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Gold and What Moves it.
Tracking all things that relate to and affect the price of gold.
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Charles Hugh Smith: The United States of Delusion

Charles Hugh Smith: The United States of Delusion | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

The irony is that clinging to delusion rather than face the necessity of deep cuts in borrow-and-squander budgets will lead to the involuntary reset of the entire system, depriving every vested interest of their share of the swag.


We are living in the United States of Delusion. The delusion has four key sources:1. We can borrow-print-and-spend our way to prosperity when debt and fiscal/monetary stimulus are yielding ever more marginal returns:

The Dangerous Blindspots of Clueless Keynesians (January 2, 2013) The Keynesian model is a Cargo Cult, mired in a distant, romanticized past where Central Planning, intervention and manipulation were solutions rather than the root of the economy's fatal disease.

2. The risks of this fatal fiscal delusion are masked by a complicit Mainstream Media and a perception-management, manipulation-dependent Central State and Federal Reserve.

Spoiled Teenager Syndrome (January 3, 2013) Masking risk, cost and consequence creates an illusory world that eventually crashes on the unforgiving rocks of reality. ...
Hal's insight:

I wish that DC would read and heed this man.

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Trader Dan's Market Views: Commodity Index Back to Where it Started the Year

Trader Dan's Market Views: Commodity Index Back to Where it Started the Year | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Don't you just love the Fed? Are you not glad they provide such a calming, soothing, effect on our finanical markets? Are you not glad they are there to provide balance to the unruly animal spirits that send prices careening wildy in one direction or the other?

The above questions are obviously meant to be highly sarcastic, filled with a strong measure of contempt and disgust towards these pestilential meddlers.

I submit that the Federal Reserve is the source of the all the wild volatility and the cause of these nearly incessant mad buying and selling binges that have left the general public suspect of the US stock market and opting against investing in it.

The Fed simply cannot keep its mitts off of the market ...

Hal's insight:

Dan is a voice of reason. Click over for the rest of his thoughts.

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Turk - A Black Swan Event, Global Monetary Reset & Chaos

Turk - A Black Swan Event, Global Monetary Reset & Chaos | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today James Turk spoke with King World News about a “Black Swan” event, the coming global monetary reset, and the incredible price action that KWN readers can expect to see in gold and silver over the next 60 days.Here is what Turk had to say in this fascinating and powerful interview:  “What we saw in 2012, Eric, is a good example of what I have been calling a ‘managed retreat.’  The central planners were out in force - particularly in the fourth quarter - trying to keep a lid on precious metal prices, and they managed to accomplish that to some extent.  Nevertheless, despite their best efforts, last year gold rose 7.0%, and silver climbed 8.2% in US dollar terms.


“In fact, gold and silver were higher against all the world's major currencies last year, which is an important point.  National currencies are being destroyed by misguided government policies.  So while the purchasing power of these currencies is being eroded, the best governments can do and the most they can expect is to try keep the gold price from rising faster than the rate at which the purchasing power of currencies is being debased.  

 

"This battle is what the phrase ‘managed retreat’ is all about, and it is indeed a retreat.  The central planners are losing the war, as evidenced by the fact that gold has now risen twelve years in a row at an average annual rate of 16.8% per annum. ...


Hal's insight:

Turk see's a monetary reset coming in a year or two. Won't that be fun.

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Eric De Groot: If You Can't Stand The Heat, Get Out of the Kitchen

Eric De Groot: If You Can't Stand The Heat, Get Out of the Kitchen | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

While I wouldn't rush into a crowded movie theater and scream FIRE after reading this morning's labor report, I wouldn't describe it as steady either. The headline should be modified to say hiring and unemployment 'steady', as long as steady implies underperformance (from the previous economic cycle (chart 1) and deterioration (chart 2 & 3); this headline would likely be too scary for a public yet to be confronted by the next round of horse manure called the debt ceiling debate.

Whether the public gets it or not, something is definitely wrong.  Long-time Insight readers recognize this something as the enormous and unstable debt burden of the Western economies and failing confidence that central planners can control it without social and political consequences.  It's also known as the Sovereign debt crisis to the global community. 

Can central planners control the debt crisis?  The steady rise in the price of gold despite periodic attempts to shoot the messenger of bad news since 2001 suggests that it's unlikely.  Those heavily ...

Hal's insight:

Eric has some great charts so click over and read the rest.

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Trillion Dollar Coins: The Ultimate Debt Ceiling End-Around?

Trillion Dollar Coins: The Ultimate Debt Ceiling End-Around? | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

With President Obama having kicked off debt ceiling negotiations by vowing not to negotiate over the debt ceiling, a new option for paying off the nation’s considerable tab is gaining momentum with cheeky fiscal and monetary wonks.

 

It goes like this: Should Congress fail to extend the U.S. debt limit — reached again on Dec. 31 — the president could ask the Treasury to begin printing trillion dollar coins (in a process explained mostly seriously by Jim Pethokoukis on his American Enterprise Institute blog), a number of which could then be put toward fulfilling debt obligations in the event new legislation stalls in Congress.

 

While there are laws in place to regulate how much paper, gold, silver or copper currency can be circulated by the government, there is nothing so clearly stated when it comes to platinum. That door open, the Treasury could have the U.S. Mint melt and mold a few trillion dollars of it ...

Hal's insight:

Hmm... Do you suppose this is being thought up at the moment because platinum is trading below gold by almost $100? Or could it be because the people of the world aren't holding as much of it personally? After all, who do you suppose holds the most platinum? It is after all an industrial metal.

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The U.S. Mint had a rather strange, but eye-opening, sales report yesterday. - Ed Steer

The U.S. Mint had a rather strange, but eye-opening, sales report yesterday. - Ed Steer | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

... The U.S. Mint had a rather strange, but eye-opening, sales report yesterday.  They sold an absolutely stunning 50,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with an equally impressive 8,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...but zero silver eagles.  If you're wondering how this can be possible on the first sales day of the new year, it's my guess that these gold sales actually occurred in December, but were pushed into January in order not to make the sales month look as good as it obviously was.

 

The bullion dealers all over the U.S.A. were reporting almost record sales figures in December...and the U.S Mint sales in gold, although strong, didn't come close to matching the rhetoric from the dealers.  Now I know why.  When we see the first true sales numbers in January for gold...and especially silver eagles, they should be equally as impressive.  However, I find it very disturbing that the mint is now obviously playing games with their sales numbers.  But, having said that, this is the third December/January time period in a row where I've seen them shove December sales into January.  You have to wonder if there's any adult supervision going on at the mint. ...

Hal's insight:

Fascinating, don't you think?

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oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Spoiled Teenager Syndrome

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Spoiled Teenager Syndrome | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Is masking risk, cost and consequence a strategy that leads to success? No; it is a pathway to catastrophic failure.


What are the core characteristics of the spoiled teenager? The conventional view is that the spoiled teen "gets everything they want." In my view, the key characteristic of Spoiled Teenager Syndrome is that risk, cost and consequence have been masked.

This is a systemic point of view, meaning that the masking of risk, cost and consequence help us understand not just the eventual failure of spoiled teenagers but the eventual failure of every group or enterprise that masks risk, cost and consequence as a strategy to paper over an unsustainable Status Quo. This includes families, companies, states and nations.

The spoiled teen is spoiled precisely because the risk, cost and consequence of their choices and actions are suppressed by Mommy and/or Daddy. Since Mommy and/or Daddy diligently cover the cost and mask the eventual consequence of Junior's unrealistic expectations and poor choices, the risks created by Junior's choices and lifestyle are also masked. Junior naturally assumes Mommy and/or Daddy will bail him out of every scrape and "make it right" at no cost to Junior. ...
Hal's insight:

And now it makes sense. Click over for the rest of Mr. Smith's piece.

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My Blog

My Blog | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today 40-year veteran, Robert Fitzwilson, wrote the following piece exclusively for King World News.  Fitzwilson, who is founder of The Portola Group, has two absolutely fascinating charts of gold and the monetary base, which clearly illustrate how dramatically undervalued gold is relative to the massive fiat money base.


“Potential energy is a scientific term that relates to real world phenomena, many of which we encounter in our daily lives.  Gravity is a prime example.  If you elevate a bowling ball to the top of the table, you have performed work.  If the bowling ball were to fall to the ground, the impact it might make is one measure of the potential energy transferred to it through your efforts.

 

Potential energy is also relative.  From the table perspective, there is simply a ball sitting on it.  There is no potential energy relative to the table, only to the floor.  When stopping to ponder this, it made me think about the price of gold relative to the massive increase in the monetary base. ...

 

... As gold bottomed early last decade, the value of gold was extraordinarily undervalued relative to the monetary base.  As gold move steadily higher, it’s relative value declined when compared to a steadily increasing, but non-exponential rise in the monetary base.  The line then plunged in late 2008 as the monetary base exploded to the upside.  The explosive growth in the monetary base has never abated. ...

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Gold Analysis 2013 « Jim Sinclair's Mineset

Gold Analysis 2013 « Jim Sinclair's Mineset | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed. ...

Hal's insight:

Click over for the full chart and the rest of the analysis.

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Egypt halts Centamin gold exports | MINING.com

Egypt halts Centamin gold exports | MINING.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Centamin was the only large producer in the country

 

Only days after the Egyptian authorities announcedthey will boost the mining industry in the country, a 400 kg shipment of Centamin’s (LON:CEY), (TSX:CEE) gold was prevented from leaving the nation, at least until the company receives a permit from the national petroleum ministry, reports Ahramonline.

 

The Alexandria-based company, which is Egypt's largest gold producer, had a similar problem in October last year, after a local administrative court ruled the company’s concession on its flagship Sukari gold mine should be revoked. There was no written judgment to go with the decision and Centamin was unable to get details. ...

Hal's insight:

Taking a lead from China on trying to keep all that yellow stuff inside the borders?

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RBI to promote new Gold schemes to deter physical demand

RBI to promote new Gold schemes to deter physical demand | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
India is the world's largest gold consumer and it is estimated that about 10% of the world's gold is in India's possession.

 

NEW DELHI(BullionStreet): Following government's measures to curb rising gold demand, India's central bank also suggested different ways to moderate the demand for gold imports.

 

According to the draft report of a panel constituted by the RBI, there is a need to moderate gold import as the insatiable appetite for the yellow metal could jeopardize economic stability.

 

The working group set up by the RBI to study issues related to gold imports and gold loans by NBFCs, said financial products designed to provide returns equivalent to that of the precious metal could divert investors from buying gold, it said.

 

"These products will, if designed properly, help to monetise a portion of the privately held stock of gold as well as financialise the incremental demand for gold," it said.

 

Policymakers are rattled by the soaring gold demand, which has widened the current account deficit to a record 5.4% of the GDP, it said. Investors have been chasing it as other investments, including equities and fixed deposit returns , turned adverse. ...

Hal's insight:

Rattled by soaring demand of gold... Think on that people. Why would policy makers and the central bank be rattled by citizens owning so much gold? Do you think they would be rattled by citizens holding large quantities of the nation's fiat currency? Hmmmmm?

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Credit Suisse terms Gold a "wounded bull"

Credit Suisse cut its forecast for gold by over 5 per cent to $1,740 per oz from $1,840 and that of silver to $32.20 an ounce from $33.10 an ounce.

 

In a statement the bank said "If our central macroeconomic case (the acute phase of the global crisis is probably over; slow improvement in growth through second half of 2013) proves to be correct, then the relative appeal of gold is likely to diminish as fear trades fade."

 

The bank expects ample supply due to growth in primary producers in Latin America and the United States; as a byproduct of expanding zinc-lead operations in Latin America, Turkey, Russia and China; and potentially from large new gold-silver and copper-gold projects such as Pascua-Lama and Oyu-Tolgoi. ...

Hal's insight:

"Global crisis is probably over"? Really? That reminds me of a phrase, "Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water."

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The Cliff Agreement And Gold

The Cliff Agreement And Gold | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Dave Kranzler:

 

"... Per my thesis above, the Fiscal Cliff deal will now lead to a much higher Treasury debt limit ceiling - if not the complete elimination of it, which has been proposed by Obama - and a much higher level of QE. How do you invest knowing this ahead of time?

 

The answer is in gold. Gold has already given an 82% reward to those who started buying back in 2000. I don't think anyone's stock portfolio has appreciated 82% since 1/1/2000. Gold has at least another 82% reward ahead of it vs. the dollar. This chart shows just how bullish the set up is for gold to move a lot higher right now ..."

Hal's insight:

Click over for the full analysis and the charts.

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Kicking the Can

Kicking the Can | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Ground Hog Day. Kicking the can. ...

 

... But in many cases, the can is kicked because no decision can be made. The kicking of the can we are seeing right now in Washington according to my sources is a result of the lack of political will to make the tough choices. Over the course of the next eight weeks the rhetoric will heat up on the fiscal fight. “In America, today they are just bickering about peanuts instead of getting together and discussing other changes that they can make, and find a common ground. But right now, they’re not doing anything, and now things are getting worse and worse.” said Jacob Stolt-Nielsen, Founder of Stolt-Nielsen. ...

Hal's insight:

Click over the rest.

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Billionaire Eric Sprott - Fed Has No Exit Plan & There Is No Exit

Billionaire Eric Sprott - Fed Has No Exit Plan & There Is No Exit | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Here is what Sprott, who is Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, had to say:  “The Fed is trying to suck and blow at the same time because they are suggesting the rates are going to stay low out to 2015, unless the unemployment rate gets down.  They come out with this statement about the minutes, which means nothing because it’s not policy.


What I found most striking about it is if people really imagined that the Fed was not going to buy bonds, what should happen to interest rates?  What should happen to the stock market?  What should happen to the homebuilders?  What should happen to gold?    

 

The only thing that really got smashed (out of those asset categories) was gold and silver. ...


Hal's insight:

Suck and blow at the same time. Have to laugh at that comment, don't you?

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Yamada - Incredibly Important Chart & Commentary On Gold

Yamada - Incredibly Important Chart & Commentary On Gold | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Yamada’s December note on KWN:  “From a symmetry perspective, and assuming the consolidation holds to carry an ultimate upside resolution, there may need to be further consolidation to the right of the 2012 lows, equivalent to that on the left of the low.  That would carry an extended consolidation through the first quarter of 2013 before price finally might rise to address the 1,800 level with enough strength to penetrate.”  

 

So far her December comments are precisely what we have seen in the gold market.  Regardless, the longer gold builds a base here, the bigger the ultimate move will be.  There may be some short-term shenanigans going on in the gold market, but as long as those key levels Yamada noted hold, the gold market is just fine.  When gold finally breaks that $1,800 level she mentioned in her December note, you will see a violent move to the upside in gold.

Hal's insight:

I'm watching for it. Click over for the full piece and chart.

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Game Changer? – Market, Economic, Social, Political and Life Commentary by Peter Grandich

Just as I was about to enjoy the last day of what has been more work than vacation time, gold gets hammered on the back of news the punch bowl may be running dry. Throw in the fact that it always seems to get assaulted around the monthly employment report and one can certainly feel like its Deja-vu.

 

The latest plunge started yesterday when the Fed minutes showed some members want to be able to slow or stop their purchases well before the end of 2013. Others didn’t see a need for a specific timeframe for ending what we know as “quantitative easing”

 

Forgetting for a moment that other governments are still stimulating their economies like Japan (will likely increase its inflation rate by increasing asset purchases while adding to fiscal stimulus) and China (which plans to increase infrastructure spending and sustain loan growth), it’s a fairytale to think the FED can actually do anything but keep its foot on the gas pedal. ...

Hal's insight:

Click over for the rest of Grandich's thoughts including on what will happen to gold.

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Obama: We raised taxes, but the rich still aren’t paying their fair share | WashingtonExaminer.com

Obama: We raised taxes, but the rich still aren’t paying their fair share | WashingtonExaminer.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
President Obama cut a video, distributed by his reelection, to reiterate his belief that the wealthiest Americans still aren’t paying their “fair share” of taxes and to outline a second-term agenda ranging from environmental policy to gun control.
Hal's insight:

I guess he no longer needs to be sligh and hide the truth.

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Gold To See 186% Gain As System Collapses & Silver Hits $150

Gold To See 186% Gain As System Collapses & Silver Hits $150 | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Egon von Greyerz tells King World News:

 

“But the fiscal cliff is just a minor issue which involves around $120 billion, at best, savings in a year.  The US didn’t even succeed in rearranging those little deck chairs because cost-cutting has been deferred.  I’m sure that in 60 days when this is brought up again they will not cut costs significantly because no one will accept cost cuts.

 

The politicians won’t accept it because it means they won’t be reelected.  And the people won’t accept it because they will be even worse off.  Just like we’ve seen in Europe, austerity won’t happen.  Therefore, the deficits will continue, and they will continue at an accelerated rate.  

 

The performance of the US government over the last few weeks confirms that.  They couldn’t even agree on increasing the debt ceiling, even though the debt ceiling is a farce because it’s already been increased 150 times in the last 100 years.

 

This is why in 2013 we will see continued deficits and accelerated money printing.  This will happen not only in the US, but in the eurozone, Switzerland, the UK, Japan, and China.  We can just look at the problems here in Europe to see what’s going to come to the rest of the developed world. ...

Hal's insight:

Click through for the rest.

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Eric De Groot: Dog And Pog Show Continues

The dog and pony show of raising taxes ever so slightly without paying down anything is met with thunderous applause from a roaring stock market.  Be warned, the show of infinite liquidity and debt creation has no exits.  Only those that refrained from buying tickets to the show will have options when applause turns to panic in the coming years.

Hal's insight:

Food for thought.

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It’s a Spending Problem

It’s a Spending Problem | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Yuval Levin writes on NRO:

 

When talking about the fiscal problem we face, Democrats and Republicans have to start from the same set of figures, which by Washington convention is usually a set of Congressional Budget Office figures about government spending and revenue. From there, Republicans tend to argue that we need to significantly reduce spending to avoid a disastrous explosion of debt while Democrats tend to argue that we need to increase taxes to make up the fiscal gap. It is polite and customary for reporters covering that debate to then suggest that these are basically two equivalent ways to get at the problem and surely some combination will do the trick. But as we emerge from the universal confusion of the fiscal-cliff debate, it’s important to understand just how significant the mounting deficit and debt problem will be, and just how different are the roles that spending and revenue play in that problem. Let’s start with the Obama tax bill enacted yesterday. This was the tax increase on the rich that the Democrats have yearned and clambered for and which has been almost the entirety of the president’s fiscal agenda for four years. What effect will it have on the deficit? Here’s a quick chart made from CBO’s score of the bill compared to their last current-policy baseline: ...
Hal's insight:

Click over for the charts and the rest of the article. Hat tip to http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com 

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Fiscal Cliff Deal: What It Means For You « The Financial Physician

Fiscal Cliff Deal: What It Means For You « The Financial Physician | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

... The country is on the path to financial ruin and there is no stopping it. Congress will continue to spend money we have to borrow and The Federal Reserve will continue it’s massive money creation to finance our deficit. This will ultimately will lead to the collapse of the dollar and inflation like no American has seen in their lifetime. This is incredibly bullish for gold and silver ...

Hal's insight:

Yup.

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Twitter / JamesGRickards : "Security companies are busy ...

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Gold Climbed Against Every Fiat Currency In 2012

2013 is looking like another bullish year for gold.

 

Introduction – Gold’s Gains In All Fiat Currencies in 2012
Gold saw gains against all fiat currencies again in 2012 (see charts and tables).

 

Gold rose 7% in US dollars and was 4.9% higher in euro terms and 2.2% higher in sterling terms or to put it more correctly the major fiat currencies fell these amounts in 2012 against immutable gold.

 

The gains were the smallest annual gains since 2008 but built on the steady gains of the last 12 years. 



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/golds-outlook-in-2013-after-rising-in-all-fiat-currencies-in-2012-2013-1#ixzz2GvZOWJyX

Hal's insight:

So, something solid and limited gained against something imaginary and unlimited. Shocker.

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Turkey imports 120.78 tons of Gold in 2012

Turkish gold imports rose 51 percent to 120.78 tonnes in 2012 from 79.7 tonnes a year earlier..

 

ANKARA(BullionStreet): Gold imports by Turkey climbed sharply last year to 120.78 tons, said Istanbul Gold Exchange.

 

In it's latest data, Turkish gold imports rose 51 percent to 120.78 tonnes in 2012 from 79.7 tonnes a year earlier.

 

The Exchange said in December alone, gold imports hit 3.58 tonnes, up from 2.33 tonnes a year earlier. ...

Hal's insight:

Think Iran and energy and sanctions, folks.

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