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Don't Be An Expert (But if Unavoidable, Be a Fox, and Use Models)

Don't Be An Expert (But if Unavoidable, Be a Fox, and Use Models) | hokusai | Scoop.it
“The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” ~ Archilochus In 2005, Philip Tetlock published a widely acclaimed book, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Kn...

Via Philippe Vallat
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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, February 16, 2014 3:12 PM

Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be. The less successful forecasters tended to have one big, beautiful idea that they loved to stretch, sometimes to the breaking point. They tended to be articulate and very persuasive as to why their idea explained everything… they are more entertaining… The media loves them… Experts in demand were more overconfident than their colleagues who eked out existences far from the limelight…”

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We need to talk about TED

We need to talk about TED | hokusai | Scoop.it

Benjamin Bratton: Science, philosophy and technology run on the model of American Idol – as embodied by TED talks – is a recipe for civilisational disaster


Via Bernard Ryefield
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