In the most part my expectations are that 2013 will be much like 2012 but with different risks in play. 2012 was marked by the ECB’s emergency programs that provided lender of last resort function to the Eurozone banking system which in turn supported sovereign governments. Since then the EU and the ECB have worked together to provide stability mechanism for governments including the yet to be activated OMT. There is no doubt that this combined action has significantly reduce “convertibility” and sovereign risk from the Eurozone but that isn’t the whole story.
In the past I've said that if there were only one piece of economic data I could have, it would be housing permits. They are a very reliable long leading indicator for the economy, not just in the post WW2 period, but in the Roaring Twneties and Great Depression as well.
In one sentence, during 2013, I expect imbalances to grow. These imbalances are theUS fiscal and trade deficits, the fiscal deficits of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the unemployment rate of the EMU thanks to a stronger Euro. A stronger Euro is the consequence of capital inflows driven by the elimination of jump-to-default risk in EMU sovereign debt. Below is a drawing I made to help visualize these concepts:
Because in a world in which markets no longer are affected by fundamentals, and reflect nothing more than what politicians (and their Wall Street lobbies) believe the "fair value" of risk assets should be, it is likely that any fat-tail events...
Real exports from the big-3 in Asia (ex-China, ex-Japan) have picked up momentum over the past few months, driven presumably by robust US consumer demand. Post the fiscal cliff agreement, the CapEx rebound TMM have been talking about for a while should provide further gains here as pent up demand is released (though, admittedly, the debt ceiling deadline next month may postpone some of this).
Each January, 24/7 Wall St. forecasts the publicly traded U.S. companies that will have the highest profits in the year ahead. This year, Apple almost certainly will keep first place, well ahead of number two Exxon, as the most profitable corporation in America. It already passed the oil giant in market capitalization. However, while the market appears to anticipate continued rapid growth from Apple, its prospects have dimmed somewhat. After reaching all-time highs last year, Apple’s stock advance has stopped and shares have sold off recently.
In this series of articles called "Entering Into 2013", so far I've expressed my negativity towards the US equity market and as well as expressed my outright favouritism towards the Precious Metals sector as a long term investor - not just for 2013, but further along as the secular commodity bull matures. Let us now turn our attention to all commodities and not just the precious type. Once again, as stated previously, I will leave the fundamentals out of the current article, as they have been discussed many times in previous posts.
MM have often commented on the PIN (Price is News) function of markets and over the past year that has normally been applied to the self-feeding frenzies of downside moves, where the likes of Portuguese 10yr went to 12% and Spain went on its hikes up 7% mountain. Today we are thinking that the ratio of real news to Price is News on some of the more popular bullish trends is showing similar traits.
Brazil’s current account remained relatively stable in 2012, with a deficit of around 2.4% of GDP, slightly higher than the 2011 deficit of 2.1% of GDP. The CAD was fully funded by FDI, which summed US$68 billion (3% of GDP), while portfolio flows remained anemic at 0.4% of GDP. These dynamics prevailed throughout 2012, so far helping dismiss concerns regarding the external balances: The deficit is
[This post originally appeared on Seeking Alpha last week. I enjoy a wide following there, and I appreciate the opportunity to participate in their annual series. As I note at the beginning of the interview, this is a very valuable...
While there is a much lower likelihood of disorderly events in the euro zone, there are still significant obstacles to deeper integration, as well as country-specific economic and political vulnerabilities. The biggest obstacle to the formation of a banking, fiscal, economic and political union is that Germany is pushing back against the time line for action, with the initial skirmish on ECB supervision of euro zone banks. This backpedaling reflects deep German skepticism on whether the resolution of the eurozone crisis requires a move toward greater union. Without a more credible commitment to austerity and reforms from euro zone periphery
Credit Suisse is out with its outlook for semiconductors in 2013. The report sounds great at first when you hear “Irresistible Cyclical Bottom,” but then you have to realize that it is followed by the phrase “Immutable Slowing Consumer.” Credit Suisse is making some changes to its semiconductor universe. While some calls are cautious, the overall trend here is positive for long-term investors who are trying to find bargains (assuming Credit Suisse is right, of course).
Sharing your scoops to your social media accounts is a must to distribute your curated content. Not only will it drive traffic and leads through your content, but it will help show your expertise with your followers.
How to integrate my topics' content to my website?
Integrating your curated content to your website or blog will allow you to increase your website visitors’ engagement, boost SEO and acquire new visitors. By redirecting your social media traffic to your website, Scoop.it will also help you generate more qualified traffic and leads from your curation work.
Distributing your curated content through a newsletter is a great way to nurture and engage your email subscribers will developing your traffic and visibility.
Creating engaging newsletters with your curated content is really easy.