The current consolidation is most similar to the 2004-2005 consolidation. It is 17 months old and will last two years unless it can blast through $1800 on the next try.
By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
If Gold is able to firm up here and now then it has a good shot to rally back to $1750-$1800 over the next few months. If we get the bullish scenario and a fundamental catalyst shift then expect gold to break past $1800 in Q3. That would mean that Gold consolidated for two years which would be its longest consolidation on record. The longer the consolidation, the more explosive the breakout.
Various sentiment indicators continued to look favorable even as the market began to make some progress. For example, the daily sentiment index for Gold touched 6% yet Gold didn’t make a new low. At the same time we saw a continued reduction in speculative long positions. Bloomberg reported that hedge fund long positions in Gold were reduced to the lowest level since August.
Technically, take a look at the weekly chart. Gold seemed at risk below $1630 yet it closed above $1650 in each of the past four weeks. Now that Gold is starting to turn bullish all time frames ...