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Discovering the Correct Path in Investing

Discovering the Correct Path in Investing | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

... I don’t know what it is about human nature, but people see the future in broad terms, and they will defend that point of view in the face of all evidence. So you have the “Great Depression” crowd that has been predicting a stock market collapse for years now. People always assume I think stocks are going to crash because I’m a bear, but regular readers know I’ve said stocks are going to explode, as they have. These stock market bears fail to account for the change in our monetary system from a gold standard to the floating exchange rate system. They fail to account for our good friend Helicopter Ben who has been balancing out the natural deflation that occurred in real estate with new money. From a social perspective, people in general don’t account for the fact that all these entitlements are a product of the Great Depression- they did not precede it. So in terms of civil unrest, it will be a lot worse than the Great Depression because if people are promised something and don’t get it, they get pissed off.

 

The “we will grow our way out of this crowd” is arguably worse. Debt at this point is interconnected, and since banks are getting nationalized, the situation will ironically get worse. Basically all the failed investments that went on in the private sector ends up on the government balance sheet. The whole point of getting interest on a bond is to hedge against the risk that the bond will default. If the government makes everyone whole, bankers are the only ones celebrating. The average person is the one who suffers under the weight of higher taxes and austerity. So trust me, if you talk to anyone in the investment community, they will have blinders on, especially if they are a low-level employee (people my age). The people who actually investment successfully in all environments understand a lot better how things are interconnected, and they will just ride whatever wave the government creates.

 

Debt is also growing globally at a much faster rate than revenue ...

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LearCapital | Download Lear Gold & Silver Daily Today!

LearCapital | Download Lear Gold & Silver Daily Today! | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Download the Free Lear Gold & Silver Daily Today!

 

Stay on top of the latest breaking commodities market news, coin prices, real time charts and special promotions from Lear Capital's “Lear Gold and Silver Daily” app for both iOS  and Android devices .

 

The Lear Gold and Silver Daily app is a special new benefit brought to you by Lear Capital at no additional cost.

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Puerto Rico Governor Speaks Truth To Hedge Fund Speculators: "The Debts Is Not Payable.....I Will Not Kick the Can"

Puerto Rico Governor Speaks Truth To Hedge Fund Speculators: "The Debts Is Not Payable.....I Will Not Kick the Can" | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
By MICHAEL CORKERY and MARY WILLIAMS WALSH at The New York Times

Puerto Rico’s governor, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts, an admission that will probably have wide-reaching financial repercussions.

The governor, Alejandro García Padilla, and senior members of his staff said in an interview last week that they would probably seek significant concessions from as many as all of the island’s creditors, which could include deferring some debt payments for as long as five years or extending the timetable for repayment.

“The debt is not payable,” Mr. García Padilla said. “There is no other option. I would love to have an easier option. This is not politics, this is math.”

It is a startling admission from the governor of an island of 3.6 million people, which has piled on more municipal bond debt per capita than any American state.
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Why Greece's plight hits a lot closer to home than you think

Why Greece's plight hits a lot closer to home than you think | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Now you know why the Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates a long time ago — or even as recently as earlier this month.
Greece, you might have heard, is in bad financial shape. We’ve been hearing about these problems for years, but it finally came to a head when Germany over the past few weeks said “genug!” — “enough!” — and demanded that Greece make cuts in its government pension system if it wanted another bailout.
Negotiations have been exhaustive and exhausting. And for weeks, officials in Greece and in other EU countries — off the record, of course — have been spilling the beans that a bailout deal was just around the corner, was being worked on, was near completion or whatever other optimistic phrase that could have come out of the mouth of Pollyanna herself.
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Greece Is the Canary in the Coal Mine

Greece Is the Canary in the Coal Mine | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Bill Bonner explains why empty ATMs in Greece foreshadow what will soon happen here in the U.S. Read on to see what he believes could soon happen to your savings...
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oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Greece, Democracy and Magical Thinking

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Greece, Democracy and Magical Thinking | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Debt is the ultimate political aphrodisiac, for it enables an orgy of consumption and a bacchanalia of spending on the backs of children and the yet unborn who don't vote.
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Jesse's Café Américain: China, World Reserve Currencies, the SDR, and an Emerging 'Gold Standard'

Jesse's Café Américain: China, World Reserve Currencies, the SDR, and an Emerging 'Gold Standard' | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

“Gold has worked down from Alexander's time. When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory.”

Bernard M. Baruch

I thought this was interesting, particularly given the source of the interview at Bloomberg News.

It is short and so a little bit of a light touch perhaps, but a nice overview nonetheless.
 
One little point of fact I would raise is that the comparison of China M2 and the US M2 is not the whole story.  Since China is not a particularly international currency their M2 is probably a significant subset of their overall issuance. 
 
But in the case of the US, M2 does not account for 'eurodollars', which the Fed intentionally stopped tracking some years ago 'to save money' and thereby stopped issuing M3 figures.  This is a significant factor for the world's reserve currency as you might imagine, and a glaring omission in the validityof the comparison.

A key factor would be their price peg mechanism vis a vis the dollar, and any redeemability features.

They must approach this carefully, because the Anglo-American Banks and Funds will be ...

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SoT #40 – Paul Craig Roberts: Greece / TPP – Omens The West Is Collapsing | Investment Research Dynamics

SoT #40 – Paul Craig Roberts: Greece / TPP – Omens The West Is Collapsing | Investment Research Dynamics | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Everything in this country is becoming Third World – nothing functions anymore.   –  Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Shadow of Truth, in reference to the completely rigged financial markets and failed democracy in the United States

Based on the reaction tonight by the stock market futures to the EU/Greek situation – the S&P 500 futures are down 25 pts/1.2% – I would hazard the opinion that the zombies on CNBC were slighly off-base when they asserted last week that a Greek default was already “priced into the market.”

This idiocy displayed on CNBC is emblematic of the extreme degree to which propaganda has infected our media.  But it also highlights the degree to which the American public has willingly turned a blind eye to the Orwellian fog that has completely enveloped our system.

A perfect example of a dysfunctional financial market is the Comex silver market.
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The Economic Collapse Blog Has Issued A RED ALERT For The Last Six Months Of 2015

The Economic Collapse Blog Has Issued A RED ALERT For The Last Six Months Of 2015 | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

I have never done anything like this before.  Ever since I started The Economic Collapse Blog in late 2009, I have never issued any kind of “red alert” for any specific period of time.  As an attorney, I was trained to be level-headed and to only come to conclusions that were warranted by the evidence.  So this is not something that I am doing lightly.  Based on information that I have received, things that I have been told, and thousands of hours of research that have gone into the publication of more than 1,300 articles about our ongoing economic collapse, I have come to the conclusion that a major financial collapse is imminent.  Therefore, I am issuing a RED ALERT for the last six months of 2015.

To clarify, when I say “imminent” I do not mean that it will happen within the next 48 hours.  And I am not saying that our problems will be “over” once we get to the end of 2015.  In fact, I believe that the truth is that our problems will only be just beginning as we enter 2016. ...

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Richard Russell - Big Money Now Panicking As Legendary Economist John Williams Issues A Dire Warning - King World News

Richard Russell - Big Money Now Panicking As Legendary Economist John Williams Issues A Dire Warning - King World News | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Richard Russell:  "Of everything I read there is one item that bothers me, it’s the newsletter by John Williams titled Shadow Government Statistics. But strangely, I never see him quoted. Here’s what he says in his latest mailing:


"Broad outlook is unchanged: economy remains in downturn. Dollar faces massive decline with ongoing implications for a hyperinflation crisis. The US economy remains in ongoing downturn, while the US dollar faces a massive decline, with implications for a meaningful upturn in inflation evolving into a great hyperinflationary crisis. Signs of systemic instability are increasing anew."


Williams' report is based on cutting through the government and Federal Reserve propaganda and giving us the real facts. Williams believes that the US never grew out of the great recession and is still in recession. 


The question I ask is why nobody is quoting Williams on the economy ...

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Jefferson’s Three Stages of Government | Armstrong Economics

We are moving toward government by sheer force. This is the third and final stage of government as identified by Thomas Jefferson. Traditionally, government begins to lose power and as it does, it tightens the noose around the economy. FATCA is the classic example of the final stage – Government by Force. There is never the realization that the best means to govern the people is by reward the same as you train a dog or a fish to do tricks. If you train by force (punishment) you end up with the animal eating the trainer and in human terms that is civil unrest or revolution.

Jefferson explained:

“Societies exist under three forms sufficiently distinguishable.

1)Without government, as among our Indians.
2)Under governments wherein the will of every one has a just influence, as is the case in England in a slight degree, and in our states in a great one.
3)Under governments of force: as is the case in all other monarchies and in most of the other republics.

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Richard Russell - The Greatest And Most Destructive Of All Bear Markets Is Coming, Gold, The Great Unwind And A Critical Lesson - King World News

Richard Russell - The Greatest And Most Destructive Of All Bear Markets Is Coming, Gold, The Great Unwind And A Critical Lesson - King World News | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
After six years of creating an ocean of fiat money, it’s incredible, but now we learn that the US economy is again near recession. The Fed is intent on raising rates, but raising rates in a weak economy would almost guarantee trouble. 

Thus the fed has backed itself into a corner. They misjudged the healthy instincts of the American people: the retail public has turned to saving and getting rid of debt. Meanwhile, stock valuations are part of the reality. What I’m afraid of, or what I foresee, is a huge crash followed by a relentless bear market.
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Is The Gold Market Setting Up For A Historic Worldwide Mania? - King World News

Is The Gold Market Setting Up For A Historic Worldwide Mania? - King World News | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Rick Rule:  “Gold is already in a bull market in every currency except the U.S. dollar.  The U.S. dollar hegemony is more due to the fact that there is a lack of fiat competition among other currencies then an underlying strength in the U.S. dollar.  In that sense the gold market reminds me very much of the gold market that existed in 2000 – 2001….
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Federal Reserve System a Run Away Machine-G. Edward Griffin | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Federal Reserve System a Run Away Machine-G. Edward Griffin | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  (Early Sunday Release)

Edward Griffin, author of “The Creature from Jekyll Island,” says the global monetary system is out of control. Griffin contends, “There is nothing that can be done about it. This thing is a runaway machine.  I would feel much better if these political figures would say hey, this is out of our control right now.  We need a substantial change in the system. . . . We need more honesty.  People have to stand up and say we are in for a tough time.  There is no easy way out of this.  We are in for a tough time.  Hang on to your seatbelts.  We are coming into the rapids now.  We need that kind of honesty, but we are not getting it because most of these guys and gals in Washington are thinking well, it’s going to be bad, but at least I’m in a good spot.  They are more worried about themselves and their families than they are worried about the nation.”
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The Emergence Of Orwellian Newspeak And The Death Of Free Speech | Zero Hedge

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“If you don’t want a man unhappy politically, don’t give him two sides to a question to worry him; give him one. Better yet, give him none. Let him forget there is such a thing as war. If the government is inefficient, top-heavy, and tax-mad, better it be all those than that people worry over it…. Give the people contests they win by remembering the words to more popular songs or the names of state capitals or how much corn Iowa grew last year. Cram them full of noncombustible data, chock them so damned full of ‘facts’ they feel stuffed, but absolutely ‘brilliant’ with information. Then they’ll feel they’re thinking, they’ll get a sense of motion without moving. And they’ll be happy, because facts of that sort don’t change.” ? Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451
How do you change the way people think? You start by changing the words they use.

In totalitarian regimes—a.k.a. police states—where conformity and compliance are enforced at the end of a loaded gun, the government dictates what words can and cannot be used. In countries where the police state hides behind a benevolent mask and disguises itself as tolerance, the citizens censor themselves, policing their words and thoughts to conform to the dictates of the mass mind.
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oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Global Template for Collapse: The Enchanting Charms of Cheap, Easy Credit

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Global Template for Collapse: The Enchanting Charms of Cheap, Easy Credit | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Cheap, easy credit has created moral hazard and nurtured magical thinking throughout the global economy.
According to polls, the majority of Greek citizens want the benefits of membership in the euro/EU and the end of EU-imposed austerity. The idea that these are mutually exclusive doesn't seem to register.
This is the discreet charm of magical thinking: it promises an escape from the difficulties of hard choices, tough trade-offs, the disruption of vested interests and most painfully, the breakdown of the debt machine that has enabled the distribution of swag to virtually everyone in the system (a torrent to those at the top, a trickle to the majority at the bottom, but swag nonetheless).
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Bill Fleckenstein - This Is Only The Beginning Of A Massive Global Crisis And Full-Blown Panic, Plus A Bonus Q&A - King World News

Bill Fleckenstein - This Is Only The Beginning Of A Massive Global Crisis And Full-Blown Panic, Plus A Bonus Q&A - King World News | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital

June 29 (King World News) – As everyone now knows, the weekend saw a trifecta of major news. Obviously, the first piece of news was the calling of the Greek referendum, which basically will lead to a lose/lose choice between chaos and more chaos (more about that below).

Then there was the rate cut and reserve requirement reduction on the part of the Chinese, and lastly, the move on the part of the governor of Puerto Rico, who said the country needed to get out of its "death spiral" and would make creditors take a haircut — something "authorities" and central bankers have been loath to see occur, as they continually try to protect lenders and bond holders worldwide from having to pay for their bad decisions. Besides generalized central bank bad policy and incompetence, not forcing creditors to take a hit has only increased moral hazards….
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The Criminality of The Comex

The Criminality of The Comex | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
How is this even legal? That's a serious question and I'd like a serious answer after the you read what is presented below.

Immediately following the short squeeze in mid-May that resulted in a 10% price move in just five days, the "Large Specs" in silver set out to rebuild (or were tricked into rebuilding) a massive naked short position in Comex silver. As you can see on the chart below, over the past five weeks, these Large Specs have added 41,806 gross naked short contracts to their accumulated position. This drove their total reported position up from 16,891 contracts on May 19 to last Tuesday's 58,697 and is the sole, primary reason for silver falling by $2 over the same time period.
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Click through for the full post. Worth a read. It's mind blowing what is going on in silver on the Comex.

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There Is No Escape - Unprecedented Worldwide Panic And Economic Carnage Is Dead Ahead - King World News

There Is No Escape - Unprecedented Worldwide Panic And Economic Carnage Is Dead Ahead - King World News | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
By Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies

June 27 – (King World News) – Investors are obsessed over predicting the timing of the Fed’s first interest rate hike. Will the Fed raise the Fed funds rate in September, or wait until next year? But it is far more important to get a grasp on the pace of rate hikes. Will it be a one and done move, or does this mark the beginning of an incremental tightening cycle?  Those of us who are not in the inner circle are forced to speculate…. 
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Beginning Of The Ending Sequence :: Jim Sinclair's Mineset

by Bill Holter:

 

Dear CIGAs,

This coming week could be very telling. China just ended a disastrous week and finished just whiskers away from entering bear market (-20%) territory  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/chinas-370-billion-margin-call. Credit markets all over the world are weakening and yields are rising. Greece will not make their June 30 payment(s) and probably go through a referendum to decide whether or not to flip their creditors the bird in a meaningless vote. In fact, Greece will probably "go boom" this week. Their banks and stock markets may not open Monday morning http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/greek-stock-market-may-not-open-monday-greek-officials-warn. Two days later, some sort of plan will need to be concocted to classify their bankruptcy as not a "DEFAULT", otherwise a $3 trillion fuse to a $1.4 quadrillion bomb will be lit! These and more will be very important "mid-term exams", any failure will bleed over into derivatives and become "final and terminal exams" with zero chance of a passing grade! ..

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Every Asset in a Bubble, Except Gold and Silver-Michael Pento | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Every Asset in a Bubble, Except Gold and Silver-Michael Pento | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Money manager Michael Pento thinks the Greek debt crisis is small when you consider the enormously leveraged global economy.  Pento contends, “That’s why I consider Greece as more of a distraction.  It’s a small piece to the puzzle.  You look at debt that extends all across the planet, every asset on the planet is in a bubble.  China is in a bubble.  Japan is in a bubble.  Europe is in a bubble.  The United States is in bubble.  That’s not just stocks.  It’s bonds.  It’s real estate.  It’s diamonds.  It’s art.  Look, China fell 7 ½ % overnight because every housewife and widow in China opened up a margin account, and now, they are wiped out.  The market in China is down 18% in the last week alone, and it’s got a lot more to fall.  Who is there to support that?  This is where the rubber meets the road.  Don’t worry because central banks have our backs.  When has that been the case?  A central bank can monetize unlimited amounts of debt and destroy the currency.  It creates money out of thin air at infinitum without any consequences.  When has that ever been the case?  I am telling you right now, if the Federal Reserve doesn’t get off its ass and start raising interest rates, the free market is going to do it for them.  That’s what is happening today.  You see the 10-year Treasury is at 2.47% and rising. . . . You cannot continue to print unlimited amounts of money and have everything be quiescent.  It is going to come back and bite investors in the butt shortly.”
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In gold we still trust! – Incrementum’s 140 page positive gold analysis

Ronni Stoeferle and Mark Valek of Liechtenstein-based asset management company Incrementum AG’s hugely comprehensive annual treatise on gold and all the factors driving the gold market has just been released.  As always it is entitled “In Gold We Trust”.  This is always perhaps the best available source of information and statistics for gold followers and particularly for those who follow the Austrian School of Economics.

The 2015 edition of the report contains a wealth of insights for all types of investors. It takes a look at the big picture in the financial system, from the point of view of the unusual monetary policies. This is the ninth edition of the report. Below is the executive summary from the report, as well as a link to the report itself to be downloaded or read online:

After the barely averted implosion of the financial system in autumn of 2008, we are now in the seventh year of world-wide central bank experimentation. We have all become guinea pigs of an unprecedented attempt at re-inflation, the outcome of which remains uncertain. Questionable monetary policy ventures like quantitative easing and negative interest rates are a direct consequence of a systemic addiction to inflation.
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There’s Something Wrong With Growth All Around The Planet---It’s The Serial Bubble Age Since 1995

There’s Something Wrong With Growth All Around The Planet---It’s The Serial Bubble Age Since 1995 | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
There weren’t any surprises in the “final” GDP update for Q1. Going back to -0.2%, the same interpretations still apply, especially and including the inventory contribution. Economists and policymakers want to talk particularly about how Q1 is prone to “residual seasonality” but that is missing the bigger part of the problem. Whether Q1 was -0.2% or +2% doesn’t really matter, as what truly makes this a dangerous economic situation is that Q1 and all the prior quarters were not a steady +4%.

To listen to economists today is to suggest that such an expectation amounts to wishful thinking, and that such “normal” growth is no longer. That sentiment may apply, but only to the narrow manner in which orthodox economics can integrate real world factors. In other words, “they” accept that there is something wrong but cannot answer the relevant and primary question as to what that might be.
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Crying Wolf? :: Jim Sinclair's Mineset

by Bill Holter:

 

We have all from time to time tried to help others, friends and family, by pointing them toward reality. For our troubles and efforts we have been viewed as the "squirrely" guy/gal with a tinfoil hat who see’s everything as a conspiracy. We have lost friends and even had family cringe when holiday get togethers were planned because no one wants to be exposed to our "craziness". Worse than any disease or even leprosy, anyone spouting Austrian economics or even "common sense" (almost extinct today) has been shoved into the outcast corner by the mass delusional majority. Over the last few years, "theory after theory" has become fact after FACT after FACT! There can no longer be any question, conspiracy to delude and defraud has run rampant and is a day to day operation in the Western world.

Originally my thought was to write this piece about and around the perfect response, "but you do agree the government is bankrupt, right?". I say this because almost anyone (in the U.S.), no matter what age, sex, religion, race or financial status will generally agree with this. For those who don’t agree, it is better to leave well enough alone, this is a subset living in their own delusional world.

For those who do agree "the government is broke", they are broken down into basic subsets. ...

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The Shocking Truth As Worldwide Economies Barely Survive - King World News

The Shocking Truth As Worldwide Economies Barely Survive - King World News | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
By Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies

June 21 – (King World News) – Wall Street carnival barkers are relishing in the fantasy that the economy has finally achieved escape velocity. Therefore, they accept with alacrity that this is the primary reason why interest rates have started to rise. However, the fact still remains that for the first half of 2015 GDP growth will probably be less than 1%….
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It's Already In The Market? :: Jim Sinclair's Mineset

You have heard the phrase many times "it’s already in the market", meaning if "something" or some sort of event happens it is already factored in to prices.  I was overseas last week, travelled much of the week and stayed in a hotel that had only two English speaking channels …one of which was CNBC.  I cannot tell you how many talking heads were paraded forth whom all parroted the same pabulum, "a Greek default is already factored in the market".  Really?  REALLY? 

For CNBC or any media outlet to downplay a Greek default is plain evil deceit at its core.  We have looked at this many times and from many angles, Greece owes close to 350 billion euros and when the amount of written derivatives are included we are probably talking well over 3 trillion euros!  Yes, the talking heads keep saying "much of the Greek debt is now off of the banks balance sheets and is now owned by the ECB itself".  Does this make it any better?  Or could it make the situation even worse because now a central bank has its balance sheet in peril and exposed?
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MASS EXODUS FROM GREEK BANKING SYSTEM AS COUNTRY NEARS DEFAULT SPIKES INTEREST IN PRECIOUS METALS, BITCOIN

MASS EXODUS FROM GREEK BANKING SYSTEM AS COUNTRY NEARS DEFAULT SPIKES INTEREST IN PRECIOUS METALS, BITCOIN | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
The current situation is Greece is coming down to the wire, with Greece having less than 15 days to pay more than $1 billion in debt repayments to its international creditors. The prospect of a Greece default has led European leaders to prepare contingency plans and US officials saying their country should do the same. A major puzzle piece to the eurozone project, Greece, is on the precipice of becoming a poor country to the eurozone’s south.

Opinion in Greece is split. The Bank of Greece has given plenty of warning about the reality of default, while parliament’s speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou of the Syriza party published a report from the “Debt Truth Committee” saying that Greece’s debt is “odious” and should not be repaid:
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