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5 Unexpected Factors That Change How We Forecast The Future

5 Unexpected Factors That Change How We Forecast The Future | Harvard Trends | Scoop.it
Editor’s NoteThis post is part of Co.Exist’s Futurist Forum, a series of articles by some of the world’s leading futurists about what the world will look like in the near and distant future, and how you can improve how you navigate future scenarios...
Pedro Barbosa's insight:

The Future. This is what we are focus on. The rest is bullshit ;)

 

Pedro Barbosa | www.pbarbosa.com | www.harvardtrends.com

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Rescooped by Pedro Barbosa from Change Leadership Watch
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J.C. Penny update: Too Much Change, Too Fast? Or Customer Connection failure?

J.C. Penny update:  Too Much Change, Too Fast? Or Customer Connection failure? | Harvard Trends | Scoop.it

It is less about how fast CEOs are willing to move than how quickly their most reliable customers are prepared to change.

   

Ron Johnson's bold overhaul of the sagging American retailing icon J.C. Penny went too far too fast.

 

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Failure simply means leadership went too fast or didn't go fast enough. That's rationalization, not insight.

 

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 When "reckless" moves succeed, they're retrospectively rebranded as "bold." When "timidity" triumphs, it's celebrated as "patient" and "safe."

  

Failure simply means leadership went too fast or didn't go fast enough. That's rationalization, not insight.

  

How fast are your customers willing to change?

 

Your own rate of change is determined less by the quality or price/performance of your offerings than the measurable readiness of your customers and clients.

  

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Electrolux's  70% rule helps identify and clarify their customers' readiness for change.

 

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Their internal readiness matters more than yours. Their inertia matters more than your momentum.

  

Electrolux, has implemented a new "70% rule" for testing its new product innovations to make sure it's not getting too far ahead or falling too quickly behind either its customers or competitors.

 

Electrolux CEO Keith McLoughlin has declared that new product prototypes have to enjoy at least a 70% customer preference rate in blind competition with best-selling rival products. "

 

Speed to market" isn't what's driving the change.

 

The goal is assuring that the firm's ability to innovate is effectively aligned with the customers' willingness to value them. The 70% rule helps identify and clarify their customers' readiness for change.


Via Deb Nystrom, REVELN Consulting
Deb Nystrom, REVELN Consulting's curator insight, December 26, 2012 3:07 PM

It's alluring, thinking it is about getting the amount of change just right.  Wrong focus.  It is about where and who the customers area, and how adaptable and ready they are for change.


On the individual level, it's also about preferences for change.  The assessment tool, iWam (the Inventory for Work Attitude and Motivation) has a "clock" feature that shows individual preferences for change.  

As goes the individual, probably so goes the customer culture, witness the articles overview of the tech market and the appliances market.  ~ D