"2012 will be a difficult year for all forecasters of commodities, equities, interest rates, etc. - The macroeconomic background will include a recession in Europe, difficult politics in the US (with no certainty that President Obama will not be reelected), and slowing growth in gold's two largest physical markets - India and China. Indeed, with slow growth or recession all around - the US economy will remain problematic in 2012 - gold prices will be pulled intermittently lower. 2008 serves as a rough guide in this regard; gold declined some 30% peak-trough in 2008 on the back of the recession. With gold recently having peaked at $1895 (pm fix) a 30% retracement would put gold below $1400. We think the low for 2012 will be higher than that however."