Is there anyone investors can trust for rational commentary on gold's recent price meltdown?
L: Doug, the news of the week is the big meltdown in the gold market. Some people are saying the bear is here to stay, and it's time to sell everything gold-related and look for greener pastures elsewhere. Others are saying the is the buying opportunity of the decade, and it's time to go "all in." What do you think?
Doug: I'd say it was neither. It could be that just as in 2008, when gold went down a lot at just the time you might think everyone would be panicking into it. But a lot of people had to sell their gold to meet their other obligations that were denominated in various paper currencies. That may be happening at this very moment in Cyprus. There are conflicting reports, but they may end up being forced to sell something on the order of half a billion euros' worth of gold – and if that happens to them, it could happen to other much larger countries that are in trouble, like Greece, Italy, Spain... or France.
L: That is an interesting explanation. A lot of people have been pointing at the lower price target and guidance issued by Goldman Sachs – but why anybody would listen to those guys after all they've been wrong about, at taxpayers' expense, is beyond me.
Doug: Yes. It makes no sense that anyone would listen to Wall Street analysts about gold. Insofar as these people have an education in economics, it's invariably something they've gotten from a conventional university program, which is to say that their economics degrees are worth nothing, and their economic thinking is both totally askew and totally conventional. You can always rely on conventional thinking from the Establishment. The moment someone looks like he's thinking independently, he's seen as a danger and asked to go away. Which means getting off the gravy train. And who wants to both be ostracized and lose a fat income?