Gentlemachines
3.2K views | +0 today
Follow
Gentlemachines
What's new at the crossroads of culture, technology and science
Curated by Artur Alves
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Scooped by Artur Alves
Scoop.it!

This algorithm can predict a revolution

This algorithm can predict a revolution | Gentlemachines | Scoop.it
For students of international conflict, 2013 provided plenty to examine. There was civil war in Syria, ethnic violence in China, and riots to the point of revolution in Ukraine. For those working...
Artur Alves's insight:

"For students of international conflict, 2013 provided plenty to examine. There was civil war in Syria, ethnic violence in China, and riots to the point of revolution in Ukraine. For those working at Duke University’s Ward Lab, all specialists in predicting conflict, the year looks like a betting sheet, full of predictions that worked and others that didn’t pan out.

 

When the lab put out their semiannual predictions in July, they gave Paraguay a 97 percent chance of insurgency, largely based on reports of Marxist rebels. The next month, guerrilla campaigns intensified, proving out the prediction. In the case of China's armed clashes between Uighurs and Hans, the models showed a 33 percent chance of violence, even as the cause of each individual flare-up was concealed by the country's state-run media. On the other hand, the unrest in Ukraine didn't start raising alarms until the action had already started, so the country was left off the report entirely."

 

 

more...
Eli Levine's curator insight, February 18, 2014 4:47 PM

I wonder if they're checking the United States at all with this supposed "existential threat" talk.  You'd think you'd be able to get the same kind of data by simply talking with people in the streets and getting the "temperature" of people's sentiments.

 

Still, I bet we can make it better than 80% if we combine the endeavors of investigative journalism with this computer algorithm.  Would be incredibly helpful for us to know, as well as to share with others.

 

Think about it.

Scooped by Artur Alves
Scoop.it!

Surveillance blowback: the making of the US surveillance state, 1898-2020 | openDemocracy

Surveillance blowback: the making of the US surveillance state, 1898-2020 | openDemocracy | Gentlemachines | Scoop.it
Artur Alves's insight:

"The American surveillance state is now an omnipresent reality, but its deep history is little known and its future little grasped.  Edward Snowden’s leaked documents reveal that, in a post-9/11 state of war, the National Security Agency (NSA) was able to create a surveillance system that could secretly monitor the private communications of almost every American in the name of fighting foreign terrorists. The technology used is state of the art; the impulse, it turns out, is nothing new. For well over a century, what might be called “surveillance blowback” from America’s wars has ensured the creation of an ever more massive and omnipresent internal security and surveillance apparatus.  Its future (though not ours) looks bright indeed."

more...
No comment yet.