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Will Crude Oil Prices Rise To $60 By Christmas?

Will Crude Oil Prices Rise To $60 By Christmas? | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
With its current deal, OPEC ensured only that there is a floor under crude oil prices, instead of aiming for higher oil prices closer to $60 a barrel.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
What does the crude oil chart forecast? Crude oil has made a nice ascending triangle pattern. If the price breaks out of the $52 levels and sustains the breakout, it gives an upside pattern target of $67. However, the markets have rejected the levels above $52 on December 5, but we should see one more attempt at a breakout above the highs.
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Strong Buying Continues To Fuel The Oil Price Rally

Strong Buying Continues To Fuel The Oil Price Rally | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
As OPEC optimism abounds, oil prices push higher for a fourth consecutive day to start the new week. Here are five things to consider in oil markets today.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
While it is too soon for the latest CFTC data to reflect the market’s response to the OPEC decision, the forward curve is giving us a good indication of what has happened. Short positions by speculators have been closed out amid the post-OPEC meeting euphoria, while oil producers have snapped up short positions along the forward curve, hedging future oil production over the coming years.
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The Fed’s Measure of Inflation is Furthest from American Reality

Since 2012, the Fed has claimed that it would begin to normalize interest rates when the inflation target was reached and unemployment fell below 5%.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
Ben Bernanke first set an official inflation target in January 2012, aiming at 2%. Has it been achieved? Well, it depends on how you measure inflation. There are many to choose from. The Fed has chosen the one that is most suppressed and furthest from the experience of most American households. So the Fed can pretend that inflation is “too low,” whatever that means.
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Why The US Consumer Will Cause The Next Crisis

Why The US Consumer Will Cause The Next Crisis | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
The consumer bull thesis has been predicated on robust job growth and declining unemployment leading to higher wages, in turn driving consumption and GDP.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
The market is materially mispricing the strength of the US consumer whose weakness will lead the US economy into a recession in Q117. The divergence is a result of the top 40% of earners who have accrued 84% of all new income and only 34% of new debt since 2013. This strength has driven headline sales figures and accounted for nearly all deleveraging since the financial crisis.
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Finally The Fed Admits It Has No Clue on Inflation & Investment Spending

Finally The Fed Admits It Has No Clue on Inflation & Investment Spending | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
The Fed myopia sees a low Fed Funds interest rate at zero which has failed to stimulate rising inflation and capital investment.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
The most interesting comment by Fed Chair Janet Yellen was her admission that she and her prestigious voting members don’t have a clue why inflation and capital investment spending have not returned to loftier levels. Then how do they yet expect a significant 250 basis point credit tightening over the next couple of years in an economy muddling along just above “stall” speed?
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Oil Prices Rocked By OPEC Reports – But Can’t Stay Low For Much Longer

Oil Prices Rocked By OPEC Reports – But Can’t Stay Low For Much Longer | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
After reports that Saudi Arabia would offer to cut production in return for Iranian restraint, oil prices dived on reports that agreement would be unlikely.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
Due to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding OPEC intentions, there is likely to be further volatility in US trading on Friday and the potential for significant price gaps at the market open next week. Overall dollar trends will continue to have a significant impact on underlying crude oil prices. Remember, oil prices will not languish at the current depressed levels forever.
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Global Oil could be a True Body Blow to the US Dollar

Global Oil could be a True Body Blow to the US Dollar | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Britain’s old Brent oilfield yields almost no oil at all anymore. It’s nearly drained. So how can a depleted oilfield set the global oil price?
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
What happens when more parties reject the Brent quote as an accurate daily price quote for oil? President Putin has stated many times that he wants to move away from the US dollar in trade. Global oil buyers would soon fall into line & begin paying that basket price. If the Brent oil quote falls apart in Europe — replaced by Urals blend quote — It would be a true body blow to the US dollar.
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Is Putin’s Support For An OPEC Freeze A Game Changer for Crude?

Is Putin’s Support For An OPEC Freeze A Game Changer for Crude? | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Just as OPEC sparked an oil price rally in Feb when they floated the idea of freeze negotiations, OPEC could be interested in talking up another price rally
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
The array of comments from OPEC and Russian officials over the past week could signal that a real effort might be underway to reach a deal on freezing production. Iraq would support a deal; Iran will attend the meeting & the potential for an OPEC deal received an endorsement from a surprising source – Russian President Vladimir Putin threw his weight behind a production freeze.
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The US Dollar Strength Takes Its Toll On Oil Prices Again

The US Dollar Strength Takes Its Toll On Oil Prices Again | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
With Nonfarm Friday on deck, bringing the prospect of a stronger dollar (headwinds for crude), here are 5 things to consider in oil markets today
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
As we exit summer driving season, and as refinery maintenance ramps up, demand eases, and typically… oil prices come under pressure. The return of oversupply fears are clobbering the crude oil complex lower, with gasoline leading the charge. With Nonfarm Friday on deck, bringing the prospect of a stronger dollar, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.
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The SDR Is Designed As A Rescue Operation For The US Dollar

The SDR Is Designed As A Rescue Operation For The US Dollar | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
The US dollar is in a bad condition, though US maintains appearances of strength for the population, among other things through suppression the gold price.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
The IMF created the SDR Substitution Account in 1969. T he core idea is that the SDR Substitution Account Central Banks allows to diversify their existing US dollar reserves in a one-time conversion away from the dollar into IMF’s SDR, comprised of the US dollar, European euro, Japanese yen and British pound, in an off-market transaction, so as not to depress the dollar’s exchange rate.
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Exposing The Link Between Monetary Policy And Social Inequality

Exposing The Link Between Monetary Policy And Social Inequality | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Monetary expansion happens all the time, not just in crises. In fact, the world has grown accustomed to this monetary policy, the new normal – here is why.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
Our monetary policy direction has been prolonging the slowdown since 2008. The longer we wait, the worse the hit we will take. We are going from one bubble to another and are just postponing the inevitable. Under our current system, which has stripped the working class from their savings, they are exposed to greater risks than ever before.
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Here Is Why The US Dollar Collapse Is Imminent

Here Is Why The US Dollar Collapse Is Imminent | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
The US dollar has declined about 4% year-to-date. What’s its outlook? Could it recover losses & continue to move higher, or is it headed down from here?
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
The list of reasons why the US dollar could collapse is getting bigger daily. Here are some factors – Reckless monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. U.S. national debt continues to increase. Other currencies like the Chinese yuan are gaining a significant amount of attention on a global level. Central banks are starting to lose trust in the US dollar as well. Read more…
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Will The Rally In Crude Oil Prices End Today?

Will The Rally In Crude Oil Prices End Today? | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
For now, the squeeze continues & crude oil has surged out of the gates, adding to its weekly gains, up 16% off last weeks lows, almost back in a bull market
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
The market sell off on product market concerns did not lead any notable change in crude oil fundamentals. Refiners have yet to pull back meaningfully on crude oil purchases & crude oil inventory builds are only starting to turn bearish in both the weekly US statistics and globally. US crude oil inventories are set to build above normal over the coming months.
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Global Economy Poised on a Knife-Edge Between Inflation & Deflation

Global Economy Poised on a Knife-Edge Between Inflation & Deflation | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Since Fed targets inflation of 2%, it could allow it to run above 2% for a while, which would be consistent with 2% inflation, given today’s lower level.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
The global economy is poised on a knife-edge between inflation and deflation. The inflationary vector could dominate quickly, based on a combination of Trump deficits & Fed accommodation. Conversely, the deflationary vector could dominate based on fundamental factors such as a strong dollar, deleveraging, demographics & technology combined with premature Fed tightening.
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“Too Many Promises That Can’t be Kept” – The Fed Can’t Raise Rates: Paul Volcker

“Too Many Promises That Can’t be Kept” – The Fed Can’t Raise Rates: Paul Volcker | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
What will happen to the $200 trillion in US obligations as rates start creeping higher, especially since that creep is not due to actual economic growth.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
One can’t really blame the government for continuing its debt-funded spending spree – despite protests to the contrary – after all rates are so low, it would be irrational not to take advantage and add on more debt. However, it is here that the punchline from the Volcker op-ed kicks in, and explains why the Fed is stuck and will find it next to impossible to hike rates.
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Inflation – Difficult to Move, But Once Moving, Hard to Control

Inflation – Difficult to Move, But Once Moving, Hard to Control | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Janet seems to be saying - Bend the rules a bit. Let inflation out of its cage for an inning or two. Maybe it can give growth a boost.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
Three key measures of inflation have recently lurched across the Fed’s threshold of 2%. The recent pickup in gas prices is set to have an even sharper upward impact on the consumer price inflation basket. Inflation can really spin out of control very quickly. If it happens, it would happen very quickly. Inflation is like a supertanker: Hard to get moving. But once moving, hard to stop.
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Why the Coming Wave of Defaults Will Be Devastating

Why the Coming Wave of Defaults Will Be Devastating | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Without stimulus of ever-rising credit, the global economy craters in a self-reinforcing cycle of defaults, deleveraging & collapsing debt-based consumption
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
In an economy based on borrowing, loan defaults & deleveraging matter. Defaults mean loans & bonds won’t be paid back. The owners of the bonds & debt (mortgages, auto loans, etc.) will have to absorb massive losses. Having unleashed tens of trillions of dollars in new credit since 2008, the central banks have simply increased the likelihood & scale of the coming default conflagration.
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The Fed’s Missed Window To Hike Rates & Failed Realizations

The Fed’s Missed Window To Hike Rates & Failed Realizations | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Once again, the Fed not only failed to raise interest rates on economic instability, but once again lowered forecasts for future growth and interest rates.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
What is clear is the Federal Reserve should have chosen to increase rates long ago where such tightening of monetary policy would have been somewhat offset by the continued floods of interventions. The window to lift interest rates appears to have closed which could potentially be a policy nightmare. Eventually something has to give & it will likely not be the outcome the Fed hopes for.
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If the Fed does What it Wants to, the Result will be the Opposite of What it Wants

CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
The US economy is slowing perceptively. What should the Fed be doing? They might want to cut interest rates. Problem. Another tool in the arsenal – cheapen the US dollar. Again there is a problem. Whether that works & what is a good idea are separate issues. Certainly a rate hike would take the stock market down 20%. It’s going to be just the opposite of what the Fed wants.
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Huge Draw in Crude Oil Stocks Prove Ineffective, Will OPEC Meeting Help Oil Prices?

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CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
API reports a 1.4-million-build in US crude oil inventory over last week, much lower than expectations of a 4-million-barrel build, but bursting the bubble (biggest draw in a century) created the week before. Mixed signals from the OPEC nations and a lack of commitment from the larger oil producers indicate that the Algiers meeting could be headed the Doha way.
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History Says Markets Could Crash in the Cruelest Month – September

History Says Markets Could Crash in the Cruelest Month – September | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Is October really the bogeyman it’s cracked up to be? Historically, October has spelled the end of more bear markets than the beginning, as per Investopedia
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
What month is the great menace for markets? September… What could possibly go wrong? Turns out the 30 days ahead are peppered with land mines that could go off with…detonative effects on the market. One of them is Sept. 21. The markets have most definitely not “priced in” a rate hike. It will sell off violently if the Fed goes ahead and raises rates.
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The Biggest Wildcard For Oil Prices Right Now – China

The Biggest Wildcard For Oil Prices Right Now – China | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
If China's oil demand were to disappear, the price of oil would plunge as the already oversupplied market would have a glut of excess production.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
China’s record purchases, along with temporary production outages in Nigeria and Canada, helped rebalance supply and demand in the oil market. However, since that is now over, stopping shipments for the reserve would wipe out about 15% of the country’s imports & the price of oil would plunge as the already oversupplied market would find itself with an unprecedented glut of excess production.
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Negative Interest Rates will Inevitably Result in Complete Economic Destruction

Negative Interest Rates will Inevitably Result in Complete Economic Destruction | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Before exposing the fraud inherent with negative interest rates, it is necessary to examine the evolution of monetary criminality which has brought us here.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
Negative interest rates remove the positive “interest” paid to savers which is supposed to (partially) protect us from the rapacious “real inflation” running at 10+% per year. They go well beyond even this level of economic theft & criminality. Negative interest rates tax capital. How do you “stimulate” an economy by taxing capital? The inevitable result can only be the complete economic destruction.
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Marc Faber Predicts a 50% Correction in Stocks – Rings Alarm Bells

Marc Faber Predicts a 50% Correction in Stocks – Rings Alarm Bells | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Stocks are acting up, the US dollar is falling. Turmoil around the world has never been higher. Ominous shadows lurking in the background, ready to strike.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
Marc Faber is just one more expert who is ringing the alarm bells in stocks. Sadly, the mainstream media continue to dismiss the experts who are trying to warn the masses, stating that we are conspiracy theorist and nothing more. Even though we have been proven right in our predictions time and time again, causing the trash can to nearly overflow with tin foil hats.
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OPEC Rumours Continue To Pull Oil Prices Higher

OPEC Rumours Continue To Pull Oil Prices Higher | Global Economy, Stocks, Commodity & Currency Markets | Scoop.it
Morgan Stanley oil analyst Adam Longson says that the recent jump in oil prices has been driven by traders covering bearish bets.
CommodityTradeMantra's insight:
Oil prices hit one a month high on Monday thanks to speculation about potential producer curbs on supply and new data from market intelligence firm Genscape showing an estimated draw of more than 350,000 barrels per day at the Cushing OK delivery point. Although oil prices reacted stoically on last week’s rig count report, the amount of rigs added to the Permian basin is starting to add up.
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