"Technically, the degree of the run both up and down has suggested the need for an extended period of repair / consolidation. We do not believe this process is over. Interestingly, one can note that the weekly momentum model did not register a Buy signal on the recent rally (see arrow) and continues to decline. The technical implication is that there is more repair to take place, possibly even inclusive of further price attrition.
"Our primary support remains 1,600, but the lower level of 1,515 at the uptrend intersect should not be discounted. In particular, if equities decline to the extent that there are margin calls, if investors cannot sell what they want to sell, they sell what they can, and as in 2008, Gold retreated with equities in just such a scenario.
"Additionally, the U.S. dollar is rising amid the global crises, just giving a long-term momentum Buy signal, and could hamper the upward progress of Gold over the short-to-intermediate term, into next year, as occurred in 2008 with the dollar strength. But in this topsy-turvy market, Gold could buck the dollar trend and retain a safe haven status. In that event, any sustainable move through 1,800 could result in a challenge of the former high.
"Longer-term, Gold remains in an uptrend and we include a statistical study in favor of Gold longer term in the Special Feature below regarding negative interest rates."
[I always value Louise Yamada's take on gold and silver]