Gold and What Moves it.
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Gold and What Moves it.
Tracking all things that relate to and affect the price of gold.
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The only thing that I do know for sure is that those that are doing it, have the deepest pockets on Planet Earth - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily

The only thing that I do know for sure is that those that are doing it, have the deepest pockets on Planet Earth - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Ed Steer's comment on gold and silver market:


Maybe it's just me, but it's obvious from the above [click over to see the full size chart he is mentioning], that there are massive amounts of gold and silver being moved around at an ever-faster pace...and that's just what's being reported in the public domain.  You have to wonder what the reasons are...and who is behind it all.  The only thing that I do know for sure is that those that are doing it, have the deepest pockets on Planet Earth.

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The wheels are coming off the whole of southern Europe - Telegraph

The wheels are coming off the whole of southern Europe - Telegraph | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Europe’s debt-crisis strategy is near collapse. The long-awaited recovery has failed to take wing. Debt ratios across southern Europe are rising at an accelerating pace. Political consent for extreme austerity is breaking down in almost every EMU crisis state. And now the US Federal Reserve has inflicted a full-blown credit shock for good measure.
Hal's insight:

Hat tip to http://economicsignsofthetimes.blogspot.com

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oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: What Every Student in America Needs to Know About the Federal Reserve

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: What Every Student in America Needs to Know About the Federal Reserve | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

People are confused about the Fed, and I think it would be better if everybody had a clear understanding of what the Federal Reserve is and what it is not.First of all, the Federal government thinks of the Federal Reserve as a service bureau, whose function it is to print money that the government can spend. As long as the Federal Reserve performs that function--reliably printing, let's say, a trillion or more each year to top off the Federal budget--then Congress will be happy with the Federal Reserve (their rainmaker) and will follow its advice and try to keep it happy.


It should be emphasized here that the whole Keynesian smokescreen and sideshow has very little to do with the reality of the relationship here. The Federal Reserve's job is not just to lend Uncle Sam some money during a recession so as to provide temporary stimulus. The Fed is a milk cow for Uncle Sam. Its job is to give milk all the time.

So to summarize this first point, the Fed is a service bureau ...

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The Golden Truth: GOFO Explained And Why It's Now Very Bullish For Gold

The Golden Truth: GOFO Explained And Why It's Now Very Bullish For Gold | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
This (the price correction in gold) is good news. Gold is doing what it should do. And it is giving us another good opportunity to buy a life vest before the boat sinks.                              - Bill Bonner, LINK 


Something curious and very rare has occurred in the "bowels" of the gold market.  The Gold Forward rate (GOFO) has gone negative.  This has occurred only four times in the last 14 years.  Each time a negative GOFO has been connected to significant bottom in the gold market:  in 1999 a secular transition from a 20-year bear market into a yet-undetermined in length bull market;  in 2000 + 2001 it correlated with a move that lead to the 1st cyclical bull market high of $1020 in 2006;  in 2008 it correlated with the price correction from the 2006 high and marked the climb to the all-time record cyclical high of $1900 in 2011;  and now.

A negative GOFO rate means that gold in hand today is worth more than U.S. dollars in hand.  Think about that the next time someone tries to explain to you why gold has no value.  This is a sophisticated transaction being executed by sophisticated banks.  They are not in the business of leaving money on the table for others.  If they are willing to pay money to get their hands on gold, it means they are placing a higher value on gold than on dollars.  That's just the law of the time value of money in action.

The severity and degree of manipulation that has been required to "help" along the current 2-yr price correction in the metals sector is testament to ...

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Excessive speculations reflect dramatic shift in Gold lease rate

Excessive speculations reflect dramatic shift in Gold lease rate | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
During the middle of April when gold prices witnessed historical crash of $200, the Asian customers started to believe that the price of $1300 is reasonable bargain prices against the historical peak price of $1921.15 witnessed during September,...

 

Excessive short-term speculations in gold and hammering by bears have reflects the dramatic shift to the gold lease rate market. Lease rate is the borrowing cost of gold.

Till last month, such gold lease rates were minus or negative. However, at the start of the current week it became positive and on Wednesday reached at the peak of 0.2988%, which is the highest monthly rate since 18th December, 2008. ...

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Smuggling Gold worth $5 billion to hit India this year

Smuggling Gold worth $5 billion to hit India this year | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Nepal became the safe haven hub for transporting gold to India from China and other southeast Asian nations as the price of yellow metal is cheaper in Nepal than in India.

 

NEW DELHI(BullionStreet): India's efforts to curb gold imports are backfiring as the country already started to suffer from illegal gold transactions.

 

Reports said old style gold smuggling is back in the country as series of restrictions by the government makes it difficult for the importers to buy from abroad while smugglers are offering much lower prices.

 

Analysts said smuggling became a lucrative affair after the rise in customs duty on gold imports and people risking their necks to smuggle in gold.

 

They added that smugglers got an opportunity after being sidelined for nearly 15 years due to liberalized policies of the government on gold imports. ...

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VantageWire Canada - The Asian Giant Stampeding into Gold

VantageWire Canada - The Asian Giant Stampeding into Gold | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

I recently discussed how traders were stampeding out of gold as a result of rising interest rates and the threat of evaporating monetary fluid that was lubricating markets. Hovering around $1,200 at the beginning of July, the gold price has completely disconnected from the precious metal’s fundamentals, in my opinion. Prices have fallen too far out of fear, but the drivers for gold are still in place.

 

My friend and highly respected analyst, Gregory Weldon, highlighted an important point about rising rates in the U.S. The coupon on the nation’s $13.22 trillion debt averages 1.88 percent with an average maturity of 5.4 years. As interest rates rise, debt will be rolled over at a higher rate, making the burden even greater than it already is. This suggests a likely tipping point for Treasuries. Will the Federal Reserve suppress yields at that “line in the sand?” ...

 

 

Hal's insight:

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Jesse's Café Américain: COMEX Gold Inventories - A Towering Citadel of Paper

Jesse's Café Américain: COMEX Gold Inventories - A Towering Citadel of Paper | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Lower and lower, to new record lows. 

Weighed, and found wanting.

Who is running this sideshow?

And where will it end?

Hal's insight:

This really is amazing. Click through for the full size charts.

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Indian Gold Dealer: Government Blames Gold For Account Deficit, Crushes Demand By 86% With Punitive Taxes | Bull Market Thinking

Indian Gold Dealer: Government Blames Gold For Account Deficit, Crushes Demand By 86% With Punitive Taxes | Bull Market Thinking | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

By Tekoa Da Silva:

 

I had the chance this morning to reconnect with Vishal Vyas, head of operations at India’s top bullion dealer, Pushpak Bullions Pvt. Ltd.

 

It was a sobering conversation, as Vishal indicated that the Indian government has just stepped in and crushed the domestic gold market with punitive taxation and trade controls. He also indicated that Dubai is now becoming a major recipient of “gold tourism”—with tourists flooding into the United Arab Emirates in order to buy gold.

 

Speaking to the recent steps taken by the Indian government to smash demand coming from the world’s largest gold market, Vishal said, “In India, due to the monetary policy and pressure from the finance ministry to control the current account deficit, the government is trying to curb the import of gold into India. They [just] increased customs duties by 2%, which is now at 8%. Apart from that, they have also banned the import of gold on a consignment basis—which was the normal practice worldwide to import gold.”

 

These new measures have crushed domestic Indian demand by about 86% Vishal noted, in that, “As far as the number I have come across, only 28 tonnes of gold was imported [during] the month of June…[in] March, April and May, I think it was more than 200 tonnes…so there is a big, big change now.”


In terms of why the Indian government is waging such a battle against gold, Vishal explained that ...

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Peter @Grandich Interview: I’ve never seen such a lineup of people wanting to predict the demise and end of [gold]

Peter @Grandich Interview: I’ve never seen such a lineup of people wanting to predict the demise and end of [gold] | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

... Could you update our investors on your outlook for gold?  Have we found a bottom for gold or is there still room for decline?


A:    Well, I’ve run out of chalk to draw a line to the bottom of gold.  So I may not be the best person on that.  But I will say that in almost 30 years of being around the financial markets, I’ve never seen such a lineup of people wanting to predict the demise and end of something.  And something that had gone up for 12 years in a row beforehand and most of those who are predicting its demise, never participated, fully or at all, in that rise.  And so it’s always dangerous to catch a falling knife, which gold has been.  But the current emotional and psychological sentiment is what one expects at the end of a move which clearly has been down for almost two years.  So if we’re not at the bottom, it’s certainly within reach.  And so certainly if one hasn’t sold by now, I think it’s futile because from these levels, the reward now is greatly more to the upside than the downside.


Q:    So given those statements, do you prefer silver over gold as an investment currently? 


A:    No, I always choose gold , much to the chagrin of some people who spend a lot of time writing me emails in disagreement. I feel that gold almost always is a better choice over silver simply because I believe it has more monetary and investment characteristics.  I do think that there comes ...

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Game Over - “It’s All A Farce, The Fed & German Gold Is Gone”

Game Over - “It’s All A Farce, The Fed & German Gold Is Gone” | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today one of the savviest and well connected hedge fund managers in the world shocked King World News by taking us once again on a trip down the rabbit hole that was nothing short of breathtaking.  Outspoken Hong Kong hedge fund manager William Kaye spoke with KWN about the missing Fed and German gold, where it has gone, and how much gold the People’s Bank Of China (PBOC) really owns.  This interview is going to stun readers around the world.  Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, had this to say in part I of his remarkable interview.


Kaye:  “Global hegemony (leadership or dominance) is changing in a way that most people don’t fully comprehend.  This area of the world, the Asia-Pacific, China in particular, is positioning itself to be the leading global power as we look out over the next five to ten years.


My sources tell me that contrary to the public numbers that are available, China has anywhere between 4,000 to possibly 8,000 tons of (physical) gold....


Hal's insight:

It's long been my thought that China has far more gold than they are reporting.

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Why the USA is like Argentina - Of Wealth

Why the USA is like Argentina - Of Wealth | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Argentina is infamous in the history of financial crises. Hyperinflations, devaluations, debt defaults, banking crises. You name it and the Argentines have probably been through it in the past half century. The last meltdown was in 2002. The currency collapsed, dollar bank deposits were “pesified” and rioters were burning tyres in the streets and shooting at the shuttered entrances of the banks.

 

Argentine politicians are renowned for their populist short-termism, desire to fight market forces, and consistent belief that they can reinvent the laws of economics. And for their apparently short memories…

 

As a result, the average taxi driver in Buenos Aires understands more about financial mismanagement than the crowd at a conference of nobel prize winning economics professors and central bankers.

 

The USA is still the world’s largest economy and issues the world’s main reserve currency, the US dollar. The capital markets for stocks (shares) and bonds are the biggest and most liquid (easily traded) in the world. The country is seen as being advanced in all things financial. And yet there are surprising similarities with the way that Argentina runs its finances these days. In fact in some ways the US is even worse. ...

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Pulling Back the Curtain on Phony Government Statistics | Casey Research

Pulling Back the Curtain on Phony Government Statistics | Casey Research | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

By John Williams, Founder, ShadowStats.com

 

Nothing is normal: not the economy, not the financial system, not the financial markets and not the political system. The financial system still remains in the throes and aftershocks of the 2008 panic. A number of underlying problems of that time, tied to the risks of a near-systemic collapse and the related, extreme economic downturn, were pushed into the future—not resolved—by the extraordinary liquidity and systemic-intervention actions taken by the Federal Reserve and federal government. Further panic is possible, and severe US dollar debasement and inflation remain inevitable.

 

Nonetheless, several major misperceptions appear to have developed in the last month or two concerning an end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing, the level of crisis posed by US fiscal imbalances, and an unfolding recovery in the US economy.

 

Contrary to currently hyped expectations in the popular financial media, chances are negligible for any serious, near-term reduction in the Federal Reserve's purchases of US Treasury securities. The Fed has locked itself into ongoing quantitative easing, with fair prospects of expanded, not reduced accommodation in the year ahead. Separately, the long-term solvency issues of the United States should return to the center of attention for the global financial markets by early September 2013. At present, prospects of the US government meaningfully addressing its extreme fiscal imbalances are nonexistent.

 

Exacerbating financial-system solvency concerns for the Fed and intensifying US fiscal instabilities, the US economy never recovered from its 2008 plunge, and now it is slowing anew. Increasing recognition of these factors, complicated by the potential of a domestic political scandal taking on Watergate-style status, promise difficult times ahead for ...

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Gold Market Tightens Signaling Possible Price Recovery

Gold Market Tightens Signaling Possible Price Recovery | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Gold hit a fresh three-year low of $1,180 per ounce in late June and has since struggled back to the $1,240 to $1,260 range.  Although the latest decline began back in April, the sell-off accelerated in June following Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement that the U.S. central bank might soon taper off its program of quantitative easing.

 

Although the price of gold remains vulnerable and overly sensitive to any bearish news, the metal’s price is, in my view, already in the process of bottoming. ...

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Trader Dan's Market Views: "TO QE or not to QE, that is the Question"

Trader Dan's Market Views: "TO QE or not to QE, that is the Question" | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Even though I have become accustomed to this madness since the Fed first started its QE programs back in late 2008, I still marvel in wonder at the reaction of the investment/trading world to the words that proceed out of the mouth of a mere mortal, who puts his underwear and socks on just like the rest of us lesser beings.

The initial reaction of gold to the much anticipated FOMC minutes today was one of apparent confusion. It first spiked higher only to then fade and lose most of its gains after the minutes hit the wire. Trading seemed to reflect the confusion arising from what I can only term, "convoluted" remarks from the FOMC. On the one hand there were comments about tapering the program by the end of this year; on the other were the usual remarks about the dependency on economic data releases. Basically what the market got was a big, large batch of NOTHING. No one was the least bit clearer or the least bit more insightful into when the Fed would or would not begin to taper. The erratic trading was proof of that to me.

Wait a little while and PRESTO; out popped ...

Hal's insight:

Be sure to click over and view the chart and the rest of Trader Dan's post. 

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Biderman's Daily Edge: Stocks Near All Time Highs, Yet US Economy Nowhere Near Sustainable Growth

Biderman's Daily Edge: Stocks Near All Time Highs, Yet US Economy Nowhere Near Sustainable Growth | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Stock prices are near record highs despite the fact that the U.S. economy is barely growing. So it is highly unlikely stock prices will keep going up without the tail wind of massive money printing. Which means this stock market bubble will pop when the Fed announces that it will start slowing the new money game.

 

Yes, despite all the hopes, prayers and rhetoric, the U.S. economy is barely growing. Forget about GDP. GDP is a useless government stat that when first released is a nothing more than a guess. Instead, I look at withheld income and employment taxes reported in the Daily Treasury Statement. Adjusting for the changes in tax rates, what is really going on is that since March, year over year wage and salary growth before inflation has grown between 2.8 percent and 3.7 percent. That growth rate is down about a percentage point this year from 2011 and 2012 primarily because of this year’s boost in employment taxes. In other words, the underlying U.S. economy has been growing very slowly with no real change up or down over the past three years.

 

What does three to four percent wage and salary mean in the real world? Well, three percent wage and salary growth translates into $200 billion plus or minus in higher incomes each of the past three years. Is that good? Consider that we had wage and salary growth of about five to six percent annually during the mid 2000’s and that was before the hundreds of billions that came out of real estate each year from 2003 to 2007. That is why to everybody other than stock holders the US economy sucks.

 

- See more at: http://charlesbiderman.com/2013/07/11/stocks-near-all-time-highs-yet-u-s-economy-nowhere-near-sustainable-growth/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TrimtabsMoneyBlog+%28TrimTabs+Money+Blog%29#sthash.vGAlwkM8.dpuf

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Central Bank Gold Demand — A Quick Note

Central Bank Gold Demand — A Quick Note | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Official-sector gold demand for April and May totaled some 24 tons according to preliminary data from the International Monetary Fund.  This is roughly 10 percent less than the same two-month period last year.

However, I suspect a few central banks either have not reported and/or may have recently resumed or accelerated their long-term gold acquisition programs.

 

Moreover, It is likely that some prospective central-bank buyers have been holding off, waiting for an indication that gold prices have hit a bottom.

More Than Meets the Eye

It is also possible that one or another official buyer have yet to report their April-May gold acquisitions . . . 

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A Pattern Emerges

A Pattern Emerges | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

TF-Metals Writes:

 

Because I'm still adjusting to the time change coming off of my vacation, I found myself tossing and turning last night when I suddenly came to this realization. Though not on the level of Dr. Emmett Brown after hitting his head on his bathroom sink, I think you'll find this interesting, nonetheless.

 

As you know, The Bullion Banks have engaged in a relentless campaign to lessen their exposure and potential liability in paper precious metal. Since the announcement of QE∞ last September, price has counter-intuitively fallen by over a third from near $1800 to below $1200. All the while, The Bullion Banks have decreased their total net short position in paper gold from 737 metric tonnes to less than 70 metric tonnes (from the CoT survey of 7/2/13). From a chart perspective, it looks like ...

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This is a must read folks. Click through for the charts and the anaylsis.

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South African union demands leap to "living wage" - Mineweb

South African union demands leap to "living wage" - Mineweb | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

"A living wage" is the battle cry of South Africa's Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) as it and rival unions plunge into pay talks this month with mining houses.

 

But what is a living wage for a South African miner?

 

Finding a definition, no easy task, has become the goal of an increasingly militant labour force demanding pay increases ranging from 15 to 150 percent, which mining companies can ill afford as precious metals prices tumble and costs surge.

 

Wage negotiations in the gold sector kick off on Thursday. ...

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Failed Banking System Prompts Iraqis to Hoard Gold - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily

Failed Banking System Prompts Iraqis to Hoard Gold - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Failed Banking System Prompts Iraqis to Hoard Gold

There is an old Arabic saying that "gold is both for decoration and storing." Currently, Iraqis, particularly residents of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, are taking these words to heart. In the absence of a trustworthy banking system, they are converting their money into gold and stashing it in their homes. The Department of Standards and Quality Control for Gold and Minerals in the Kurdistan Region acknowledges that, indeed, large quantities of gold are being imported and distributed.

 

Bakr Aziz, the director of quality control for gold in the Kurdistan Regional Government's Ministry of Planning, revealed to Al-Monitor, "During the past six months, 49.4 [metric] tons of gold have been imported into Iraq through the Erbil and Sulaimaniyah airports." By comparison, according to Aziz, during the first seven months of 2012, some 34 tons of gold were imported.

 

He further explained, "Amounts of gold are brought in according to the needs of the Iraqi market. These quantities are brought in through the Erbil and Sulaimaniyah airports and distributed to all of Iraq." These two airports have supplanted Baghdad's airport as shipment points for gold due to the deteriorating security situation in central and southern Iraq and the lack of security in the airports there. By contrast, there is a "high level of organization in the Kurdistan Region's airports." Aziz reiterated, "[These airports] are secure, making it easier to bring gold into Iraq via the Kurdistan Region." ...

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Giant Banks Take Over Real Economy As Well As Financial System … Enabling Manipulation On a Vast Scale | Zero Hedge

Giant Banks Take Over Real Economy As Well As Financial System … Enabling Manipulation On a Vast Scale | Zero Hedge | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Top economists, financial experts and bankers say that the big banks are too large … and their very size is threatening the economy.

 

They say we need to break up the big banks to stabilize the economy.

 

They say that too much interconnectedness leads to financial instability.

 

They also say that the big financial players are able to manipulate virtually every market in the world.

 

And that the government has given the banks huge subsidies ... which they are using for speculation and other things which don't help the economy.

But the big banks have only gotten bigger – and more interconnected – than before the phony financial “reform” legislation was passed a couple of years ago.

 

As if that wasn’t bad enough, four congressmen point out that the big banks are now taking over the tangible economy as well … which allows them to control and manipulate the markets.

 

Specifically, Congressman Grayson wrote – and Congressmen Conyers, Ellison and Grijalva co-signed – a letter to the Federal Reserve which, in the words of a congressional aide:

 

Ask[ed] why large banks are engaged in a host of commercial activities, including power production, management of ports, oil drilling and distribution, and uranium mining. These activities have nothing to do with the business of banking and it’s unclear how the Fed or other bank regulators can actually regulate them. There’s useful and somewhat crazy information in the 10Ks of the banks about what they are currently doing. You can find that in the footnotes of the letter. ...

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William Kaye - The Savage Gold War Behind The Scenes

William Kaye - The Savage Gold War Behind The Scenes | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

William Kaye tells King World News:


And that gold is being transited from places like London and New York to places like Hong Kong and Shanghai.  This is what’s happening.  There is this major migration of gold from the West to the East.  And it’s ongoing, but we’re getting late in the game.


The Spyder Gold Trust, which is by far the largest ETF in the world and has provided the majority of the gold that has been used to execute the scam that is ongoing by the bullion banks, these guys have lost 30% of their inventory.  They have lost roughly 13 million ounces year-to-date.

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The Decline Of Breadwinner Jobs Has Resulted In The Longest Bread Lines In American History

The Decline Of Breadwinner Jobs Has Resulted In The Longest Bread Lines In American History | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

As the number of good jobs continues to decline, the number of Americans that cannot take care of themselves without government assistance continues to explode.  On Friday, we learned that the U.S. economy added "195,000 jobs" last month.  But when you look deeper at the numbers, another story emerges.  Last month, the U.S. economy actually lost240,000 full-time jobs.  Overall, the U.S. economy has only added 130,000 full-time jobs in 2013, but it takes about 90,000 full-time jobs a month just to keep up with population growth.  So we are losing quite a bit of ground as far as full-time jobs are concerned.  Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has added more than 500,000 part-time jobs so far this year.  Unfortunately, there are very, very few part-time and temp jobs that can be considered "breadwinner jobs".  Part-time jobs are great for teenagers, university students and elderly people that only want to work a limited number of hours, but what most Americans need are good paying full-time jobs with benefits that will allow them to take care of their families.  Unfortunately, those jobs are continually becoming a smaller part of our economy. ...

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The growing political risk to miners posed by water shortages

The growing political risk to miners posed by water shortages | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Water plays a vital role in every step of the mining process, from initial extraction to the refinement of ore.

 

In response to the growing global demand for metals and minerals, the mining industry has stepped up exploration and development of mines in various inhospitable places the world over. Though this trend has recently reversed in the wake of softening global demand, 136 new projects were announced in 2012, according to Ernst & Young. Despite the soft medium-term global economic outlook and rapidly decreasing capital expenditures by major miners, the long-term demand expectations of the developing world remain high, and thus so too does the need to continue exploration for metals and minerals in the world's far-flung places.

 

Unsurprisingly, the development of difficult resource deposits has occurred in increasingly sensitive environments, far from the infrastructure necessary to meet the immense challenges of large-scale mining operations. One of the most common risk factors mining firms are faced with, in the frontier and emerging economies where these new deposits have been found, is a lack of the rivers, lakes, and water sources that are so important to a successful mining operation.

 

Access to a secure and stable water supply is essential for most mining operations, as ...

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