A ripple of skepticism recently hit prices of the yellow metal, but gold remains the ultimate hedge on inflation
The global economy has already entered into stagflation with a growth rate of 2 percent and inflation at 3 percent. The inflation rate is likely to rise above 4 percent in 18 months while the growth rate will remain stuck in the same range. With inflation twice as high as the growth rate, the global economy will slip deeper into stagflation.
The recent decline in commodity prices does not signal a reversal in the inflationary trend. It is a onetime redistribution of mining income to consumer purchasing power. The prevailing negative real interest rate channels monetary growth above economic growth into inflation wherever there is shortage. Manual labor in emerging economies, skilled labor in the developed economies, agricultural commodities, rent, healthcare, education, etc., are leading the inflationary trend.
Inflation expectations are already a self-reinforcing influence on emerging economies such as India. It will take root in developed economies. When this occurs, the global economy will run into an inflationary crisis as a result of wrong-headed policies used to deal with the financial crisis.
Multinational companies remain the biggest beneficiaries of the current global environment. The macro instabilities give them opportunities to arbitrage the frequent fluctuations in demand and production costs across the globe. The negative real interest rate has boosted their ...