The General Manager (GM) of a municipal department was repeatedly getting bad press for the all-too apparent failings in maintaining city roads, drainage, sewage, and water. Continuous breakdowns in water supply, blockages in main drains and sewers were inconveniencing city residents and creating high costs in property damage...
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Reflexions about complexity, uncertainty, systems thinking in decision making
Behavioral economist Dan Ariely, the author of Predictably Irrational, uses classic visual illusions and his own counterintuitive (and sometimes shocking) research findings to show how we're not as rational as we think when we make decisions.
When it comes to building the physical world, we kind of understand our limitations. We build steps. And we build these things that not everybody can use obviously. (Laughter) We understand our limitations,and we build around it. But for some reason when it comes to the mental world, when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets, we somehow forget the idea that we are limited. I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations in the same way that we understand our physical limitations, even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way, we could design a better world.And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
A recent Harvard Business Review article revealed that one in six IT projects has a cost overrun of 200%. Debbie Madden, CEO and Cofounder at Stride Consulting, shares her views on no-estimates, in her blog on “Your Agile Project Needs a Budget, Not an Estimate”. She says that because of the high rate of failure for estimation, stop estimating and start budgeting.
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Interesting point of view: 5 different decision-making strategies that can be applied to software projects without requiring a long winded, estimation process up front
It's easy to dismiss intuition as something 'flaky'. Yet everyone has had an experience that they could not explain, a bit of serendipity, a hunch. Successful entrepreneurs rely on it. So if your intuition has not served you well, you're probably just not tuned into it.
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Very good podcast with Rollin McCraty: he distinguishes between 3 types of intuition:
Depuis 4 ans, l’acronyme VUCA circule abondamment. Volatilité, Incertitude, Complexité, Ambiguïté. Le chaos serait la nouvelle norme. Les turbulences et les magnitudes des changements sont grandissantes. VUCA résume bien ce que nous vivons. Savoir y répondre démontre le leadership des DRH pour développer les cadres.
For a recent San Francisco State University study, participants were asked to look at a commonplace image but avoid thinking of the word that corresponds with the image or how many letters are in that word. The task may seem simple, but the study found that when presented with ☼, for example, nearly ...
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Already know but gets forgotten: "we have less control of what we will think of next"
Leaders face stress and adversity in large part because, like the goldfish in dirty water, they can't see through their situation. Consequently, the limits set by a company's cultural blind spots, those places where the company is stuck in a rut of decision making and truly can't see the forest for the trees, pile on more stress. The result: Decision-making goes from bad to worse. It can happen to anyone.
La prise de décision fait partie du quotidien professionnel. Pas toujours facile pourtant de trancher, tant les paramètres à prendre en compte peuvent parfois être nombreux. Découvrez les différentes méthodes de la prise de décision, leurs avantages, leurs inconvénients.
"...the stakes are rising as the methods and mind-set of data science spread across the economy and society. Big companies and start-ups are beginning to use the technology in decisions like medical diagnosis, crime prevention and loan approvals. The application of data science to such fields raises questions of when close human supervision of an algorithm’s results is needed."
The Laplace's demon is not dead... Machines can compute and deduce, but certainly not decide - as decision always includes some uncertainty. True is also that some fact finding and calculation can reduce human biases - as long as enough time and quality and availability of the data are given.
Study debunks long-held myth probably arising from the confirmation bias.
Philippe Vallat's insight:
Well, another bias in the debunking of bias: "there’s NO evidence that the moon has any influence" does NOT mean, that there is no influence... It is a belief that only what science can prove does indeed exist...
Une prise de décision, ce n’est quand même pas souvent le choix de Sophie. Pourtant, de choix cornélien en dilemme inextricable, il arrive qu’elle ressemble davantage à une prise de tête qu’à un pique-nique au bord de l’eau. Souvent, ne sachant pas trop comment nous y prendre, nous avons vaille que vaille recours au bon vieux avantages/inconvénients, dont l’inutilité n’explique pas la longévité! Heureusement, il y a des alternatives et avant de les explorer, voyons comment nous prenons nos décisions.
Do you know of anyone who has suppressed bad news to preserve their career or reputation?Or told the boss what they wanted to hear instead of the truth?Or overlooked a red flag to preserve the sense of harmony in the workplace?Most often ego is catalogued as 'good' or 'bad', but what if it's simply about your relationship with yourself? At the heart of the matter your ego, your self-esteem, self-worth and personal sense of security, chaperons your decision-making. Does the business culture have an impact on your ego?It’s absurd to pretend that the business culture doesn’t have an
In this guest piece by David Marquet, Retired U.S. Navy Captain, David chronicles his experiences and mistakes while in command of the submarine the USS Santa Fe to reveal how you can empower your employees and colleagues to think for themselves.
"With intent-based leadership, you must take time to let others react to the situation as well.
You have to create a space for open decision by the entire team, even if that space is only a few minutes, or a few seconds, long. This is harder than in the leader-follower approach because it requires you to anticipate decisions and alert your team to the need for an upcoming one. In a top-down hierarchy, sub-ordinates don’t need to be thinking ahead because the boss will make a decision when needed."
Over the past 30 years, behavioral and experimental economists and psychologists have made great strides in identifying phenomena that cannot be explained by the classical model of rational choice–anomalies in the discounting of future wealth, present bias, loss aversion, the endowment effect, and aversion to ambiguity, for example. In response to these findings, there has been an enormous amount of research by behavioral scientists aimed at modeling and understanding the nature of these biases. However, these models, typically assuming situation-specific psychological processes, have shed limited light on the conditions for and boundaries of the different biases, substantially neglecting their relative importance and joint effect. Much less attention has been paid to the investigation of the links between different biases. As a consequence of this approach, it is not always clear which model should be used to predict behavior in a new setting, and maybe a more general theory is needed. We believe that the field of neuroeconomics, which has experienced a rapid growth over the past decade, can play an important role in bridging these gaps, contributing to the building of a general theoretical framework for judgment and decision-making behaviors.
Apparently inconsistent biases One of the main insights from decision-making studies is that people tend to overweight small probability events in risky one-shot decisions (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). This tendency can explain why, for example, people buy lottery tickets and insurance. However, one might wonder, for instance, why in most Western Countries driving insurance is compulsory (how many drivers would spontaneously ensure?); Why the enforcement of safety rules at the workplace and of safe medical procedures have become social issues of primary importance, causing massive public and private investments (Erev et al., 2010); or why only a small share of people actually participate in lotto games on a regular basis (Pérez & Humphreys, 2011).
Cass R. Sunstein is the law professor who with economist RichardThaler introduced the world to “nudge”, a concept that they say shows how governments and other organizations can encourage individuals to make better decisions. The idea and the book of the same name struck a chord with President Barack Obama and UK Prime Minister David Cameron and led to Sunstein spending a period in the Obama Administration. Now back in academe, Sunstein is still thinking about how people make decisions and with a new co-author, Reid Hastie, a professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago, has published a book that claims to challenge the notion that decisions made by groups are better than those made by people on their own.
Neuroscience is discovering that the brain has a ‘negativity bias.’ This is because processing danger signals is more important to survival than processing signals that are safe. This seems like a sensible adaption of the brain in early humans. We no longer live in constant danger to our survival. It seems some of our primal fears have survived into modern times, though perhaps they have morphed and may not be so recognizable.
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