Gold and What Moves it.
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Gold and What Moves it.
Tracking all things that relate to and affect the price of gold.
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Breaking Open the Piggy Bank | Michael Ashton | Safehaven.com

Breaking Open the Piggy Bank | Michael Ashton | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Michael Ashton We have one month in the books in 2013 already; my, how time flies when you're having fun! But the fun may not last much longer.

 

I have spent lots of time, over the last year, answering the question "why hasn't inflation responded to QE?" My response has been that it has: core inflation rose from 0.6% to 2.3% from October 2010 to January 2012, rising for a record-tying fifteen consecutive months - a feat that last happened in 1973-74, as official prices adjusted to catch up for being frozen during wage and price controls. By a bunch of measures, that was an acceleration of core inflation that was unprecedented in modern U.S. economic history. As I wrote at the time (in "Inflation: As 'Contained' As An Arrow From A Bow"), the only reason to defer panic was that Housing inflation was overdue to level out and decelerate. Fortunately, it did.

 

But, as I've written extensively recently, that blessing has been rescinded and the question of "why hasn't inflation responded to QE" will shortly be moot. In the next couple of months, core inflation will begin to re-accelerate, driven by the pass-through of rising home prices into rents. In our view, the best we can hope for is that core inflation only reaches 2.6% this year. Absent a change from the historical relationship between home prices and rents, some 40% of the core consumption basket is going to be rising at 3.5% or better by late this year.

So, when will markets get a whiff of this?

 

We are primarily motivated by valuations, and we are patient investors ...

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Will QE Affect The Effect? | ContraryInvestor | Safehaven.com

Will QE Affect The Effect? | ContraryInvestor | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

When global central banks began to expand their balance sheets in an attempt to ward off the Great Recession of 2008-2009, their efforts were unprecedented. Never before had we seen so much money creation occur simultaneously on a global basis. At the time, planned central bank quantitative easings (printing money) were well defined in terms of time over which they would occur and magnitude of dollars/foreign currency involved in each QE iteration.

 

That was then. Despite significant global government borrowing (US Federal debt alone has doubled since 2006) and global central banks printing over $11 trillion since 2008, global economic growth is tepid. In fact, this unprecedented global government borrowing over the last four years has necessitated tax increases in many countries, including the US. The US has sold this as a tax on the wealthy. But when looking at the reality of US Government budget and forward spending projections, there is absolutely no way our federal government can fund its current spending and promises trajectory without very meaningful middle class tax increases to come. Shhh!!! The politicians just have not told anyone yet.

 

As a bit of a bookend to global central bank balance sheet expansions, we've now come 180 degrees from where we were in early 2009. No longer are central bank quantitative easings defined either in terms of time or magnitude - several central banks have recently promised unlimited money printing over an indefinite period of time.

 

This is exactly what the US Federal Reserve continues to say and do four years into our current economic recovery. The election of Abe in Japan a month ago cements the fact that the Bank of Japan will join in unlimited money printing. The Bank of England is on the cusp of another round of money stimulus. And despite the recent appearance of calm in Europe, banking system recapitalization has not even begun - it will be quite the eye opener in terms of European Central Bank balance sheet expansion to come. Four years after the Great Recession reportedly ended, global central bank actions are pushing the definitional limit of "unprecedented". ...

Hal's insight:

Interesting piece worth thinking about in regard to savings rate and central bank QE. click through for the full piece.

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Gold price rigging is as old as gold itself | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Gold price rigging is as old as gold itself | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

"The problem with central banking has been mainly the old problem of power -- it corrupts.

 

"Central bankers are supposed to be more capable of restraint than ordinary politicians, and maybe some are, but they are not always or even often capable of the necessary restraint. One market intervention encourages another and another and increases the political pressure to keep intervening to benefit special interests rather than the general interest -- to benefit especially the financial interests, the banking and investment banking industries. These interventions, subsidies to special interests, increasingly are needed to prevent the previous imbalances from imploding.

 

"And so we have come to an era of daily market interventions by central banks -- so much so that the main purpose of central banking now is to prevent ordinary markets from happening at all.

 

"Central banking controls the value of all labor, services, and real goods, and yet it is conducted almost entirely in secret -- because, in choosing winners and losers in the economy, advancing infinite amounts of money to some participants in the markets but not to others, administering the ultimate patronage, central banking cannot survive scrutiny.

 

"Yet the secrecy of central banking now is taken for granted even in nominally democratic countries."

Hal's insight:

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JPMorgan Sees Gold At $1,800 By Mid 2013 As South Africa “In Crisis” And “Escalating Instability” In Middle East | Zero Hedge

JPMorgan Sees Gold At $1,800 By Mid 2013 As South Africa “In Crisis” And “Escalating Instability” In Middle East | Zero Hedge | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

... JPMorgan Sees Gold At $1,800 By Mid 2013 As South Africa “In Crisis” And “Escalating Instability” In Middle East  

 

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said gold will rise to $1,800 an ounce by the middle of 2013, with the mining industry in South Africa “in crisis,” according to Bloomberg.

 

South Africa, once the largest gold producer, faces industrial unrest, high wage inflation and adverse regulatory changes for local mines, Allan Cooke, an analyst at the bank, said in a report dated today.

 

Gold will get a boost from prospects of more stimuli from the U.S., Japan and Europe, the potential for escalating instability in the Middle East and low interest rates, according to the report.

 

Geopolitical risk from the Middle East and the risk of war between ...

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oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Crisis and Opportunity

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Crisis and Opportunity | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

That which is unsustainable will pass away and be replaced with a more sustainable arrangement. That is the crisis and the opportunity.


"Never let a crisis go to waste" need not be the exclusive agenda of the Power Elite/ parasitic Aristocracy: it could be the agenda for the rest of us, i.e. the debt-serfs. If you are unfamiliar with the neofeudal/neocolonial financialization model, please read The E.U., Neofeudalism and the Neocolonial-Financialization Model (May 24, 2012). The same dynamics apply to the American Empire and domestic economy. ...
Hal's insight:

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The Bundesbank's Gold: Is Germany Preparing for Global Monetary Collapse?

The Bundesbank's Gold: Is Germany Preparing for Global Monetary Collapse? | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
 What's the significance of Germany repatriating some of its gold...?AS YOU'VE probably heard, the German central bank announced it will begin withdrawing part of its massive gold holdings from the...
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QB Projects Shadow Gold Price To Be $15,000 In One Year!

QB Projects Shadow Gold Price To Be $15,000 In One Year! | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Paul Brodsky tells King World News:

 

“... At $2.7 trillion in base money, our call was for $10,000 gold.  As base money is now rising, from additional QE, the shadow gold price should rise to about $15,000 in roughly one year’s time.

 

That’s not necessarily a call.  Gold could be worth much more than that, or it may never get there.  That simply takes the Bretton Woods system and applies it to where gold would be trading today.  As to the timing, there are some recent developments I find very interesting that may lead to an advance in precious metals prices in the near-term.

 

The pain of holding our ground has no doubt been intense.  The good news is that we believe for the first time there are important macroeconomic signs that a fundamental shift in the global monetary ..." 

Hal's insight:

15K in a year? I don't know about that, though of course I recognize their calling it the Shadow gold price.

 

One thing is certain. QE is going to infinity.

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Key Charts, Propaganda, Gold, Silver & The Ongoing Collapse

Key Charts, Propaganda, Gold, Silver & The Ongoing Collapse | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Egon von Greyerz tells King World News:

 

“A couple of days ago Swiss banks came out with a major PR campaign offering allocated gold and silver accounts.  Well, Eric, that’s nothing new, they have always done that.  The banks are worried that more and more investors are taking gold outside of the banking system.

 

So now the banks are telling investors these allocated accounts are safe and would not be included in any bankruptcy.  But the bottom line is this gold and silver will be encumbered, and maybe even owned by central banks who will claim it back one day.

 

We must remember history.  Look at Lehman, MF Global, Sentinel.  These companies, which all collapsed, had allocated and segregated assets.  These assets were used as security for their credit lines.  Therefore investors did not get their money back.

 

The two major banks leading this campaign in Switzerland, UBS and Credit Suisse, represent 600% of Swiss GDP.  This exposes the entire Swiss banking industry.  So investors should not participate in that program.”

Hal's insight:

I clipped something that really popped out to me. Click over for the surprising charts and rest of the interview.

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US Mint Jan Gold coin sales hit 140,000 ounces

The Mint resumed silver-coin sales on Jan. 28 after suspending them for more than a week because of a lack of inventory.

 

WASHINGTON(BullionStreet): US Mint announced record gold and silver coin sales in the first month of 2013.

 

The mint said American Eagle gold coins enjoyed their high sales of 140,000 ounces in January ,the most since July 2010, when 152,000 ounces were sold.

 

The US Mint also witnesses impressive silver coin sales as demand increased to the point that the mint had to suspend sales of its popular Silver Eagle bullion coins for ...

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A Few Minutes With Peter Grandich - January 30, 2013

Episode 55 - A weekly discussion with one of the most respected market forecasters. Peter Grandich has accurately predicted market tops and bottoms for over ...
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Nine Reasons Why You Must Own Gold

Gold has been real money (medium of exchange and a store of value) for over 3,000 years. It is still real money.Gold has no counter-party risk. It is not someone else’s liability. It has intrinsic value that is recognized around the world.ALL paper money systems have eventually failed. The intrinsic value of paper money is effectively zero; and all paper money has, throughout history, eventually devalued to zero.
Hal's insight:

Click through for the remaining six bullet points. Probably nothing new to you if you've been following gold for a while but if you're new, you might find it instructful.

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Rick Ackerman: Why isn't gold higher? | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Rick Ackerman: Why isn't gold higher? | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

9:50p ET Wednesday, January 30,2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

 

Market analyst Rick Ackerman's new essay, "Why Isn't Gold Higher?," is actually another salvo in the sometimes contentious argument between inflationists and deflationists, which isn't GATA's fight. But Ackerman's essay still is delightful for ratifying some of GATA's premises:

 

1) Gold futures aren't reliable claims on gold.

 

2) Paper claims to gold have been diverting investment demand away from real metal, just as all commodity futures and derivatives long have been diverting investment demand for inflation hedges away from real things and into paper -- such diversion, suppressing commodity prices and concealing inflation, having become the primary purpose of futures and derivatives, as the British economist Peter Warburton argued in 2001 in his seminal essay, "The Debasement of World Currency: It Is Inflation But Not as We Know It": ...

Hal's insight:

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SBV says Gold not an essential commodity

SBV says Gold not an essential commodity | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Vietnam Gold Traders Association has called for the removal of the 10 per cent tariff on gold jewellery products which have more than 80 per cent gold content.

 

HANOI(BullionStreet): Vietnam's central bank, The State Bank of Vietnam said gold is not an essential item and the price difference between domestic and global prices had not impacted the macro-economy.

 

According to SBV governor Nguyen Van Binh the bank will sell gold at good prices to support when the gold market experiences unfavorable changes, such as a liquidity problem, only to support it and not to stabilize prices.

 

Gold prices in Vietnam climbed upto a high of VND4 million per tael higher than the world’s levels. ...

Hal's insight:

My thoughts: ROFL

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WHY IT’S HARD TO JUSTIFY PRECIOUS METAL - The Prospector Blog

WHY IT’S HARD TO JUSTIFY PRECIOUS METAL - The Prospector Blog | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
TheProspectorSite.com exists to provide proof via current events and history that precious metals are one of the best ways to preserve and grow your wealth.

 

It’s hard to explain the value of physical silver and gold to someone clueless. I often hear people ask, “Why is it so important to buy PM (precious metal)” or “why do you buy silver?” The very fact a person asks such a question tells me they’re not ready for PM, not personally at least. This is okay. Each person first has to come to terms that our economic recovery is an illusion before giving an ounce of thought to gold. I find myself comparing it to a gravely ill loved one who is imminently facing death. Like a life ending, the transition of currency back to sound money (hard assets) is a natural occurrence often repeated throughout history. ...

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No-money-down mortgages are back

No-money-down mortgages are back | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

By AnnaMaria Andriotis

 

Some affluent buyers are getting the keys to their new home without putting a penny down.

 

It’s 100% financing—the same strategy that pushed many homeowners into foreclosure during the housing bust. Banks say these loans are safer: They’re almost exclusively being offered to clients with sizable assets, and they often require two forms of collateral—the house and a portion of the client’s investment portfolio in lieu of a traditional cash down payment. ...

Hal's insight:

Just great. Haven't we seen this tragic movie already?

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Jumping exports give silver impetus in India

Jumping exports give silver impetus in India | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

MUMBAI (MINEWEB) - 

 

With the Indian government cracking down on gold, the metal's poor cousin, silver, has shot into the limelight. Silver jewellery exports are expected to lead this fiscal year, given the geographical expansion into the markets of CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) and eastern Europe, both of which have benefited silver jewellery.

 

Silver exports are likely to jump 30% this financial year in India, against $797 million a year ago. In December alone, provisional exports of silver jewellery touched $73.85 million.

 

According to provisional data from the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, exports of silver jewellery during April to December 2012, jumped ...

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This day-to-day noise is aggravating and, without question, wears down the average investor - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily

This day-to-day noise is aggravating and, without question, wears down the average investor - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
The new technical fund longs that rushed into the market on Wednesday got their heads handed to them

 

Ed Steer:

 

"... 

The last couple of trading days have not been kind to precious metals investors.  The obvious price intervention in both the metals themselves and their associated equities, shows you just how desperate the powers-that-be have become.  They're doing everything they can to keep the average investor as far away from the precious metals [and salvation] as they possibly can.  The message they sent in the last couple of days is..."stay away, or you'll get burned."

 

"This day-to-day noise is aggravating and, without question, wears down the average investor.  But, underneath the surface in the precious metal markets, there are big changes going on that we just aren't privy to...and it's a good bet that they're tied in with the economic and political changes that are engulfing the entire planet at the moment.

 

"The only thing that is certain, is that this situation can't go on forever...and I'd bet serious money that when the end does come, it will come suddenly...and probably on a weekend or overnight when no one is in a position to take advantage of it.  You will either be all the way in...or all the way out when that moment arrives. ..."

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Trader Dan's Market Views: Silver - Nothing Doin' Yet

Trader Dan's Market Views: Silver - Nothing Doin' Yet | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Yesterday silver looked as if it was setting up to make another test run at stubborn overhead resistance near the $32.50 level, the top of its recent trading range. Today - well, to put it bluntly, "nothin' doin'".

The ferocity of the retreat away from yesterday's high is a bit surprising to me given the big push higher yesterday. A couple of things - end of the month positioning is being seen in quite a bit of the markets that I regularly trade today and that is causing some pretty wild swings in price.

Secondly, the continued meltdown in the mining sector shares (HUI and XAU) is completely undermining strength in the metals over at the Comex. Any time would-be bulls get ready to make their move into the metals, they take one look at the HUI or the XAU and then go back to sleep. There is no reason to chase precious metal prices higher as long as the mining shares continue to reek.

The HUI is on track for its worst monthly close in THREE YEARS. ...

Hal's insight:

Click over for the full analysis by Trader Dan.

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India fiscal deficit widens on gold imports

The deficit during April-December period is almost 79 percent of the budgetary estimate of Rs.5.14 lakh crore for the entire financial year ending March 31, 2013.

 

NEW DELHI(BullionStreet): Justifying government's concerns over climbing gold imports, India's fiscal deficit widened to Rs.4.07 lakh crore (around $76 billion) in the first three quarters of the current financial year.

 

The deficit during April-December period is almost 79 percent of the budgetary estimate of Rs.5.14 lakh crore for the entire financial year ending March 31, 2013.

 

As the government struggles to rein in a raging current account deficit that is likely to cross 4% of the national economic output this fiscal, it has increased the import duty on the precious metal thrice since last year. ...

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Germany and Gold Holdings

Germany and Gold Holdings | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Gold is not just a mineral with little industrial use and importance in the international monetary system, but is still considered a measure of wealth throughout the world and holds an important role in the global monetary system.

 

By Heide B. Malhotra
Suspicions are being voiced by market analysts, economists, and a number of researchers and political experts that Germany has lost confidence in the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and France, and it’s putting them on notice concerning the gold they hold for Germany. 

A January 16 article posted on the Gain, Pains & Capital website asked, “Why would Germany suddenly decide that it wants to change a policy it has had in place for over 30 years? … How did it go from wanting to audit its reserves to actually removing them from the NY Fed’s care?” The article then stated “In simple terms, Germany has just announced that it doesn’t trust the US Fed.”

At present, Germany holds 31% of its gold in Frankfurt, 45% in New York, 13% in London, and 11% in Paris. By December 31, 2020, it will hold 50% of its gold in Frankfurt and reduce its holdings in New York by 8% and in Paris by the full 11%, according to a Jan. 16 announcement by ...

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Belkin - We’re Facing A 1987 Selloff & Eventual Hyperinflation

Belkin - We’re Facing A 1987 Selloff & Eventual Hyperinflation | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today the man who counsels prominent hedge funds, investment banks, institutional money managers, mutual funds, pension funds, and high net worth individuals across the globe, told King World News that he believes we are facing a 1987 type scenario where the markets will get badly shaken.  Belkin, President of Belkin Limited, also believes we are eventually headed for a destructive hyperinflation where gold will have an extended upside move. 


... “The markets are so overextended.  The markets have been going up since 2009, for almost 4 years now.  We need to have a selloff, that’s a healthy thing for the market.  The other thing I would like to say is sell rallies.  When the market is going up you buy the dips and the trend bails you out.

 

When the market is going down you sell aggressively into these brief, two to three day rallies that we’ve had, and that’s what I’m telling my institutional investors to do.” ...


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Ghana officially denies Iran Gold deal

Ghana officially denies Iran Gold deal | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
For the first time after the controversy over gold transactions with Iran, Ghanaian government officially denied any involvement in the deal.

 

ACCRA(BullionStreet): For the first time after the controversy over gold transactions with Iran, Ghanaian government officially denied any involvement in the deal.

 

An official Ghana government statement denied claims that it was engaged in transaction with Iran that requires the discharge of financial commitments to the country in gold. ...

Hal's insight:

Do you believe it? I'm not so sure I do. But I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

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Can Gold retain 2,500 yr old legacy as store of wealth?

Can Gold retain 2,500 yr old legacy as store of wealth? | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
There is no denying that gold has fulfilled its role as a store of wealth for the last 2500 years.

 

LONDON(BullionStreet): Central banks of the world's biggest economies are all in a 'battle' to devalue their currencies. By 'printing' enormous quantities of money through quantitative easing, central banks are aiming to debase the value of their currency and therefore increase the competitiveness of their industry overseas.

 

This should drive (a little – they hope) inflation which should motivate consumers to spend and invest. That is the theory.

 

In practice, however, this is a very risky attempt to manipulate the value of fiat currencies, which could lead to a severe currency and inflationary crisis and consumers lose ...

Hal's insight:

2,500 yrs? that must be a blip in monetary history. Or so Ben Bernanke would like us to think.

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January Jobs Data Will Disappoint; Fed to Keep Monetizing Debt | Michael Pento | Safehaven.com

January Jobs Data Will Disappoint; Fed to Keep Monetizing Debt | Michael Pento | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Michael Pento:

 

The recent spate of better data on initial jobless claims has caused bond yields to rise, stock prices to rally and gold shares to tumble in the last few days. For the 6th time since 2010, an oasis of improving economic data (that has proven to be ephemeral each time in the past) is once again giving investors the false signal of a robust and sustainable recovery. This has in turn caused investors to once again wonder when the Fed would finally stop buying assets from banks and raise interest rates, which have been at zero percent for over four years.

 

But the data on initial claims has been distorted by seasonal adjustments at the Labor Department. On an adjusted basis, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 19th dropped to 335k, which was the lowest level since January 2008. However, the raw data offers a different take on the labor condition. The unadjusted claims totaled 436,766 in the week ending January 19. That was 20k HIGHER than the 416k claims reported in the comparable week of 2012. The question is, how can initial claims be higher this year than the same week as last year; yet at the same time register the lowest level in 5 years?

 

Other data on the jobs front confirms the view that the labor market is not improving substantially whatsoever. From the January Empire State Manufacturing Report released last week: "Labor market conditions remained weak, with the indexes for both the number of employees and the average workweek remaining below zero for a fourth month in a row."

 

And then there is this from the Philly Fed's Manufacturing Survey: "Labor market conditions at reporting firms deteriorated this month. The employment index, at -5.2, fell from -0.2 in December. The percentage of firms reporting decreases in employment (16 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (11 percent). Firms also indicated a decrease in the average workweek compared with last month."

 

Don't expect a NFP number that is much better than the 150k anticipated by the market. In fact, the odds are better for a significant miss to the downside. ...

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Jon Smith's curator insight, March 23, 2013 12:45 PM

There has been better data on initial jobless claims lately. This is not however neccesarily a good thing. The reason is that investors get the false sign from this that the economy is booming. Information has been distorted by the Labor Department. Things are not significantly improving as other data has shown. My opinion is that graphs, data and statistics can be extremely beneficial but should always be looked at with caution. Raw data does not show reasons why and is not a full representation of conditions. I would suggest things such as interviewing random people in the community and ask them how the jobless rate is based on the people they know and its effects on them.

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You are in great danger if you don`t own any gold - Faber - Mineweb.com

You are in great danger if you don`t own any gold - Faber - Mineweb.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Adrian Ash:


The PRICE of GOLD held onto most of yesterday's $15 jump at $1676 per ounce Thursday morning in London, ticking back as Asian and European stock markets fell after Wednesday's surprise drop in US economic output figures.

Silver also eased back, but held at 1-week highs above $32 per ounce after rising yesterday in gold's "slipstream" as one bullion-bank analyst put it.

"This Friday's [non-farm US payroll] report remains crucial," says a note from Swiss bank UBS – currently encouraging its institutional clients to buy gold outright rather than as a credit-risk deposit.

"Some adjustments to [gold] positioning are likely to emerge" after Wednesday's 'no change' decision from the US Federal Reserve on zero interest rates and quantitative easing.

"But overall, the gold market should resume subdued trading," says UBS, "as is typical ahead of a key event" such as the monthly jobs report. ...

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