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Strategie di persuasione pubblicitaria: come la pubblicità influenza ...

Strategie di persuasione pubblicitaria: come la pubblicità influenza ... | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Fatto sta che proprio per questo possiamo affermare, come già diceva il premio Nobel Herbert Simon (1955), che l'uomo ha una razionalità limitata. Per quanto una persona possa calcolare approfonditamente le sue scelte ...
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TrueNorth, il chip a basso consumo che imita le reti cerebrali - Le Scienze

TrueNorth, il chip a basso consumo che imita le reti cerebrali - Le Scienze | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Pur basandosi sulla tecnologia al silicio, il nuovo chip "TrueNorth" riesce a offrire prestazioni cento volte superiori a quelle di un microprocessore standard e, cosa ancora più importante, con un consumo energetico 176.000 volte inferiore. Il risultato è stato ottenuto  grazie a un'architettura che imita da vicino quella dei circuiti cerebrali . Un chip dotato di un'architettura ispirata a quella del cervello e in grado di eseguire compiti sofisticati in tempo reale consumando pochissima energia è stato messo a punto da un gruppo di ricercatori della IBM e della Cornell University diretti da Dharmendra S. Modha nell'ambito del progetto SyNAPSE (Systems of Neuromorphic Adaptive Plastic Scalable Electronics) sponsorizzato dalla DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). Il chip apre la strada alla progettazione di dispositivi informatici adatti a compiti che i chip dei computer convenzionali non sono in grado di eseguire in modo efficiente.

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Cosa si naconde dietro le nostre decisioni? - Better Decisions Forum

Cosa si naconde dietro le nostre decisioni? - Better Decisions Forum | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Studiare l’irrazionalità in modo scientifico, empirico e sperimentale: conoscere dove ci portano le nostre emozioni e quale area del cervello si attiva anche in quei contesti in cui sarebbe meglio prendere decisioni meditate. L’intervento di Matteo Motterlini, filosofo e neuroeconomista, speaker life a #bDf14. Guarda l’intervista a Matteo Motterlini  >
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Rethinking Economics: Adair Turner, London 2014 - YouTube

Lord Adair Turner delivers the opening keynote speech of the Rethinking Economics 2014 conference at UCL. 

The 2014 Rethinking Economics NYC conference is an entirely student-run conference in New York City from September 12-14 at The New School, Columbia University and NYU.

It is organized by Rethinking Economics in partnership with The Modern Money Network.

Rethinking Economics is a global movement to create fresh economic narratives that challenge and enrich the predominant narratives in economics. The movement unites all who support new ways of thinking. We believe that the mainstream approach to understanding our economy, while definitely valuable, is far too narrow. We value pluralism: the belief that economics should be a more interdisciplinary subject that embraces useful ideas from various schools of thought and subject fields.

The Modern Money Network is a trans-disciplinary learning hub, dedicated to improving the function, design, operations and legal regulation of money. It is student-conceived and student-run, and combines insights from a range of fields, including law, political economy, finance, history, sociology, anthropology, technology and systems theory.

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Volatile emotions are driving the world economy

Volatile emotions are driving the world economy | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Economic predictions depend on figuring out what generates economic activity. Since the turn of the 20th century, economists have struggled to grasp what drives various parts of the economy, from consumer goods to commodities to housing. Yet the underlying causes of financial events remain elusive.

Scientists at University College London, however, appear to be finally making some headway. A team of researchers at the Centre for the Study of Decision-Making Uncertainty led by professor David Tuckett, one of London’s leading psychoanalysts, is studying the psychological moods of market participants to decipher what drives economic activities.

The team is using a large database of financial news stories from the mid-1990s until today, scanning articles for various words and phrases. The selected terms are then divided into fear or anxiety words and optimistic or happiness words. The balance between these two divisions generates what the team is calling the animal spirits measure — a Keynesian term used to describe the psychological state of investors that drives economic activity in spite of market uncertainties.

When the system finds a lot of anxiety words in the financial press, the researchers say it is an indication that the market under study is about to sink. When the software returns a lot of optimistic keywords, the market might be on an upward swing. During a recent discussion, Tuckett refused to provide details on the specific words and phrases the researchers are targeting, but he noted that the terms were carefully selected on the basis of interviews and extensive psychological investigation.

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Imaging Valuation Models in Human Choice

Abstract

To make a decision, a system must assign value to each of its available choices. In the human brain, one approach to studying valuation has used rewarding stimuli to map out brain responses by varying the dimension or importance of the rewards. However, theoretical models have taught us that value computations are complex, and so reward probes alone can give only partial information about neural responses related to valuation. In recent years, computationally principled models of value learning have been used in conjunction with noninvasive neuroimaging to tease out neural valuation responses related to reward-learning and decision-making.We restrict our review to the role of these models in a new generation of experiments that seeks to build on a now-large body of diverse reward-related brain responses. We show that the models and the measurements based on them point the way forward in two important directions: the valuation of time and the valuation of fictive experience. 

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Root apices as plant command centres: the uniqu ‘brain-like’ status of the root apex transition zone

Although plants are generally immobile and lack the most obvious brain activities of animals and humans, they are not only able to show all the attributes of intelligent behaviour but they are also equipped with neuronal molecules, especially synaptotagmins and glutamate/glycine-gated glutamate receptors.

Recent advances in plant cell biology allowed identification of plant synapses transporting the plant-specific neurotransmitter-like molecule, auxin. This suggests that synaptic communication is not limited to animals and humans but seems to be widespread throughout plant tissues. Root apices seated at the anterior pole of the plant body show many features which allow us to propose that they, especially their transition zones, act in some way as “brainlike”

command centres. The opposite posterior pole harbours sexual organs and is specialized for plant reproduction. Last but not least, we propose that vascular tissues represent highways for plant nervous activity allowing rapid exchange of information between the growing points of above-ground organs and the “brain-like” zones in the root apices.

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Weekend Reads for Investors: Howard Marks on Risk and the "Zone of Imprudence"

Weekend Reads for Investors: Howard Marks on Risk and the "Zone of Imprudence" | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Equity fund managers are underperforming their benchmarks again this year, continuing a trend that started sometime shortly after the Big Bang. As it often does, the year began with the promise of a “stock picker’s market,” a thinly-veiled and empirically lacking pitch for active management. But with the finish line in sight, nearly 80% of large cap fund managers in the US find themselves trailing the S&P 500 Index. Some of these fund managers may be tempted to break free of their index-hugging ways in an effort to overtake their benchmarks in the remaining months of the year. They would do well to heed the warning of Oaktree Capital’s (OAK) Howard Marks, CFA, who thinks investor behavior has “entered the zone of imprudence.”

Mark’s thoughtful “Memos from the Chairman” are widely considered required reading for serious investors and his latest missive, “Risk Revisited,” is no exception. While he believes that today’s market conditions “are creating a degree of risk for which there is no commensurate risk premium,” Marks is an advocate for risk control rather than risk avoidance, which he likens to “return avoidance.” To this end, he warns of the risk of over-diversification, whereby a portfolio has so many positions the impact of any one stock is so muted as to be inconsequential. Warren Buffett, an admitted fan of Marks, has said that you can get all the diversification you need in six businesses, adding “very few people have gotten rich on their seventh best idea.” Of course, given its enormous size, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway by necessity owns more than seven stocks — it owned 46 at last count — but its top seven positions constituted over 75% of its portfolio at the end of June. It’s a concentrated portfolio by almost any measure.

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Neuroeconomics: hype or hope?

This Special Issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology brings together a selection of papers presented at the Conference Neuroeconomics: Hype or Hope?, which was hosted by the Erasmus Institute for Philosophy and Economics (EIPE) in November 2008 in
Rotterdam. The conference speakers comprised ardent advocates and practitioners of neuroeconomics, outspoken critics and skeptics, and philosophers and methodologists taking a stance somewhere in between these extremes. The central question was whether neuroeconomics is a flimsy fad that is likely to pass without leaving a discernible trace in economics, or a promising new field with the potential to enrich and improve economic theory.
Neuroeconomics is hot. Over the last few years, all over the world many leading universities have started their own lab or centre for euroeconomics. Papers explicitly presented under the banner of neuroeconomics frequently appear in leading science journals such as Nature and Science. Neuroeconomics has also received quite some attention in the popular press. Not surprisingly, economists have started to reflect on neuroeconomics and its relevance for economics. To date, the paper by Gul and Pesendorfer (2008) is perhaps the staunchest denial of any potential relevance of neuroscientific findings for economics. Gul and Pesendorfer argue that economists should keep their focus on observable choice behavior and retain their agnosticism about decision-making processes. Since neuroscientific data are about decision-making processes, they should be completely disregarded in empirical assessments of economic theories

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Behavioural tracking and neuroscience tools designed to measure what consumers want and need

Behavioural tracking and neuroscience tools designed to measure what consumers want and need | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

A worth reading article by Dara O’Rourke today well explains why it’s time “we move beyond surveys, and simultaneously commit to avoiding invasive tracking and manipulative marketing, in order to really understand what consumers want and need, and to help them connect their values and actions for sustainability. A new set of tools and technologies has emerged over the last several years to measure the behaviours of consumers. These tools, if used responsibly, transparently, and without violating people’s privacy, hold important potential for better understanding consumer behavior with respect to sustainability”.

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Affective basis of Judgment-Behavior Discrepancy in Virtual Experiences of Moral Dilemmas

Affective basis of Judgment-Behavior Discrepancy in Virtual Experiences of Moral Dilemmas | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
AbstractAlthough research in moral psychology in the last decade has relied heavily on hypothetical moral dilemmas and has been effective in understanding moral judgment, how these judgments translate into behaviors remains a largely unexplored issue due to the harmful nature of the acts involved. To study this link, we follow a new approach based on a desktop virtual reality environment. In our within-subjects experiment, participants exhibited an order-dependent judgment-behavior discrepancy across temporally-separated sessions, with many of them behaving in utilitarian manner in virtual reality dilemmas despite their non-utilitarian judgments for the same dilemmas in textual descriptions. This change in decisions reflected in the autonomic arousal of participants, with dilemmas in virtual reality being perceived more emotionally arousing than the ones in text, after controlling for general differences between the two presentation modalities (virtual reality vs. text). This suggests that moral decision-making in hypothetical moral dilemmas is susceptible to contextual saliency of the presentation of these dilemmas.

 

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The rise of emotional awareness

The rise of emotional awareness | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Our emotions are subject to the ebbs and flow of daily life. Even the subtlest differences in our environments can have a visceral effect on our emotional state and interactions, with new tools and sensor quantifying by exactly how much.

New systems are being developed which use sensors and advanced algorithms to understand, react to and even anticipate our moods and emotional states.

These technologies have a built-in emotional responsiveness that will change the way we think of interactivity, allowing us to connect with our surroundings, with each other and even with ourselves, in an exciting and dynamic new way.

Margaret Morris, research scientist at Intel Labs, has explored the intersection of technology and emotions, examining how computing devices might enhance our personal and professional relationships. In the interview below, Morris talks about what it means to allow technology to get to know us and how will it can help us learn more about ourselves.

 

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Fragility of the Commons under Prospect-Theoretic Risk Attitudes

Abstract: We study a common-pool resource game where the resource experiences failure with a probability that grows with the aggregate investment in the resource. To capture decision making under such uncertainty, we model each player's risk preference according to the value function from prospect theory. We show the existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium when the players have arbitrary (potentially heterogeneous) risk preferences and under natural assumptions on the rate of return and failure probability of the resource. Greater competition, vis-a-vis the number of players, increases the failure probability at the Nash equilibrium, and we quantify this effect by obtaining (tight) upper bounds on the failure probability at the equilibrium for a large number of players with respect to the failure probability under investment by a single player. We further examine the effects of heterogeneity in risk preferences of the players with respect to two characteristics of the prospect-theoretic value function: loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. Heterogeneity in attitudes towards loss aversion always leads to higher failure probability of the resource at the equilibrium when compared to the case where players have identical risk preferences, whereas there is no clear trend under heterogeneity in the diminishing sensitivity parameter.

 
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Brain structure could predict risky behavior | neuroscientistnews.com

Brain structure could predict risky behavior | neuroscientistnews.com | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

Some people avoid risks at all costs, while others will put their wealth, health, and safety at risk without a thought. Researchers at Yale School of Medicine have found that the volume of the parietal cortex in the brain could predict where people fall on the risk-taking spectrum.

Led by Ifat Levy, assistant professor in comparative medicine and neurobiology at Yale School of Medicine, the team found that those with larger volume in a particular part of the parietal cortex were willing to take more risks than those with less volume in this part of the brain. The findings are published in the Sept. 10 issue of the Journal of Neuroscience.

Although several cognitive and personality traits are reflected in brain structure, there has been little research linking brain structure to economic preferences. Levy and her colleagues sought to examine this question in their study.

Study participants included young adult men and women from the northeastern United States. Participants made a series of choices between monetary lotteries that varied in their degree of risk, and the research team conducted standard anatomical MRI brain scans. The results were first obtained in a group of 28 participants, and then confirmed in a second, independent, group of 33 participants.

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Rationality and Irrationality in Government - 10 - 2014 - Events - Public events - Home

What impact is behavioural science having on politics and business? Simplified disclosure, default rules, social norms, and ‘choice architecture’ are all being used to steer people in specific directions. Are these ‘nudges’ improving our decisions? Are they offsetting irrational behaviour? Cass Sunstein, author of Nudge and the previous Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Obama administration will discuss these new policies and the question they raise about freedom of choice.

Cass Sunstein (@CassSunstein) is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School.
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Paul Krugman talks with Chrystia Freeland: The complete interview - Freeland File - YouTube

Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist, speaks with Thomson Reuters Digital Editor Chrystia Freeland about the economy,...
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Behavioral economics: come semplificare la vita agli italiani

Tutti - più o meno - sappiamo che una volta approvata dal parlamento una legge è necessario stenderne il regolamento attuativo, compito affidato alla burocrazia ministeriale - funzionari e alti dirigenti. Senza regolamento, la legge rimane una mera affermazione di principi, un cattivo regolamento può rendere inapplicabile una legge e far impazzire i cittadini. Come molti giornalisti hanno ripetutamente messo in evidenza, citiamo per tutti il duo Rizzo-Stella, l'Italia è un paese soffocato da troppe leggi e dalla burocrazia ministeriale: non c'è stato da noi né un presidente Ronald Regan né un presidente Barack Obama, che - pur appartenendo a concezioni politiche diametralmente opposte - hanno promosso in modo bipartisan la semplificazione: "l'uso di un linguaggio comprensibile; la riduzione degli adempimenti burocratici; la stesura di riassunti leggibili per normative particolarmente complesse; e l'abolizione di adempimenti costosi e ingiustificati".

Queste sono "spinte gentili" (nudges): approcci semplici e poco costosi che fanno riferimento ai principi della behavioral economics e fanno sperare in benefici economici e nel miglioramento della vita sociale, lavorativa e nella salute delle persone. Questo è esattamente ciò che serve al nostro paese per tentare di uscire dalla palude, per innescare quel cambiamento culturale di cui si parla molto ma per cui si fa ancora poco, perché manca un metodo basato su principi scientifici e quindi valutabili in termini di efficacia, sull'analisi costi-benefici, per fare in modo che, spiega Sunstein, "gli atti del governo si fondino su dati di fatto e prove chiare, non su intuizioni, aneddoti, dogmi o sulle idee di potenti gruppi d'interesse".

 

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How Meditators Can Overcome Behavioral Finance Biases

How Meditators Can Overcome Behavioral Finance Biases | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it

While behavioral finance identifies and describes cognitive errors, it provides few remedies. In fact, when Daniel Kahneman was asked what could be done to overcome behavioral biases, he told delegates at CFA Institute’s 2012 Annual Conference: “Very little; I have 40 years of experience with this, and I still commit these errors. Knowing the errors is not the recipe to avoiding them.”

The major behavioral biases stem from a lack of conscious awareness of how our minds function. The good news is that attaining consciousness is a hallmark of a meditation practice. Moreover, a recent INSEAD/Wharton research paper demonstrated that a mindfulness practice is a successful antidote to “sunk cost” bias.

Here is a guide to behavioral finance’s major biases and how meditation may help to overcome them.

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Neural Systems Responding t Degrees of Uncertainty in Huma Decision-Making

Much is known about how people make decisions under varying levels of probability (risk). Less is known about the neural basis of decision-making when probabilities are uncertain because of missing information (ambiguity). In decision theory, ambiguity about probabilities should not affect choices. Using functional brain imaging, we show that the level of ambiguity in choices correlates positively with activation in the amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex, and negatively with a striatal system. Moreover, striatal activity correlates positively with expected reward. Neurological subjects with orbitofrontal lesions were insensitive to the level of ambiguity and risk in behavioral choices. These data suggest a general neural circuit responding to degrees of uncertainty, contrary to decision theory.

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Plant neurobiology: an integrate view of plant signaling

We can learn from the behavior of plants, new approaches to behavioral and cognitive processes.

Abstract

Plant neurobiology is a newly focused field of plant

biology research that aims to understand how plants

process the information they obtain from their environment

to develop, prosper and reproduce optimally. The

behavior plants exhibit is coordinated across the whole

organism by some form of integrated signaling, communication

and response system. This system includes

long-distance electrical signals, vesicle-mediated transport

of auxin in specialized vascular tissues, and production

of chemicals known to be neuronal in animals. Here

we review how plant neurobiology is being directed

toward discovering the mechanisms of signaling in

whole plants, as well as among plants and their

neighbors

 
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:

We can learn from the behavior of plants, new approaches to behavioral and cognitive processes.

Abstract

 

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This is your brain on snacks: Brain stimulation affects craving, consumption | neuroscientistnews.com

This is your brain on snacks: Brain stimulation affects craving, consumption | neuroscientistnews.com | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
Magnetic stimulation of a brain area involved in "executive function" affects cravings for and consumption of calorie-dense snack foods, reports a study in the September issue of Psychosomatic Medicine: Journal of Biobehavioral Medicine, the official journal of the American Psychosomatic Society. The journal is published by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, a part of Wolters Kluwer Health. After stimulation of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), young women experience increased cravings for high-calorie snacks -- and eat more of those foods when given the opportunity, according to the study by researchers at University of Waterloo, Ont., Canada. "These findings shed a light on the role of the DLPFC in food cravings (specifically reward anticipation), the consumption of appealing high caloric foods, and the relation between self-control and food consumption," the researchers write. The senior author was Peter Hall, PhD. Brain Stimulation Affects Cravings and Consumption for 'Appetitive' Snacks The study included 21 healthy young women, selected because they reported strong and frequent cravings for chocolate and potato chips. Such "appetitive," calorie-dense snack foods are often implicated in the development of obesity. - See more at: http://www.neuroscientistnews.com/research-news/your-brain-snacks-brain-stimulation-affects-craving-consumption#sthash.GENRJhPs.dpuf
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NEUROECONOMICS, ILLUSTRATED BY THE STUDY OF AMBIGUITY-AVERSION

This paper is about the emerging field of #neuroeconomics, which seeks to ground economic  theory in details about how the brain works. This approach is a sharp turn in economic thought. Around
the turn of the century, economists made a clear methodological choice, to treat the mind as a black box and ignore its details for the purpose of economic theory (13). In an 1897 letter Pareto wrote
It is an empirical fact that the natural sciences have progressed only when they have taken secondary principles as their point of departure, instead of trying to discover the essence of things. ... Pure political economy has therefore a great interest in relying as
little as possible on the domain of psychology (quoted in Busino, 1964, p. xxiv (14)). Pareto’s view that psychology should be ignored was reflective of a pessimism of his time, about the ability to ever understand the brain. As William Jevons wrote a little earlier, in 1871

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Stumbling and Mumbling: The referendum, & risk attitudes

THE REFERENDUM, & RISK ATTITUDES

To what extent is the Scottish referendum about the benefits of independence and to what extent is it about people's attitudes to risk?

To see my question, think of independence as an investment with a risky payoff - which is what it is. 
There are two reasons why one might reject such an investment. One, trivially, is simply that you expect a negative payoff. The other is that you expect a positive payoff but think the risks around it are too high.

It is perfectly possible for two people to agree upon payoffs and risks and yet one would accept the proposal and the other reject it because one is more risk-tolerant than the other. This is commonplace in asset allocation. Two investors might agree upon expected returns and volatility and yet one might hold more equities and fewer safe assets than the other simply because of differences in tastes.

Mightn't the same be true for many people for Scottish independence? Two Scots might agree on the payoffs and risks to independence but one might vote yes and the other no because of differences in risk tolerance.The statement "Independence probably would be a good thing, but I don't want to risk it" seems tenable to me.

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Neuroscience Provides Clues To Organization

Neuroscience Provides Clues To Organization | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
We’ve all heard the conventional wisdom for better managing our time and organizing our professional and personal lives. 
We’ve all heard the conventional wisdom for better managing our time and organizing our professional and personal lives. Don’t try to multitask. Turn off the email and Facebook alerts. But what’s grounded in real evidence and what’s not? In his new book The Organized Mind, Daniel Levitin — a McGill University professor of psychology and behavioral neuroscience — explores how having a basic understanding of the way the brain works can help us think about organizing our homes, our businesses, our time and even our schools in an age of information overload. We spoke with Levitin about his work. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. Question: What was your goal in writing this book? Answer: Neuroscientists have learned a lot in the last 10 or 15 years about how the brain organizes information, and why we pay attention to some things and forget others. But most of this information hasn’t trickled down to the average reader. There are a lot of books about how to get organized and a lot of books about how to be better and more productive at business, but I don’t know of one that grounds any of these in the science. From the book, you seem to be a fan of David Allen, the time management guru. Does his Getting Things Donesystem have a real basis in neuroscience? 
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Neuroscientists reverse memories’ emotional associations

Neuroscientists reverse memories’ emotional associations | Bounded Rationality and Beyond | Scoop.it
MIT study also identifies the brain circuit that links feelings to memories. 

Most memories have some kind of emotion associated with them: Recalling the week you just spent at the beach probably makes you feel happy, while reflecting on being bullied provokes more negative feelings.

A new study from MIT neuroscientists reveals the brain circuit that controls how memories become linked with positive or negative emotions. Furthermore, the researchers found that they could reverse the emotional association of specific memories by manipulating brain cells with optogenetics — a technique that uses light to control neuron activity.

The findings, described in the Aug. 27 issue of Nature, demonstrated that a neuronal circuit connecting the hippocampus and the amygdala plays a critical role in associating emotion with memory. This circuit could offer a target for new drugs to help treat conditions such as post-traumatic stress disorder, the researchers say.

“In the future, one may be able to develop methods that help people to remember positive memories more strongly than negative ones,” says Susumu Tonegawa, the Picower Professor of Biology and Neuroscience, director of the RIKEN-MIT Center for Neural Circuit Genetics at MIT’s Picower Institute for Learning and Memory, and senior author of the paper. 

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Personality Has Minor Effects on Panel Attrition

Abstract: In light of the recent interest in using longitudinal panel data to study personality development, it is important to know if personality traits are related to panel attrition. We analyse the effects of personality on panel drop-out separately for an 'older' subsample (started in 1984), a relatively 'young' subsample (started in 2000), and a 'new' subsample (started in 2009) of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study. We found that openness slightly decreases the probability of panel drop-out in all three samples. For the 'older' subsample only, we found a small negative effect of agreeableness on panel drop-out. We control for age, sex, education, migration background, and the number of inhabitants in the region of the respondents.

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