Looking Ahead To 2013
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Housing to (finally) be driver of economic growth in '13

Housing to (finally) be driver of economic growth in '13 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
Economists see the current rebound in housing continuing throughout this year, helping to lift the economy out of its slow-growth doldrums.
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Opinion: ANZ NZ's economics team look at key themes for 2013; Here's theme three - sovereign risk, why it matters for NZ | interest.co.nz

Over the next four business days we are continuing the detailed review by ANZ NZ's economics team of six key themes for 2013. The first one is here », the second one is here »

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Europe in 2013 | | MacroBusiness

Europe in 2013 | | MacroBusiness | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

In the most part my expectations are that 2013 will be much like 2012 but with different risks in play. 2012 was marked by the ECB’s emergency programs that provided lender of last resort function to the Eurozone banking system which in turn supported sovereign governments. Since then the EU and the ECB have worked together to provide stability mechanism for governments including the yet to be activated OMT. There is no doubt that this combined action has significantly reduce “convertibility” and sovereign risk from the Eurozone but that isn’t the whole story.

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The Bonddad Blog: Why housing permits keep me optimistic about 2013

The Bonddad Blog: Why housing permits keep me optimistic about 2013 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

In the past I've said that if there were only one piece of economic data I could have, it would be housing permits. They are a very reliable long leading indicator for the economy, not just in the post WW2 period, but in the Roaring Twneties and Great Depression as well.

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Davos Economists Not Optimistic About 2013 Economic Recovery

Davos Economists Not Optimistic About 2013 Economic Recovery | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

The World Economic Forum in Davos will give economists a chance to flog their views of the 2013 recovery, and apparently they will not be optimistic.

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After A Blowout Fourth Quarter, 2013 May Be The Year That eBay Invades Retail

After A Blowout Fourth Quarter, 2013 May Be The Year That eBay Invades Retail | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
PayPal Mobile is booming.
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A view from the Trenches » An analytic framework for 2013

A view from the Trenches »  An analytic framework for 2013 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

In one sentence, during 2013, I expect imbalances to grow. These imbalances are theUS fiscal and trade deficits, the fiscal deficits of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the unemployment rate of the EMU thanks to a stronger Euro. A stronger Euro is the consequence of capital inflows driven by the elimination of jump-to-default risk in EMU sovereign debt. Below is a drawing I made to help visualize these concepts:

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These Will Be The Hottest Neighborhoods In America In 2013

These Will Be The Hottest Neighborhoods In America In 2013 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
Prices are soaring.
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CORELOGIC: Home Prices Will Jump 6% In 2013

CORELOGIC: Home Prices Will Jump 6% In 2013 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
CoreLogic's housing outlook for 2013 which projects that home prices will increase 6 percent.
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The Geopolitical Hotspots Of 2013 | Zero Hedge

The Geopolitical Hotspots Of 2013 | Zero Hedge | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
Because in a world in which markets no longer are affected by fundamentals, and reflect nothing more than what politicians (and their Wall Street lobbies) believe the "fair value" of risk assets should be, it is likely that any fat-tail events...
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Macro Man: 2013 Non-Predictions No. 3 & No. 4

Macro Man: 2013 Non-Predictions No. 3 & No. 4 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

Real exports from the big-3 in Asia (ex-China, ex-Japan) have picked up momentum over the past few months, driven presumably by robust US consumer demand. Post the fiscal cliff agreement, the CapEx rebound TMM have been talking about for a while should provide further gains here as pent up demand is released (though, admittedly, the debt ceiling deadline next month may postpone some of this).

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2013’s Most Profitable Companies

2013’s Most Profitable Companies | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

Each January, 24/7 Wall St. forecasts the publicly traded U.S. companies that will have the highest profits in the year ahead. This year, Apple almost certainly will keep first place, well ahead of number two Exxon, as the most profitable corporation in America. It already passed the oil giant in market capitalization. However, while the market appears to anticipate continued rapid growth from Apple, its prospects have dimmed somewhat. After reaching all-time highs last year, Apple’s stock advance has stopped and shares have sold off recently.


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Short Side Of Long: Entering Into 2013 - Part 4

Short Side Of Long: Entering Into 2013 - Part 4 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
In this series of articles called "Entering Into 2013", so far I've expressed my negativity towards the US equity market and as well as expressed my outright favouritism towards the Precious Metals sector as a long term investor - not just for 2013, but further along as the secular commodity bull matures. Let us now turn our attention to all commodities and not just the precious type. Once again, as stated previously, I will leave the fundamentals out of the current article, as they have been discussed many times in previous posts.
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Macro Man: Non-Predictions 5 to 12

MM have often commented on the PIN (Price is News) function of markets and over the past year that has normally been applied to the self-feeding frenzies of downside moves, where the likes of Portuguese 10yr went to 12% and Spain went on its hikes up 7% mountain. Today we are thinking that the ratio of real news to Price is News on some of the more popular bullish trends is showing similar traits.

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EconoMonitor : RGE Analysts » Can Portfolio Flows Play a Dual Role in Brazil in 2013?

EconoMonitor : RGE Analysts » Can Portfolio Flows Play a Dual Role in Brazil in 2013? | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

Brazil’s current account remained relatively stable in 2012, with a deficit of around 2.4% of GDP, slightly higher than the 2011 deficit of 2.1% of GDP. The CAD was fully funded by FDI, which summed US$68 billion (3% of GDP), while portfolio flows remained anemic at 0.4% of GDP. These dynamics prevailed throughout 2012, so far helping dismiss concerns regarding the external balances: The deficit is

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It's Time To Take A Look At Who Wall Street Will Be Hiring In 2013

It's Time To Take A Look At Who Wall Street Will Be Hiring In 2013 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
STATS!
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Here's What America's Biggest Companies Are Already Telling Us About The Economy In 2013

Here's What America's Biggest Companies Are Already Telling Us About The Economy In 2013 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
A series of insights from 4Q earnings calls.
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BlackRock: The 2013 Macro View - PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

BlackRock: The 2013 Macro View - PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

I don’t totally agree here, but this is is a nice macro overview of the current landscape via BlackRock:

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A Dash of Insight: 2013 Investment Preview

A Dash of Insight: 2013 Investment Preview | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
[This post originally appeared on Seeking Alpha last week. I enjoy a wide following there, and I appreciate the opportunity to participate in their annual series. As I note at the beginning of the interview, this is a very valuable...
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Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor » The Year Ahead in the Eurozone: Lower Risks, Same Problems

While there is a much lower likelihood of disorderly events in the euro zone, there are still significant obstacles to deeper integration, as well as country-specific economic and political vulnerabilities. The biggest obstacle to the formation of a banking, fiscal, economic and political union is that Germany is pushing back against the time line for action, with the initial skirmish on ECB supervision of euro zone banks. This backpedaling reflects deep German skepticism on whether the resolution of the eurozone crisis requires a move toward greater union. Without a more credible commitment to austerity and reforms from euro zone periphery 

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BofA: 2013 Could Bring The Last Great Stock Buying Opportunity For Years To Come

BofA: 2013 Could Bring The Last Great Stock Buying Opportunity For Years To Come | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
History says stocks are about to go up, up, and away.
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Some EM Sector ETFs Could Soar in 2013 - Insider Monkey

Some EM Sector ETFs Could Soar in 2013 - Insider Monkey | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it

Amidst all the ebullience, emerging markets sector ETFs can go overlooked. Ignoring these sector funds in 2013 could prove to be a mistake because some have already outperformed traditional diversified and country-specific developing markets ETFs. With that in mind, consider the following ETFs as the among the best bets at sector level in the developing world this year.


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Analyst Sees Irresistible Cyclical Bottom in Semiconductors in 2013, with Caveats

Analyst Sees Irresistible Cyclical Bottom in Semiconductors in 2013, with Caveats | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
Credit Suisse is out with its outlook for semiconductors in 2013. The report sounds great at first when you hear “Irresistible Cyclical Bottom,” but then you have to realize that it is followed by the phrase “Immutable Slowing Consumer.” Credit Suisse is making some changes to its semiconductor universe. While some calls are cautious, the overall trend here is positive for long-term investors who are trying to find bargains (assuming Credit Suisse is right, of course).
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The 15 Most Important Security Startups Of 2013

The 15 Most Important Security Startups Of 2013 | Looking Ahead To 2013 | Scoop.it
Meet the new crop of heroes of the cyberworld.
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