The domino of retail CRE will not fall in isolation; it will topple the domino of debt next to it.
That the retail trade is stagnating has been well-established: for example, The Retail Death Rattle (The Burning Platform).
Equally well-established is the vulnerability of the bricks-n-mortar commercial real estate sector to this downturn: yesterday's analysis by Mark G. makes the case:After Seven Lean Years, Part 2: US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects.
I'd like to extend Mark's excellent analysis a bit because it suggests that the retail CRE (commercial real estate) sector will likely be the first domino to fall in the next financial crisis--the one we all know is brewing.
Let's start with two charts of retail that I have marked up: the first is a chart of retail traffic from The Burning Platform story above ...