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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: US Manufacturing ISM ...

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: US Manufacturing ISM ... | Global Economy | Scoop.it
Mish's financial blog covers global news and macroeconomic events regarding the world economy. The blog's primary focus is inflation, deflation, and hyperinflation topics, especially currencies, gold, silver, crude, oil, energy ...
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Seven Themes for the Coming Decade

Seven Themes for the Coming Decade | Global Economy | Scoop.it

This article discusses social, technoloical, ecnomic, ecological and political themes for the coming decade:
1) Go East: The economic centre of the map is shifting east again, which stresses the importance of the up-coming marked in the Asain and Latin American markets.
2) Urbanize: Urbanization helps the fast grow in population, however the lacking transportation-related resources are a problem. Population will continue growing rapidly. There might be a demand shift towards consumer goods, education, etc.
3) Good to the Last Drop: Food shortages, water problems and poil production will grow, which makes a physical resource effecient production more important
4) Digitize Me: Younger generations are living more in the Now (saving less) and mass communication is becoming more and more a trend. Informational content becomes more important than material content.
5) Smarter, Faster, Stronger: Towards singularity a fast technological growth. Important technoligies might be 3D Printing, Graphene, Robotics, Energy Storage, Polymer Electronics.
6) Stuck in Neutral: High levels of government debt, lead either to austerity or inflation. Uncertainty and Ineffeciancy of current political systems opens the door for radical elements. Countermovements might be an increase in government authority.
7) Gray Boom: In US and Europe people are extendin every phase of their life cycle. More time is spent in adolescence, Adults are delaying retirement. This opens and shift towards part-time employment and smlal business.


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American Migration - Interactive Map

American Migration - Interactive Map | Global Economy | Scoop.it

Americans are enormously mobile: 37.5 million people moved from one house to another last year, with 4.3 million of them moving between states. This mobility makes us efficient seekers of economic improvement—moving into, and then leaving, cities like Phoenix as their fortunes rise and fall.

This interactive visualization, based on IRS data, illustrates these patterns by tracing inward and outward moves for every county in the country. Each move had its own motivations, but in aggregate they ­reflect the geographical marketplace during the boom and bust of the last decade: Migrants flock to Las Vegas in 2005 in search of cheap, luxurious housing, then flee in 2009 as the city’s economy collapses; Miami beckons retirees from the North but offers little to its working-age residents, who leave for the West. Even fast-growing boomtowns like Charlotte, N.C., lose residents to their outlying counties as the demand for exurban tract-housing pushes workers ever outward.


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Social Dynamics of Science : Scientific Reports : Nature Publishing Group

Social Dynamics of Science : Scientific Reports : Nature Publishing Group | Global Economy | Scoop.it

In the proposed model, which we call SDS (Social Dynamics of Science), we build a social network of collaborations whose nodes represent scholars, linked by coauthored papers as illustrated in Figure a. Each scholar is represented by a list of disciplines indicating the scientific fields they have been working on, and every discipline has a list of papers. Similarly, each link is represented by a list of disciplines with associated papers describing the collaborations between two scholars. The social network starts with one scholar writing one paper in one discipline. The network then evolves as new scholars join, new papers are written, and new disciplines emerge over time.

At every time step, a new paper is added to the network. Its first author is chosen uniformly at random, so that every scholar has the same chance to publish a paper. In modeling the choice of collaborators, we aim to capture a few basic intuitions: (i) scholars who have collaborated before are likely to do so again; (ii) scholars with common collaborators are likely to collaborate with each other; (iii) it is easier to choose collaborators with similar than dissimilar background; and (iv) scholars with many collaborations have higher probability to gain additional ones23, 24. We model these behaviors through a biased random walk25, illustrated in Fig. 2(b). The random walk traverses the collaboration network starting at the node corresponding to the first author. At each step, the walker decides to stop at the current node i with probability pw, or to move to an adjacent node with probability 1 – pw. In the latter case a neighbor j is selected according to the transition probability where wij is the weight of the edge connecting scholars i and j, that is, the number of papers that i and j have coauthored. Each visited node becomes an additional collaborator. Note that the walk may result in a single author.

Each paper is characterized by one main topic and possibly additional, secondary topics. The discipline that is shared by the majority of authors is selected as the main topic of the paper. Each coauthor acquires membership in this main topic, to model exposure of scholars to new disciplines through collaboration. Additionally, a paper with authors from multiple disciplines inherits the union of these disciplines as topics. This choice is motivated by a desire to capture highly multidisciplinary efforts that are likely to lead to the emergence of new fields. This mechanism could be modified to reflect a more conservative notion of discipline by adopting a stricter rule for discipline inheritance.

At every time step, with probability pn, we also add a new scholar to the network. The parameter pn regulates the ratio of papers to scholars. The new scholar is the first author of the paper created at that time step. To generate other collaborators, an existing scholar is first selected uniformly at random as the first coauthor. Then the random walk procedure is followed to pick additional collaborators. The new scholar acquires the main topic of the paper.

We introduce a novel mechanism to model the evolution of disciplines by splitting and merging communities in the social collaboration network. The idea, motivated by the earlier observations from the APS data, is that the birth or decline of a discipline should correspond to an increase in the modularity of the network. Two such events may occur at each time step with probability pd.

 


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Martin Daumiller's curator insight, January 18, 2013 2:46 AM

The proposed model manages to describe and evaluate the relationships between scientific disciplines, scholars and publications by focusing on the interatctions between scholars. Comparing the data this model yielded in a computer simulation to realistic historical facts, a high empirical validty could be shown. It thus provides support for the key role of social interactions in the world of science, describing the number of publications and emergence of new disciplines.

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Aerial Data Visualisation Reveals Life In The United States

Aerial Data Visualisation Reveals Life In The United States | Global Economy | Scoop.it

PBS is exploring the hidden patterns and rhythms that make America work. They are taking this data and visualizing it in a series being called, “America Revealed.”


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Alive and well: Judaism is enjoying an unexpected revival

Alive and well: Judaism is enjoying an unexpected revival | Global Economy | Scoop.it

Judaism is flourishing, both in Israel, where 43% of the world’s Jews now live, and throughout the Jewish diaspora. The Jews as a nation are flourishing too. Israelis, for all their problems, are the 14th-happiest people in the world, happier than the British or the French, according to a recent global happiness report commissioned by the UN. In the diaspora Jewish life has never been so free, so prosperous, so unthreatened.

 

“Celebrities used to change their names to hide their Jewish identity. Now they talk on television about how they try to instil Jewish identity into their half-Jewish children. Take [the actress] Gwyneth Paltrow. Her father is a descendant of rabbis; her mother is a Protestant from middle America. She writes in her food blog about her favourite kosher recipes for the seder [the family prayer-dinner celebrating the Passover spring festival]. Seders are popular with non-Jewish people. Bar-mitzva [the coming-of-age-ceremony] has become stylish, too. Kids see it on television; they see their friends having it—and they want it as well.”

 

Israelis, for all their problems, are the 14th-happiest people in the world. But there are deep religious and political divisions, mostly centred on Israel. . .


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IMAGE: Unprecedented Greenland Ice Melt Stuns NASA Scientists

IMAGE: Unprecedented Greenland Ice Melt Stuns NASA Scientists | Global Economy | Scoop.it

Extent of surface melt over Greenland’s ice sheet on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right). Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. In the image, the areas classified as “probable melt” (light pink) correspond to those sites where at least one satellite detected surface melting. The areas classified as “melt” (dark pink) correspond to sites where two or three satellites detected surface melting. The satellites are measuring different physical properties at different scales and are passing over Greenland at different times. As a whole, they provide a picture of an extreme melt event about which scientists are very confident.


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Sour Global Economy Drains Confidence From Deal Makers | Forex ...

Despite a flurry of last-minute deals, the market for mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings stayed in the doldrums for the first half of the year, as the European fiscal crisis and a bumpy economy sapped corporate ...
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Leadership Through the Ages

Leadership Through the Ages | Global Economy | Scoop.it

An infographic designed to assist in leadership development courses by helping participants to increase their awareness of leaders and leadership.


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Is the Web Driving Us Mad?

Is the Web Driving Us Mad? | Global Economy | Scoop.it
Questions about the Internet’s deleterious effects on the mind are at least as old as hyperlinks. But even among Web skeptics, the idea that a new technology might influence how we think and feel—let alone contribute to a great American crack-up—was considered silly and naive, like waving a cane at electric light or blaming the television for kids these days. Instead, the Internet was seen as just another medium, a delivery system, not a diabolical machine. It made people happier and more productive. And where was the proof otherwise?

Now, however, the proof is starting to pile up. The first good, peer-reviewed research is emerging, and the picture is much gloomier than the trumpet blasts of Web utopians have allowed. The current incarnation of the Internet—portable, social, accelerated, and all-pervasive—may be making us not just dumber or lonelier but more depressed and anxious, prone to obsessive-compulsive and attention-deficit disorders, even outright psychotic. Our digitized minds can scan like those of drug addicts, and normal people are breaking down in sad and seemingly new ways.


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Club of Rome: New Report issues a warning about humanity’s ability to survive without a major change in direction

Club of Rome: New Report issues a warning about humanity’s ability to survive without a major change in direction | Global Economy | Scoop.it

n the Report author Jorgen Randers raises essential questions: How many people will the planet be able to support? Will the belief in endless growth crumble? Will runaway climate change take hold? Where will quality of life improve, and where will it decline? Using painstaking research, and drawing on contributions from more than 30 thinkers in the field, he concludes that:

While the process of adapting humanity to the planet’s limitations has started, the human response could be too slow.The current dominant global economies, particularly the United States, will stagnate. Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten leading emerging economies (referred to as ‘BRISE’ in the Report) will progress.But there will still be 3 billion poor in 2052.China will be a success story, because of its ability to act. Global population will peak in 2042, because of falling fertility in urban areas Global GDP will grow much slower than expected, because of slower productivity growth in mature economies.CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow and cause +2°C in 2052; temperatures will reach +2.8°C in 2080, which may well trigger self-reinforcing climate change.

The Report says the main cause of future problems is the excessively short-term predominant political and economic model. “We need a system of governance that takes a more long-term view”, said Professor Randers, speaking in Rotterdam. “It is unlikely that governments will pass necessary regulation to force the markets to allocate more money into climate friendly solutions, and must not assume that markets will work for the benefit of humankind”.


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How social status determines your health

How social status determines your health | Global Economy | Scoop.it

A first study tracking baboons over thirty years shows that high-ranking males are more less sick than low-ranking ones and theorizes that the biological effects of high social status (testosterone, high glucocorticoids, high reproduction) do not have negative effects on the health - on the contrary!
Another paper recently published tracked the blood levels of female rhesus monkeys: "The authors took blood samples from the monkeys to profile gene expression – though only after dominance order had been established. It would have been great had they done so before hand to see if there were genes predictive of social status, or if expression changed in any appreciable way. But no matter. By using a PCA analysis – basically, finding the combinations of genes that most explained the variance in the behavior – they found that the first principle component was predictive of social status. This tells us that gene expression is intertwined with your social status."

Consistent with the previous paper, there was the largest cluster of enriched genes were immune-related. This included interleukin signaling, T-cell activation, and chemokine/cytokine inflammation. Perhaps, then, the reason high-ranking males heal faster is because the right immune-related genes were enriched.


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Why do Nigerian Scammers Say They are from Nigeria?

Cormac Herley, looked into so-called “Nigerian scams,” named for the African nation where the scammers often claim to reside. The emails typically seek a cash investment and promise a lofty payoff, often linking themselves to off-shore corporations or royalty. Herley’s algorithm-rich analysis found that the obvious spam clichés are a deliberate attempt to weed out potential victims who are too savvy to fall for the scheme—and in turn make the most of the human capital required to secure funds from the people who are duped.

"Since gullibility is unobservable, the best strategy is to get those who possess this quality to self-identify," Herley writes, and the scheme ingeniously lines up the most gullible recipients in one swoop. Those who are left "represent a tiny subset of the overall population" but nevertheless a lucrative one for the spammers.

This also explains the apparent overabundance of the emails from Nigeria, since the country is so widely associated with Web scams. Though some of the first such schemes originated there in the 1980s during a period of high unemployment for well-educated young professionals, most launch elsewhere today, including the United States.

 


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Pop by Lat and Pop by Long

Pop by Lat and Pop by Long | Global Economy | Scoop.it

Almost 90% of the worlds population live in the northern hemisphere. This map has been floating around the internet for quite some time now and it is not quite sure about how to interpret the data, but there are some quite interesting aspects about it:

-the general trend of the graph is to taper out towards the south; at its very end, it does so in a shape remarkably similar to the last piece of (inhabited) land, Patagonia.

-Considering that habitable zones in theory should be equidistant from the equator, it's even more shocking how much more people live north of that line. Granted, there is more land. But still.

-It's a fair guess, though, that those spikes are not caused by Africa's northern shores (Cairo, and by extension Egypt excepted), but by the big population centres on the Indian subcontinent and in China. And by the combined weight of the US and Mexican population.

 


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How Google Builds Its Maps—and What It Means for the Future of Everything

How Google Builds Its Maps—and What It Means for the Future of Everything | Global Economy | Scoop.it
An exclusive look inside Ground Truth, the secretive program to build the world's best accurate maps.

 

Behind every Google Map, there is a much more complex map that's the key to your queries but hidden from your view. The deep map contains the logic of places: their no-left-turns and freeway on-ramps, speed limits and traffic conditions. This is the data that you're drawing from when you ask Google to navigate you from point A to point B -- and last week, Google showed me the internal map and demonstrated how it was built. It's the first time the company has let anyone watch how the project it calls GT, or "Ground Truth," actually works.


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Clever Science Ads Billboard

Clever Science Ads Billboard | Global Economy | Scoop.it

Here is a series of brilliant billboard ads dedicated to promoting science in Vancouver, by Science World Museum in collaboration with Rethink Canada...


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21 Emotions with No English Word Equivalents

21 Emotions with No English Word Equivalents | Global Economy | Scoop.it

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Martin Daumiller's curator insight, January 18, 2013 3:26 AM

Design student Pei-Ying Lin took Parrot|s Classification of Human Emotions as a base and tried to add different emotions to it, which don't exist in English, but in other languages, such as Hebrew, Russian, German, Italian, Mandarin, etc.

She tried to express similarities and closeness to other emotions and managed to visualize the relationship between the foreign emotion-words and the English ones.

In Lins words, her project is one "that investigates human emotions and languages. By re-looking at how humans communicate, it searches for a way to connect our inner self and personal emotions, through the design of a personal language and several new ways of communication. It is an investigation of how language can be improvised to connect our emotions in this multilingual world."

This is a nice example and visualization of the culture-rootedness of emotions. It underlines the historical and social background necessary for the development of a certain set-of-mind required to feel and express specific emotions.

Sophie Martin's comment, March 13, 2013 4:30 PM
full size http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-01/emotions-which-there-are-no-english-words-infographic
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Are You Worth More Dead Than Alive?

Are You Worth More Dead Than Alive? | Global Economy | Scoop.it

If you have a life insurance policy, and are going to die soon, but you need money now to pay for things instead of having a payout go to your beneficiaries after you’re dead, you can try to go for a life settlement (or viatical settlement if you’re terminally ill). Basically, what happens is you get a buyer to pay you cash in exchange for that buyer to be named the beneficiary on your policy.

Betting on when somebody will die seems so creepy that it’s hard to believe the practice is legal. Sure, people pay good money to buy life-insurance policies, so perhaps that should confer the right to sell them as well. But the freedoms of ownership are not unlimited, especially when it comes to anything related to life and limb. Possession of and control over what happens to your own body is a fundamental human right. Nonetheless, that hasn’t stopped cultures from banning prostitution, organ sales or for-profit surrogate parenthood. The justification for such infringements upon bodily sovereignty is that people should be protected from financial incentives to harm themselves, and you could argue that a life settlement creates just such an incentive. A potential recipient, for instance, could try to win a larger settlement by offering a guarantee — if I’m not dead in, say, five years, I promise to kill myself so that you can collect the insurance money. That situation is admittedly far-fetched, but history has shown that when there’s a payday offered for someone’s demise, unscrupulous people will step in to hurry death along. In 16th- and 17th-century England, for example, it was legal to take out a life-insurance policy on a complete stranger, and as the historian Sharon Ann Murphy wrote, “these speculative life policies too often resulted in the murder of the insured.”

 

 


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A korean Propaganda film about Propaganda

What might sound sarcastic at the beginning does contain some true and interesting points to think about.

by Lesley Rodgers on Personal Power


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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: US Manufacturing ISM ...

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: US Manufacturing ISM ... | Global Economy | Scoop.it
Mish's financial blog covers global news and macroeconomic events regarding the world economy. The blog's primary focus is inflation, deflation, and hyperinflation topics, especially currencies, gold, silver, crude, oil, energy ...
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: In 2010, Obama Promised ...

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: In 2010, Obama Promised ... | Global Economy | Scoop.it
Mish's financial blog covers global news and macroeconomic events regarding the world economy. The blog's primary focus is inflation, deflation, and hyperinflation topics, especially currencies, gold, silver, crude, oil, energy ...
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Who Was Ponzi & What Was His Scheme

Who Was Ponzi & What Was His Scheme | Global Economy | Scoop.it

Investigators are trying to figure out whether the financial fraud allegedly perpetrated by Bernard L. Madoff was, in fact, the largest Ponzi scheme in history. The alleged scam, which cost investors $50 billion, sounds like a classic Ponzi racket.
Ponzi started to recruit investors into his system with the promise of 50% returns in just a few days.Investors would pay their cash in, and sure enough, Ponzi would get them the promised return. Everyone was happy with the results, and word started to spread about this Italian financial wizard. Within two years, he had employees all over the country recruiting new takers for this foolproof investment strategy.
Why is it hard to think of Ponzi’s name without affixing “scheme” to the end of it, then? Ponzi’s underlying “business” – the arbitrage on the postal coupons – wasn’t actually as sound as he claimed. In fact, there wasn’t even really a business. However, since so much money was flowing in from new investors, he could just pay off the returns for the old ones from the new cash.In fact, Ponzi didn’t even need to pay off the old investors, since many of them wanted to reinvest their returns in this wonderful business. Ponzi’s charms made it easy for him to placate any worried customers, and his con looked unstoppable.


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The Logic of Failure by Dietrich Dörner

The Logic of Failure by Dietrich Dörner | Global Economy | Scoop.it

Dietrich Dörner is an authority on cognitive behavior and a psychology professor at the University of Bamberg, Germany. His research shows that our habits as problem solvers are typically counterproductive.
I this book he presents the work of computer simulation models that allowed participants to play the role of a decision maker in various complex settings and shows how they can be applied to real life situations, such as Chernobyl.
Dorner notes: “... real-world decision-making processes are rarely well documented, and it is hard, if not impossible, to reconstruct them. Reports on real processes ... are often unintentionally distorted or even intentionally falsified.” (p. 9)

Some of the ways in which we do so include:

- acting without prior analysis of situations,

- failing to anticipate side effects and long-term repercussions,

- assuming the absence of immediately obvious negative effects means that correct measures have been taken,

- being blinded to emerging needs and situational changes by over-involvement in ongoing projects, and

- being prone to cynical reactions.
Dörner suggests the following ideas to help dealing with complex situations in a better way:
1. Accepting the slowness of human thinking and thus taking more time (especially when it comes to understanding temporal configurations!)

2. Formulating goals in concrete terms: clarifying complex interrelationships carefully

3. Resisting our tendency to economize which promts us to omit certain steps in the thought process or to cimplify them as much as possible

4. Being aware of the human way of wanting to preserve a positive view of one's competence in a form of self-protection

5. Also think about problems we don't have, but might emerge as side effects of our actions.

 


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La planète perd ses langues

La planète perd ses langues | Global Economy | Scoop.it
Près de 4 langues sur 10 ont disparu, sont en danger ou vulnérables, constate le Programme des Nations unies pour l'environnement. Et la détérioration de la planète ne fait qu'accélérer le mouvement.

Les langues représentent "des sources irremplaçables" d'information sur la biodiversité et les relations humaines, explique le PNUE. Il y a un an déjà, à l'occasion de la publication d'une étude sur ce sujet, l'organisation faisait état de la probable disparition de 90 % des langues parlées dans le monde au cours du XXIe siècle. "Les secrets de la nature, contenus dans les chansons, les contes, l'art et l'artisanat des peuples indigènes, peuvent se perdre à jamais, à cause de la mondialisation croissante dans tous les domaines", expliquait alors un groupe d'experts mandatés par le PNUE.


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State of the Internet 2012 [INFOGRAPHIC] – Urban Times

State of the Internet 2012 [INFOGRAPHIC] – Urban Times | Global Economy | Scoop.it

In 2000, 6% of the global population were internet users, now its over 60%.

Derived with stats by Akamai, this fourth quarter 2011 graphic by OnlineUniversities.co - whose success is fueled by increasing availability of internet – explores factors such as global internet connection speeds, attack traffic, network connectivity and more.

Clearly South Korea is (still) internet speed champion with a hugely impressive 17.5 Mbps average connection speed. This is nothing compared to their government’s plans to raise this to a 1 gigabit average within a year. Compare this with the 5.8 Mbps average in the US and the disappointing 5.0Mbps average in the UK. UK estimates are hard to pin down, however, as shown by IS Preview:

"It should be said that Ofcom UK’s latest fixed line broadband ISP speeds study put the national average at a considerably more respectable 6.8Mbps, which is well above Akamai’s estimate. A number of similar UK based surveys have posted even higher results, although Pando Networks (another CDN like Akamai) estimated that we were actually closer to 4.69Mbps. Swings and roundabouts."

Let’s not even get started on the laughable 2.3 Mbps that refers to the global average connection speed (so low it prohibits fully accessing multimedia content). Because it could be far worse, after all. Just think of the other 4.7 billion.


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Bloodlands by Timothy Snyder

Bloodlands by Timothy Snyder | Global Economy | Scoop.it

Bloodlands presents the Second World War with a different perspective: Instead of studying Nazi atrocities or Soviet atrocities separately, he looks at them together and merges the Ukrainian famine, the Holocaust, Stalin’s mass executions and the planned starvation of Soviet POWs to similar reasons. He presents a focus of WW2, as the title suggests, on the Europe between Hitler and Stalin, but shows also that their leading styles where partly not that different and the way they cooperted until 1941, for instance against the Polish people and the Jews. The auther suggests that Hitler and Stalin  shared a certain politics of tyranny by bringing  catastrophes, blaming the enemy of their choice, and then using the death of millions for their political ideas: “In this competition for memory, the Holocaust, the other German mass killing policies, and the Stalinist mass murders became three different histories, even though in historical fact they shared a place and time.”

He stresses that each of them had some kind of a transformative Utopia - but the realisation of only one of them was possible - which lead to some of the most extreme results of the second wold war: A policy of mass murder that could be proclaimed as a kind of ersatz victory.

Each of the dead became a number. Between them, the Nazi and Stalinist regimes murdered more than fourteen million people in the bloodlands. The killing began with a political famine that Stalin directed at Soviet Ukraine, which claimed more than three million lives. It continued with Stalin's Great Terror of 1937 and 1938, in which some seven hundred thousand people were shot, most of them peasants or members of national minorities. The Soviets and the Germans then cooperated in the destruction of Poland and of its educated classes, killing some two hundred thousand people between 1939 and 1941. After Hitler betrayed Stalin and ordered the invasion of the Soviet Union, the Germans starved the Soviet prisoners of war and the inhabitants of besieged Leningrad, taking the lives of more than four million people. In the occupied Soviet Union, occupied Poland, and the occupied Baltic States, the Germans shot and gassed some 5.4 million Jews. The Germans and the Soviets provoked one another to ever greater crimes, as in the partisan wars for Belarus and Warsaw, where the Germans killed about half a million civilians. These atrocities shared a place, and they shared a time: the bloodlands between 1933 and 1945.

 


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