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Managing the Transition
The Great Transition, a global shift of our paradigms, ways of thinking and lifestyles.
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Welcome, Robot Overlords. Please Don't Fire Us?

Welcome, Robot Overlords. Please Don't Fire Us? | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Smart machines probably won't kill us all—but they'll definitely take our jobs, and sooner than you think.

 

THIS IS A STORY ABOUT THE FUTURE. Not the unhappy future, the one where climate change turns the planet into a cinder or we all die in a global nuclear war. This is thehappy version. It's the one where computers keep getting smarter and smarter, and clever engineers keep building better and better robots. By 2040, computers the size of a softball are as smart as human beings. Smarter, in fact. Plus they're computers: They never get tired, they're never ill-tempered, they never make mistakes, and they have instant access to all of human knowledge.

The result is paradise. Global warming is a problem of the past because computers have figured out how to generate limitless amounts of green energy and intelligent robots have tirelessly built the infrastructure to deliver it to our homes. No one needs to work anymore. Robots can do everything humans can do, and they do it uncomplainingly, 24 hours a day. Some things remain scarce—beachfront property in Malibu, original Rembrandts—but thanks to super-efficient use of natural resources and massive recycling, scarcity of ordinary consumer goods is a thing of the past. Our days are spent however we please, perhaps in study, perhaps playing video games. It's up to us.

Maybe you think I'm pulling your leg here. Or being archly ironic. After all, this does have a bit of a rose-colored tint to it, doesn't it? Like something from The Jetsons or the cover ofWired. That would hardly be a surprising reaction. Computer scientists have been predicting the imminent rise of machine intelligence since at least 1956, when theDartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence gave the field its name, and there are only so many times you can cry wolf. Today, a full seven decades after the birth of the computer, all we have are iPhones, Microsoft Word, and in-dash navigation. You could be excused for thinking that computers that truly match the human brain are a ridiculous pipe dream.

 

But they're not. It's true that we've made far slower progress toward real artificial intelligence than we once thought, but that's for a very simple and very human reason: Early computer scientists grossly underestimated the power of the human brain and the difficulty of emulating one. It turns out that this is a very, very hard problem, sort of like filling up Lake Michigan one drop at a time. In fact, not just sort of like. It's exactly like filling up Lake Michigan one drop at a time. If you want to understand the future of computing, it's essential to understand this.


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12 Disruptive Technologies That Are Changing The World

12 Disruptive Technologies That Are Changing The World | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
A potential $33 trillion/year impact by 2025.
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27 Science Fictions That Became Science Facts In 2012

27 Science Fictions That Became Science Facts In 2012 | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
We may never have our flying cars, but the future is here. From creating fully functioning artificial leaves to hacking the human brain, science made a lot of breakthroughs this year.

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Clare Treloar's curator insight, December 21, 2012 10:28 PM

For the speculative fiction unit

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The minibus taxi industry in South Africa: A servant for the urban poor?

The minibus taxi industry in South Africa: A servant for the urban poor? | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Today, the South African minibus taxi industry remains the critical pillar of the country’s public transport sector. Not only is it the most available mode of transport, it is also the most affordable to the public.
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» L’économie symbiotique

» L’économie symbiotique | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it

L’économie symbiotique apporte ainsi une toute nouvelle voie pour le développement durable : Un développement où l’homme ne fait pas « moins pire » mais « bien ». Un développement où l’activité humaine n’est pas plus ou moins impactante mais devient positive. C’est une nouvelle voie pour l’économie et le développement des territoires. Une voie concrète qui a déjà ses références et ses acteurs.


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SPIRUVIE's curator insight, May 6, 2013 7:09 AM

effet rayon de Soleil de cet article... à approfondir. et peut-être va pour l'économie symbiotique :-)

Pierre Johnson's curator insight, October 25, 2013 7:13 PM

Reste à définir les dynamiques de transition vers l'économie symbiotique...

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VIDÉO. Changement climatique : pluies et sécheresses vont se radicaliser

VIDÉO. Changement climatique : pluies et sécheresses vont se radicaliser | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Selon une simulation de la Nasa, la concentration en dioxyde de carbone dans l'atmosphère augmente les risques de précipitations et de sécheresses extrêmes.

Via Hubert MESSMER @Zehub on Twitter
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L’économie circulaire… pour empêcher l’économie de tourner en rond

L’économie circulaire… pour empêcher l’économie de tourner en rond | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it

Transposer l’équation « Extraire, produire, consommer, jeter » de l’économie actuelle, fondée sur le gaspillage des ressources naturelles, par un système alternatif : le cycle des écosystèmes. Tel est l’objectif de l’Institut de l’économie circulaire, officiellement lancé le 6 février dernier. Un principe économique  et écologique simple est affirmé : les déchets des uns sont récupérés pour devenir des ressources pour d’autres. La rédaction d’un livre blanc pourrait aboutir à un projet de loi en 2017.


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Bruno Marzloff - Théorie du drone ou l'homme distant et disloqué - Blog - Groupe Chronos

Bruno Marzloff - Théorie du drone ou l'homme distant et disloqué - Blog - Groupe Chronos | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
La guerre ne vous grise pas ? Vous serez pourtant stupéfaits par Théorie du drone, sorti fin avril aux éditions La Fabrique. Grégoire Chamayou y interpelle la guerre à distance, qui mobilise milit...
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Les lunettes connectées de Digitas

Les lunettes connectées de Digitas | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it

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Grd Lyon-millenaire3's curator insight, April 19, 2013 7:52 AM

Digitas a présenté le prototype de ses fameuses lunettes lors de la présentation de la seconde édition du Baromètre de l’Expérience Marchande Connectée. Le premier enseignement de cette nouvelle édition montre que les attentes et comportements « précurseurs » des consommateurs vis-à-vis des usages digitaux en situation d’achat, identifiés lors de la première édition du Baromètre de l’Expérience Marchande Connectée 2012, se sont amplifiés et sont arrivés à maturité via la progression des usages mobiles et tablettes. Conséquence, pour Digitas, le consommateur devient de plus en plus malin, préparant ses achats, comparant les prix et les avis consommateurs dans le magasin. Il est donc de moins en moins captif. Ces « Smart Shopper » sont d’autant plus exigeants. Ils sont de plus en plus nombreux à quitter les magasins sans achat, simplement en ayant consulté leur mobile et comparé des prix, des avis clients, des informations, ce qui alimente le phénomène du showrooming.

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Les projets industriels de plus en plus confrontés à l'acceptabilité sociale

Les projets industriels de plus en plus confrontés à l'acceptabilité sociale | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
De plus en plus souvent, les nouveaux projets industriels font l'objet d'une vive contestation de la part des populations. L'acceptabilité sociale devient un enjeu pour les entreprises, mais elle reste encore mal comprise. La sociologue Corinne Gendron revient sur ce concept.

 


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Michel Lussault / Habiter la terre - Idées - France Culture

Michel Lussault / Habiter la terre - Idées - France Culture | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it

Michel Lussault est l'invité de Sylvain Bourmeau pour présenter son dernier livre  :

  - L'avènement du monde : Essai sur l'habitation humaine de la terre (Editions du Seuil, 28 février 2013 - la couleur des idées)

Michel Lussault est géographe et Directeur de l'IFE (Institut Français de l'Education à l'ENS-Lyon.)

A partir de quelques exemples concrets, il explique ce qu'est l'expérience humaine de l'habitation et en quoi consiste ladimension "spaciale" des expériences humaines dans le monde (L'avion qui permet d'entrer de "plein pied" dans le monde, l'Exposition internationale de Shanghaï en 2010 (un fait spacial total) et la réhabilitation lente à l'emplacement des tours du World Trade center, qui demande du temps et de la lenteur pour permettre un nouvel "ancrage" dans ce lieu.)

En un demi-siècle, le monde est devenu le Monde.

Avec cette majuscule, il ne s'agit pas de dire que le monde a changé sous l'effet de la mondialisation, mais d'affirmer qu'il est véritablement advenu, subvertissant les ordres anciens (empires, États, villes, etc.) et les catégories intellectuelles qui nous permettaient de les penser. La mondialisation bouleverse tout et construit de nouveaux cadres de vie et d'organisation des sociétés humaines. Les mutations sont de tous ordres et l'on peine encore à stabiliser les analyses, sans doute parce que nos outils conceptuels, forgés aux XIXe et XXe siècles, sont désormais largement inadaptés.

Ce livre ambitieux souhaite sortir de cette impasse et cerner quelques-unes des forces instituantes et imaginantes du Monde, et en particulier l'urbain, parce que le Monde se manifeste d'abord et surtout par de nouvelles manières d'habiter la Terre. Le Monde est une nouvelle organisation spatiale des réalités sociales, produisant des imaginaires inédits et contribuant à la création et à la diffusion d'images qui en elles-mêmes expriment la mondialité. Car le Monde nous traverse de part en part en permanence : nous en sommes chacun tout à la fois un produit, un jouet, un vecteur, un acteur.

À partir de là, comment imaginer une «politique du Monde» quand on sait que l'avenir dépendra de notre capacité commune à garantir son habitabilité pour les décennies qui viennent ?

"Globalisation économique"  ne veut pas dire "Mondialisation"..


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Introduction to the 10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2013 | MIT Technology Review - Innovation America

Introduction to the 10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2013 | MIT Technology Review - Innovation America | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Think of the most frustrating, intractable, or simply annoying problems you can imagine. Now think about what technology is doing to fix them....
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Author Explains What The Future Of The Internet Holds

Author Explains What The Future Of The Internet Holds | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Jared Cohen has been traveling to the Middle East and Africa since he was a child, first to satisfy his "addiction" to travel, and later, as adviser to former Secretaries of State Condelezza Rice and Hillary Clinton, to study how technology impacts...
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Geoengineering: Our Last Hope, or a False Promise?

Geoengineering: Our Last Hope, or a False Promise? | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it

THE concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere recently surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time in three million years. If you are not frightened by this fact, then you are ignoring or denying science.

Relentlessly rising greenhouse-gas emissions, and the fear that the earth might enter a climate emergency from which there would be no return, have prompted many climate scientists to conclude that we urgently need a Plan B: geoengineering.

Geoengineering — the deliberate, large-scale intervention in the climate system to counter global warming or offset some of its effects — may enable humanity to mobilize its technological power to seize control of the planet’s climate system, and regulate it in perpetuity.

 

But is it wise to try to play God with the climate? For all its allure, a geoengineered Plan B may lead us into an impossible morass.

While some proposals, like launching a cloud of mirrors into space to deflect some of the sun’s heat, sound like science fiction, the more serious schemes require no insurmountable technical feats. Two or three leading ones rely on technology that is readily available and could be quickly deployed.

Some approaches, like turning biomass into biochar, a charcoal whose carbon resists breakdown, and painting roofs white to increase their reflectivity and reduce air-conditioning demand, are relatively benign, but would have minimal effect on a global scale. Another prominent scheme, extracting carbon dioxide directly from the air, is harmless in itself, as long as we can find somewhere safe to bury enormous volumes of it for centuries.

But to capture from the air the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by, say, a 1,000-megawatt coal power plant, it would require air-sucking machinery about 30 feet in height and 18 miles in length, according to a study by the American Physical Society, as well as huge collection facilities and a network of equipment to transport and store the waste underground.

 

The idea of building a vast industrial infrastructure to offset the effects of another vast industrial infrastructure (instead of shifting to renewable energy) only highlights our unwillingness to confront the deeper causes of global warming — the power of the fossil-fuel lobby and the reluctance of wealthy consumers to make even small sacrifices.

Even so, greater anxieties arise from those geoengineering technologies designed to intervene in the functioning of the earth system as a whole. They include ocean iron fertilization and sulfate aerosol spraying, each of which now has a scientific-commercial constituency.

 

How confident can we be, even after research and testing, that the chosen technology will work as planned? After all, ocean fertilization — spreading iron slurry across the seas to persuade them to soak up more carbon dioxide — means changing the chemical composition and biological functioning of the oceans. In the process it will interfere with marine ecosystems and affect cloud formation in ways we barely understand.

Enveloping the earth with a layer of sulfate particles would cool the planet by regulating the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface. One group of scientists is urging its deployment over the melting Arctic now.

Plant life, already trying to adapt to a changing climate, would have to deal with reduced sunlight, the basis of photosynthesis. A solar filter made of sulfate particles may be effective at cooling the globe, but its impact on weather systems, including the Indian monsoon on which a billion people depend for their sustenance, is unclear.

 

Some of these uncertainties can be reduced by research. Yet if there is one lesson we have learned from ecology, it is that the more closely we look at an ecosystem the more complex it becomes. Now we are contemplating technologies that would attempt to manipulate the grandest and most complex ecosystem of them all — the planet itself. Sulfate aerosol spraying would change not just the temperature but the ozone layer, global rainfall patterns and the biosphere, too.

 

Spraying sulfate particles, the method most likely to be implemented, is classified as a form of “solar radiation management,” an Orwellian term that some of its advocates have sought to reframe as “climate remediation.”

Yet if the “remedy” were fully deployed to reduce the earth’s temperature, then at least 10 years of global climate observations would be needed to separate out the effects of the solar filter from other causes of climatic variability, according to some scientists.

 

If after five years of filtered sunlight a disaster occurred — a drought in India and Pakistan, for example, a possible effect in one of the modeling studies — we would not know whether it was caused by global warming, the solar filter or natural variability. And if India suffered from the effects of global dimming while the United States enjoyed more clement weather, it would matter a great deal which country had its hand on the global thermostat.

So who would be turning the dial on the earth’s climate? Research is concentrated in the United States, Britain and Germany, though China recently added geoengineering to its research priorities.

Some geoengineering schemes are sufficiently cheap and uncomplicated to be deployed by any midsize nation, or even a billionaire with a messiah complex.

 

We can imagine a situation 30 years hence in which the Chinese Communist Party’s grip on power is threatened by chaotic protests ignited by a devastating drought and famine. If the alternative to losing power were attempting a rapid cooling of the planet through a sulfate aerosol shield, how would it play out? A United States president might publicly condemn the Chinese but privately commit to not shooting down their planes, or to engage in “counter-geoengineering.”

 

Little wonder that military strategists are taking a close interest in geoengineering. Anxious about Western geopolitical hubris, developing nations have begun to argue for a moratorium on experiments until there is agreement on some kind of global governance system.

Engineering the climate is intuitively appealing to a powerful strand of Western technological thought that sees no ethical or other obstacle to total domination of nature. And that is why some conservative think tanks that have for years denied or downplayed the science of climate change suddenly support geoengineering, the solution to a problem they once said did not exist.

 

All of which points to perhaps the greatest risk of research into geoengineering — it will erode the incentive to curb emissions. Think about it: no need to take on powerful fossil-fuel companies, no need to tax gasoline or electricity, no need to change our lifestyles.

 

In the end, how we think about geoengineering depends on how we understand climate disruption. If our failure to cut emissions is a result of the power of corporate interests, the fetish for economic growth and the comfortable conservatism of a consumer society, then resorting to climate engineering allows us to avoid facing up to social dysfunction, at least for as long as it works.

 

So the battle lines are being drawn over the future of the planet. While the Pentagon “weaponeer” and geoengineering enthusiast Lowell Wood, an astrophysicist, has proclaimed, “We’ve engineered every other environment we live in — why not the planet?” a more humble climate scientist, Ronald G. Prinn of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has asked, “How can you engineer a system you don’t understand?”


Via James Keith
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Cid Alves's curator insight, February 7, 5:48 PM

From praying to playing GOD!?!

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Star Trek's Tricorder Becomes Reality With Scanadu's Scout

Star Trek's Tricorder Becomes Reality With Scanadu's Scout | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Scanadu's Scout helps you monitor all aspects your health -- with just a 10-second commitment.
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Soylent - the easy, healthy future of nutrition

Soylent - the easy, healthy future of nutrition | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
What if you never had to worry about food again? Free yourself from the time and money you spend on food today, get healthy, and reduce your environmental impact!
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3D Printer Kit From Cooking Hacks

3D Printer Kit From Cooking Hacks | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Hmmm, the name Cooking Hacks might be one that you would want to keep a keen eye peeled open for, where this open hardware division of Libelium has...

Via Kalani Kirk Hausman, michel verstrepen, Rudolf Kabutz
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Il crée des glaciers artificiels pour parer au réchauffement climatique | Courant Positif

Il crée des glaciers artificiels pour parer au réchauffement climatique | Courant Positif | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it

A 78 ans, Chewang Norphel s’impose comme un héros au Ladakh, une région reculée du nord de l’Inde, confrontée au recul des glaciers et à la raréfaction des ressources en eau, conséquences directes du réchauffement climatique. Cet ingénieur à la retraite a décidé d’agir pour les habitants du « Petit Tibet ». Il imagine un système peu coûteux permettant de créer des glaciers artificiels et de réguler ainsi leur fonte, point essentiel pour le développement économique de cette zone rurale. Une initiative à saluer en cette année internationale de l’eau.

 


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Université de la Terre 2013 - Jacques Attali, Matthieu Ricard "Idées, rêves et engagement : le meilleur est à construire"

"Idées, rêves et engagement : le meilleur est à construire" (débat n°7) Samedi 27 avril 2013 - Salle 1 Débat dirigé par : Yves THREARD Avec : Jacques ATTALI,...

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Impression 3D : Defense Distributed imprime un revolver fonctionnel

Impression 3D : Defense Distributed imprime un revolver fonctionnel | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Ils l’avaient annoncé il y a peu : Defense Distributed a réussi son pari. Dans un reportage de Forbes, la société am...
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Stanford University's Carol Dweck on the Growth Mindset and Education

Stanford University's Carol Dweck on the Growth Mindset and Education | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
"You're so talented!", "You are gifted - a natural!", "You're doing so well in school, you must be really smart!" - children receive these messages (or their negative counterparts), along with many...
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De l’île de Pâques à l’île de Chypre : La transition écologique comme réponse à la crise financière et économique

De l’île de Pâques à l’île de Chypre : La transition écologique comme réponse à la crise financière et économique | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
Contrairement au monde financier, le monde naturel ne prévoit pas de plans de sauvetage. Toute faillite du capital naturel se traduit nécessairement par un effondrement des économies et des civilisations.

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Maison, environnement, robot : visite guidée du monde en 2030

A l'occasion de la Journée mondiale de la Terre, francetv info vous donne un aperçu du monde de demain. Découvrez ce qui vous attend. 

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Share Infographic

Share Infographic | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
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Blog | The Noun Project

Blog | The Noun Project | Managing the Transition | Scoop.it
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