Gold and What Moves it.
82.7K views | +0 today
Gold and What Moves it.
Tracking all things that relate to and affect the price of gold.
Curated by Hal
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Gold and the Middle East Crisis | Clif Droke | Safehaven.com

Gold and the Middle East Crisis | Clif Droke | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Clif Droke writes:

 

"... For gold to commence another explosive bull market of the type we witnessed from 2002-2008 or from 2009-2011, gold needs one of two things: the threat of war or another central bank "easy money" policy. The odds definitely favor one or both of these two prerequisites by not later than 2014 as we head closer to the final "hard down" phase of the long-term deflationary Kress cycle. Policy makers will be forced to react aggressively to the onset of runaway deflation in 2013 just as they did during the 2008 financial crisis. This is how gold strongly benefits from deflation, just as it does from runaway inflation. The runaway deflation of 2013-2014, of which we got a preview in 2008, will set the stage not only for America's next war but also of gold's final bull run. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

The Bernanke Cliff | Michael Pento | Safehaven.com

The Bernanke Cliff | Michael Pento | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Michael Pento writes:

 

"There is just far too much attention being paid to the so called Fiscal Cliff occurring at the end of this year. The expiration of the "Bush era" tax cuts and forced spending reductions taking place because of the Sequestration, really doesn't amount to much more than a fiscal speed bump. In fact, less government spending is one of the pathways to prosperity; rather than becoming some make-believe economic catastrophe. And although raising tax rates isn't an optimal solution, there could still be a small benefit if there was a resulting increase in revenue, which then served to reduce annual deficits and began to address our long-term fiscal imbalances.

 

"However, there is indeed a real fiscal cliff that the United States is racing towards. It's the very same cliff that Europe has already dived over. That cliff is based on the collapse of our debt and dollar markets, resulting from the lost faith on the part of international investors. And that loss of faith is being greatly facilitated by our Federal Reserve.

 

"The Fed has been on an avowed inflation quest since 2008. They have sought inflation by systematically seeking to destroy the value of the dollar. By already printing trillions of dollars and now threatening to print even more, Mr. Bernanke has not only crumbled our currency but ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

It's the stupid economy - Welcome to Noddyland - Nigel Farage

Eurozone economic disaster.Follow on twitter: @ukipwebmaster...

 

Nigel Farage says nothing has changed.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Why are gold and silver shares not moving higher? - Julian Phillips

Why are gold and silver shares not moving higher? - Julian Phillips | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Interesting two part article from Julian Phillips. Here's the snippet from the first piece:

 

"This is perhaps one of the most asked questions among gold investors today. But the answer is not a simple one. It goes to the basics of which people invest in gold in the first place and what form of gold they buy. In this, the first of a two part article, we delve deeper into this subject.

 

"Who Buys Gold?

 

"U.S. Demand

 

"It's so easy to become short-sighted in the different facets of the gold market. In the U.S., it's easy to believe that gold price rises seen since 2005 are due to either the economic outlook of the U.S. or the strength and weakness of the USD. There's no doubt that in the short-term, gold price movements are driven by traders focused on the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro. But what gold are they buying?

 

"The sophisticated trading operations and tools available in the developed world are able to discount such price moves quickly and dramatically, seemingly providing such gold and silver price dominance. Looked at on a day-to-day basis, the evidence of such dominance is overwhelming. The volumes of gold bought and sold daily are enormous. But are they buying the sort of gold that moves the gold price? ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

It now boils down to how low this 'correction' will go - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily

It now boils down to how low this 'correction' will go - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Ed Steer writes in his Gold and Silver Daily:

 

"... If 'da boyz' follow the standard plan, the low will be in at such a point in time that nobody in North America will be able to trade it in any significant way. Everyone on this side of the Atlantic will wake up and find the deed already done...and we'll all be looking at the event in the rear view mirror.

 

"It now boils down to how low this 'correction' will go...and over what time period it will occur. I believe I mentioned in this space yesterday that we could be looking at around $60 down in gold...and about a $1.50 in silver. I'll stand by those numbers...and if I'm out, it won't be by much. And whatever ultimate lows are painted, it won't last long...and is another opportunity to buy the physical metal itself. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Rule: Gold Strong, Expect Merger & Acquisition Boom In Miners

Rule: Gold Strong, Expect Merger & Acquisition Boom In Miners | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Rick Rule told King World News:

 

"... I continue to be a gold bug. The gold market is showing some real signs of strength. Gold has been holding its own, despite recent strength from the US dollar. Momentum players are out of gold, but there has been strong retail support for the gold market.

 

"There is also strong sovereign support for gold, and this is coming at the expense of US Treasuries. So gold is acting particularly well. I would just add that the high net cost of gold production, which is over $1,200, is fairly bullish for the gold price.

 

"Investors need to be extremely selective about which mining shares they choose to invest in. But having said that, the rewards associated with being selective are going to be extremely bountiful. I would also add that we are in the early stages of a merger and acquisition boom. We may see up to 40 companies disappear by way of merger and acquisition activity over the next 18 to 24 months. ..."

 

I also found interesting what Rule had to say on the US Economy an the slight "signs of life." You should click through for that.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

This Will Be The Biggest Financial Fight In Human History

This Will Be The Biggest Financial Fight In Human History | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Robert Fitzwilson tells King World News:

 

"... In today’s financial markets, armies of all sorts are lined up for battle. Among them are governments trying to balance budgets, retirees and pension funds longing for income from higher rates, central banks desperate to reacquire the gold foolishly sold in the last 20 years, governments engaging in financial repression to maintain power, and countries jockeying for scarce resources, particularly oil.

 

"The largest armies in terms of numbers are the young people around the globe searching for work and poor people trying to afford food and fuel. For decades, what seemed like parallel paths and lives for most are now converging on the same destination. The destination is the figurative checkout counter.

 

"The world has been filling their shopping carts with aspirations, plans, goods and promises unaware of the aggregate cost, impact on others and the limitations on global resources. As people push their carts to the checkout counter, the potential for a battle of monumental proportion is looming on the horizon. ..."

 

Click through for the full piece. Fitzwilson compares what's going on to the time of Rome and Hannibal. It's an interesting history lesson.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Poland Watches Warily As Euro Crisis Spreads : NPR

Poland is part of the EU but hasn't yet adopted the euro single currency. An economic success story during rough times, Poland's economy grew an average of nearly 4 percent annually since 2008.

 

by Eric Westervelt:

 

"... Pawel Jozwicki, who works installing industrial air conditioners, is not hesitating to buy a new washing machine as he shops at a chain store in central Warsaw. But he is having second thoughts about his country's plans to eventually join the euro single currency.

 

"I really think it's best to stay with our own currency like Great Britain did," he says. "They stayed with their own money, and today they're able to take care of themselves a lot better."

 

"The anxiety is well-founded. Poland's economic destiny is deeply tied to Europe: About 80 percent of its trade is with EU countries, about 30 percent with neighboring Germany, Europe's largest economy.

 

"If you are a Polish investor sitting on cash, you [are] looking ... [at the] disaster which is happening in eurozone, you are simply afraid of investing big money," says Ryszard Petru, a partner with PwC in Warsaw.

 

"If you are a Polish investor sitting on cash, you [are] looking ... [at the] disaster which is happening in eurozone, you are simply afraid of investing big money.

"He says many Polish companies are now investing enough to keep operations going, but they are holding off on making big-ticket investments in infrastructure, expansion or hiring. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

How many times do we have to read that "housing is recovering" before we catch on it's all self-serving artifice

How many times do we have to read that "housing is recovering" before we catch on it's all self-serving artifice | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Charles Hugh Smith:

 

"... Once the market breaks through the dam of manipulation, the real estate Status Quo will lose all credibility. How many times do we have to read that "housing is recovering" before we catch on it's all self-serving artifice?

 

"Interest rates can't drop any more, so that manipulation has run its course. As incomes continue declining and the number of full-time jobs drops, the number of people who truly qualify for mortgages also declines. As Baby Boomers seek to cash out home equity to live on, downsize or simply surrender their underwater homes, housing inventory will swell, never mind the millions of distressed properties being held off the market by lenders hoping for a reinflation of values.

 

"The demographics and economy simply don't support rising demand, regardless of how many mortgage guarantees the now-impaired FHA issues and how many times the real estate industry issues "now is the time to buy" bulletins.

 

"The expectation that buying a house is a low-risk pathway to middle class wealth has been fatally undermined, and the credibility of everyone who claims otherwise is increasingly at risk. Too many players depend on this expectation being kept alive for their own income, and so the self-serving calls of "turnaround" by vested interests will continue until their credibility has been reduced to zero. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Trader Dan's Market Views: What is supporting gold on the downside is not hedge fund money

Trader Dan's Market Views: What is supporting gold on the downside is not hedge fund money | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Trader Dan writes:

 

"... What is supporting gold on the downside is not hedge fund money but rather value based buying originating out of Asia and from other large entities which actually study fundamentals and make buying or selling decisions based upon that analysis. We curse the hedge funds when they are liquidating longs or establishing new short positions in gold or in silver but keep in mind, it is these same clumsy trading clods that also drive these metals higher when their computers flip over to the buy side. Love 'em or hate 'em, they are a force to be reckoned with; any analysis of the markets that disregards their impact is not worth the paper it is written on."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Libor Fixing Scandal: Ex-Barclays Trader Jay Merchant under Investigation Exits UBS

Libor Fixing Scandal: Ex-Barclays Trader Jay Merchant under Investigation Exits UBS | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

By LIANNA BRINDED

 

UBS’ head of swap trading quits bank after probe into rigging of Libor during his time at Barclays.

 

UBS has confirmed that its head of swap trading, Jay V. Merchant, has left the bank, amid reports that he is under investigation for the possible manipulation of the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) that saw Barclays settle for a record fine of £290m with US and UK regulators.

 

"However, a UBS spokesperson would not comment to the IBTimes UK as to whether Merchant, who reportedly worked for Barclays in New York from 2006 to 2009, exited the bank on Libor investigation related matters.

 

"According to a number of media reports citing industry records, "Merchant began working for Barclays in 1998 and remained with the British bank until the end of 2009, after which he went to head a swaps trading desk for UBS in Stamford, Connecticut."

 

"Records maintained by UK securities regulators also show that Merchant was registered as working in Britain from 2001 through parts of 2007," said Reuters. Attempts by the IBTimes UK to contact Merchant's legal counsel in the United States were not immediately successful. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Fleckenstein - Markets Will Crush Central Bank Actions

Bill Fleckenstein tells King World News:

 

"... So what happened is that long-term problems weren’t addressed, or made worse, and some of the ‘long-term’ is now here. So it wasn’t just the bubbles that the Fed created, it was the illusion of prosperity that kept us from dealing with the longer-term issues.

 

"Fast forward to the present, all of the focus is on the Fed and the other central banks about what they are going to do next from a ‘print more money’ standpoint. Letting the Fed and these other central banks do what they think is best has been a terrible strategy.

 

:Those of us who have criticized them for doing this all along are in the perverse situation now where we have to continue to root for them to pursue these bad policies because I feel it’s only taking this to the end of it, where finally the world’s bond markets start to revolt.

 

"It will get us away from this stupid process that Greenspan really ran into the ground, and get us back to some sort of a gold-based money standard. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Stage set for gold to go higher - and silver even better - Doody

Stage set for gold to go higher - and silver even better - Doody | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

John Doody* is poised to deploy the one-third of his portfolio he's been holding in cash into his top 10 gold and silver stocks. Interview with The Gold Report.

 

by JT Long

 

FORT LAUDERDALE (THE GOLD REPORT) -

 

"The Gold Report: After a couple of big pushes up last year to $1,900/ounce (oz), the gold price has been bouncing around $1,600/oz. You've pointed to a lack of investor enthusiasm for the stall. Do you see that changing any time in the near future?

 

"John Doody: In this now 11-year bull market, gold actually ran up to several tops before the most recent one of $1,895/oz in August 2011. In 2006, it topped out at $725/oz and it was 27 months before it moved higher. Then in 2008, it topped out at $1,011/oz, and it took 26 months to go higher. Running up and settling back is typical of any market that gets overenthusiastic. We're in the same basic formation.

 

"What drives the gold price is still the major factor in this market: real interest rates. The U.S. real rate of return (risk free Treasuries minus inflation) is negative, and ultimately, that number will come to the fore and drive the gold price higher. Unfortunately, it drives everybody crazy that the economics and the gold price aren't linked like Siamese twins, nor are the stock prices and gold price. That's why investors need guidance and help. If they were linked, people wouldn't need to buy a newsletter.

 

"TGR: Very true. How high could gold go?

 

"JD: Predicting gold's future price is a fool's errand because nobody really knows. You can say what the gold price would have to be for the gold at Fort Knox to fully back the U.S. currency, which is around $9,000/oz. Maybe that's the high end of the range. When people talk that number though, I'm always willing to agree with the caveat of, "Well, in whose lifetime?" ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

The U.S. National Debt as seen in February 2009 | Ian Campbell | Safehaven.com

The U.S. National Debt as seen in February 2009 | Ian Campbell | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Ian Campbell looks back and concludes:

 

"Simply put, the United States Government (Democrats and Republicans) has failed to confront the deficits effectively, and the quicksand in 2012 is deeper now, and has greater 'sucking strength', than was the case in February 2009."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Gold Price Firm, Soros, Paulson Add to Gold Holdings

Gold Price Firm, Soros, Paulson Add to Gold Holdings | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

By jturbin:

 

"... Soros Fund Management more than doubled its investment in the GLD, while Paulson & Co. increased its holdings by 26% to 21.8 million shares. In doing so, Paulson & Co. remained the largest shareholder in the GLD.

 

"Paulson’s purchases reflected commentary he made earlier this year, when in February he told clients that gold was his favorite long-term bet. He cited the yellow metal’s ability to protect against rising inflation, currency debasement, and a potential breakup of the euro zone."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Presenting The Shocking Source Of US Treasury Demand In The Past Year | ZeroHedge

Presenting The Shocking Source Of US Treasury Demand In The Past Year | ZeroHedge | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Fascinating piece from Tyler Durden. Here's the beginning of his article on ZeroHedge. Click through for the rest and the graphs:

 

"When one thinks US Treasurys, and demand thereof, two entities pop into mind: the Federal Reserve, which over the past 3 years has been the biggest institutional buyer of US paper, and China, which is the largest foreign holder of US TSYs. Yet over the past year something curious happened: when it comes to setting marginal demand for US Treasurys, it was neither the Fed, whose sterilized Operation Twist has kept its holdings of US Tsys relatively flat, nor China, which has actually been a major seller of US paper, that has been the dominant source of marginal demand for Uncle Sam's never to be repaid obligations. Japan.

 

"That's right, as the chart below shows using TIC data, even as China was quietly selling its paper (and that accounts for UK holdings, aka Chinese offshore operations) in the beginning of the year, taking its total from over $1.3 trillion to $1.15 trillion in December, where it has stayed without moving at all in 2012 as China entered a buyer's strike mode, it was Japan who quickly stepped in to fill the void. And what a void it has filled. According to TIC data, Japanese holdings of US paper have soared from $882 billion in June 2011 to a whopping $1119 billion a year later. In the process the spread between Chinese and Japanese holdings of US TSYs has collapsed from $430 billion to a tiny $43 billion and at this rate Japan will overtake China as the top foreign holder of US paper within 3-4 months! ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Aaaand It's Gone: This Is Why You Always Demand Physical | ZeroHedge

Post by Tyler Durden on www.ZeroHedge.com:

 

"We have said it over and over, we'll say it again. For all those who for one reason or another would like to boycott the broken markets, yet trade gold in paper form, please understand that all the invested capital is at risk of total loss and can and will be lost, commingled and rehypothecated, not necessarily in that order, with little to zero recourse and the residual claim on liquidating assets pushed to the very end of the queue. Because if Lehman, MF Global, Peregrine, and countless other examples were not enough, here comes Amber Gold: a gold-based investment ponzi scheme out of Poland, in which it is likely needless to say that the gullible investors never had actual possession of the gold. And when they tried, it was gone. All gone. ..." click through for the full story.

 

hat tip to Ed Steer http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/aaaand-its-gone-why-you-always-demand-physicalb

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Jim Sinclair: There is only one thing you need to know about gold

Jim Sinclair writes:

 

"There is only one thing you need to know about gold: It is going to and through $3500.

 

"We have witnessed market manipulation right here at these levels 9 times. This one will have no more success than the predecessors.

 

"I know that respected minds in our camp feel accumulation is not the intention of the major gold banks.

 

"Do you really believe these mammoth Bankster operations are really going to miss the great gold market’s best move over the shortest time span? I find that impossible to conceive of. They did not miss it in the 70s and will not now.

 

"Gold is going to and through $3500. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

John Lothian: The Unanswered Question

John Lothian: The Unanswered Question | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

"As we search for solutions to the Peregrine Financial Group crime spree and the MF Global non-criminal (so far) implosion, answers to questions about another criminal brokerage firm blow-up go unanswered.

 

"The industry has come forward with after-the-fact solutions to the MF Global issues. The regulators have quickly put in place electronic confirmation of bank statements to address the PFG mess. But despite all of the concern over inexperienced or captured regulators in each of those cases, the the fact is a well-known private equity investor and a robust public accounting IPO process failed to find the ongoing fraud at Refco. One estimate is that Thomas H. Lee and the public accounting firms doing the IPO due diligence spent over $10 million in investigating Refco and did not find their more than decade long fraud.

 

"You might say, well, in the Refco case there was no problem with their futures commission merchant business and that it seamlessly moved to Man Financial. But you would be wrong. You see Refco’s now in jail CEO was also stealing money from clients, but the clients would change often. The Friday before the Monday Columbus Day banking holiday when the news first broke, Refco stole over $300 million of customer segregated funds from a single customer account while directing a transfer of collateral intended for its FCM to its off-shore broker-dealer. ..."

 

hat tip to http://twitter.com/shortorlong/

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

U.S. banks told to make plans for preventing collapse

U.S. banks told to make plans for preventing collapse | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Reuters:

 

"U.S. regulators directed five of the country's biggest banks, including Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., to develop plans for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems, emphasizing that the banks could not count on government help.

 

"The two-year-old program, which has been largely secret until now, is in addition to the "living wills" the banks crafted to help regulators dismantle them if they actually do fail. It shows how hard regulators are working to ensure that banks have plans for worst-case scenarios and can act rationally in times of distress.

 

"Officials like Lehman Brothers former Chief Executive Dick Fuld have been criticized for having been too hesitant to take bold steps to solve their banks' problems during the financial crisis.


"According to documents obtained by Reuters, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency first directed five banks -- which also include Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. -- to come up with these "recovery plans" in May 2010.

 

"They told banks to consider drastic efforts to prevent failure in times of distress, including selling off businesses, finding other funding sources if regular borrowing markets shut them out, and reducing risk. The plans must be feasible to execute within three to six months, and banks were to "make no assumption of extraordinary support from the public sector," according to the documents. ..."

 

hat tip to http://twitter.com/StuartWebbTV ;

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Five Reasons Why The Government Is Destroying The Dollar | Daniel Amerman | Safehaven.com

Five Reasons Why The Government Is Destroying The Dollar | Daniel Amerman | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Daniel Amerman:

 

"The United States government has five interrelated motivations for destroying the value of the dollar:

 

1. Creating money out of thin air on a massive basis is all that stands between the current state of hidden depression, and overt depression with unemployment levels in excess of those seen in the US Great Depression of the 1930s.

 

2. It is the most effective way to meet not just current crushing debt levels, but to deal with the rapidly approaching massive generational crisis of paying for Boomer retirement promises.

 

3. It creates a lucratively profitable $500 billion a year hidden tax for the benefit of the US government which is not understood by voters or debated in elections.

 

4. It is the weapon of choice being used to wage currency war and reboot US economic growth; and


5. It is an essential component of political survival and enhanced power for incumbent politicians. ..." click through for the rest.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Twitter / fuTuRe_sHOcK: Americans Are Carrying More ...

Americans Are Carrying More Credit Card Debt http://t.co/AsctDe8J
Aug 14 via web Favorite Retweet Reply

Instantly connect to what's most important to you. Follow your friends, experts, favorite celebrities, and breaking news.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

The Golden Truth: Housing: Look Out Below

The Golden Truth: Housing: Look Out Below | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Dave in Denver writes:

 

"... The truth is that, yes, there has been a slight bounce in home sales this year and slight bounce in prices. Please accept that this is nothing more than a proverbial "dead cat" bounce. After all, markets never go straight down to their eventual bottom - there's always a counter-trend "bounce" before the next leg down reasserts its ugly head. Housing is no different, especially when you factor in the trillions of dollars printed up and borrowed in order to keep the banks from collapsing and giving them room to "reload" on housing debt - albeit under much more stringent credit guard rails than the first time around.

 

"In addition, record low mortgage finance rates, plunging home prices and a shortage in apartment inventory has fueled an investor binge on "investment rental" properties, which has created an illusion of "organic" home sales. Furthermore, the Government, using your tax money, has been subsidizing the cost of mortgages for those who refi, subsidizing the mortgage principal reduction programs designed to keep people in their homes and subsidizing the transfer of a massive amount of foreclosed homes from FNM/FRE to rental investors. This dynamic, combined with the massive foreclosure moratorium for most of 2011, has created the dangerous illusion of growth in home sales and low inventory. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly in July to 2.6% Beats Bank of England Target

UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly in July to 2.6% Beats Bank of England Target | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

By SHANE CROUCHER

 

"UK inflation rose unexpectedly in July as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.6 percent, casting a shadow over the Bank of England's forecast that it will reach the government's two percent target by around the end of the year.

 

"Rising air fares sent inflation up on June's figure of 2.4 percent, reported the Office for National Statistics (ONS), while slowing price drops from continued discounting of clothing and footwear goods failed to provide the same off-setting inflation counterweight as in previous months.

 

"July's unexpected rise in UK inflation is disappointing, but it is likely to be just a temporary blip," said Vicky Redwood, an analyst at Capital Economics.

 

"Admittedly, the near-term outlook for inflation has worsened slightly on the back of the renewed rise in petrol prices and the rise in agricultural prices. ..."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Hal
Scoop.it!

Mystery Of July Retail Sales "Beat" Solved: It Is All In The "Seasonal Adjustment" | ZeroHedge

Mystery Of July Retail Sales "Beat" Solved: It Is All In The "Seasonal Adjustment" | ZeroHedge | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Tyler Durden on www.zerohedge.com:

 

"The July retail sales beat came as a surprise to many: an 0.8% increase (full series here) at a time when the data was supposed to grow at less than half this would surely be indicative of a potential turnaround in the US economy. Then we decided to do a quick spot check if maybe the Census Bureau had not adopted one of the BLS' worst habits: fudging seasonal adjustment factors. The reason for this is because we happened to notice that Not Seasonally Adjusted (full series here) retail sales data in July actually declined by 0.9% from $405.8 to $402 billion. Of course, if the Census Bureau was using a consistent, or at least remotely comparable July seasonal adjustment factor as it has in the past, this would make sense and we would move on. So we decided to look at what the July seasonal adjustment variance over the past decade has been. What we found would have shocked us if indeed this is not precisely what we expected: with the July seasonal adjustment factor routinely subtracting a substantial amount from the NSA number, averaging at -$5.2 billion, in 2012, for the first time this decade, the seasonal adjustment not only did not subtract, but in fact added "value" to the NSA number, resulting in a seasonally adjusted number that was $1.9 billion higher than the NSA number at $403.9 billion. ..." click through for the rest of the data.

more...
No comment yet.