"Asian Spring"
3.9K views | +0 today
Follow
"Asian Spring"
Tracking Freedom Movements in South Asia, Central Asia and the Jasmine in China
Curated by SASFOR
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Scooped by SASFOR
Scoop.it!

Who Are the Generals Surrounding Kim Jong-un

Who Are the Generals Surrounding Kim Jong-un | "Asian Spring" | Scoop.it

North Korea has done its best in the weeks since Kim Jong Il’s death to project an atmosphere of calmness, continuity, and stability in the transition from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un. Despite significant differences between 1994 and 2011, including the weakening of ideology, the lack of a long apprenticeship for Kim Jong-un, and an increasingly penetrated North Korean society, the North Korean leadership has been following the script provided by the succession of 1994 through its handling of the funeral arrangements and initial efforts to elevate Kim Jong-un as a leader.

 

However, we do not know what will happen as we reach the end of the script and Kim Jong-un starts to make decisions on his own: Will he take the advice of his regents at the risk of becoming a puppet and the face of the regime? Will other powerholders maneuver to marginalize the younger Kim Jong-un or strip him of power? Will Kim Jong-un be faced by unsolvable food shortages, continued loss of political control, and a failure of the North Korean patronage system as elites find new ways to make money to feather their own nests? Will there be a possible coup d’etat from rebellious military units such as that which was tried and failed in North Hamgyong in the mid-1990s?

 

To more clearly understand what we have learned through the funeral ceremony and initial efforts to promote Kim Jong-un as North Korea’s supreme commander, I asked CNA’s Ken Gause, a leading American analyst of North Korea’s political structure and leadership, to write on the initial developments in the post-Kim Jong-il era. You can find his must read here.( See Link below. Media SASFOR)

 

http://www.cfr.org/north-korea/leadership-transition-north-korea/p27071

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by SASFOR
Scoop.it!

Transition is not transformation

Transition is not transformation | "Asian Spring" | Scoop.it
Ouster of autocrats will not bring real change in Arab world; building of strong institutions will...

 

North Korea's future


The bigger question is the fate of North Korea. The country is a relic with an army and nuclear weapons and little else other than a long-suffering population. China, a critical source of fuel and food, as well as the gateway for much of North Korea's trade, will be the key factor that determines the country's future.


China fears that instability in the North could lead to a flood of refugees into China and conflict on the peninsula. Even more, Chinese leaders fear the unification of Korea under the control of Seoul and within the US security orbit. So they are likely to continue to prop up North Korea even while encouraging restraint and a degree of economic reform.


And what of those Arab countries that have rid themselves of their authoritarian rulers? It would help here to jettison the phrase ‘Arab Spring'. Spring is a three-month-long season of renewal, but what is going on in the Arab world probably will require decades to unfold, and it is far from inevitable that what comes will be welcome.


As difficult as it can be to oust a repressive regime, it is far harder to put something better and enduring in its place. Iraq's experience also suggests caution. Saddam Hussain's overthrow led to sectarianism and civil war. Things have calmed, but Iraq's future remains up in the air. In no way is it assured that the country will become normal.

more...
No comment yet.