Gold and What Moves it.
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Gold and What Moves it.
Tracking all things that relate to and affect the price of gold.
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A Message To All The Unleveraged Gold Investors « Jim Sinclair's Mineset

My Dear Friends,


I have been working constantly since Friday to answer your emails. Being indoors all this time, I had to go out and get some fresh air. To my astonishment upon my return there were more incoming emails than I have answered in the last three days. Clearly, I will not get these all answered, but that does not mean I am not going to try.

 

I understand the responsibility of giving you my opinion. To say I understand the serious nature of what I say is a world-class understatement. The people I am speaking to are not the leveraged paper traders in gold. I am speaking to those who have invested in gold without borrowed money as protection against the instability of the Western world’s financial condition.

 

There is no question whatsoever in my mind that gold will trade at and above $3500. The volatility in gold is only going to become more extreme, so you crazies who are in gold on heavy margin are beyond my help.

 

If you are so concerned that you cannot think straight, what are you doing investing in anything? I willingly stake my over 50 years in this business to tell you gold will trade at $3500 and above. I have committed 100% of what I am and have to my gold related position. I have zero concern about my gold investment. Absolutely none whatsoever.

 

I told you when gold was forced back under $1000 that it would trade at $1650 and above. For that analysis, I was scorned by many who are the same personalities that today are the outspoken bears.

 

Gold will trade at and above $3500 and no manipulator, private or public, can stop it. Gold is not for the weak, but then the weak will not survive this crisis in Western finance trying to be hidden from view with every possible public relations weapon.

 

For all the bears communicating with me tonight, you are totally wasting your time.

 

Sincerely, 
Jim

Hal's insight:

Great letter from Jim Sinclair. Nothing has changed in the factors that drove gold to the current price level. Except that debt has only increased. Why worry?

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Safe havens assets under pressure as Gold, Silver fall

Safe havens assets under pressure as Gold, Silver fall | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Russia's central bank intends to continue buying gold, its first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said earlier this month, although he denied there is a target for gold to make up 10% of reserves.

 

By Ben Traynor
BullionVault

London Gold market report

The US dollar gold price extended its losses from last week Monday, dipping to a near-three-week low below $1655 per ounce during London's morning trading, as stock markets ticked higher, with the FTSE 100 hitting its highest level since May 2008.

The S&P 500 meantime climbed above 1500 last week for the first time since December 2007.

Silver this morning dropped below $31 an ounce to hit a two-week low, while other commodities were broadly flat and US Treasuries gained.

Last week saw spot gold fall 1.5%, while silver was down 2.1%.

"It seems that a number of safe haven refuges like gold, the Japanese Yen, US Treasury bonds, and the Swiss Franc have all been under pressure lately," says Ed Meir, metals analyst at brokerage INTL FCStone. ...

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Gold nears $1660 in Asian trade

Gold nears $1660 in Asian trade | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
They added that gold might rebound after the Fed's meeting as the market might have priced in the hawkish sentiment.

 

SINGAPORE(BullionStreet): Gold advanced in Asian trade Tuesday but remained volatile after a reasonably U.S. economic data showed signs of recovery.

 

Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1659.53 an ounce at 12.00 noon Singapore time while US gold for February delivery was at $1658.94 an ounce on the comex division of nymex.

 

Analysts said investors await any decisions from US Fed meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

They added that gold might rebound after the Fed's meeting as the market might have priced in the hawkish sentiment. ...

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Defend Yourself By Not Giving In « Jim Sinclair's Mineset

by Jim Sinclair:


My Dear Friends,


Please do not fall for this classic manipulation. Please do not make the gold banks happy by giving away your physical. Please do not throw away gold shares because the hedge fund have worked black PR so well that they even have convinced some well known community physical gold merchants of their bear position of shares.

 

How many times have you seen this not to recognize what it is? Well, this is the big one and last play to denude you of your position. Remember, for every seller there is a buyer. Has not every reaction in gold since $248 attempted to do just that? This big one is no different.

 

Fundamentally we are approaching the period in gold when it will move up the most points in the shortest period of time. The paper gold market is being used to shake the bullish tree harder this time than any time before because of what is to come. Fear is the most powerful emotion in markets and it is being used perfectly to enrich the grand names of finance at your expense.

 

Remember how you felt during the first reaction above $1000? This is nothing different. The take downs are planned for ...

Hal's insight:

Click through for the rest of Jim's message to his readers.

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Peter Grandich: When Gold Breaks From This Base, It Will Trigger A Stampede Of Momentum Buyers | Bull Market Thinking

Peter Grandich: When Gold Breaks From This Base, It Will Trigger A Stampede Of Momentum Buyers | Bull Market Thinking | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

During the interview, Peter gave a sober outlook on the junior resource market, warned of a frightening class-warfare to arrive shortly in the US, and spoke on which key market will trigger a collapse making 2008 look like just a warm-up.

 

Peter also spoke on gold and silver, indicating, “It’s a stealth bull-market…what I mean by that is, never in 30 years in this business could I say a market could have risen as much as they have, and still see so few net participants in it…Go to any financial institution in any part of the country and look at any 100 accounts, and you won’t find 1 out of 100 that own physical metal—the bulk of the buying net-net, has been outside of the United States.”

 

When asked about this excruciating consolidation period for many investors, Peter explained that, “They [the metals] have digested a decade’s worth of large gains, they’ve built a very strong base…as tough as it is for somebody to struggle with it, the longer the base is built, when the inevitable breakout to the upside comes, the bigger that move can be. I believe that move is coming this year ...

Hal's insight:

Click over for the full interview which you can listen to at the bottom of the page. Peter discuss the difficulty of the past year in a candid interview.

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Russian central bank to keep buying gold, moving away from risky paper assets | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Russian central bank to keep buying gold, moving away from risky paper assets | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

By Darya Korsunskaya
Reuters

 

DAVOS, Switzerland -- The Russian central bank will continue to buy gold as it seeks to diversify its foreign reserves away from paper assets it views as risky, First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said today.

 

The Bank of Russia has built up the world's fourth-largest foreign reserves, worth $530 billion, by buying oil export dollars to keep the rouble competitive. The hoard includes two rainy-day budget funds that guard against fiscal shocks.

 

The bank has also been a bullion buyer and the share of gold in its reserves is approaching a medium-term target of 10 percent, raising questions over whether it would keep buying gold. ...

Hal's insight:

Keep buying gold? Really? What do the Russians know that the West doesn't? 

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China Gold International Gold output hits 138,000 oz in 2012

China Gold International, the Canada based Toronto and Hong Kong listed firm said the production was much higher than the set target of 130,000 to 135,000 ounces.

 

BEIJING(BullionStreet): China's largest gold producer CNGC's overseas division China Gold International Resources produced 138,000 ounces last year.

 

China Gold International, the Canada based Toronto and Hong Kong listed firm said the production was much higher than the set target of 130,000 to 135,000 ounces.

 

China Gold International has also maintained its overseas asset acquisition efforts, despite not having clinched any deal in the past two years.

 

China National Gold's exclusive acquisition vehicle overseas has previously acquired or operated overseas firms with assets in mainland China. ...

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Lassonde: This Gold Mania Will Compare To 1980 Run In Silver

Lassonde: This Gold Mania Will Compare To 1980 Run In Silver | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today a legend in the business, Pierre Lassonde, told King World News this is the calm before we head into the eye of the storm.  Lassonde also said additional global turmoil and crisis will propel the gold market into a mania which will be comparable to silver’s historic run to $50 in 1980.  


Lassonde is past President of Newmont Mining, past Chairman of the World Gold Council and current Chairman of Franco Nevada.  Lassonde is one of the wealthiest, most respected individuals in the resource world, so KWN takes his warning about the coming financial storm, and prediction for gold very seriously.


Eric King:  “We’ve seen the Indians step in and raise import duties by 50% on gold in an effort to curb demand, Pierre.  What did you make of that?

 

Lassonde: “Well, in the past it has never deterred the Indians from buying gold because they smuggle it.  The (Indian) government is very well aware of that.  They can increase the taxes by a small amount and the official channel will still work.  

 

But if they increase it too much, what you are going to see is the gold is going to go through Dubai and it will be smuggled back in (to India).  So you are going to see Dubai, all of the sudden, will be importing 400 tons of gold for like 3 people.  Where does it go?  It’s all going to India.  So I’m not too concerned about it at this point.

 

Two countries in the world buy more than 50% of all the gold every year, and that’s China and India.... 

 


Hal's insight:

Click through for the rest of the interview by Eric King.

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Gold Prices Digest Bank of Japan’s QE, Inflation Measures

Gold Prices Digest Bank of Japan’s QE, Inflation Measures | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

GOLD PRICE NEWS – Gold prices remained in consolidation mode on Tuesday as investors and traders digested the impact of the Bank of Japan’s latest expansionary monetary policy decision.  The spotprice of gold oscillated between gains and losses near $1,690 per ounce after the Japanese central bank announced yesterday that it would launch an unlimited quantitative easing program in January of 2014 and raise its inflation target from 1% to 2%.

 

The policy measures were consistent with proclamations made by Shinzo Abe, the recently-elected Prime Minister of Japan, who advocated for more aggressive measures to stimulate the nation’s stagnant economy.  Following the central bank’s move, the U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen by 1.2% to 88.56.


Commenting on the impact of the Bank of Japan’s decision for the gold price, David Govett – Marex Spectron’s head of precious metals – wrote in a note to clients that “This is seen as mildly bullish for gold, but has been mooted for a while and is fairly discounted.” ...

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Tajikistan buys 1.1 tons of Gold in 2012

The former soviet state's total gold reserves climbed to 11 tons with the purchase of 1.1 tons of gold in 2012.

 

DUSHANBE(BullionStreet): Tajikistan's gold and forex reserves grew nerarly 22 percent to $972 million last year.

 

According to country's central bank, National Bank of Tajikistan, gold and foreign currency reserves of Tajikistan amounted to $972 million in 2012, up by 21.25% compared to 2011. ...

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Iran arrests 40 people over Gold markets manipulation

According to country's Judiciary spokesman, indictments have been issued against the suspects and 20 other suspects are being held in custody.

 

TEHRAN(BullionStreet): Sanctions hit Iran arrested 40 persons on charges of manipulating the country's foreign exchange and gold markets.

 

According to country's Judiciary spokesman, indictments have been issued against the suspects and 20 other suspects are being held in custody.

 

Iranian officials had previously said ...

Hal's insight:

Manipulate? Is that possible? LOL

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This Exploding Grenade Will Create A Gold & Silver Surge

This Exploding Grenade Will Create A Gold & Silver Surge | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

After a solid advance last week for gold and silver, today Michael Pento has written exclusively for King World News to let readers know about the exploding grenade which is going to send, “... increasing money flows into both gold and silver.”  Here is Pento’s piece:  “Japan has already suffered through 25 years of an economic malaise because they have refused to allow the free market to work its reconciliation magic.  Their reliance on government borrowing and spending to rescue the economy has proven to be a miserable failure.


Because of this fact, Japanese politicians have succeeded to increase the debt to GDP ratio to 237%, which should have already caused a collapse in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and the Yen.  However, JGBs have held their value for two reasons: The Japanese own 92% of their sovereign debt; And, up until now, deflation has reigned over the island. ..."

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Tax cuts on 'Paper Gold' may trim India Gold import by 70%

Tax cuts on 'Paper Gold' may trim India Gold import by 70% | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
India's gold imports could fall much further, by 60% to 70% if the government also presses ahead with plans for gold bonds and a controversial proposed tax amnesty on such investments.

 

NEW DELHI(BullionStreet): Any further hike in gold import duty could trim India's imports by 25 percent this year, according to All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.

 

Federation chairman Bachhraj Bamalwa said he believes import duty on gold will be hiked to 6% in the budget scheduled for Feb. 28.

 

The basic customs duty on standard gold bars is 4 percent and the levy on non-standard gold is 10 percent.

 

He added that if the government also presses ahead with plans for bullion-backed paper investment products such as gold bonds and a controversial proposed tax amnesty on such investments, imports could fall much further, by 60%-70%.

 

Increase in duty will make gold costlier and at this price investors will not be interested,he warned. ...

Hal's insight:

Manipulation in the open.

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Vietnam banks told to settle Gold loans by June this year

Vietnam banks told to settle Gold loans by June this year | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
However, analysts said it will take nearly four years to clear all the outstanding loans in gold as most of the credit contracts were signed before the Gold Decree were all long term up to ten years.

 

HANOI(BullionStreet): Banks in Vietnam were told by the central bank to settle or reduce sharply outstanding loans against gold by June 2013.

 

However, analysts said it will take nearly four years to clear all the outstanding loans in gold as most of the credit contracts were signed before the Gold Decree were all long term up to ten years.

 

Since the central bank has set up the deadline in June 2013, banks would have to convert the gold outstanding loans into VND outstanding loans.

If not, banks would have to use their dong to buy gold for lending. Analysts added that on an average most banks in Vietnam keep about 100,000 taels of gold against loans.

 

Banks may have to negotiate with clients to convert the current gold outstanding loans to Vietnam dong. ...

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Fed To Create Gold Rally & Bond Plunge Next Week

With continued volatility in gold and silver, today Michael Pento has written exclusively for King World News and he is predicting a rally in gold next week.  Here is Pento’s tremendous piece:  “The recent spate of better data on initial jobless claims has caused bond yields to rise, stock prices to rally, and gold shares to tumble in the last few days.  For the sixth time since 2010, an oasis of improving economic data (that has proven to be ephemeral each time in the past) is once again giving investors the false signal of a robust and sustainable recovery.


“This has, in turn, caused investors to once again wonder when the Fed would finally stop buying assets from banks and raise interest rates, which have been at zero percent for over four years.  But the data on initial claims has been distorted by seasonal adjustments at the Labor Department.  

 

"On an adjusted basis, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 19th dropped to 335k, which was the lowest level since January 2008. ..."

Hal's insight:

Wondering what's happening to gold right now? Check out the full post. There's certainly a ring of truth to Pento's analysis. I think some of the other things affecting the spot are the moves of govs like India and Vietnam who are attempting to manipulate the way their citizens hold the precious metal.

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Trader Dan's Market Views: Gold Shoved Back Down

Trader Dan's Market Views: Gold Shoved Back Down | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Yesterday I mentioned that gold had stalled out at its 50 day moving average, which just so happens to come in very near the psychological resistance level of $1700. Today it was knocked lower and hit its 200 day moving average on the downside which has stopped its descent, for now. There looks to me to be a couple of things going on here. The first is a technical failure with its inability to get a handle of $17" in front of it. That must occur for momentum based buying to come in, buying which I might add is necessary if this thing is going to to anything to excite the bulls. The Swap Dealers and Bullion Banks are selling very heavily at this level and are absorbing all of the bids coming into the market. ...
Hal's insight:

Click through for the rest of Trader Dan's analysis.

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Gold Chart Analysis 25 Jan 2013

Gold Chart Analysis 25 Jan 2013 | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

The gold price continues to tease and exasperate gold bugs as each attempt to recover and move beyond the $1700 per ounce price point is promptly extinguished with a sharp reversal, which was once again the case in yesterday’s trading session.

 

From a technical perspective, and as stressed in previous gold market analysis, the $1700 per ounce price point is now taking on increased significance, particularly following the posting of an isolated pivot high on 22nd January which saw gold touch an intra day high of $1695.90.  This aligns almost exactly with the isolated pivot high of 2nd January at $1695.40.  These price points were further reinforced this week at failures at this level, virtually every day and confirming the weakness in gold which we saw yesterday, as the February GC contract closed at $1669.90.

 

From a fundamental perspective this lack of interest is partly due to the current move back into ...

Hal's insight:

Click over for the rest of Anna's analysis. 

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India's Gold import duty hike to increase smuggling

India's Gold import duty hike to increase smuggling | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Imports of gold reached 223.1 tonnes in the third quarter of this year, up 9% from a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. India accounted for 30% of global consumer demand for gold.

 

By Rebecca Bundhun, Tom Arnold
India's increased import duty on gold is expected to prompt more smuggling of the precious metal into the country.

The government this week increased the import duty on gold to 6 per cent from 4% in a move intended to curb the high demand that has been a significant factor in the country's gaping current account deficit. 

"If this is imposed strictly it will lead to illegal smuggling of gold," said Chetan Dhakan, the owner of National Jewellery, a gold trader in Dubai's Gold Souq in Deira. "People always find a way to move gold."

India's government also took a series of steps last year to try to reduce gold imports, including an earlier increase in the import duty and banning banks from lending money to customers to buy gold.

"Gold demand has risen as a hedge against inflation," said analysts at Nomura. "Therefore, we think ...

Hal's insight:

I'm shocked, shocked, I say!

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India And Vietnam Are Trying To Get Their People Off Gold

India And Vietnam Are Trying To Get Their People Off Gold | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Ashley Kindergan, The Financialist

 

When uncertainty reigns, investors all over the world turn to gold as a safe haven.

 

But some countries are starting to take issue with their residents’ preference for storing wealth in gold bars, rather than bank accounts.

 

Large gold imports can throw off a country’s current account balance – the difference between what a country earns and what it spends on foreign trade.

 

Widespread investments in physical gold also mean that large pots of wealth sit idle, instead of being put to work in the broader economy.

 

And in countries where gold is a popular investment, those financial institutions which carry large gold deposits, lend cash against gold or offer interest-bearing gold deposit accounts, can pose a risk to the financial system if commodity prices suddenly shift.



Read more: http://www.thefinancialist.com/india-and-vietnam-taking-the-glitter-out-of-gold/#ixzz2IvMjvuH9

Hal's insight:

Interesting read.  hat tip to http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/forget-germany-its-turkeys-central-bank-we-should-be-watching

 

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The One Chart That Explains the Massive Risk of Investing in Gold & Gold Stocks

The One Chart That Explains the Massive Risk of Investing in Gold & Gold Stocks | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Why do commercial investment advisers always tell you that gold (& silver) and PM assets are all massively risky? Here's the one chart that explains why.

 

Viewing the chart above, a six-year old child could tell you that investing in physical gold and gold mining stocks (as indicated by the AMEX HUI gold bugs index) yielded returns from 2001 to 2012 far superior to the returns of the US S&P 500 Index over the same time period. In fact, the truth of this statement is so self-evident, that if this same child was asked what asset classes he should have been invested in over the past decade by viewing the above chart, the simplicity of that question might lead him to think that one is asking a trick question. So why is it that all the leading Wall Street investment firms stated during the visible onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 (versus the real onset of the global financial crisis quite a few years earlier) that gold was one of the riskiest assets in which one could possible invest? The simple answer, of course, is that if they were the ones involved in the scam to take gold and silver prices down back then, then certainly they would not tell you that the steep, rapid (but short-lived) drop in gold/silver prices was a massive buying opportunity. However, if a six-year old can see what is so obvious, then why should a man of Warren Buffet’s prominence continue to slander gold and why does his right-hand man, Charlie Munger, make idiotic statements like“gold is a great thing to sew in your garments if you’re a Jewish family in 1939” but not to own, instead of just stating the truth that “physical gold (and physical silver) was one of the best assets to build wealth since 2001”? And if a six-year old can look at the above chart and immediately know that he or she should have beeen invested in gold and gold assets, why, according to the World Gold Council, is still only 1%, or $146 billion of the $146 trillion investable global assets, invested in gold, and 9.1% invested in money markets, 48.7% in fixed income, 37.2% in equities and 4.0% in alternative investments? (though these most recent statistics are from the end of 2010, it is doubtful that these statistics have changed much in the past two years.)

Hal's insight:

Click through for the full piece and the larger chart.

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Nichols muses on gold past, present and future

Nichols muses on gold past, present and future | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Lawrence Williams:

 

Specialist precious metals analyst, Jeff Nichols, who is currently on the bullish side of the argument for gold, although he avers he is not actually a ‘gold bug’, has been involved in the sector now for 40 years having started his career at Citibank in 1973.

 

His specific interest in gold began when he was tasked by senior management to write a report on the future role of gold in the monetary system – gold was then at $120 an ounce having risen from its fixed price of $35 from when President Nixon had removed the dollar’s convertibility to gold two years earlier.

 

At the time he felt that the gold price would rise – not because of any likely return to the monetary system, but because the price had been artificially repressed for so long beforehand.

 

Indeed, few would have believed at that time that the yellow metal would see such a spectacular rise as it did ahead of its 1980 peak and crash, and after the crash perhaps only the true believers felt that it would recover again to the seemingly dizzy $1920 new height achieved a mere one and a quarter years ago.  ...

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The Golden Truth: Any Questions As To WHY Germany Wants Its Gold?

The Golden Truth: Any Questions As To WHY Germany Wants Its Gold? | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

One thing that has taken me by surprise are the sudden and unexpected developments that have instantly thrust the physical vs. paper issue into the forefront.  The Bundesbank event followed by the U.S. Mint announcement has made a much wider audience more open minded about the issues surrounding credibility of bullion bank gold/silver depositories and the ability to verify whether or not the gold/silver that is supposed to be in those depositories can be fully accounted for on an allocated basis. 

Certainly the circumstances surrounding the Bundesbank's decision and the length of time being given to fulfill it's request adds credibility to the view that western Central Bank and bullion bank depositories do not have the amount of gold they are supposed to be holding on behalf of others...

Hal's insight:

Click through for the video and the full post.

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Study shows actual gold cash costs are 50% more than what is reported | MINING.com

Study shows actual gold cash costs are 50% more than what is reported | MINING.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
$1,170 vs $773.

 

The Australian (paywall) reports the actual cost of mining gold is over 50% higher than the cash costs gold producers disclose in financial statements.

 

Analyst Stephen Thomas of Bell Potter, an Australian brokerage, found that "the average total production cost was $1,170 an ounce, compared with an average reported cash cost of $773 an ounce." ...

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The Incredible Roadmap To $25,000 Gold

The Incredible Roadmap To $25,000 Gold | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today 40-year veteran, Robert Fitzwilson, lays out the incredible roadmap for $25,000 gold.  Fitzwilson, who is founder of The Portola Group, wrote the following piece exclusively for King World News which contains a powerful chart that he believes points to a staggering, “... long-term value of over $25,000 per ounce of gold.”


... “The US has devoured its reserves of the metal since the end of WWII, while at the same time the uses have mushroomed in electronics and medicine.  Silver tends to be used in small quantities which are not to be recycled.  We rely on annual production and reclamation for what we consume.  You can reach this conclusion simply by looking at burgeoning demand and struggling supply, although the debasement of paper currencies and continuing accumulated debts add to the extreme undervaluation. ...

Hal's insight:

Click over for the full piece from King World News and the chart.

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Gold May Now Be Poised For A Staggering $600+ Surge

Gold May Now Be Poised For A Staggering $600+ Surge | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

On the heels of the announcement of Germany seeking to repatriate their gold, today top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick told King World News gold may now be set up for a staggering $600+ move.  Fitzpatrick has been incredibly accurate regarding his forecasts for both gold and silver. 

Hal's insight:

Click over for the charts and comments King World News has posted.

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