Grain du Coteau : News ( corn maize ethanol DDG soybean soymeal wheat livestock beef pigs canadian dollar)

Increasing confidence in Brazil's safrinha corn harvest honed further expectations of a corn price decline, fuelling forecasts of "aggressive" competition with the US for share of the world exports.

Extended rains in Brazil have underpinned expectations that Brazil's safrinha, or so-called second, crop of corn will exceed the main harvest, taking total production, on Australia & New Zealand Bank estimates, "close to 80m tonnes for the first time".

Conab, the Brazilian crop bureau, estimates the crop at 78.0m tonnes, with the US Department of Agriculture foreseeing a 76.0m-tonne crop.

Parana, one of the two main safrinha corn states, is due for showers this week, according to weather service MDA, signalling a further delay in the start of the dry season which can cause large setbacks to safrinha corn production, making the crop, typically planted on land cleared by the soybean harvest, a risky proposition.

A dry week in the Midwest will likely be reflected in substantial, probably record-high, weekly planting progress report when those data are released this afternoon.   That prospect has new crop corn futures trading near $5.15/bu. today and only four cents higher than the December contract’s lifetime low of $5.11/bu. set on June 15, 2012.  That, of course, was about the time that last summer’s heat and lack of rainfall began to be a clear problem and prompted December ’13 futures to go above $6.60/bu. by early September.  Should good growing conditions prevail, $5/bu. corn will be high at harvest time.

Trimming Feed Costs

In spite of the corn and soybean meal price declines, my model still shows no profitable months for Iowa farrow-to-finish operations this year (Figure 1).  The model is, of course, built on Iowa State University’s (ISU) Estimated Costs and Returns series and, thus, assumes the production parameters of that series are accurate.  Feedback from a number of sources indicates that the ISU costs may be about $5/cwt. higher than the costs of the most efficient producers at this time, so there may be some farms that will turn small profits this summer.

New crop corn, with a bit of help from wet weather, resists pressure caused by a record pace of US sowings. Old crop soybeans hit an eight-month high

There was a bit of a whistling sound early on on grain markets on Tuesday, as investors withdrew risk premium from new crop lots pumped in when planting was record slow.

That was not a surprise, given the extent of the plantings that US farmers managed last week, in seeding 43% of their corn crop in a week, a record, to get sowing back nearly to the average pace.

The surprise was that the whistling stopped long before the close, as investors began to return a little air into new crop futures.

November soybeans recovered half their earlier losses to end but 0.3% down at $12.20 ¾ a bushel in Chicago.

December corn, having come within an ace of a two-year low, recovered all its losses to end flat at $5.20 ¼ a bushel.

Scrambling processors

OK, November soybeans had the strength of old-crop contracts to support them, lifted by concerns about the rate of US exports of the oilseed and soymeal, at a time when users are worried whether there is enough of the oilseed to go around.

"The July soybean contract continues to be out on an island with substantial strength as processors scrambles to obtain soybeans for crushing to fill soymeal export contracts," Darrell Holaday at Country Futures said, in a theme explored more fullyhere.

And this when Argentine dockworkers, in the main grains port of Rosario, are on industrial action over wages "and with no signal when the strike is going to end", Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien said. (Argentina is the top exporter of soymeal, and a major soybean shipper too.)

Le dollar américain se renforce et le huard en pâtit. La devise canadienne poursuit sa glissade et passe sous les 97 cents américains mardi matin.

Vers 10h30, un dollar canadien s’échange à 96,88 cents américains, en baisse de 0,5%.

Le huard a fléchi de 2,8 % depuis son récent sommet de 99,68 cents américains du 9 mai dernier. Le huard se retrouve ainsi à son plus bas depuis le 7 mars.

La devise américaine prend de la vigueur tandis que les négociateurs anticipent une diminution des interventions de la Réserve fédérale américaine pour stimuler l’économie.

Par ailleurs, les matières premières faiblissent mardi. L’once d’or perd 21,70 $ US à 1362 $ US. L’argent se replie de 1,85%, tandis que le platine perd 2,7 %. Les métaux industriels affichent pour leur part des gains.

Les récentes données économiques dévoilées au Canada, dont celles qui ont montré que les prix à la consommation ont reculé de 0,4 % en avril, signalent que le nouveau patron de la Banque du Canada, Stephen Poloz, pourrait décider d’abaisser les taux d’intérêt.

Farm Industry News got some insights from Monsanto’s Hugh Grant, chairman and chief executive officer and Pierre Courduroux, senior vice president and chief financial officer in this Q&A session.

Brazil's top appeals court Thursday reiterated its ruling that Monsanto's patent on first-generation RoundUp Ready soybeans expired in September 2010 and the U.S. biotech giant had been charging royalties illegally for over two years.

The unanimous decision puts another dent in Monsanto's claim that it has the right to charge royalties in Brazil until 2014, in line with the rest of the world.

Monsanto will appeal the ruling at Brazil's appeals court and also at the Supreme Court, the St. Louis-based company said in a statement, adding that it remained 'confident in its rights and the validity of its RR1 soybean patent until 2014.'

But farmer representatives said the appeals court justices' decision leaves Monsanto's position in tatters.

"The Supreme Appeals Court put a full stop to Monsanto's decision to insist in not following the law," said Ricardo Tomczyk, vice-president of the Mato Grosso Soybean and Corn Producers Association (APROSOJA-MT).

Farmers and Monsanto have been fighting over the expiry of the RR1 patent for a number of years. Following a series of legal reverses, in February Monsanto suspended royalties on RR1 until a final legal decision was reached.

APROSOJA is seeking that Monsanto repay royalty payments made between 2010 and 2013 at double the initial value.

États-Unis : Une tornade d'environ trois kilomètres de diamètre a rasé des dizaines d'édifices près d'Oklahoma City

Wheat prices fall to a one-year low in Paris, and multi-month lows in London, depressed by improved crop condition and a rash of unexpected supplies

Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply beginning in July 2012 as U.S. drought conditions unfolded. According to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good, it was generally expected that prices would follow the pattern experienced in other “short-crop” years, with prices peaking near harvest and returning to pre-drought levels later in the marketing year.  That pattern has generally unfolded with some differences between corn and soybeans and between old-crop and new-crop prices.

“For old-crop corn prices, July 2013 futures peaked at $8.24 on August 10, 2012, nearly $3.00 above the June 2012 low,” Good said. “That contract is currently trading near $6.50, well below the peak, but still above the pre-drought level. Due to an inverted price structure, spot-cash prices have been above July futures in much of the Corn Belt since January 2013, and that strong basis continues. 

Diverse weather across the Northern Hemisphere is bringing significant uncertainty to the 2013 Q2 fertiliser markets, according to a new report from Rabobank.

The huge planting push by US growers has eased dramatically Midwest crop concerns. But fears remain alive in the far north and south of the country

'Unlikely to get intended corn planted'

Fear of North Dakota acreage loss is being raised in the corn market too, given that its farmers still had 39% to plant as of Sunday, even after a huge effort last week, and with insurance deadlines approaching, on May 25 and May 31.

"I hear reports that portions of North Dakota are unlikely to get intended corn planted by May 25 prevent plant date which could swing 500,000 acres or more from corn to soybeans," said Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien, the Chicago-based broker.

While the North Dakota corn planting pace, in terms of the percentage of sowings completed, is only a little behind the average for 2008-12, the comparison is skewed by the huge increase in the popularity of the grain in the state.

 North Dakota farmers intend to sow 4.1m acres of corn this year, up 84% in two years.

La tornade est un phénomène météorologique d'une rare violence. Ce tourbillon de 50 à 200 mètres de diamètre agit comme un immense aspirateur, pulvérisant tout sur son passage. De courte durée, il est accompagné de vents violents, et sa trajectoire est imprévisible.

Les conditions propices aux tornadesLes tornades se développent en général sur des terrains plats et non accidentés. Le plus souvent, elles naissent en après-midi ou en début de soirée.. Il faut une journée chaude et très humide. À l'arrivée d'un front froid, la chaleur et l'humidité montent dans le ciel et forment un énorme nuage appelé cumulonimbus, qui peut faire 10 km de haut.

L'orage éclate. Parfois, de forts vents d'altitude se déchaînent et entraînent la formation d'un tourbillon de nuages et de poussières, en forme d'entonnoir renversé. La tornade émerge du nuage et se dirige vers le sol. Dans l'hémisphère nord, elle tourne dans le sens des aiguilles d'une montre.

Comme un réacteur d'avionCe tourbillon se déplace à des vitesses variant de 90 à plus de 300 km/ h. Son intensité varie de F0 à F5, selon l'échelle de Fujita. Le passage d'une tornade s'accompagne d'une baisse de pression marquée, de fortes pluies et parfois de grêlons. Le tourbillon fait un bruit comparable à un réacteur d'avion. Il déracine des arbres et des maisons, et les projette dans les airs. Une tornade dure environ une dizaine de minutes, mais certaines peuvent rester en activité jusqu'à une heure.

Le couloir des tornades

Les tornades surviennent surtout aux États-Unis, au Canada et en Australie. La plupart des tourbillons observés au Canada sont de faible intensité, soit F0 ou F1 sur l'échelle de Fujita. Aux États-Unis, la majorité des tornades se produisent dans le « couloir des tornades » (Tornado Alley), dans les États de l'Oklahoma, du Nebraska, du Kansas et du Missouri.

With US corn sowings nearly back at average page, investors withdraw more premium from prices. Soybean and wheat prices fall too, but sugar holds firm

The question was not so much whether corn prices would fall on Tuesday, but by how much.

With US farmers having planted with corn an area the size of Ireland and Portugal combined last week - a record pace of sowing, and one bigger than the market had expected - investors faced a reduced need to maintain a risk premium in futures on that score.

Seedings, which had been record slow as of May 12, were nearly back to average levels as of Sunday.

"We still have a lot of year left, but with corn plantings basically caught up and the soil moisture levels recharged we believe the long-term price trend will be lower," one broker said.

At broker Market 1, based in Iowa, the top US corn producing state, Mike Mawdsley said: "Weather should give us a scare or two this summer, but planting delays are old news."

A large and “extremely dangerous” tornado slammed into suburbs south of Oklahoma City as watches for destructive storms and flooding were posted in five states.

The tornado may have been a strong EF-3 or EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, said Ken Clark, an expert senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. The storm’s debris field was about 1 1/2 mile wide and it churned on the ground for more than 40 minutes, he said.

Live cattle futures recover from contract lows as a surprise rise in US beef prices wipes out caution over a jump in placements of animas on feedlots

A rise in US beef prices to a fresh record high hauled up live cattle futures from contract lows prompted by data showing a far faster recovery in placement of animals on feedlots than investors had expected.

Chicago live cattle futures fulfilled expectations in early deals by opening weak, with the best-traded August contract falling 0.6% below 1.18 cents a pound for the first time.

Brokers had forecast falling prices after US Department of Agriculture data showed placements of cattle on feedlots reaching 1.75m head last month, up 15.1% from April 2012, and a bigger rise than investors had expected.

"April placements exceeded the average pre-report estimate by about 3%, suggesting that there may be some pressure on August and October live cattle contracts," Paragon Economics and Steiner Consulting said in a report, also flagging the large size of the cattle taken in for fattening.

The average weight was 728.9 pounds, up 3.4% year on year, with the number of cattle weighing 800 pounds or more rising 21%.  

 "More big cattle on feed will mean more big cattle harvests this fall. Will the economy, and thus consumer demand and spending on beef, be strong enough to support cattle prices?"

The monstrous line of storms that stretched from Texas to Minnesota Sunday night saw tornadoes blow up and heavy rains soak soils, beginning the latest round of planting delays where there are still quite a few acres of corn and soybeans left to...