An odd feeling in your gut. A subtle sense of foreboding. A funny inkling. A knowing whisper: “steer well away.”
I’m sure you’ve felt those intuitive murmurs yourself. The question is, how often have you trusted them? And those times you didn’t, how did it cost you—professionally, personally, financially or physically?
Beyond our conscious awareness, our “sixth sense” reads minuscule signals that point us to pay attention to something…or someone. Wired only to perception, our intuition can guide us to making snap decisions we later marvel at. “Somehow I just knew,” people will later say about a hidden danger they just knew to veer away from or an opportunity they spontaneously seized despite knowing little about it.
New research suggests that we use situational ambiguity to justify lies and deceptions. Experts discovered that we tend to lie and cheat only to the extent that we can justify our transgressions. Viewing an issue in shades of gray appears to relax our...
The General Manager (GM) of a municipal department was repeatedly getting bad press for the all-too apparent failings in maintaining city roads, drainage, sewage, and water. Continuous breakdowns in water supply, blockages in main drains and sewers were inconveniencing city residents and creating high costs in property damage...
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Reflexions about complexity, uncertainty, systems thinking in decision making
Behavioral economist Dan Ariely, the author of Predictably Irrational, uses classic visual illusions and his own counterintuitive (and sometimes shocking) research findings to show how we're not as rational as we think when we make decisions.
When it comes to building the physical world, we kind of understand our limitations. We build steps. And we build these things that not everybody can use obviously. (Laughter) We understand our limitations,and we build around it. But for some reason when it comes to the mental world, when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets, we somehow forget the idea that we are limited. I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations in the same way that we understand our physical limitations, even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way, we could design a better world.And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
A recent Harvard Business Review article revealed that one in six IT projects has a cost overrun of 200%. Debbie Madden, CEO and Cofounder at Stride Consulting, shares her views on no-estimates, in her blog on “Your Agile Project Needs a Budget, Not an Estimate”. She says that because of the high rate of failure for estimation, stop estimating and start budgeting.
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Interesting point of view: 5 different decision-making strategies that can be applied to software projects without requiring a long winded, estimation process up front
It's easy to dismiss intuition as something 'flaky'. Yet everyone has had an experience that they could not explain, a bit of serendipity, a hunch. Successful entrepreneurs rely on it. So if your intuition has not served you well, you're probably just not tuned into it.
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Very good podcast with Rollin McCraty: he distinguishes between 3 types of intuition:
Depuis 4 ans, l’acronyme VUCA circule abondamment. Volatilité, Incertitude, Complexité, Ambiguïté. Le chaos serait la nouvelle norme. Les turbulences et les magnitudes des changements sont grandissantes. VUCA résume bien ce que nous vivons. Savoir y répondre démontre le leadership des DRH pour développer les cadres.
Being an entrepreneur isn’t for everyone though making decisions like one gives you the advantage especially when you’re faced with uncertain outcomes or conflicting information. To confuse matters more, the stalwart reference for traditional business thinkers is the Harvard Business Review, which, unfortunately, stands by rational decision making because you can’t control those pesky biases and your unreliable intuition. The simple reality is that when stakes are high, conditions are dynamic, and when an instant decision is required, repeatedly successful entrepreneurs rely
La prise de décision fait partie du quotidien professionnel. Pas toujours facile pourtant de trancher, tant les paramètres à prendre en compte peuvent parfois être nombreux. Découvrez les différentes méthodes de la prise de décision, leurs avantages, leurs inconvénients.
"...the stakes are rising as the methods and mind-set of data science spread across the economy and society. Big companies and start-ups are beginning to use the technology in decisions like medical diagnosis, crime prevention and loan approvals. The application of data science to such fields raises questions of when close human supervision of an algorithm’s results is needed."
The Laplace's demon is not dead... Machines can compute and deduce, but certainly not decide - as decision always includes some uncertainty. True is also that some fact finding and calculation can reduce human biases - as long as enough time and quality and availability of the data are given.
Study debunks long-held myth probably arising from the confirmation bias.
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Well, another bias in the debunking of bias: "there’s NO evidence that the moon has any influence" does NOT mean, that there is no influence... It is a belief that only what science can prove does indeed exist...
Une prise de décision, ce n’est quand même pas souvent le choix de Sophie. Pourtant, de choix cornélien en dilemme inextricable, il arrive qu’elle ressemble davantage à une prise de tête qu’à un pique-nique au bord de l’eau. Souvent, ne sachant pas trop comment nous y prendre, nous avons vaille que vaille recours au bon vieux avantages/inconvénients, dont l’inutilité n’explique pas la longévité! Heureusement, il y a des alternatives et avant de les explorer, voyons comment nous prenons nos décisions.
Do you know of anyone who has suppressed bad news to preserve their career or reputation?Or told the boss what they wanted to hear instead of the truth?Or overlooked a red flag to preserve the sense of harmony in the workplace?Most often ego is catalogued as 'good' or 'bad', but what if it's simply about your relationship with yourself? At the heart of the matter your ego, your self-esteem, self-worth and personal sense of security, chaperons your decision-making. Does the business culture have an impact on your ego?It’s absurd to pretend that the business culture doesn’t have an
In this guest piece by David Marquet, Retired U.S. Navy Captain, David chronicles his experiences and mistakes while in command of the submarine the USS Santa Fe to reveal how you can empower your employees and colleagues to think for themselves.
"With intent-based leadership, you must take time to let others react to the situation as well.
You have to create a space for open decision by the entire team, even if that space is only a few minutes, or a few seconds, long. This is harder than in the leader-follower approach because it requires you to anticipate decisions and alert your team to the need for an upcoming one. In a top-down hierarchy, sub-ordinates don’t need to be thinking ahead because the boss will make a decision when needed."
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