Complex systems a...
Follow
Find tag "biases"
15.2K views | +0 today
Complex systems and projects
Inspiring news (engl-fr- de) that help to develop a systemic, mindfull, complex adaptive leadership
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Control and Growth – Tipping the Balance in a ‘VUCA’ World

Natural disasters, technological disruptions, transitory advantages, fractured markets, multifarious competitors, increasingly demanding customers and fickle consumers. Thanks to the military, we have a useful descriptor for the conditions and environment these drivers create; ‘VUCA’ – volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity… a combination of the magnitude and speed of change, the lack of predictability and prospect of surprise, the multitude of forces and confounding issues, and the lack of ‘one right answer’ or single course of action.

more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Bounded Rationality and Beyond
Scoop.it!

Factors that Influence Decision Making, Heuristics Used, and Decision Outcomes

Several factors influence decision making. These factors, including past experience, cognitive biases, age and individual differences, belief in personal relevance, and an escalation of commitment, influence what choices people make. Understanding the factors that influence decision making process is important to understanding what decisions are made. That is, the factors that influence the process may impact the outcomes.


Via Alessandro Cerboni
more...
Eli Levine's curator insight, May 13, 2014 9:17 AM

Indeed, there are many quirks and idiosynchrises that go into our day to day and long term decision making.  I wish there was a way to actually correct our "vision" and decision making tools, such that we are clairvoyent and have the energy and the actual will to do positive things for ourselves and the rest of the world that we're in.  But, then again, would humanity accept such a correction, or accept the people who would make such a correction?

 

I doubt it.

 

And thus, we will remain as the semi-evolved group of monkeys that we actually are.

 

Think about it.

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from CASR3PM
Scoop.it!

Over-optimism in government projects

Over-optimism in government projects | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

Optimism bias in public sector projects is not a new phenomenon. But it is one that persists, frequently undermining projects’ value for money as time and cost are under estimated and benefits over estimated. This report uses our back catalogue to illustrate the consequences of over optimism. In doing so, we have identified some contributory factors – such as project complexity and an organisation’s culture of challenge.

 

 


Via Christophe Bredillet
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Very important finding:

"Our back catalogue shows that, in planning projects, government does not always take time to understand the complexity and, as a result, over-estimates its ability to deal with the challenges. Too often, government commits to a ‘solution’ without fully understanding the context and exploring alternative options to determine which solution matches the real need."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Be suspicious of stories

Be suspicious of stories | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

 Like all of us, economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But in this intriguing talk, he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives -- and our messy, complicated irrational world -- in terms of a simple narrative.
(Filmed at TEDxMidAtlantic.)

Philippe Vallat's insight:

About stories, mental laziness, cognitive biases, manipulation

more...
Pierre Gauthier's curator insight, July 15, 2014 9:46 AM

Anyone who practices mindfulness is very intimately familiar with "the storyteller". What Tyler Cowan talks about in the excellent TEDx talk could be quite upsetting to some people who haven't been deep in their practice. Very good! 

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Mindful Decision Making
Scoop.it!

Don't Be An Expert (But if Unavoidable, Be a Fox, and Use Models)

Don't Be An Expert (But if Unavoidable, Be a Fox, and Use Models) | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
“The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” ~ Archilochus In 2005, Philip Tetlock published a widely acclaimed book, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Kn...
more...
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, February 16, 2014 3:12 PM

Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be. The less successful forecasters tended to have one big, beautiful idea that they loved to stretch, sometimes to the breaking point. They tended to be articulate and very persuasive as to why their idea explained everything… they are more entertaining… The media loves them… Experts in demand were more overconfident than their colleagues who eked out existences far from the limelight…”