Complex systems and projects
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Complex systems and projects
Inspiring news (engl-fr- de) that help to develop a systemic, mindful, complex adaptive thinking and leadership
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Strategy under uncertainty | McKinsey & Company

Strategy under uncertainty | McKinsey & Company | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
The traditional approach to strategy requires precise predictions and thus often leads executives to underestimate uncertainty. This can be downright dangerous. A four-level framework can help.
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Interesting Four levels of uncertainty

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, September 14, 2016 9:48 AM

Interesting Four levels of residual uncertainty

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The Benefits of Getting Comfortable With Uncertainty

The Benefits of Getting Comfortable With Uncertainty | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
“Wanting and not wanting the same thing at the same time is a baseline condition of human consciousness.”
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The Power of Not Knowing

The Power of Not Knowing | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

When was the last time you said “I don’t know” in a business or organizational context, with the idea that your honesty would actually get you somewhere?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen, Stephen Dale, Lynnette Van Dyke
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Stephen Dale's curator insight, March 20, 2015 7:42 AM

Memories can be considered dormant or stored expressions of energy. Thoughts can lead us in previously unimagined directions. So perhaps ‘knowledge’ is actually the power in not knowing, as well as realising that what we don’t know matters more than what we think we know. It is the practice of constantly becoming ‘knowledgeable’, or, developing the ability to send and receive knowledge, rather than having to own it or store it.


Reading time: 15mins

Graham Ward's curator insight, March 22, 2015 3:34 PM

Great article which begins with a great question: How does what we know get in the way of what we don't know?

Véronique Calvet's curator insight, April 3, 2015 1:48 PM

“How does what we know get in the way of what we don’t know?” Liz Wiseman

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If Greece Embraces Uncertainty, Innovation Will Follow

If Greece Embraces Uncertainty, Innovation Will Follow | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

Countries that score high on uncertainty avoidance score low on innovation (as measured in the innovation union scoreboard of the European Commission) and high on bureaucracy (as measured on the easiness to do business ranking of the World Bank).

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Ignorance, the Ultimate Asset

Ignorance, the Ultimate Asset | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
The economy is stagnating, but there is no broad agreement as to why. Democratic policy hasn’t worked in the last few years, but Republicans governed when the Panic and Great Recession began. Some economists say negative real interest rates inflated the bubble. Others say high interest rates precipitated the crash. Inflation, for sure, is now [...]
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Quote: "To understand the success of modern knowledge economies and why government planning is folly, we must first understand that ignorance truly is bliss."

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Antifragile – Black Box

Antifragile – Black Box | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
  Not only does Taleb link the notions of Failure with Leadership and Management, but he often delves into other adjacent topics that I’ve also found myself meandering down. One of the most pr...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Some good points about unpredictability, data, ignorance...

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Dealing With Complexity in Leadership

Dealing With Complexity in Leadership | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Dealing with work complexity has become a major leadership development issue. And it has ethical implications. As our work becomes more complex, so do our ethical dilemmas.
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Cynefin 101 – An Introduction

This paper is to introduces the Cynefin model and its practices which can be used to address the uncertainty of the modern world. The practices that are introduced can be used to compliment traditional approaches to project, programme and portfolio management. This provides a more comprehensive approach that reflects the needs of management in an ever more uncertain world.

Via yannick grenzinger, Christophe Bredillet
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Very well done - must read to understand complexity and uncertainty as seen through the Cynefin framework

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Aline Choupin's curator insight, July 15, 2014 2:57 AM

Great methodology for decision making

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The four types of incertitude – Tom Vladeck

The four types of incertitude – Tom Vladeck | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

This post was inspired by a recent tweet:

With uncertainty the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined; with risk we know the distribution. http://t.co/rnUtv32YOg

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) March 30, 2014

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 7, 2014 8:24 AM

About risk - uncertainty - ambiguity - ignorance

Miklos Szilagyi's curator insight, April 12, 2014 12:40 PM

Good point... look at the quadrates of outcome/probability and certitude/incertitude...:-))) that is it...

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Antifragile: Benefiting from Life's Ups & Downs

Antifragile: Benefiting from Life's Ups & Downs | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Chaos, disorder, volatility, turmoil, errors and uncertainty: we will run into them, or they will run into us. Why not use them as “allies” in our development of self?
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'If You Can't Measure It, You Can't Manage It': Not True

'If You Can't Measure It, You Can't Manage It': Not True | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

hu

Fifteen years later I still find it weird that I sucked down so much nonsense working in the corporate world, lots of it without even noticing. I sat in workshops and seminars and heard the most patently ridiculous garbage shoveled at me and the other participants, year after year for [...]
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Mickael Ruau's curator insight, February 12, 2014 3:43 AM

We focus on the particles when waves are swelling and crashing all around us.

Great employees and great leaders manage the waves all the day, unmeasured and too often unseen. They manage customer relationships in the moment and over the long term. How do they do that so well, without benefit of yardsticks to guide them? How do they finesse and intuit and consult their way to the brilliant results they achieve, without the reports and tests that slow us down and annoy us in every other professional arena? Thank God, human processes like sticky conversations and the energy in a classroom or a conference room can’t be measured.

Those human waves have to be felt.

Miklos Szilagyi's curator insight, February 13, 2014 3:49 AM

I actually love this...:-))) one of the bullshittiest of all...  The "M" from the SMART... which does not mean that SMART is not a good yardstick-model... it's good to help to structure your thinking process... the same thing for performance appraisal methods... they are good framework... but, please, don't take them too on face value, too seriously...

 

The same thing about all these test-mania in the schools and everywhere... that's the moment for me (excellent article, that's  courage...) to say that the earlier methods, writing and oral (!!!) exams were much more effective, OK, more subjective but at the end of the day, we are human and could be something more subjective than a human being?! Why do we try to hide this, fear of this? And try to robotize it? By that we are just stripping from all these processes  the only interesting part, the "human" element... They are dead seriously objective, only,  they are good for nothing or very very little...

 

Aline Choupin's curator insight, February 24, 2014 9:35 AM

Liz completly nailed it !

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7 Ways Leaders Maintain Their Composure in Difficult Times

7 Ways Leaders Maintain Their Composure in Difficult Times | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Leaders need to show more composure than ever before in the workplace.
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Uncertainty management of projects from the owners’ perspective, with main focus on managing delivered functionality

Philippe Vallat's insight:

The study shows that the projects’ uncertainty management did not have a project owner’s perspective, but was mainly focused on the success factors of the project management. In the quantitative part of the studies it was found that a great majority (91%) of the risk elements in the projects studied were operational risks; i.e. risks mainly concerning the projects’ operational goals. Also, most of the projects’ risk elements were threats (67%)

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Uncertainty by Jonathan Fields – Summary

Uncertainty by Jonathan Fields – Summary | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
This article contains my book notes for Uncertainty by Jonathan Fields (2011). We all suffer from uncertainty and doubt, especially when creating something new. It’s certainly something I have issues with. Uncertainty: Turning Fear and Doubt into Fuel for Brilliance is a […]
Philippe Vallat's insight:

A good summary of this very inspiring book that I recommand

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, September 2, 2016 11:22 AM

A good summary of this inspiring book that I recommand

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How to Stop Overplanning (Even If You’re a Perfectionist)

How to Stop Overplanning (Even If You’re a Perfectionist) | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
When done well, daily and weekly planning rituals can help you travel gracefully through life in a peaceful, intentional manner.
Philippe Vallat's insight:

The title is appealing enough...

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Roger D. Jones, PhD's curator insight, March 21, 2016 11:01 AM

The title is appealing enough...

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How Uncertainty Fuels Anxiety

How Uncertainty Fuels Anxiety | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
People who are less able to tolerate uncertainty worry more.

Via Anne Leong, Philippe Vallat
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Resilient Leadership Navy Seal Style

Resilient Leadership Navy Seal Style | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

Leaders face stress and adversity in large part because, like the goldfish in dirty water, they can't see through their situation. Consequently, the limits set by a company's cultural blind spots, those places where the company is stuck in a rut of decision making and truly can't see the forest for the trees, pile on more stress. The result: Decision-making goes from bad to worse. It can happen to anyone.

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Leadership en zone d’incertitude: l’exemple des Forces Spéciales

Pour tirer pleinement parti des capacités très spécialisées de leurs membres, les forces spéciales ont développé un style de leadership s’éloignant de la relation chef-subalterne, pour se concentrer sur la relation entre le leader et son équipe.
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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, November 11, 2014 9:23 AM

Citation: "A l’instar des commandos, les managers doivent abandonner l’illusion du contrôle pour assumer l’incertitude, accepter de lâcher prise et de faire confiance à leurs équipes, développer des stratégies d’adaptation, et apprendre à improviser en situation."

Anne Landreat's curator insight, November 11, 2014 12:48 PM
A l’instar des commandos, les managers doivent abandonner l’illusion du contrôle pour assumer l’incertitude, accepter de lâcher prise et de faire confiance à leurs équipes, développer des stratégies d’adaptation, et apprendre à improviser en situation.
3- Les exigences du leadership commandoDans une opération commando, la prise de décision engage la vie du groupe. le succès de l’équipe repose sur la performance collective, qui dépasse la somme des efforts de chacun. Mais rien ne peut se produire sans un chef préparé et respecté par les membres de son équipe. Animé d’une véritable culture stratégique, et d’une forte capacité de dialogue, le chef d’équipe est capable de prendre du recul y compris lorsqu’il est sous pression. A l’aise dans les situations ambigües, c’est un manager rompu à l’art du « décryptage » des signaux faibles précurseurs des menaces et des crises.

 

4- Les leçons de la culture commandoLa culture commando met l’accent sur la créativité et l’esprit d’innovation en situation de stress, ainsi que sur le leadership et la résolution de problèmes en situation d’incertitude.
En cela elle constitue une source d’inspiration et un exemple pour des managers confrontés à la pression à l’incertitude et à la crise.
Comme le souligne très justement Daniel Hervouët (*), l’expérience de l’exercice du leadership chez les commandos constitue une sorte d’élixir obtenu à haute pression. Ce qui a été mis au point dans des conditions plus dures peut être ensuite mis en œuvre dans des conditions normales, car les tests en ont validé le contenu.

 


Stéphane RENAUD's curator insight, November 12, 2014 6:10 AM

En situation extrême ou dans le management quotidien, la confiance et l'intelligence collective sont le binôme de choc !

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La décision dans un monde VICA (1/2)

La décision dans un monde VICA (1/2) | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

Automne 1941. L’amiral américain Husband E. Kimmel,  commandant en chef de la flotte du Pacifique, a réuni son état-major. Les nouvelles sont mauvaises : la flotte japonaise a disparu et nul ne connaît ses intentions. Sont-elles belliqueuses ? Faut-il mobiliser l’armée des Etats-Unis qui ne sont pas encore en guerre ? Confusion, incertitudes, enjeux majeurs - la base de décision de l’Amiral n’est pas très confortable, aussi exhorte-t-il son état-major à « craquer le code radio des japonais » pour enfin savoir, afin qu’il puisse prendre « la meilleure des décisions ».

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, October 27, 2014 9:32 AM

Premier de 2 articles sur la décision dans l'incertitude, publiés dans le Bulletin de la Société Fribourgeoise des Officiers.

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Edgar Morin : « La pensée complexe aide à affronter l'erreur, l'illusion, l'incertitude et le risque »

Edgar Morin : « La pensée complexe aide à affronter l'erreur, l'illusion, l'incertitude et le risque » | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Qu'est-ce que la pensée complexe ? D'abord, lorsque les gens disent « c'est complexe », en fait, ils veulent dire « je suis incapable de...

Via Didier Hauvette, Authentis Formations
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Didier Hauvette's curator insight, June 24, 2014 9:09 AM

Edgar Morin nous invite à pratiquer la pensée complexe et à nous rappeler que tout est lié, notamment émotions et connaissance

 

Authentis Formations's curator insight, July 30, 2014 11:51 AM

La pensée complexe pour éviter de tomber dans le simplisme ou le compliqué... Tout est relié... 

Stéphane NEREAU's curator insight, July 31, 2014 8:56 AM

add your insight...

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Why Your Boss May Be Ineffective or Dysfunctional

Why Your Boss May Be Ineffective or Dysfunctional | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
New capacities are needed for effective, positive management today's workplaces.
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Leaders ask "How can I prepare for what I can't prepare for?"

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Poor Governance creates complexity

Poor Governance creates complexity | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Good governance reduces ambiguity and complexity.
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Back to the roots! the main and central mission of management is: reduce ambiguity and uncertainty. How? by deciding!

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Don't Be An Expert (But if Unavoidable, Be a Fox, and Use Models)

Don't Be An Expert (But if Unavoidable, Be a Fox, and Use Models) | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
“The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” ~ Archilochus In 2005, Philip Tetlock published a widely acclaimed book, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Kn...
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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, February 16, 2014 3:12 PM

Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be. The less successful forecasters tended to have one big, beautiful idea that they loved to stretch, sometimes to the breaking point. They tended to be articulate and very persuasive as to why their idea explained everything… they are more entertaining… The media loves them… Experts in demand were more overconfident than their colleagues who eked out existences far from the limelight…”

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The Pain of Creating

In the process of contributing to this blog, I am learning that writing is not such an easy task.

Philippe Vallat's insight:

"To create requires the creator to immerse him- or herself in the chaos and messiness of creating. To create one must submerge him- or herself in their own being, to feel the confusion, the angst, and the darkness that serves as the basis of this new thing that he or she is generating. It is this internal wrestling that enables the artist to see the world from a more emotional, spiritual, and psychological perspective."

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, February 8, 2014 3:08 AM

"To create requires the creator to immerse him- or herself in the chaos and messiness of creating. To create one must submerge him- or herself in their own being, to feel the confusion, the angst, and the darkness that serves as the basis of this new thing that he or she is generating. It is this internal wrestling that enables the artist to see the world from a more emotional, spiritual, and psychological perspective."

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Better Human Understanding, Not Big Data, Is the Future of Business

Better Human Understanding, Not Big Data, Is the Future of Business | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
"The idea that business is strictly a numbers affair has always struck me as preposterous. For one thing, I’ve never been particularly good at numbers, but I think I’ve done a reasonable job with feelings.
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Pour remettre l'église au milieu du village...

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