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There Is No Way… « Jim Sinclair's Mineset

My Dear Friends,


There is no way that any entity, be it private, public or both, is going to manipulate away the debt situation faced today. 

 

There is no way that the US is going to become a net exporter of energy in amounts that could even slow down this rate of growth in the debt. 

 

There is no way this flat line recovery is going to turn into a boom in business. 

 

There is no way that the unemployment figures are going to have a sustained improvement short of all the unemployed giving up hope and shifting to the underemployed list. 

 

There is no way that you can set such records in increased liquidity and not have explosion inflation regardless of business activity. 

 

There is no way that the Fed can liquidate its holdings of treasuries in an orderly manner without collapsing the Treasury market. 

 

There is no way the Fed can liquidate any toxic paper it took on from banks internationally in the crisis of 2008. 

 

There is no way the Fed can step away from QE which would mean higher interest rates without collapsing the flat line so called economic recovery. 

 

There is no way any human being could answer thousands of emails that are now overwhelming me.

 

I am deeply grateful for those CIGA around the world that browse for me, helping me keep in present time with all the unfolding monetary matters globally.

 

Whiners need only read the opening here to know that this is a passing but well constructed manipulative cloud. Those that are trying simply to frustrate me by sending emails cursing my genes that I was born are simply wasting their time and entering the spam blocker.

 

There is however a take away from this. Last night was the first time I went to sleep with a long list of incoming emails. I have no one to help me with emails because only I can answer them. For the first time, I must tell you that other than corporate emails I can no longer promise you prompt or even answers. I have a company to run, and that is my first order of business and that has always been and is my first order of business.

 

Sincerely, 
Jim

Hal's insight:

You won't find me in disagreement.

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January Jobs Data Will Disappoint; Fed to Keep Monetizing Debt | Michael Pento | Safehaven.com

January Jobs Data Will Disappoint; Fed to Keep Monetizing Debt | Michael Pento | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Michael Pento:

 

The recent spate of better data on initial jobless claims has caused bond yields to rise, stock prices to rally and gold shares to tumble in the last few days. For the 6th time since 2010, an oasis of improving economic data (that has proven to be ephemeral each time in the past) is once again giving investors the false signal of a robust and sustainable recovery. This has in turn caused investors to once again wonder when the Fed would finally stop buying assets from banks and raise interest rates, which have been at zero percent for over four years.

 

But the data on initial claims has been distorted by seasonal adjustments at the Labor Department. On an adjusted basis, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 19th dropped to 335k, which was the lowest level since January 2008. However, the raw data offers a different take on the labor condition. The unadjusted claims totaled 436,766 in the week ending January 19. That was 20k HIGHER than the 416k claims reported in the comparable week of 2012. The question is, how can initial claims be higher this year than the same week as last year; yet at the same time register the lowest level in 5 years?

 

Other data on the jobs front confirms the view that the labor market is not improving substantially whatsoever. From the January Empire State Manufacturing Report released last week: "Labor market conditions remained weak, with the indexes for both the number of employees and the average workweek remaining below zero for a fourth month in a row."

 

And then there is this from the Philly Fed's Manufacturing Survey: "Labor market conditions at reporting firms deteriorated this month. The employment index, at -5.2, fell from -0.2 in December. The percentage of firms reporting decreases in employment (16 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (11 percent). Firms also indicated a decrease in the average workweek compared with last month."

 

Don't expect a NFP number that is much better than the 150k anticipated by the market. In fact, the odds are better for a significant miss to the downside. ...

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Jon Smith's curator insight, March 23, 2013 12:45 PM

There has been better data on initial jobless claims lately. This is not however neccesarily a good thing. The reason is that investors get the false sign from this that the economy is booming. Information has been distorted by the Labor Department. Things are not significantly improving as other data has shown. My opinion is that graphs, data and statistics can be extremely beneficial but should always be looked at with caution. Raw data does not show reasons why and is not a full representation of conditions. I would suggest things such as interviewing random people in the community and ask them how the jobless rate is based on the people they know and its effects on them.

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The Coming Debt Limit Drama: Government Wins, We Lose | Ron Paul | Safehaven.com

The Coming Debt Limit Drama: Government Wins, We Lose | Ron Paul | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Ron Paul:

 

"

Last week President Obama bluntly warned Congress that he will not negotiate when it comes to raising the statutory debt limit. If Republicans attempt to use a debt ceiling vote to win concessions on spending from the White House, Mr. Obama threatens simply to raise the limit by executive order or other unilateral action.

 

This is business as usual in Washington. Democrats literally do not believe we have a deficit and debt problem, and reliably propose greater borrowing and spending. Republicans talk a good game when it comes to government debt, but have no credibility to argue against deficits or abuses of executive power. Brinksmanship ensues, and ugly compromises are reached at the 11th hour. We all lose as the endless borrowing and money printing further erode our dollar and our economy.

 

Keep in mind that the federal government relentlessly spends about $100 billion more each month than it collects in taxes. This means roughly 40% of every dollar Washington spends is borrowed, to be "paid back" only in highly devalued, newly created money. Ultimately this can only lead to the destruction of the US dollar, as history plainly teaches. But in the face of this reality Obama just shrugs, turning to demagoguery and talk of little old ladies' Social Security checks  . Like Obama, far too many Americans view federal debt as a nonissue. Consider Paul Krugman, America's most reliable Keynesian economist and a beloved figure among mainstream journalists. He recently wrote an article  about the debt limit issue, in which he discussed a controversial proposal to have the federal government simply create a platinum coin with a face value of $1 trillion ..."

Hal's insight:

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David Morgan: Debt Insanity | The Victory Report - Precious Metals Media and More

David Morgan: Debt Insanity | The Victory Report - Precious Metals Media and More | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Gold and Silver News Daily

 

You CAN’T Solve a Massive DEBT Problem by Adding to the DEBT!

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Economics Professor Laurence Kotlikoff - Bernanke Playing With Fire

http://usawatchdog.com/bernanke-playing-with-fire-laurence-kotlikoff/ - Economist Laurence Kotlikoff says, "We are actually in worse shape than any developed country. . . We are using accounting that would make Bernie Madoff blush." Kotlikoff thinks the Federal Reserve could easily lose complete control of inflation and warns, "Ben Bernanke is playing with fire here because we could have a tripling of the price level." Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Boston University Economics Professor Laurence Kotlikoff.

Hal's insight:

Good Interview. Hat tip to www.jsmineset.com 

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Eric De Groot: The Formula Makes The Debt Ceiling Debate Meaningless

Confusion and uncertainty will remerge [sic] as the headlines focus on the debt ceiling debate over the coming weeks. 

If politicians use the debt ceiling to contain big government, already anemic economic growth will implode rather quickly. We have talked about this for years both here and on jsminset.com, infinite liquidity in terms of fiscal and monetary policy are no longer options but rather necessities. Failure support the market with both translates to economic suicide for Western economies. 

Failure to raise the debt ceiling in the coming months means failure to pay interest on past debt and international default. The Chinese and Japanese both showing a tendency to play ball with the US (cooperate with their own agenda) won’t forgo interest payments on existing debt without extreme compensation. Failure to appease means the old economic game as ended; this means immediate monetary and economic...

Hal's insight:

Click over for the rest. Eric makes reference to a formula that Jim Sinclair created that details how raising taxes reduces economic growth. 

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Consumers Borrowed More in December

Consumers Borrowed More in December | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

U.S. consumer borrowing rose in December, a hopeful sign for the strength of the economy although debt taken on through revolving facilities like credit cards fell during the month.

 

The Federal Reserve said on Thursday consumer credit increased by $14.59 billion in December after rising by a slightly revised $15.91 billion in November. ...

Hal's insight:

Well, shocker, shocker I say. hat tip to http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/ ;

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Fed Balance Sheet Crosses $3 Trillion for First Time in History

Fed Balance Sheet Crosses $3 Trillion for First Time in History | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

BY Matthew Kanterman | January 25 2013 9:08 AM

 

January 23 marked a historic event for the Federal Reserve, the monetary institution which has seen its share of historic events since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007.

 

However, as of the week ended January 23, the Fed's balance sheet grew to $3 trillion for the first time ever, the largest in the Fed's nearly 100 year history.

 

The Fed began purchasing $85 billion per month earlier in January as part of its expanded third round of quantitative easing. Initially, the Fed had planned to purchase $45 billion per month in mortgage backed securities. ...

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Why Owning Gold is Absolutely Essential - Charles Ponzi Meets Cassandra | GE Christenson | Safehaven.com

Why Owning Gold is Absolutely Essential - Charles Ponzi Meets Cassandra | GE Christenson | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

"I willingly accept Cassandra's fate
To speak the truth, although believed too late."

~ Anne Killigrew

One fine day on the streets of Washington D.C. the ghost of Charles Ponzi struck up a conversation with the ghost of Cassandra. He was a charming devil and assumed she would find him irresistible so he began with "It is ironic, I think, that I am a thief, while you see and speak the truth, but the people believe me and scorn you."

 

Cassandra was not impressed and replied, "It is true. Most people would prefer a charming falsehood to the severity of truth. Since no one believes me anyway, you might as well tell me what scam you are currently promoting. I am truly interested. Please, do tell."

 

Never one to miss an opportunity, Senator Ponzi replied, "I am finding great success with central banking, paper money, and ever-increasing debt. Frankly, they are an easy sell, and people come to me begging to be part of the scam. It has been quite profitable so far and looks to be good for a long time." ...

Hal's insight:

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Gold: $10,000 Gold | John Ing | Safehaven.com

Gold: $10,000 Gold | John Ing | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. A fiat money system, like the one we have today, can produce claims without limit.

 

America has far too much debt at 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product. That debt draws down prosperity from the future. America faces a gigantic black hole between federal spending and revenues with deficits exceeding $1 trillion for four years in a row. This year despite Washington's machinations, the deficit will be the highest than in any year since 1946. But how to bring the trillion dollar deficits and $16.4 trillion public debt under control?

 

As usual politics ahead of economics. In the United States, like Europe, the government's insatiable appetite for revenues was an opportunity to both raise revenues and for a bit of social engineering by taxing the rich in an effort to close the wealth gap. For the first time in two decades, Congress actually raised taxes. Despite the rhetoric, a sliver of taxpayers cannot pay for everything. The experience of other countries suggests that isn't enough. Despite revenue hikes in the New Year's deal, cuts to spending were put off to later. The most urgent priority then is to reduce the scale of spending. Easier said than done. In the New Year's deal, the deficit would only shrink by $60 billion or 0.06 percent.

 

American has an unsustainable debt problem because they have a spending problem. Not included are the big three unfunded entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid whose billowing costs have been bloated by bureaucracies, litigation and extraordinary expensive healthcare. America should start with the President's own bipartisan Bowles-Simpson Commission ...

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Barring a Debt Ceiling Solution, the US Will Begin Defaulting on February 15 2013 | Zero Hedge

We’ve now have just a little over 30 days until US breaches its debt ceiling.

 

We would have already done so, except Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner borrowed some $200 billion from emergency funds to buy a few weeks’ time (announcing that he’d be leaving his post before the actual ceiling was breached).

 

The “solutions” to the debt ceiling discussions range from outright insane ($1 trillion coins) to just staggeringly irresponsible (just get rid of any oversight and grow the debt without restriction).

 

Let us consider the facts.

 

The only reason the US is even having these discussions is because we’ve added $1+ trillion in debt to our balance sheet every year since 2008. The reason we were able to get away with this was because Congress hasn’t even implemented a budget since that time. Indeed, the last time a budget was even proposed (by President Obama in that case) it was rejected 97-0.

 

Let’s say a US family spent all of its savings and income and so began using credit cards to fund its purchases. Then, instead of implementing reforms and a budget, these folks decide to abandon any kind of tracking of their expenses and start spending even more. Eventually this family would begin to stop paying its bills. ...

Hal's insight:

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