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Predicting Successful Memes using Network and Community Structure

Predicting Successful Memes using Network and Community Structure | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that features based on community structure are the most powerful predictors of future success. We also find that early popularity of a meme is not a good predictor of its future popularity, contrary to common belief. Our methods outperform other approaches, particularly in the task of detecting very popular or unpopular memes.
-- To be presented at ICWSM 2014

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RSA Animate - Re-Imagining Work - RSA

RSA Animate - Re-Imagining Work - RSA | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it

his is a MUST for 

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This is a MUST for non-profits and foundations!

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Agile: The World's Most Popular Innovation Engine

Agile: The World's Most Popular Innovation Engine | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
Innovation in software is eating the world
june holley's insight:

Lots of important ideas on self-organizing in here - from the software development world - that could be adapted to networks. Funders check this out.

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Going Viral: 9780745671291: Media Studies Books @ Amazon.com

Going Viral

~ Jeff Hemsley (author) More about this product
Price: $19.95
Going Viral: 9780745671291: Media Studies Books @ Amazon.com
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Rescooped by june holley from Systems Thinking
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new book: Systems Thinking Made Simple: New Hope for Solving Wicked Problems

Systems Thinking Made Simple: New Hope for Solving Wicked Problems [Derek Cabrera, Laura Cabrera, Erin Powers, Michael DiBiase] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Systems thinking can help us solve everyday and wicked problems, increase our personal effectiveness as human beings

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Rescooped by june holley from Network and Graph Theory
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Fractal and Small-World Networks Formed by Self-Organized Critical Dynamics

Fractal and Small-World Networks Formed by Self-Organized Critical Dynamics | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it

We propose a dynamical model in which a network structure evolves in a self-organized critical (SOC) manner and explain a possible origin of the emergence of fractal and small-world networks. Our model combines a network growth and its decay by failures of nodes. The decay mechanism reflects the instability of large functional networks against cascading overload failures. It is demonstrated that the dynamical system surely exhibits SOC characteristics, such as power-law forms of the avalanche size distribution, the cluster size distribution, and the distribution of the time interval between intermittent avalanches. During the network evolution, fractal networks are spontaneously generated when networks experience critical cascades of failures that lead to a percolation transition. In contrast, networks far from criticality have small-world structures. We also observe the crossover behavior from fractal to small-world structure in the network evolution.


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Network Weaver

Network Weaver | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
Weaving Smart Networks
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You can get the Network Weaver Handbook for $30 (regularly $50) using the code SPECIAL2 at www.networkweaver.com.

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Essay of the Day: Comparing Successful Grassroots Innovations in Renewable Energy | P2P Foundation

Essay of the Day: Comparing Successful Grassroots Innovations in Renewable Energy | P2P Foundation | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
* Article: Of solar collectors, wind power, and car sharing: Comparing and understanding successful cases of grassroots innovations. By Michael Ornetzeder and Harald Rohracher, Linköping University Post Print, 2013 From the Abstract: “Grassroots activities so far have not been sufficiently appreciated as sources of innovation. Transition processes towards more sustainable socio-technical energy, transport or production …
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▶ Complex Adaptive Systems: 13 Fitness Landscapes - YouTube

In this video we will present the concept of a fitness landscape as it is used to model complex adaptive systems, we will provide you with a basic descriptio...
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Talking Headways Podcast: Building Relationships to Build a Better City | Streetsblog USA

Talking Headways Podcast: Building Relationships to Build a Better City | Streetsblog USA | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
june holley's insight:

This is really interesting and not just for city dwellers.

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How to Manage Consensus Reaching Processes in Large Scale Group Decision Making | UTS News Room

How to Manage Consensus Reaching Processes in Large Scale Group Decision Making | UTS News Room | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
In this talk Professor Luis Martínez from the University of Jaén will discuss research to develop a multi-agent based consensus support system to assist in large-scale group decision making.
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The Social-Network Illusion That Tricks Your Mind | MIT Technology Review

The Social-Network Illusion That Tricks Your Mind | MIT Technology Review | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
Network scientists have discovered how social networks can create the illusion that something is common when it is actually rare.
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Learning by Thinking: Overcoming the Bias for Action through Reflection by Giada Di Stefano, Francesca Gino, Gary P. Pisano, Bradley R. Staats :: SSRN

Learning by Thinking: Overcoming the Bias for Action through Reflection by Giada Di Stefano, Francesca Gino, Gary P. Pisano, Bradley R. Staats :: SSRN | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
Research on learning has primarily focused on the role of doing (experience) in fostering progress over time. Drawing on literature in cognitive psychology and
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Surfacing the E-fluencers: Measuring the Influence of Your Nonprofit's Network

Surfacing the E-fluencers: Measuring the Influence of Your Nonprofit's Network | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
It's not hard to get people excited by the idea of big numbers in social media. Nonprofits are notorious penny-pinchers, and if Twitter can deliver huge numbers without hard costs (which is to say, non-personnel cash out the door), then many…
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Rescooped by june holley from Papers
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Topological data analysis of contagion maps for examining spreading processes on networks

Topological data analysis of contagion maps for examining spreading processes on networks | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it

Social and biological contagions are influenced by the spatial embeddedness of networks. Historically, many epidemics spread as a wave across part of the Earth’s surface; however, in modern contagions long-range edges—for example, due to airline transportation or communication media—allow clusters of a contagion to appear in distant locations. Here we study the spread of contagions on networks through a methodology grounded in topological data analysis and nonlinear dimension reduction. We construct ‘contagion maps’ that use multiple contagions on a network to map the nodes as a point cloud. By analysing the topology, geometry and dimensionality of manifold structure in such point clouds, we reveal insights to aid in the modelling, forecast and control of spreading processes. Our approach highlights contagion maps also as a viable tool for inferring low-dimensional structure in networks.


Nature Communications 6, Article number: 7723 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8723 


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▶ Ceasar McDowell Plenary: Learning Together to Build Community Knowledge and Voice - YouTube

Ceasar McDowell's closing plenary at The Learning Conference 2015. More at www.geofunders.org/geolearn
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Sleeping with the Enemy - Achieving Collaborative Success : Surviving and thriving within the weird space of collaborative working: the four principles to live by

Sleeping with the Enemy - Achieving Collaborative Success : Surviving and thriving within the weird space of collaborative working: the four principles to live by | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
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Rescooped by june holley from Social Foraging
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Topological data analysis of contagion maps for examining spreading processes on networks

Topological data analysis of contagion maps for examining spreading processes on networks | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
Social and biological contagions are influenced by the spatial embeddedness of networks. Historically, many epidemics spread as a wave across part of the Earth’s surface; however, in modern contagions long-range edges—for example, due to airline transportation or communication media—allow clusters of a contagion to appear in distant locations. Here we study the spread of contagions on networks through a methodology grounded in topological data analysis and nonlinear dimension reduction. We construct ‘contagion maps’ that use multiple contagions on a network to map the nodes as a point cloud. By analysing the topology, geometry and dimensionality of manifold structure in such point clouds, we reveal insights to aid in the modelling, forecast and control of spreading processes. Our approach highlights contagion maps also as a viable tool for inferring low-dimensional structure in networks.

Via Ashish Umre
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Francisco Restivo's curator insight, July 24, 4:45 PM

An interesting view of a very complex phenomenon.

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6 steps to bring innovation back | Thinking Collective

june holley's insight:

Important ideas for movement networks 

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The Parable of Reddit or How Traditional Business Models Fail Communities

If you work in the community or digital space, it's been impossible not to follow the turmoil at Reddit during the last week. It is cause for a lot of anxiety in the community space because until this turmoil hit, Reddit was viewed as community success story - growing geometrically over the years. If Reddit can't make community work, than who can?If you haven't been following, this is my understanding of what happened:
Victoria Taylor, who was the primary interface between Reddit and an army of
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Making Large-Scale Deliberations Better, Online: The Deliberatorium | Management Innovation eXchange

Making Large-Scale Deliberations Better, Online: The Deliberatorium | Management Innovation eXchange | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
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Loomio used for large-scale citizen democracy project in Greece

Loomio used for large-scale citizen democracy project in Greece | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it
 Ben Knight The best thing about building Loomio is hearing how groups are using it in their communities. It was humbling to learn about a cooperative effort between direct democracy groups in Gree...
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Jigsaw percolation: What social networks can collaboratively solve a puzzle?

Jigsaw percolation: What social networks can collaboratively solve a puzzle? | networks and network weaving | Scoop.it

We introduce a new kind of percolation on finite graphs called jigsaw percolation. This model attempts to capture networks of people who innovate by merging ideas and who solve problems by piecing together solutions. Each person in a social network has a unique piece of a jigsaw puzzle. Acquainted people with compatible puzzle pieces merge their puzzle pieces. More generally, groups of people with merged puzzle pieces merge if the groups know one another and have a pair of compatible puzzle pieces. The social network solves the puzzle if it eventually merges all the puzzle pieces. For an Erdős–Rényi social network with n vertices and edge probability p_n, we define the critical value p_c(n) for a connected puzzle graph to be the p_n for which the chance of solving the puzzle equals 1/2. We prove that for the n-cycle (ring) puzzle, p_c(n)=Θ(1/log n), and for an arbitrary connected puzzle graph with bounded maximum degree, p_c(n)=O(1/log n) and ω(1/n^b)for any b>0. Surprisingly, with probability tending to 1 as the network size increases to infinity, social networks with a power-law degree distribution cannot solve any bounded-degree puzzle. This model suggests a mechanism for recent empirical claims that innovation increases with social density, and it might begin to show what social networks stifle creativity and what networks collectively innovate.

Brummitt, Charles D.; Chatterjee, Shirshendu; Dey, Partha S.; Sivakoff, David. Jigsaw percolation: What social networks can collaboratively solve a puzzle?. Ann. Appl. Probab. 25 (2015), no. 4, 2013--2038. doi:10.1214/14-AAP1041.http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoap/1432212435.


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