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Comment prendre une bonne décision? (Vidéo, 50')

Comment prendre une bonne décision? (Vidéo, 50') | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Qu’il s’agisse d’une paire de chaussures ou de son partenaire pour la vie.... nous savons tous combien il est difficile de faire le bon choix. Une décision réfléchie est l’aboutissement d’un processus complexe que nous raconte avec un humour très british ce reportage de la BBC. Nous verrons notamment que pour résoudre des équations humaines subtiles, il peut être judicieux d’avoir recours à des formules mathématiques !
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Très bonne émission qui couvre bien le thème.

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 18, 2014 10:33 AM

Très bonne émission qui couvre bien le thème.

Mindfull Decision Making
All about decision making and decision making processes
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Développer les leaders pour décider dans un environnement VUCA

Développer les leaders pour décider dans un environnement VUCA | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it

Depuis 4 ans, l’acronyme VUCA circule abondamment. Volatilité, Incertitude, Complexité, Ambiguïté. Le chaos serait la nouvelle norme. Les turbulences et les magnitudes des changements sont grandissantes. VUCA résume bien ce que nous vivons. Savoir y répondre démontre le leadership des DRH pour développer les cadres.


Via Edouard Siekierski, JP Fourcade, Philippe Prunier
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What is the "mother" of all framing questions?

What is the "mother" of all framing questions? | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
 My candidate for the "mother of all framing questions"…
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Study finds our thoughts are susceptible to external influence even against our will

Study finds our thoughts are susceptible to external influence even against our will | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
For a recent San Francisco State University study, participants were asked to look at a commonplace image but avoid thinking of the word that corresponds with the image or how many letters are in that word. The task may seem simple, but the study found that when presented with ☼, for example, nearly ...
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Already know but gets forgotten: "we have less control of what we will think of next"

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Resilient Leadership Navy Seal Style

Resilient Leadership Navy Seal Style | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it

Leaders face stress and adversity in large part because, like the goldfish in dirty water, they can't see through their situation. Consequently, the limits set by a company's cultural blind spots, those places where the company is stuck in a rut of decision making and truly can't see the forest for the trees, pile on more stress. The result: Decision-making goes from bad to worse. It can happen to anyone.

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Video (4'): How to improve decision making (Kahneman)

Video (4'): How to improve decision making (Kahneman) | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Nobel economics Laureate Daniel Kahneman describes how using a two-step approach can help organizations reduce risk and improve decision making.
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Short explanation of Thinking fast and slow (Systems 1 and 2) by David Kahneman (Video 4').

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La décision dans un monde VICA (2/2)

La décision dans un monde VICA (2/2) | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Ce que le règlement militaire de l'Armée Suisse dit sur la prise de décision - et l'inadéquation de ces propos avec la réalité d'un monde VICA
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The Future of Decision Making: Less Intuition, More Evidence

Human intuition can be astonishingly good, especially after it’s improved by experience. Savvy poker players are so good at reading their opponents’ cards and bluffs that they seem to have x-ray vision. Firefighters can, under extreme duress, anticipate how flames will spread through a building. And nurses in neonatal ICUs can tell if a baby has […]
Philippe Vallat's insight:

This is an example of a bad article about intuition:

  • it does not define (properly) intuition
  • it goes from the premise, that every decision is a deduction from past data/experience


A true decision is a decision under uncertainty, otherwise it is a deduction.


Don't get missleaded!

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Leadership en zone d’incertitude: l’exemple des Forces Spéciales

Pour tirer pleinement parti des capacités très spécialisées de leurs membres, les forces spéciales ont développé un style de leadership s’éloignant de la relation chef-subalterne, pour se concentrer sur la relation entre le leader et son équipe.
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Citation: "A l’instar des commandos, les managers doivent abandonner l’illusion du contrôle pour assumer l’incertitude, accepter de lâcher prise et de faire confiance à leurs équipes, développer des stratégies d’adaptation, et apprendre à improviser en situation."

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Anne Landreat's curator insight, November 11, 2014 12:48 PM
A l’instar des commandos, les managers doivent abandonner l’illusion du contrôle pour assumer l’incertitude, accepter de lâcher prise et de faire confiance à leurs équipes, développer des stratégies d’adaptation, et apprendre à improviser en situation.
3- Les exigences du leadership commandoDans une opération commando, la prise de décision engage la vie du groupe. le succès de l’équipe repose sur la performance collective, qui dépasse la somme des efforts de chacun. Mais rien ne peut se produire sans un chef préparé et respecté par les membres de son équipe. Animé d’une véritable culture stratégique, et d’une forte capacité de dialogue, le chef d’équipe est capable de prendre du recul y compris lorsqu’il est sous pression. A l’aise dans les situations ambigües, c’est un manager rompu à l’art du « décryptage » des signaux faibles précurseurs des menaces et des crises.

 

4- Les leçons de la culture commandoLa culture commando met l’accent sur la créativité et l’esprit d’innovation en situation de stress, ainsi que sur le leadership et la résolution de problèmes en situation d’incertitude.
En cela elle constitue une source d’inspiration et un exemple pour des managers confrontés à la pression à l’incertitude et à la crise.
Comme le souligne très justement Daniel Hervouët (*), l’expérience de l’exercice du leadership chez les commandos constitue une sorte d’élixir obtenu à haute pression. Ce qui a été mis au point dans des conditions plus dures peut être ensuite mis en œuvre dans des conditions normales, car les tests en ont validé le contenu.

 


Stéphane RENAUD's curator insight, November 12, 2014 6:10 AM

En situation extrême ou dans le management quotidien, la confiance et l'intelligence collective sont le binôme de choc !

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Pressentiment : le corps messager

Pressentiment : le corps messager | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Savoir quelque chose juste avant que cela n'arrive... Non, ce n'est pas de la science fiction, mais un phénomène intuitif commun appelé pressentiment. Les neuroscientifiques lui ont consacré de nom...

Via Frédéric Brutier
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Are Women Better Decision Makers?

Are Women Better Decision Makers? | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it

Neuroscientists have uncovered evidence suggesting that, when the pressure is on, women bring unique strengths to decision making.

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In short: "Stressed women tended to make more advantageous decisions, looking for smaller, surer successes. Not so for the stressed men. The closer the timer got to zero, the more questionable the men’s decision making became, risking a lot for the slim chance of a big achievement. The men were also less aware that they had used a risky strategy."

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Apocalyptic Decision Making – Dealing with Uncertainty – Influencing and Problem Solving

Apocalyptic Decision Making – Dealing with Uncertainty – Influencing and Problem Solving | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
When confronted with uncertainty in decision making, we tend to focus more on what we know. Three things help us address it in decision making
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A clear business vision statement will guide your company's decision making.

A clear business vision statement will guide your company's decision making. | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
A compelling business vision statement will provide a clear and powerful image of your company's future.
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Jürgen Kanz's curator insight, November 14, 2014 11:15 AM

The article describes the way how to define the highest level in Strategy & Tactic Trees (S&T) of TOC - Theory of Constraints. Somewhere above the Viable Vision

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How Does Your Ego Impact Your Decision Making?

How Does Your Ego Impact Your Decision Making? | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Do you know of anyone who has suppressed bad news to preserve their career or reputation?Or told the boss what they wanted to hear instead of the truth?Or overlooked a red flag to preserve the sense of harmony in the workplace?Most often ego is catalogued as 'good' or 'bad', but what if it's simply about your relationship with yourself? At the heart of the matter your ego, your self-esteem, self-worth and personal sense of security, chaperons your decision-making. Does the business culture have an impact on your ego?It’s absurd to pretend that the business culture doesn’t have an
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Miklos Szilagyi's curator insight, Today, 3:48 AM

"...Transformational leaders have a habit of boldly going to those shadow sides, greet the skeletons, so you can get to know yourself from every angle and so you can strengthen your comfort with being in your skin..."

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"A Powerful Lesson On Decision-Making In A Fast-Paced World"

"A Powerful Lesson On Decision-Making In A Fast-Paced World" | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it

In this guest piece by David Marquet, Retired U.S. Navy Captain, David chronicles his experiences and mistakes while in command of the submarine the USS Santa Fe to reveal how you can empower your employees and colleagues to think for themselves.


Via Anne Leong
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Quote:

"With intent-based leadership, you must take time to let others react to the situation as well.

You have to create a space for open decision by the entire team, even if that space is only a few minutes, or a few seconds, long. This is harder than in the leader-follower approach because it requires you to anticipate decisions and alert your team to the need for an upcoming one. In a top-down hierarchy, sub-ordinates don’t need to be thinking ahead because the boss will make a decision when needed."

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Toward a general theoretical framework for judgment and decision-making

Over the past 30 years, behavioral and experimental economists and psychologists have made great strides in identifying phenomena that cannot be explained by the classical model of rational choice–anomalies in the discounting of future wealth, present bias, loss aversion, the endowment effect, and aversion to ambiguity, for example. In response to these findings, there has been an enormous amount of research by behavioral scientists aimed at modeling and understanding the nature of these biases. However, these models, typically assuming situation-specific psychological processes, have shed limited light on the conditions for and boundaries of the different biases, substantially neglecting their relative importance and joint effect. Much less attention has been paid to the investigation of the links between different biases. As a consequence of this approach, it is not always clear which model should be used to predict behavior in a new setting, and maybe a more general theory is needed. We believe that the field of neuroeconomics, which has experienced a rapid growth over the past decade, can play an important role in bridging these gaps, contributing to the building of a general theoretical framework for judgment and decision-making behaviors.

Apparently inconsistent biases
One of the main insights from decision-making studies is that people tend to overweight small probability events in risky one-shot decisions (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). This tendency can explain why, for example, people buy lottery tickets and insurance. However, one might wonder, for instance, why in most Western Countries driving insurance is compulsory (how many drivers would spontaneously ensure?); Why the enforcement of safety rules at the workplace and of safe medical procedures have become social issues of primary importance, causing massive public and private investments (Erev et al., 2010); or why only a small share of people actually participate in lotto games on a regular basis (Pérez & Humphreys, 2011). 


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Anxious Leaders Make Better Decisions

Anxious Leaders Make Better Decisions | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Cass R. Sunstein is the law professor who with economist RichardThaler introduced the world to “nudge”, a concept that they say shows how governments and other organizations can encourage individuals to make better decisions. The idea and the book of the same name struck a chord with President Barack Obama and UK Prime Minister David Cameron and led to Sunstein spending a period in the Obama Administration. Now back in academe, Sunstein is still thinking about how people make decisions and with a new co-author, Reid Hastie, a  professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago, has published a book that claims to challenge the notion that decisions made by groups are better than those made by people on their own.

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The Brain: Being Positive or Negative, and Intuition

The Brain: Being Positive or Negative, and Intuition | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it

Neuroscience is discovering that the brain has a ‘negativity bias.’ This is because processing danger signals is more important to survival than processing signals that are safe. This seems like a sensible adaption of the brain in early humans. We no longer live in constant danger to our survival. It seems some of our primal fears have survived into modern times, though perhaps they have morphed and may not be so recognizable.

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Stress can reduce you to a 'small child' and impair critical decision making

Stress can reduce you to a 'small child' and impair critical decision making | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
IF you think being under pressure helps you perform better then you're lying to yourself! Research has revealed stress can impair your ability to think critically
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How Do Agents Make Decisions?

When designing an agent-based simulation, an important question to answer is how to model the decision making processes of the agents in the system. A large number of agent decision making models can be found in the literature, each inspired by different aims and research questions. In this paper we provide a review of 14 agent decision making architectures that have attracted interest. They range from production-rule systems to psychologically- and neurologically-inspired approaches. For each of the architectures we give an overview of its design, highlight research questions that have been answered with its help and outline the reasons for the choice of the decision making model provided by the originators. Our goal is to provide guidelines about what kind of agent decision making model, with which level of simplicity or complexity, to use for which kind of research question.by Tina Balke and Nigel Gilbert


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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, November 12, 2014 2:13 PM

For those note familiar with agent-based social simulation, the idea is to simulate the individual decisions of many "agents", each representing a person, in some situation.  For example, we might model decisions that people make as they move through a train station or amusement park, in order to design those places to best handle traffic flow. 


This is a terrific, comprehensive review article, covering a number of ways of approaching the task of modeling those individual decisions made by simulated agents.  Each is designed with somewhat different constraints in mind.  For instance, some models like SOAR, are meant to mimic certain cognitive processes.


From a Decision Intelligence point of view, these approaches are complementary.  If we want a sophisticated model of the emergent behavior of a large number of people, as one building block in a decision model for what to do about it, an agent-based simulation can be very helpful. For instance, we might be trying to decide which new medicine to launch, taking into account our competitors, our price to produce the medicine, and its impact on disease.  Part of that decision model might be based on an agent-based simulation of the decisions that people make to take the medicine, and their behavior that leads to contracting the disease. 


To continue the example, we could either use an agent-based simulation to learn from the agent-based simulation, or have it run in the same simulation as a decision model. For an example of the first, an agent-based simulation might show that the disease is expected to grow geographically according to a certain pattern. That spread pattern would then be an external input to a decision model. 


The second way to use this is to use the decision model to interactively move certain assumptions about the decision-making process, and to immediately observe the impact on agents. For instance, we may adjust the number of dollars invested in a public health campaign and observe how that impacts the emergent properties of an agent-based simulation.  There are a lot of possibilities here!



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Why Intuit Founder Scott Cook Wants You To Stop Listening To Your Boss

Why Intuit Founder Scott Cook Wants You To Stop Listening To Your Boss | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Why do gigantic companies made up of insanely intelligent people make bad decisions? Because they rely on persuasion and PowerPoint, Cook says, not...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

I like that one: "you make better decisions because it's actually real consumers or real production methods that aren't based on theory or a PowerPoint. It's based on real results."

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, November 6, 2014 3:31 AM

Lean-Startup approach: experiment, experiment, experiment again...

David Hain's curator insight, November 6, 2014 3:46 AM

"...So I said, wait a minute. Whenever reasonable, let's move from decisions by persuasion to decisions by experiment." - Intuit founder

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Framework for Fairness: A model for fair decision making in business

Framework for Fairness: A model for fair decision making in business | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Some notions seem obvious: the need to be fair, the need to do right. And yet in our societies we are not equal. We fail to do the right thing on many levels, not because we are bad people, but bec...

Via Claude Emond
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Claude Emond's curator insight, October 30, 2014 10:29 PM

This is an awesome post. Very nice framework.I will promote it, try it myself and add it in my decision making workshops

Claude Emond's curator insight, October 30, 2014 10:32 PM

This is an awesome post. Very nice framework.I will promote it, try it myself and add it in my decision making workshops

Pierre Deschênes's curator insight, October 31, 2014 2:25 PM

Un processes simple pour mesurer et concevoir l'équité. 

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La décision dans un monde VICA (1/2)

La décision dans un monde VICA (1/2) | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it

Automne 1941. L’amiral américain Husband E. Kimmel,  commandant en chef de la flotte du Pacifique, a réuni son état-major. Les nouvelles sont mauvaises : la flotte japonaise a disparu et nul ne connaît ses intentions. Sont-elles belliqueuses ? Faut-il mobiliser l’armée des Etats-Unis qui ne sont pas encore en guerre ? Confusion, incertitudes, enjeux majeurs - la base de décision de l’Amiral n’est pas très confortable, aussi exhorte-t-il son état-major à « craquer le code radio des japonais » pour enfin savoir, afin qu’il puisse prendre « la meilleure des décisions ».

Philippe Vallat's insight:

Premier de 2 articles sur la décision dans l'incertitude, publiés dans le Bulletin de la Société Fribourgeoise des Officiers.

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Collective choices under ambiguity

Abstract: We investigate experimentally whether collective choice matters for individual attitudes to ambiguity. We consider a two-urn Ellsberg experiment: one urn offers a 45% chance of winning a fixed monetary prize, the other an ambiguous chance. Participants choose either individually or in groups of three. Group decision rules vary. In one treatment the collective choice is taken by majority; in another it is dictated by two group members; in the third it is dictated by a single group member. We observe high proportions of ambiguity averse choices in both individual and collective decision making. Although a majority of participants display consistent ambiguity attitudes across their decisions, collective choice tends to foster ambiguity aversion, especially if the decision rule assigns asymmetric responsibilities to group members. Previous participation in laboratory experiments may miti- gate this.


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How to Instantly Tell If Someone is About to Make a Good Decision (Or Not)

How to Instantly Tell If Someone is About to Make a Good Decision (Or Not) | Mindfull Decision Making | Scoop.it
Study finds intriguing link between decision-making and this subtle signal.
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