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Gold and What Moves it.
Tracking all things that relate to and affect the price of gold.
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New Year could see immediate recession at worst, slower growth at best - TrimTabs Money Blog

New Year could see immediate recession at worst, slower growth at best - TrimTabs Money Blog | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
By Charles Biderman

Here we are two weeks to year end. Before I can make any kind of prediction about the economy and the stock market in 2013 I need to know the results, if any, of the fiscal cliff battle that is going on in Washington. I do know enough to predict that whatever happens will, at worst, mean an immediate recession in 2013, or, at best, much slower growth. And that, to put it mildly, will not be good for the stock market.

If we do go off the cliff, taxes will go up by over $500 billion next year. To put that in context, take home for all who pay taxes grew about $300 billion this year to $6.6 trillion in aggregate. In other words, if we go off we will automatically be in a recession. A real world recession, ignoring GDP nonsense, is a year over year decline in after tax income.

My reading of the tea leaves says the Obama Administration will settle for a $140 billion per year tax hike. If a deal gets done reducing incomes by $140 billion, and then adding about $50 billion in new Obama care taxes, overall taxes will go up by around $200 billion. That is two words of this year’s gain in after tax income. The best deal I can imagine the Obama folk agreeing to is at least a $100 billion tax hike. Add Obama care that would be a $150 billion hit to after tax income.

To recap, at best US economic growth will slow by at least half the already current anemic pace and at worst, we go into recession. Unfortunately I see no way things better early next year. ...
Hal's insight:

click over for the rest and his video.

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Lear Capital: Mum’s the Word – Silence is Golden | Lear Capital Blog

Lear Capital: Mum’s the Word – Silence is Golden | Lear Capital Blog | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
by David Engstrom:

Ever wonder why, in the midst of a global debt crisis, you never here about gold as a potential source of funds to bailout any portion of a country’s debt?

Even Greece, who sits on some 111 tonnes of gold does not inkle one bit about offering up gold reserves as collateral against money borrowed. In fact, reports suggest the opposite. Greece is in trouble so its citizens are cashing out savings to buy gold not sell it.

And so it is with Central Banks of the world. As the commercial goes, “Central Banks are flooding the world with printed money.” But what you don’t hear is the rest of the story. It goes something like this, “Central Banks are flooding the world with printed money and then buying gold in record amounts.”

According to the World Gold Council, Central Bank gold purchases, this year, will top 500 tonnes, up from 465 tonnes in 2011. The further in debt the world goes, the more gold the world buys. This is a story that should be hollered from the satellites to every roof top. Go ahead I dare you (mainstream financial news) to run a story about central bank gold purchases. Let me hear you explain why BRIC nations are buying or keeping all the gold they can get their hands on. Let me hear someone – Anyone! — link Central Bank gold purchases to rising global debt. ...
Hal's insight:

Click through for the rest. It does appear to me that the world's central banks are set on a course of resetting the global currency system and gold is going to be key.

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Gold and Silver | Florian Grummes | Safehaven.com

Gold and Silver | Florian Grummes | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Nothing has changed: Precious Metals bull market continues and is moving step by step closer to the final parabolic phase (could start in 2013 and last for 2-3 years or maybe later) ...

"... Gold has been oscillating around US$1,700.00 for 8 weeks and managed to hold important support at US$1,696.00. Many have given up on gold due to this price action. I personally think that we are now very close to the breakout. This triangle consolidation will be finished if Gold closes above US$1,725.00. From there Gold will move to US$1,800.00 pretty fast. ..."
Hal's insight:

Click through for the full analysis. I am pretty much of the same mindset for the long term outlook.

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Bernanke's Balance Sheet Ensures Disaster

Bernanke's Balance Sheet Ensures Disaster | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Michael Pento writes:

As expected, Ben Bernanke officially launched QE IV with his announcement last week of $85 billion dollars worth of unsterilized purchases of MBS and Treasuries. In unprecedented fashion, the Fed also tied the continuation of its zero interest rate policy and trillion dollars per annum balance sheet expansion to an unemployment rate that stays above 6.5%. Now, pegging free money and endless counterfeiting to a specific unemployment figure would be a brilliant idea if printing money actually had the ability to increase employment. But it does not.

The Fed recently celebrated the fourth anniversary of zero percent rates and massive expansion of its balance sheet. However, even after this incredibly accommodative monetary policy has been in effect since 2009, the labor condition in this country has yet to show significant improvement. Last month's Non-Farm Payroll report showed that the labor force participation rate and employment to population ratio is still shrinking. Goods-producing jobs continue to be lost and middle aged individuals are giving up looking for work. This is the only reason why the unemployment rate is falling. I guess if all those people currently looking for work decide it's a better idea to stay home and watch soap operas instead, the unemployment rate would then become zero. ...
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Afghanistan faces airborne gold exodus | MINING.com

Afghanistan faces airborne gold exodus | MINING.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Marc Howe writes:

Bullion sent via commercial plane flights to the money-laundering center of Dubai

Gold bullion is flying out of Afghanistan in increasing volumes under suspicious circumstances, with both Afghan and US officials concerned that they are witnessing a fresh wave of money laundering.

The New York Times reports that gold bullion is being taken out of Afghanistan via commercial plane flights with increasing frequency, with couriers sequestering staggering amounts of bullion in carry-on luggage or jacket pockets.

One courier recently brought 60 pounds of gold bars on board an early morning flight, whose total value is estimated to be in excess of USD$1.5 billion. Airport security forms indicate that 560 pounds of gold, valued at around $14 million, was removed from Afghanistan via passengers on commercial flights during the final two weeks of October alone. ...
Hal's insight:

My guess is that, like Marc notes, this has a lot to do with Iran and sanctions.

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China slashes rare earth mining rights in half | MINING.com

China slashes rare earth mining rights in half | MINING.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
China seeks to strengthen pricing ability on rare earth market

China's Ministry of Land and Resources has slashed its rare earth mining rights by around a half from 113 to 67 points.

The Morning Whistle reports that a new report by the research institute Jufeng Info Co., says that the new policy will raise the price of rare earths and is part of a bid to both strengthen China's pricing ability and reduce industry-wide irregularities. ...
Hal's insight:

China is going to start flexing some muscle.

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What has happened with gold in the last 11 years is not about gold, it is about the US paper dollar melting « Jim Sinclair's Mineset

What has happened with gold in the last 11 years is not about gold, it is about the US paper dollar melting « Jim Sinclair's Mineset | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
CIGA Mike wrote an eMail to Jim Sinclair that's worth reading. Here's a snippet:

"... Perspective is all important for SEEING what is happening right before your eyes BEFORE it is too late. What has happened with gold in the last 11 years is not about gold, it is about the US paper dollar melting away right before your eyes. What I am afraid will probably and unfortunately happen sometime in the next 11 years is the demise of the US paper dollar as we know it today. In my opinion, at that time when the mass population finally sees the truth, it will be all but too late. I would fully expect at that time the yearly trading range of gold could easily be equal to the total price of gold today and that would signal the demise of the paper dollar is within a year or two from that point. One should be able to see from all of this and from world history that here in America we are already over the “cliff” without a parachute. ..."
Hal's insight:

Click through for the full piece.

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We Are Headed To A Historic Collapse Of The Financial System

We Are Headed To A Historic Collapse Of The Financial System | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Robert Fitzwilson tells King World News:

"... There are two likely resolutions to this death-defying monetary show. The first is that we experience an historic, catastrophic, global, monetary collapse caused by an unpredictable failure in the system. In that case, the central bank acrobatic team flies the global economy into the ground while never doubting the wisdom of their ways. Our monetary pilots, focused on maintaining formation with the Fed, plow us all into the economic terra firma.

"The second is that the academics and bureaucrats take us into a post-sovereign, post-money world. In so doing, they show us that central planning was the correct way all along. Past attempts were just bungled. Control is maintained, and a new world financial order emerges. The accrued obligations on the books vanish. The distribution of resources and wealth are controlled and allocated by a central power, not markets. ..."
Hal's insight:

So which side of the  paper money will land face up do you suppose?

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It's a Trap! - Casey Research

It's a Trap! - Casey Research | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
by David Galland:

Watching the price action of gold on Wednesday after the Fed announced it was going to double down on quantitative easing, it was hard not to conclude that the precious metals were at risk of another leg down.

After all, here was Capt'n Ben announcing that the Fed helicopters were going to drop an additional $40 billion a month, bringing the dollar deluge to a whopping $85 billion a month – $1.02 trillion a year – and instead of soaring, the precious metals barely squeaked out any gains at all.

Sure enough, confirming my fears, in the overnight markets heading into Thursday, the prices of gold and silver were both smacked down smartly.

That this happened immediately on the heels of the Fed's announcement was concerning enough, but it's actually worse than that.

I say that because earlier this week Mark Carney, the incoming head of the Bank of England, the equivalent of the Fed, made a speech essentially stating that upon assuming his new job, he, too, would be advocating a large and open-ended quantitative easing.

Ditto, the sure-to-be-elected new prime minister of Japan is basing his successful campaign platform on much the same idea – an unlimited amount of new quantitative easing. Likewise, the ECB is shifting toward an accommodative policy.

In essence, in a deliberate attempt to spawn a global wave of inflation, it became clear this week that the Western world's major central banks have fallen lock-step behind a coordinated policy of extraordinary and unprecedented currency debasement. ...

Yet, gold and silver take it in the neck. What's going on?
Hal's insight:

Click through for the rest. Good read.

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Nigel Farage On The Queen’s Tour of Britain’s Gold Vault

Nigel Farage On The Queen’s Tour of Britain’s Gold Vault | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Eric King: “Nigel, countries have been looking to repatriate their gold because of concerns their gold has been leased out in some sort of US/Britain Ponzi scheme, where they are using paper leasing tactics and moving the countries gold they are (supposed to be) storing out of those vaults. We just had the Queen tour the vault and it was fascinating the timing of that because there is this move to repatriate the gold, your thoughts on that?”

Farage: “Yes, that was a very symbolic move wasn’t it, the Queen doing that? To sort of feel that at least we’ve got some gold in this country. Yes, I’ve read and thought a lot and there are certainly several American commentators pointing out that there may well be, in terms of gold reserves and their reality, a huge fraud going on.

I don’t know. But I’m just struck that if you look over the last 10 to 15 years, the clever governments have been buying gold, and the idiots have been selling gold. And those that buy gold don’t just buy paper, they make sure they’ve physically got the stuff.”
Hal's insight:

Click over for the full interview. Farage has some great things to say.

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Manipulated And Confused Markets | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

Manipulated And Confused Markets | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Chris Ciovacco writes:

"... Are there concerns? Sure, we always have concerns. The major concern is that manipulated markets are confused markets. What would bonds be worth if the Fed was not artificially suppressing interest rates? What would PE multiples and stock prices look like without low interest rates and mega amounts of printing money being pumped in the global financial system?

"The confusion of market participants has created a situation where "buy signals" and "sell signals" are occurring closer and closer together as measured in days. We currently have buy signals in place, but sell signals could appear in short order. The concepts of triangles, confusion, and short-durations between bullish and bearish signals are illustrated on this chart of semiconductors vs. bonds. Many markets look confused and have similar triangles. ..."
Hal's insight:

Chew on that for a bit.

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Twitter / libertycrucial: Interest rate rigging/Money ...

Hal's insight:

Yup.

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India importers still opt for cheap Thai Gold

India's duty hike means importing gold jewellery directly from select countries such as Thailand will be cheaper than buying gold in India.

NEW DELHI(BullionStreet): Taking advantage of India's free trade agreement (FTA) with Thailand, some importers are engaged in gold trafficking from the Southeast Asian nation.

Analysts said importers are opting for Thailand as duty on gold jewellery imported from there is just 2 percent compared to India's new 4 percent, because of FTA with that country.

India's duty hike means importing gold jewellery directly from select countries such as Thailand will be cheaper than buying gold in India. ...
Hal's insight:

Well, can you blame them?

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John Embry - Chinese Demand For #Silver Has Exploded

John Embry - Chinese Demand For #Silver Has Exploded | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
John Embry tells Eric King:

"... Right now there is infinitely more demand than there is supply in the silver market. I was just reading a study talking about how much the Chinese demand for silver has exploded in the last ten years. Chinese demand for silver has literally skyrocketed.

"When you put that together with everything else that’s been going on in the rest of the world, and the fact that inventories have declined dramatically, you can only arrive at one conclusion which is the supply of silver is really limited. The question arises, where are they getting enough in the near-term to carry out their paper shenanigans? That I can’t seem to answer. ..."
Hal's insight:

China has a long history with silver and culturally I can see this exploding again.

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oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Two Charts You Should See Before Risking a Dime in the Market in 2013

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Two Charts You Should See Before Risking a Dime in the Market in 2013 | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
by Charles Hugh Smith:

"Don't fight the Fed," blah blah blah. Really? What did the market do after QE3 and QE4 were duly announced? It tanked.

What if the Fed is out of tricks? It's not really a question; Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said as much in his press conference. It's not clear if the Ibogaine was wearing off or just kicking in, but the Chairman had an apologetic deer-in-the-headlights look of, "Gee, we're out of tricks and I'm sorry to have to tell you what is painfully obvious to everyone who isn't stoned silly on Delusionol (tm)."


Now that the Fed's magic hat is visibly out of rabbits, there are all sorts of complexities we could hash over such as the effects of bank charge-off rates on GDP or the Theater of the Absurd "fiscal cliff" play-acting, but why waste all that time and energy when a number of charts forecast trouble for the stock market in 2013?
Hal's insight:

Click through for the charts and rest of his piece.

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Goodbye to Liberty | Alasdair Macleod | Safehaven.com

Goodbye to Liberty | Alasdair Macleod | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
by Alasdair Macleod:

The human race, in its advanced economic form, is committing euthanasia. The US, UK, Europe and Japan are all implementing economic policies that must ultimately result in the complete destruction of their currencies; and if you destroy the means of exchange of goods and services, your people will starve. The political class and government establishments have drifted in incremental steps into this tragedy. Far from being the guiding hand for society, they are its destroyers.

We all look to government to supply what we used to provide for ourselves, in the naïve belief that it is our servant, it has our interests at its heart, and that it can deliver. Collectively we have chosen not social co-operation, but the disintegration and ultimate destruction of society itself. We labour under so many misconceptions about where our true interests lie that we have completely lost our bearings. We have in our time witnessed other nations destroy their own economic and social structures and do not see it happening to ourselves. ...
Hal's insight:

Interesting op-ed from Macleod. Click through for the rest.

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Gold fever strikes German retail investors | MINING.com

Gold fever strikes German retail investors | MINING.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
69% of Germans have invested in gold, with around half of them keeping bullion in their own homes

by Marc Howe:

"'Despite the relative health of the German economy compared to its beleaguered Mediterranean peer states in the EU, average Germans are investing in physical gold en masse due to concerns over their fiscal well-being.

"The Local reports that a new study by the Steinbeis Research Center for Financial Services has discovered that 69% of Germans have invested in gold, with around half of them keeping bullion in their own homes. 48% stash their gold in bank vaults, while 9% sequester their precious metals at the premises of specialized gold traders.

"The Teutonic enthusiasm for gold is also increasing, with the number of Germans who have a net monthly income in excess of EUD4,000 and express an interest in gold investment having doubled in the current year.

"On a per capita basis Germans own around 117 grams of gold each, while including gold securities the average German owns around EUD5,750 of gold. ..."
Hal's insight:

Somebodies getting worried.

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India to promote 'Paper Gold' to curb climbing imports

More and more gold based schemes were being planned by government to encourage investors to join schemes without investing in the physical commodity.

NEW DELHI(BullionStreet): Asia's third largest economy India is trying everything now to stop excessive gold imports, accounted for the high current account deficit of the country.

More and more gold based schemes were being planned by government to encourage investors to join schemes without investing in the physical commodity.

According to India's Mid-Year Economic Analysis tabled in Parliament Monday, gold-backed products will help the investor enjoy benefits of investment in the metal without investing in the physical commodity.

India is considering schemes like gold deposits, accumulation plans, gold-linked accounts and pension products to curb demand for the precious metal. ...
Hal's insight:

A sneaky form of removing gold from the hand's of the citizens.

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Our Path To Collapse Will Impact Everyone Around The World

Our Path To Collapse Will Impact Everyone Around The World | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Dan Norcini tells Eric King:

"When you look at the decline in the value of the currency there in Rome. A common denominator in all of these civilizations is you first see it in morality. The moral structure or virtue of that empire declines.

"Its ethics begin to decline and decadence comes into society. That reveals itself in all aspects of society. It also reveals itself in the monetary system of those societies. During the days of Rome, what the authorities did, in order to counteract some of the decay in the civilization, was they began to resort to ‘coin clipping.’

"The reason they did that was they found a way to multiply the amount of money that was in circulation by shaving off tiny bits and pieces of the silver coins that were there. They could then (take those clippings) and mint more coins. ..."
Hal's insight:

The Fed and Gov think they can avoid the fates of past empires, past governments, I don't think so. Man's heart is still the same.

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Calif. Woman To Inherit $7 Million In Gold Coins - NPR

Calif. Woman To Inherit $7 Million In Gold Coins - NPR | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Calif. Woman To Inherit $7 Million In Gold CoinsNPRA cleaning crew found the coins after the death of a reclusive man in Carson City, Nevada, earlier this year.
Hal's insight:

Now that's a nice inheritance.

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Peter Schiff Owning Everyone's Ass on C-span

Peter Schiffs a bad ass
Hal's insight:

Hat tip to https://twitter.com/jesseandclara

 

It's a bit of an older video but points continue to be valid.

 

I particularly liked the comment at the end about gasoline, jobs, and funny money.

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The Golden Truth: Industrial Production, The Fiscal Cliff And Socialism

The Golden Truth: Industrial Production, The Fiscal Cliff And Socialism | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Dave in Denver writes:

"... The fact that there's record inventories of GM cars piled up on the dealer floors is likely the result of the Government triggering production in excess of end user demand. This is why, in my view, a big part of the reason that the industrial production number looks so robust for November. I only have the dealer inventory data for GM because that's all Zerohedge tracks and I don't have time to hunt down numbers for Chysler. But I would bet that there's a similar dynamic for Chrysler, which is 6% owned by the Government.

"This is all part of the insidious socialism that is engulfing our system. It's a massive transfer of taxpayer wealth that is going into the bank accounts of the upper management at GM and to the giant auto union at GM. This is not an anti-Obama/Democrat or anti-union rant. I'm just pulling back the thick cloud of gray smoke away from the headline data to show you what's going on. Not only does the economy look stronger from a production standpoint, but monthly auto sales also appear to be a lot more robust. ..."
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Eric De Groot: Most Will Live To See $3,500

Eric De Groot writes:

Any experienced trader knows that as long as NY dominates the paper price of gold, it will never, ever breakout after a Fed statement.

While anyone can expire unexpectedly, the vast majority of your readers under the age of 95 and eating their recommended daily servings of fruit and vegetable instead of deep fried twinkies will live to see $3,500 despite the emotional roller coaster of the AB delay. ...
Hal's insight:

Had to laugh at the images. Click through for his charts and the rest of his analysis. Laughing is good, fyi. ;-)

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oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Essays in Fragility: Shadow Banking, Housing Inventory and Liabilities

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Essays in Fragility: Shadow Banking, Housing Inventory and Liabilities | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
by Charles Hugh Smith:

Denial doesn't change reality. It only cripples our response to reality.

Psychologists and behavioral economists have found that we deceive ourselves (conceal the truth) to serve our own interests. Perhaps this is why the mainstream ignores the Id Monsters in the shadows: shadow banking, shadow housing inventory and shadow liabilities.

Let's start with shadow banking. Shadow banks are hedge funds and other entities that engage in financial business without being banks. Shadow banking is now larger than conventional banking in the U.S.: via Zero Hedge: The Historic Inversion In Shadow Banking Is Now Complete.
The global picture isn't much different. Shadow banks control 5 times as many assets as public financial institutions. Note that most of the shadow banking sector is in the U.S. and Europe: ...
Hal's insight:

Click over for the full piece. Great article.

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China's influence on the global silver market has surged since the turn of the century | MINING.com

China's influence on the global silver market has surged since the turn of the century | MINING.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Middle Kingdom set to become world's second biggest producer of the precious metal

In tandem with its economic resurgence China's position on the international silver market has changed dramatically since the turn of the century, with the Middle Kingdom expected soon become world's second biggest producer of the precious metal.

Kitco News reports that a new study on the Chinese silver market published by Thomson Reuters GFMS and commissioned by the Silver Institute says that China has transformed from a "relatively small player" on the silver market as recently as the 1990's into the world's second largest silver fabricator with a burgeoning share of both global supply and demand. ...
Hal's insight:

China has a much longer history with silver. They get it.

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