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Inspiring news (engl-fr- de) that help to develop a systemic, mindfull, complex adaptive leadership
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Ignorance, the Ultimate Asset

Ignorance, the Ultimate Asset | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
The economy is stagnating, but there is no broad agreement as to why. Democratic policy hasn’t worked in the last few years, but Republicans governed when the Panic and Great Recession began. Some economists say negative real interest rates inflated the bubble. Others say high interest rates precipitated the crash. Inflation, for sure, is now [...]
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Quote: "To understand the success of modern knowledge economies and why government planning is folly, we must first understand that ignorance truly is bliss."

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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Black swans, risks and crisis
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The four types of incertitude – Tom Vladeck

The four types of incertitude – Tom Vladeck | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

This post was inspired by a recent tweet:

With uncertainty the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined; with risk we know the distribution. http://t.co/rnUtv32YOg

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) March 30, 2014

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 7, 2014 8:24 AM

About risk - uncertainty - ambiguity - ignorance

Miklos Szilagyi's curator insight, April 12, 2014 12:40 PM

Good point... look at the quadrates of outcome/probability and certitude/incertitude...:-))) that is it...

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Mindful Decision Making
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Don't Be An Expert (But if Unavoidable, Be a Fox, and Use Models)

Don't Be An Expert (But if Unavoidable, Be a Fox, and Use Models) | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
“The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” ~ Archilochus In 2005, Philip Tetlock published a widely acclaimed book, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Kn...
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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, February 16, 2014 3:12 PM

Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be. The less successful forecasters tended to have one big, beautiful idea that they loved to stretch, sometimes to the breaking point. They tended to be articulate and very persuasive as to why their idea explained everything… they are more entertaining… The media loves them… Experts in demand were more overconfident than their colleagues who eked out existences far from the limelight…”

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Black swans, risks and crisis
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Antifragile – Black Box

Antifragile – Black Box | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
  Not only does Taleb link the notions of Failure with Leadership and Management, but he often delves into other adjacent topics that I’ve also found myself meandering down. One of the most pr...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Some good points about unpredictability, data, ignorance...

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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Entretiens Professionnels
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L’ignorance est-elle l’arme absolue du leadership dans la complexité ?

L’ignorance est-elle l’arme absolue du leadership dans la complexité ? | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

'Il y a bien longtemps Socrate disait : “La seule chose que je sais, c’est que je ne sais rien”. Dans ce cadre de référence, je vous invite à lire un billet de Philippe Vallat sur le thème de l’ignorance au service de la gestion de la complexité :..'


Via Pascale_Masson
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Merci à @olivierzara pour la reprise et la prolongation de ma réflexion sur l'ignorance dans les systèmes complexes

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Nathalie Olivier's curator insight, March 24, 2014 4:52 AM

Accepter que l'on ne sait pas tout, loin de là...