by TF Metals:
"Not that numbers like today's should surprise anyone around here but, for perspective, we should probably take a few minutes to discuss the methodology.
"First of all, the NFP numbers are always going to be part of the government MOPE and the pro-government shills in the media are always going to provide the necessary SPIN. That said, any discussion needs to begin with the report methodology itself. Namely, how can the BLS be expected to provide an accurate picture of November employment when we are only barely beginning the month of December? The answer is: They can't. The only way that an employment report can be cranked out so quickly is through the use of statistics and, frankly, guesswork.
"And here's the rub...the "headline number", the stated unemployment rate, is simply a fraction. The BLS takes total labor pool and subtracts out the number of people that it thinks are actually working. From there, you divide ..." Click over to read the rest of his analysis.