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The countries most at risk for a coup in 2013

The countries most at risk for a coup in 2013 | Geography Education | Scoop.it

"The map [above] sorts the countries of the world into three groups based on their relative coup risk for 2013: highest (red), moderate (orange), and lowest (beige)."

Seth Dixon's insight:

While this is not predicting a coup in any of these places, this map is a visualization of data that was used to assess the factors that would make a coup likely (to see an alternate map, here is the Washington Post's review of the same data that mapped the 30 countries most likely to have a coup). 


Questions to Ponder: What factors do you think would be important in compilling data of this nature?  What makes a country susceptible to this type of governmental overthrow?  What creates governmental stability? 


Tags: political, conflict, unit 4 political, governance, Africa.

more...
wereldvak's curator insight, January 26, 2013 2:28 AM

Factoren die meespelen zijn hieronder genoemd.

 

The algorithm for successful coups uses just four risk factors, one of which is really just an adjustment to the intercept.

Infant mortality rate (relative to annual global median, logged): higher risk in countries with higher rates.Degree of democracy (Polity score, quadratic): higher risk for countries in the mid-range of the 21-point scale.Recent coup activity (yes or no): higher risk if any activity in the past five years.Post-Cold War period: lower risk since 1989.

The algorithm for any coup attempts, successful or failed, uses the following ten risk factors, including all four of the ones used to forecast successful coups.

Infant mortality rate (relative to annual global median, logged): higher risk in countries with higher rates.Recent coup activity (count of past five years with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more activity.Post-Cold War period: lower risk since 1989.Popular uprisings in region (count of countries with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more of them.Insurgencies in region (count of countries with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more of them.Economic growth (year-to-year change in GDP per capita): higher risk with slower growth.Regime durability (time since last abrupt change in Polity score, plus one and logged): lower risk with longer time.Ongoing insurgency (yes or no): higher risk if yes.Ongoing civil resistance campaign (yes or no): higher risk if yes.Signatory to 1st Optional Protocol of the UN’s International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (yes or no): lower risk if yes.

from:http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/assessing-coup-risk-in-2012/ ;
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