Abstract: We investigate experimentally whether collective choice matters for individual attitudes to ambiguity. We consider a two-urn Ellsberg experiment: one urn offers a 45% chance of winning a fixed monetary prize, the other an ambiguous chance. Participants choose either individually or in groups of three. Group decision rules vary. In one treatment the collective choice is taken by majority; in another it is dictated by two group members; in the third it is dictated by a single group member. We observe high proportions of ambiguity averse choices in both individual and collective decision making. Although a majority of participants display consistent ambiguity attitudes across their decisions, collective choice tends to foster ambiguity aversion, especially if the decision rule assigns asymmetric responsibilities to group members. Previous participation in laboratory experiments may miti- gate this.
Of the many lessons I learned after spending 13 years as a Navy SEAL, one critical takeaway is that the ideal solution does not exist. The perfect mission simply does not occur because change is constant and occurs at the most inopportune time, which means the moons of opportunity will just never fully align. Consider, for example, the raid on Osama bin Laden in 2011.
Research has found that just 15 minutes of mindful meditation can help people make more rational decisions, suggesting a way to boost business performance by improving employee health via corporate meditation programmes.
Companies and individuals face various problems daily. Some of these problems are the direct consequences of our actions or reactions to the situations we face. When we fail to explore the nuances and complexity of a problem, our response is not as flexible and effective as it should be. Systems today are volatile, uncertain, complex…
Philippe Vallat's insight:
A systemic (and human) view of decision making in a complex environment
In the last 400 years physics has achieved great success, in theory and experimentation, determining the structure of matter and energy. The next great step in the evolution of science will be exploring the role of mind and consciousness in the universe, employing mathematics and fundamental theoretical constructs to yield specific predictions. Based on recent findings in biological autonomy, we propose to approach consciousness from the key aspect of decision-making.
if biological decision-making occurs through the quantum-vacuum and the Universe as a whole can be regarded as conscious or equivalently living, then decision-making can also occur through the autonomy of a living Universe.
At present, it is generally conceded that we do not know how our minds interact with our bodies.
the phenomenon of intuition seems to be related to cellular and universal consciousness as basic ingredients of organismal mind
living organisms, including the human, are first of all systems of consciousness capable of makingdecisions.
Our tendency to choose options that appear less valuable than alternative options (such as choosing to stick with our original choice in the Monty Hall Problem) is often cited as evidence for our irrationality. However, the view that we are irrational derives too from inconsistency in our preferences.
When it comes to making decisions, the fact is we think much less than we think we think! Behavioural Economics has shown that our decisions are guided not by our plans or intentions, but by where we are, the people we’re with and the unconscious forces inside us. Summaries of Behavioural Economics offer a collection of delightful anecdotes, but can leave you wondering how on earth to use it. To make sense of it, join Orlando Wood as he talks through BrainJuicer’s Behavioural Model; learn why it’s so important to make buying your brand fun, fast and easy and how the behavioural sciences can inspire better research and marketing.
The way you make decisions determines your career trajectory, and if you want to rise high, you must aim for a leader-like style. I always thought of myself as a decisive person. But after reading Julia Tang Peters’ book Pivot …Read »
Die Verdatung unserer Lebens ermöglicht der Medizin immer präzisere Prognosen. Aber führt das auch zu bessere Entscheidungen für unsere Gesundheit? Nur wenn wir unsere Entscheidungsverfahren auf den neuesten Stand bringen.
Your decision making style can be intellectual or emotional, rational or irrational. Learn about the pros and cons of the four types of decision making styles.
Philippe Vallat's insight:
I fully agree with the conclusion:
"By understanding your personal decision making style, it is possible to make adjustments according to the situation and results you are working towards. Strong decision making requires the ability to assess the situation, determine the best style of decision making."
Armed with mountains of data, reams of corporate filings and advice from professionals, investors often rely on a range of emotions to make financial decisions – whether they realize it or not. And those underlying feelings can present roadblocks to rational investing.
Individuals in groups, whether composed of humans or other animal species, often make important decisions collectively, including avoiding predators, selecting a direction in which to migrate and electing political leaders. Theoretical and empirical work suggests that collective decisions can be more accurate than individual decisions, a phenomenon known as the ‘wisdom of crowds’.
[...] Our results demonstrate that the conventional view of the wisdom of crowds may not be informative in complex and realistic environments, and that being in small groups can maximize decision accuracy across many contexts.