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Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk
The global and regional developments in security and geopolitics affecting Lebanon and the Region.

This blog is curated by the Geopolitics and Security Program at MEPF. Content, comments and insights on this blog do not reflect or represent the official position of MEPF and should not be considered under any circumstances as political and policy advice. All publication and idea rights belong to their respective owners. Republish, comment and distribute at your own discretion.
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Millions of cars tracked across US in 'massive' real-time DEA spy program

Millions of cars tracked across US in 'massive' real-time DEA spy program | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
American Civil Liberties Union warns scanning of license plates by Drug Enforcement Agency is building a repository of all drivers’ movements
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The Pacific Power Index

The Pacific Power Index: From moguls to migrants, Harvard to Huawei: 50 people shaping the future of the U.S.-China relationship.
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

Constructing it, story by story, and deconstructing it, well, maybe, all at once.

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Anti-austerity Syriza sweeps Greece parliamentary poll

Anti-austerity Syriza sweeps Greece parliamentary poll | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Party's leader Alexis Tsipras, who wants to renegotiate EU and IMF bailout terms, set to become next prime minister.
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What U.S. Intelligence Predicted the World Would Look Like in 2015

What U.S. Intelligence Predicted the World Would Look Like in 2015 | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Shortly before 9/11, officials foresaw a fundamental shift in the nature of power.
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

50 to 60% success is not bad over 15 years.

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Sofia’s Choice

Sofia’s Choice | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Bulgaria is becoming the latest wishbone in the struggle between Moscow's efforts to assert its energy dominance over Europe and the West's efforts to cage…
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

Act no 1: Ukraine

Act no 2: Bulgaria 

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The Afghan Cops Who Never Were

The Afghan Cops Who Never Were | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
The United States spends more than $300 million on Afghan National Police force salaries each year. But the latest audit from the American watchdog for…
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What's holding up Iran nuclear deal?

What's holding up Iran nuclear deal? | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
The US Congress must give diplomacy a real chance and not hinder nuclear negotiations with Iran.
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

"The US intelligence community has clearly stated in its National Intelligence Estimates over the past seven years that Iran has not made a decision to build a nuclear weapon. No one in Iran — and for that matter, anywhere — can stomach that a US congressional leader would so openly follow the leadership of a foreign leader, in total neglect of the stated will and wish of his own president and national security bodies. It is unfortunate that such Israel-pleasing pronouncements by senior American statesmen only serve to further buttress the prevalent Iranian mistrust — including at the level of the supreme leader — of Washington's serious interest in working out a mutually satisfactory deal with Iran."

 

 

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China to invest $20bn in struggling Venezuela

China to invest $20bn in struggling Venezuela | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Beijing agrees to more than $20bn in economic, social, and oil-related projects, as Caracas remains mired in recession.
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

This is pivoting

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China and the United States Are Preparing for War

China and the United States Are Preparing for War | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
At a Nov. 12 news conference in Beijing, General Secretary of the Communist Party Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed to notify the…
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China Steps In as World's New Bank

China Steps In as World's New Bank | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Beijing's move to bail out Russia signals the death of the post-war Bretton Woods world -- and the beginning of the end for America's linchpin role in the global economy.
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

As if the "suggardaddy" western development ever worked. 

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The Samantha Power Doctrine

The Samantha Power Doctrine | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
She has President Obama’s ear. To what end?
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

"Power wrote of Sergio Vieira de Mello, 'He started out as a humanitarian,' but, after years of contending with crises around the world, “he had become a diplomat and politician, comfortable weighing lesser evils.' She called him a 'Machiavellian idealist.' She told me, 'As time wears on, I find myself gravitating more and more to the G.S.D. people'—the 'get shit done' people, a term favored by Susan Rice. 'We’re racing against the clock here to get as much done as we can. So when you run across people who know how to be bureaucratic samurais, or are especially persuasive in their diplomacy internationally, spend more time on those relationships, and on brainstorming with those individuals, to achieve a common purpose. Principles and positions only take you so far.'” 

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NATO to hold ceremony closing Afghan mission

NATO to hold ceremony closing Afghan mission | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
The event was arranged in secret due to the threat of Taliban strikes in the Afghan capital, which has been hit by repeated suicide bombings and gun attacks over recent years.
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

"The event was arranged in secret due to the threat of Taliban strikes in the Afghan capital, which has been hit by repeated suicide bombings and gun attacks over recent years."


After 13 years, arranged in secret!!

 
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Henry Kissinger: To settle the Ukraine crisis, start at the end

Henry Kissinger: To settle the Ukraine crisis, start at the end | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Leaders on all sides in the Ukraine crisis should return to examining outcomes, not compete in posturing.
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

A bit old, but still timely. "These are principles, not prescriptions. People familiar with the region will know that not all of them will be palatable to all parties. The test is not absolute satisfaction but balanced dissatisfaction. If some solution based on these or comparable elements is not achieved, the drift toward confrontation will accelerate. The time for that will come soon enough."

  
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Four-Star Critique

Four-Star Critique | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Don’t announce when you’re going to withdraw troops and don’t broadcast the military options you’ve ruled out if you want to be successful in war.…
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With Obscure Treaties, Moscow Pulls Breakaway Regions Into Its Orbit

With Obscure Treaties, Moscow Pulls Breakaway Regions Into Its Orbit | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Russia has many ways to influence events in countries on its periphery, both subtle and not. In Ukraine, that influence-peddling has taken the form of…
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

Is Russia shooting itself in the foot?

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How to Rule the High Seas and Contain an Asian Country That Will Remain Nameless

How to Rule the High Seas and Contain an Asian Country That Will Remain Nameless | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Florentine philosopher-statesman Niccolò Machiavelli wrote that keeping pace with the times is the paramount challenge of statecraft. If so, the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and…
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

It, that dreadful it. 

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Davos 2015: The aid system is overwhelmed

Davos 2015: The aid system is overwhelmed | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
The international aid system is broken. Antonio Guterres, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, thinks it can be fixed – but only if the private sector is on board.
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China’s Drone Program Keeps Stealthily Inching Forward

China’s Drone Program Keeps Stealthily Inching Forward | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
China’s slow, incremental march toward a cutting-edge air force quietly continues. According to photos posted online in December and recently highlighted by Jane’s Defence Weekly,…
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The Sanctions-Proof Superpower

The Sanctions-Proof Superpower | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
With the ruble in the dumps and the Russian economy in shambles, Vladimir Putin’s compatriots can easily count the cost of his territorial ambitions. Moscow…
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Sri Lanka's President Loses an Election—and China Loses an Ally

Sri Lanka's President Loses an Election—and China Loses an Ally | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
The island nation's pesky voters have interfered with China's plans to use Sri Lanka as a thorn in India's side
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Ein neuer regionaler Machtpoker

Ein neuer regionaler Machtpoker | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
Mit dem Aufstieg des Islamischen Staates in Syrien und im Irak hat sich die regionale Ordnung dramatisch verändert. Während der Iran und die Türkei zu zentralen politischen Akteuren in der Krisenregion avancieren, verliert der Westen weiter an Einfluss. Eine Bestandsaufnahme von Karim El-Gawhary
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

"Die USA müssten die Region nicht dominieren, sondern nur dafür sorgen, dass sie niemand anderes dominiert, so das Credo."

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What the Pentagon Can Learn From Carpenters

What the Pentagon Can Learn From Carpenters | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
For more than two years, the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) has tried to carve out modicums of peace and stability that might lead…
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

Can one sustainably win hearts and minds?

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Gun Trouble

Gun Trouble | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
The rifle that today's infantry uses is little changed since the 1960s—and it is badly flawed. Military lives depend on these cheap composites of metal and plastic. So why can't the richest country in the world give its soldiers better ones?
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Our Man in Africa

Our Man in Africa | Geopolitics, Security and Political Risk | Scoop.it
‘Was it worth it?’ Look at Vietnam. Look at Iraq ten years later. Bin Laden? The ‘War on Terror’? We spent a trillion dollars over ten years to put a 50-cent round in one guy’s head? Everybody thinks that’s a huge success. I don’t know.
Middle East Prospects Forum's insight:

"‘Was it worth it?’ Look at Vietnam. Look at Iraq ten years later. Bin Laden? The ‘War on Terror’? We spent a trillion dollars over ten years to put a 50-cent round in one guy’s head? Everybody thinks that’s a huge success. I don’t know."

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