanno proposto una teoria ancora più pessimistica del ragionamento probabilistico. 
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» Corruption: Can a behavioural approach shift the dial? | The Behavioural Insights Team

» Corruption: Can a behavioural approach shift the dial? | The Behavioural Insights Team | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
The first global summit on anti-corruption was held in London in May. The summit brought together world leaders, businesses, academics, civil society and international organisations to discuss the practical steps that could be taken to tackle corruption across the world. Here at BIT, we think that behavioural science can make an important contribution to anti-corruption. David Halpern, our CEO, articulated this recently in his contribution to the Anti-Corruption Manifesto. In order to explore the behavioural angles to corrupt practices in a range of policy domains, we organised a roundtable at the recent Behavioural Exchange conference. We were joined by leading academics and practitioners specialising in behavioural science and corruption. Here are six interesting points that were discussed:
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Narrativity from the Perspectives of Economics and Philosophy: Davis, Ross, Multipleselves Models... and Behavioral Economics

Abstract: Narrativity broadly refers to the way humans construct and use stories, be them the widely known ones in a given culture or the more private ones people tell to each other or to themselves. The main goal of this paper is to clarify the extent to which the notion of narrativity can play a role in economic analysis with respect to the representation of economic agents in models of individual behaviors. To do so, we scrutinize a set of contributions from a twofold perspective. From the perspective of economics, we seek to clarify the issues regarding which we, as economists, should be interest in narrativity. From the perspective of philosophy, we, as economic methodologists or philosopher of economics, seek to clarify the conceptual issues inherent to the notion of narrativity that are not trivial or can be of some use for economic analysis. To some extent, this twofold perspective on narrativity and economics has already been taken by John Davis (2009; 2011) and Don Ross (2005; 2014), who use the notion of narrativity to account for individuals’ sense of a unified self and identity, notably with respect to the recent surge of multipleselves models in economics. We propose to further Davis’ and Ross’ efforts in at least three respects: firstly, through a comparative study of their contributions focused on narrativity from the perspective of economics; secondly, by discussing the connections between their contributions and the set of existing contributions related to narrativity in behavioral economics that none of them discuss; and, thirdly, by taking, at least for the sake of argument, a philosophically critical perspective on narrativity.
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Neuroscienze cognitive: plasticità, variabilità, dimensione storica

Neuroscienze cognitive: plasticità, variabilità, dimensione storica | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Le Neuroscienze cognitive hanno l’ambizioso obiettivo teorico di individuare e comprendere i meccanismi neurobiologici della mente,
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People who meditate are more aware of their unconscious brain

People who meditate are more aware of their unconscious brain | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

People who meditate are more aware of their unconscious brain activity – or so a new take on a classic “free will” experiment suggests. The results hint that the feeling of conscious control over our actions can vary – and provide more clues to understanding the complex nature of free will. The famous experiment that challenged our notions of free will was first done in 1983 by neuroscientist Benjamin Libet. It involved measuring electrical activity in someone’s brain while asking them to press a button, whenever they like, while they watch a special clock that allows them to note the time precisely. Typically people feel like they decide to press the button about 200 milliseconds before their finger moves – but the electrodes reveal activity in the part of their brain that controls movement occurs a further 350 milliseconds before they feel they make that decision. This suggests that in fact it is the unconscious brain that “decides” when to press the button. In the new study, a team at the University of Sussex in Brighton, UK, did a slimmed-down version of the experiment (omitting the brain electrodes), with 57 volunteers, 11 of whom regularly practised mindfulness mediation. The meditators had a longer gap in time between when they felt like they decided to move their finger and when it physically moved – 149 compared with 68 milliseconds for the other people.

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An Introduction to Behavioral Economics *

An Introduction to Behavioral Economics * | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Dr Alain Samson's Introduction to Behavioral Economics - Behavioral Science for Beginners

Behavioral economics (BE) uses psychological experimentation to develop theories about human decision making and has identified a range of biases as a result of the way people think and feel. BE is trying to change the way economists think about people’s perceptions of value and expressed preferences. According to BE, people are not always self-interested, benefits maximizing, and costs minimizing individuals with stable preferences—our thinking is subject to insufficient knowledge, feedback, and processing capability, which often involves uncertainty and is affected by the context in which we make decisions. Most of our choices are not the result of careful deliberation. We are influenced by readily available information in memory, automatically generated affect, and salient information in the environment. We also live in the moment, in that we tend to resist change, are poor predictors of future behavior, subject to distorted memory, and affected by physiological and emotional states. Finally, we are social animals with social preferences, such as those expressed in trust, reciprocity and fairness; we are susceptible to social norms and a need for self-consistency. Interdisciplinary Context The field of BE is situated in a larger landscape of social and behavioral sciences, including cognitive and social psychology, and developments in the domain of neuroscience have opened up promising avenues for BE informed by better understanding of the human brain (Camerer, Loewenstein, & Prelec, 2005). It has been argued that BE would benefit from greater connections with other behavioral sciences, such as anthropology, which may be particularly important for domains that incorporate human interaction, especially behavioral game theory (Gintis, 2009). In a related vein, psychologists interested in the evolutionary origins of phenomena studied by behavioral economists have investigated behavioral biases in monkeys (Lakshminarayanan, Chen, & Santos, 2011). Some evolutionary psychologists have challenged assumptions about the rationality that underlies BE, in that seemingly ‘irrational’ judgments and decisions may have been functionally adaptive in our ancestral environment. The use of heuristic shortcuts, for example, is an efficient means for humans to make use of limited knowledge and processing capabilities. According to Herbert Simon, people tend to make decisions by satisficing (a combination of sufficing and satisfying) rather than optimizing (Gigerenzer & Goldstein, 1996), where decisions are often simply good enough in light of the costs and constraints involved. Evolutionary perspectives have also been applied to decision framing, showing that framing effects in a classic ‘lives lost’ versus ‘lives saved’ risky decision problem can change with the number of lives at stake. An “irrational” risk preference reversal effect is present when 600 or 6000 are involved, but it disappears when the number is reduced to 6 or 60. The evolutionary view holds that our thinking patterns evolved in hunter-gatherer environments that involved small groups (Rode & Wang, 2000).

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Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire: Behavioral Reactions to Terrorist Attacks by Gerd Gigerenzer :: SSRN

Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire: Behavioral Reactions to Terrorist Attacks by Gerd Gigerenzer :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: A low-probability, high-damage event in which many people are killed at one point of time is called a dread risk. Dread risks can cause direct damage and, in addition, indirect damage mediated though the minds of citizens. I analyze the behavioral reactions of Americans to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and provide evidence for the dread hypothesis: (i) Americans reduced their air travel after the attack; (ii) for a period of one year following the attacks, interstate highway travel increased, suggesting that a proportion of those who did not fly instead drove to their destination; and (iii) for the same period, in each month the number of fatal highway crashes exceeded the base line of the previous years. An estimated 1,500 Americans died on the road in the attempt to avoid the fate of the passengers who were killed in the four fatal flights.

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Economic Theory as Ideology

Economic Theory as Ideology | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Ideology and Science are diametrically opposed to each other. An ideology is a set of beliefs that is maintained even in face of strong empirical evidence to the contrary. In sharp contrast, scientific theories are judged primarily according to their ability to explain the empirical evidence. Theories which conflict with observations are rejected. This does not mean that ideology is necessarily wrong or bad – we must maintain our belief in justice, morality, honesty, trust, integrity without any empirical evidence; indeed, even when strong empirical evidence suggests that these beliefs will not bring us popularity or personal benefits. However, ideological beliefs in wrong ideas can blind us to the facts and prevent learning which is essential to progress. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz remarked that modern Economics represents the triumph of ideology over science. This essay explains the reasons for his remarks..

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Probabilistic Recognition Heuristic by Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Michael Smithson :: SSRN

Probabilistic Recognition Heuristic by Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Michael Smithson :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: According to the recognition heuristic, people infer that an object they recognize has a higher value on a criterion of interest than an object they do not recognize. This model has been analyzed and conditions for the less-is-more effect- where recognizing fewer objects increases inferential accuracy have been derived. We extend previous studies by modelling this heuristic including the probabilistic recognition of objects and provide a number of results: First, we derive closed-form expressions for the parameters of the original model, in terms of the distributions of recognition and other cues over the objects. Second, we use the expressions to analyze the less-is-more effect. Third, we assume that the vectors of objects is random and use the expressions to calculate and compare the expected accuracy probability of success and derive the conditions under which the model equal or surpass the accuracy of random inference. Our results are general and can thus be linked to any model of recognition-based inference.

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Taking Uncertainty Seriously: Simplicity versus Complexity in Financial Regulation by David Aikman, Mirta Galesic, Gerd Gigerenzer, Sujit Kapadia, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Amit Kothiyal, Emma...

Taking Uncertainty Seriously: Simplicity versus Complexity in Financial Regulation by David Aikman, Mirta Galesic, Gerd Gigerenzer, Sujit Kapadia, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Amit Kothiyal, Emma... | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: Distinguishing between risk and uncertainty, this paper draws on the psychological literature on heuristics to consider whether and when simpler approaches may outperform more complex methods for modelling and regulating the financial system. We find that: (i) simple methods can sometimes dominate more complex modelling approaches for calculating banks’ capital requirements, especially if limited data are available for estimating models or the underlying risks are characterised by fat-tailed distributions; (ii) simple indicators often outperformed more complex metrics in predicting individual bank failure during the global financial crisis; and (iii) when combining information from different indicators to predict bank failure, ‘fast-and-frugal’ decision trees can perform comparably to standard, but more information-intensive, regression techniques, while being simpler and easier to communicate. 

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Nudges That Fail by Cass R. Sunstein :: SSRN

Nudges That Fail by Cass R. Sunstein :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Abstract: Why are some nudges ineffective? Focusing primarily on default rules, this essay emphasizes two reasons. The first involves strong antecedent preferences on the part of choosers. The second involves successful “counternudges,” which persuade people to choose in a way that confounds the efforts of choice architects. Nudges might also be ineffective for five other reasons. (1) Some nudges produce confusion. (2) Some nudges have only short-term effects. (3) Some nudges produce “reactance” (though this appears to be rare) (4) Some nudges are based on an inaccurate (though initially plausible) understanding on the part of choice architects of what kinds of choice architecture will move people in particular contexts. (5) Some nudges produce compensating behavior, resulting in no net effect. When a nudge turns out to be ineffective, choice architects have three potential responses: (1) Do nothing; (2) nudge better (or different); and (3) fortify the effects of the nudge, perhaps through counter-counternudges, perhaps through incentives, mandates, or bans.

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Why We Like The Music We Do

Why We Like The Music We Do | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Summary: According to a new study, musical tastes are cultural in origin and not hardwired in the brain. Source: MIT. New study suggests that musical tastes are cultural in origin, not hardwired in the brain. In Western styles of music, from classical to pop, some combinations of notes are generally considered more pleasant than others. To most of our ears, a chord of C and G, for example, sounds much more agreeable than the grating combination of C and F# (which has historically been known as the “devil in music”). For decades, neuroscientists have pondered whether this preference is somehow hardwired into our brains. A new study from MIT and Brandeis University suggests that the answer is no. In a study of more than 100 people belonging to a remote Amazonian tribe with little or no exposure to Western music, the researchers found that dissonant chords such as the combination of C and F# were rated just as likeable as “consonant” chords, which feature simple integer ratios between the acoustical frequencies of the two notes. “This study suggests that preferences for consonance over dissonance depend on exposure to Western musical culture, and that the preference is not innate,” says Josh McDermott, the Frederick A. and Carole J. Middleton Assistant Professor of Neuroscience in the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences at MIT.

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Rationality: why social context matters

Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung

Abstract Rationality is commonly identified with axioms and rules, such as consistency, which are defined without reference to context, but are imposed in all contexts. In this chapter, I focus on the social context of rational behavior. My thesis is that traditional axioms and rules are incomplete as behavioral norms in the sense that their normative validity depends on the social context of the behavior, such as social objectives, values, and motivations. In the first part, I illustrate this thesis by showing that social context can determine whether an axiom or rule is satisfied or not. In the second part, I describe an alternative to context-independent rationality: a domain-specific theory of rational behavior derived from the evolutionary theory of cooperation.

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The Adaptive Toolbox:
Toward a Darwinian
Rationality
Gerd Gigerenzer

   A cartoon shows an early Homo sapiens standing in front of a cave. He is calculating the trajectory of a lion's jump and the magnitude of the impulse the Iion will have in order to decide what to do. The Iast picture shows a sated, happy Iion. The cartoon makes us smile because its message conflicts with our ideai of rational decision making, which demands that we go through ali the available information, deduce ali the possible consequences, and compute the optimal decision. Good decision making, from this point of view, is based on the ideals of omniscience and optimization. An organism aiming for these heavenly ideals, however, might not survi\·e on earth. Nevertheless, the majority of models of rational decision making in the socia!, behavioral, and cognitive sciences, as well as in economics, rely on some version of this doctrine. Even when empirica! studies show that actual human beings cannot live up to it, the doctrine is not abandoned as other models would be-it is retained and declared a norm, that is, how we http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/pubman/item/escidoc:2102371/component/escidoc:2102370/GG_Adaptive_2001.pdf
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Le insidie della complessità e l’ansia
del controllo totale

Le insidie della complessità e l’ansia del controllo totale. Nel 2005 uscì un articolo che fece molto scalpore, il titolo era già un proclama ‘Why most Published Research Findings are false’ né più né meno ‘Perché la maggior parte dei risultati scientifici pubblicati sono falsi’1 . La rivista era delle più prestigiose e John Ioannidis, statistico greco di stanza a Stanford, uno scienziato di chiara fama. Ioannidis non usava ipotesi moralistico-consolatorie (molto in voga negli Stati Uniti) come “E’ la smania di successo di alcuni scienziati che li porta a falsificare i dati”, ma individuava la fallacia di gran parte della ricerca scientifica in semplici considerazioni statistiche. Il furioso dibattito che seguì alla pubblicazione ebbe termine con il riconoscimento della effettiva mancanza di ripetibilità della ricerca (soprattutto in biomedicina). Grandi agenzie di finanziamento come l’NIH (National Institutes of Health, l’agenzia di ricerca biomedica americana che è di gran lunga il maggior erogatore di fondi) inserirono standard molto severi sulla congruità statistica dei risultati e Nature (insieme a Science la rivista scientifica più di tendenza) ha recentemente pubblicato un intero numero sul problema della mancanza di ripetibilità dei risultati della ricerca di base in biomedicina2 .
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Nudging: A Very Short Guide by Cass R. Sunstein :: SSRN

Nudging: A Very Short Guide by Cass R. Sunstein :: SSRN | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

This brief essay offers a general introduction to the idea of nudging, along with a list of ten of the most important “nudges.” It also provides a short discussAbstract: This brief essay offers a general introduction to the idea of nudging, along with a list of ten of the most important “nudges.” It also provides a short discussion of the question whether to create some kind of separate “behavioral insights unit,” capable of conducting its own research, or instead to rely on existing institutions.

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Suggested by April Alen Abion
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Mental Illness Is on the Rise, But Here’s One Way to Change That [Interactive Infographic]

Mental Illness Is on the Rise, But Here’s One Way to Change That [Interactive Infographic] | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
A look at the relationship between social isolation, lack of trust and mental illness in America, visualized through an interactive infographic.
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