"Renowned money manager Rob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, says that the US has not entered into a recovery period yet. He points to the percentage of Americans between the ages of 20 and 65 without jobs. At 75% it’s higher than when it was over two years ago when the recession ended. He also points to a housing sector still reeling from foreclosures and to the US’s huge debt. And he thinks companies will be prone to “big surprises on the downside” due to high expectations this year."