Que savons-nous de notre ventre, cet organe bourré de neurones, que les chercheurs commencent à peine à explorer ? Selon cette captivante enquête scientifique, il semblerait que notre cerveau ne soit pas le seul maître à bord.
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Vous serez surpris sur ce que nous sommes vraiment...
Being an entrepreneur isn’t for everyone though making decisions like one gives you the advantage especially when you’re faced with uncertain outcomes or conflicting information. To confuse matters more, the stalwart reference for traditional business thinkers is the Harvard Business Review, which, unfortunately, stands by rational decision making because you can’t control those pesky biases and your unreliable intuition. The simple reality is that when stakes are high, conditions are dynamic, and when an instant decision is required, repeatedly successful entrepreneurs rely
La prise de décision fait partie du quotidien professionnel. Pas toujours facile pourtant de trancher, tant les paramètres à prendre en compte peuvent parfois être nombreux. Découvrez les différentes méthodes de la prise de décision, leurs avantages, leurs inconvénients.
"...the stakes are rising as the methods and mind-set of data science spread across the economy and society. Big companies and start-ups are beginning to use the technology in decisions like medical diagnosis, crime prevention and loan approvals. The application of data science to such fields raises questions of when close human supervision of an algorithm’s results is needed."
The Laplace's demon is not dead... Machines can compute and deduce, but certainly not decide - as decision always includes some uncertainty. True is also that some fact finding and calculation can reduce human biases - as long as enough time and quality and availability of the data are given.
"The results showed that when the participants were shown the positive subliminal images, they did better on the task: They were more accurate in determining which way the dots were moving. But they also responded more quickly and reported feeling more confident in their choice.
The experiments also suggested that the participants became better at using their intuition over time, Pearson said. "It's all about learning to use unconscious information in your brain," he said. Just as people can become more comfortable making decisions when they apply logic and reasoning, they may also become more adept at trusting their intuition when they use it more frequently over time, the study revealed. "
Deux psychologues, Julia Shaw (université du Bedfordshire, Royaume-Uni) et Stephen Porter (université de Colombie-Britannique, Canada), ont élaboré une expérience originale dont les résultats, qui viennent d'être publiés par la revue Psychological Science, eux aussi dérangent, car ils montrent à quel point il est simple de convaincre une personne qu'elle a commis un crime (au sens anglo-saxon du terme)
Big-data analysis consists of searching for buried patterns that have some kind of predictive power. But choosing which "features" of the data to analyze usually requires some human intuition. In a database containing, say, ...
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Well, a) there is no definition of "human intuition" and b) computer can certainly calculate better then humans (e.g. avoid psychological biases), but have no clue to intuite about unpredictable events...
Chez le bison d’Europe, chaque animal peut exprimer sa préférence lors des déplacements en groupe. La direction choisie reflétera l’avis de la majorité. Chaque animal peut exprimer sa préférence et la majorité l’emporte
Excellent health care is one in which patients, professionals and managers apply the best available knowledge in decision making. Only well-informed agents can take the most appropriate decisions for an effective, safe and efficient health system.
An odd feeling in your gut. A subtle sense of foreboding. A funny inkling. A knowing whisper: “steer well away.”
I’m sure you’ve felt those intuitive murmurs yourself. The question is, how often have you trusted them? And those times you didn’t, how did it cost you—professionally, personally, financially or physically?
Beyond our conscious awareness, our “sixth sense” reads minuscule signals that point us to pay attention to something…or someone. Wired only to perception, our intuition can guide us to making snap decisions we later marvel at. “Somehow I just knew,” people will later say about a hidden danger they just knew to veer away from or an opportunity they spontaneously seized despite knowing little about it.
New research suggests that we use situational ambiguity to justify lies and deceptions. Experts discovered that we tend to lie and cheat only to the extent that we can justify our transgressions. Viewing an issue in shades of gray appears to relax our...
The General Manager (GM) of a municipal department was repeatedly getting bad press for the all-too apparent failings in maintaining city roads, drainage, sewage, and water. Continuous breakdowns in water supply, blockages in main drains and sewers were inconveniencing city residents and creating high costs in property damage...
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Reflexions about complexity, uncertainty, systems thinking in decision making
Behavioral economist Dan Ariely, the author of Predictably Irrational, uses classic visual illusions and his own counterintuitive (and sometimes shocking) research findings to show how we're not as rational as we think when we make decisions.
When it comes to building the physical world, we kind of understand our limitations. We build steps. And we build these things that not everybody can use obviously. (Laughter) We understand our limitations,and we build around it. But for some reason when it comes to the mental world, when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets, we somehow forget the idea that we are limited. I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations in the same way that we understand our physical limitations, even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way, we could design a better world.And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
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