No, says a new study of mutual-fund managers.
There are experts, and then there's everybody else. In finance, experts have studied the subject and follow the markets closely, so you'd expect that they'd be superior at betting on the stock market as well as on other financial matters, right? Well, perhaps not so much. As the psychologist Philip Tetlock—who did a20-year study on the subject—famously said: Experts are poorer at predictions than dart-throwing monkeys.