Trust your gut -- as long as you're an expert. So says a new study. How expert someone is within a particular domain has a positive impact on their ability to make an accurate gut decision," said Rice's Erik Dane, lead author of a study published last month in the journal Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. However, he added, "Even if you're an expert, intuitive decision-making is better for some types of tasks than others. Tasks that can be solved through predetermined steps, like math problems, are not as conducive to intuitive decision-making as less-structured tasks, which may include certain strategic or human resource management problems."
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(From the article): "Once again, the researchers found that intuition was more effective for those with high expertise. In the intuition condition, participants with high expertise demonstrated higher task performance. In the analysis condition, those with high expertise performed no better than those with low expertise."
Sometimes some decisions are made with no logic nor intuition but just by luck. If your decision was right you can always say it was intuition while in fact is is like playing red or black at the roulette each time you have 50% chances to win.
Nice take on decision making - but making a decision and learning from it right or wrong strikes me as the key thing.