FinBuzz (press release) (blog) Nassim Taleb explains how fragile economies crumble under stress FinBuzz (press release) (blog) The author of The Black Swan explains his latest 'antifragile' theory, which divides the world economy into three...
So one of my favorite things about decision intelligence is its promise to help to overcome unintended consequences. As a way to capture both mental models, as well as providing an ongoing infrastructure to gather evidence to support and refine what start out as mental models and end up as sophisticated systems models, I’m tremendously excited about the future of what we can do.
In that effort I think it wise to seriously reflect on nature’s patterns. Evolution, ecology and ancient tribal cultures all tell us – each in their own useful ways – that nature is sustained by the participation of all its life forms and ecosystems, all its elemental forces and cycles. They tell us that communities and species thrive within that vibrant association by fitting their participation harmoniously into the larger dance of life around them. Sure, they can and do shape their environment to serve their needs and dreams. But they must simultaneously serve the wellbeing of their fellows and their ecosystem or they risk being removed from the dance by elemental forces and cycles far greater than themselves.
"In this real-life model of forest resilience and regeneration, Professor Suzanne Simard shows that all trees in a forest ecosystem are interconnected, with the largest, oldest, "mother trees" serving as hubs. The underground exchange of nutrients increases the survival of younger trees linked into the network of old trees. Amazingly, we find that in a forest, 1+1 equals more than 2"
Keynote speaker: Dr. Kennie H. Jones from NASA kindly agreed to give a keynote speech at ANTIFRAGILE 2014. He will discuss, among other issues, the role that antifragile engineering is playing within NASA and how this research direction may provide an answer to the design challenges of large and complex resilient and antifragile systems.
The expected returns are extraordinary as well: antifragile computer engineering promises to enable realizing truly autonomic systems and ambients able to meta-adapt to changing circumstances; to self-adjust to dynamically changing environments and ambients; to self-organize so as to track dynamically and proactively optimal strategies to sustain scalability, high-performance, and energy efficiency; to personalize their aspects and behaviors after each and every user. And to learn how to get better while doing it.
The ambition and mission of ANTIFRAGILE is to enhance the awareness of the above challenges and to begin a discussion on how computer and software engineering may address them. As a design aspect cross-cutting through all system and communication layers, antifragile engineering will require multi-disciplinary visions and approaches able to bridge the gaps between “distant” research communities so as to propose novel solutions to design and develop antifragile systems and ambients; devise conceptual models and paradigms for antifragility ; provide analytical and simulation models and tools to measure systems ability to withstand faults, adjust to new environments, and enhance their resilience in the process; foster the exchange of ideas and lively discussions able to drive future research and development efforts in the area.
James C.Scott’s fascinating and seminal book, Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed, examines how, across dozens of domains, ranging from agriculture and forestry, to urban planning and census-taking, ...
Many complex networks show signs of modular structure, uncovered by community detection. Although many methods succeed in revealing various partitions, it remains difficult to detect at what scale some partition is significant.
"It’s not a question of “motivating” people, but understanding why people are naturally motivated to share.....Even with a clear, resonating purpose, salaried employees still own nothing on the enterprise social network. Aye, there’s the rub."
"We are using an assumed technology of design all the time, but Alexander argues that what is needed must be different in five key respects:
1) Adaptive design cannot start from a supposed tabula rasa condition, but will always transform what already exists. Even similar design problems, in different contexts, have the task of transforming distinct configurations. In mathematical terms, every design problem has distinct initial conditions that strongly influence the solution.
2) Adaptive design has to engage multiple actors, forming a “collective intelligence” to explore the universe of available solutions and non-solutions. Otherwise, the search algorithm seeking good solutions can take forever, so someone chooses an arbitrary, poorly adapted or dysfunctional solution out of desperation.
3) Adaptive design explicitly employs simple stepwise procedures, operating sometimes at fine scales that can vary and adapt as they develop. This is known in the software community as “interactive computation”, in which the momentary configuration influences the solution as it develops. Computation is affected by feedback in real time.
4) An intelligent approach to design recapitulates the evolutionary successes of the past, and avoids the evolutionary failures of the past, by retaining “genetic information” on the most successful patterns, which we can re-use. Again, it is the software people who have profited most from this insight.
5) A revolutionary aspect is to use the qualitative aspects of living systems, and in particular, the qualities of feeling that we bring to the design process. Surprisingly, this qualitative “selection by systemic attributes” very effectively helps to narrow down the search for adaptive solutions."
Anne Caspari's insight:
It is well worth studying the morphgenetics of design. With awareness based techniques and the "collective intelligence" we can identify not rigid blueprints but underlying principles that would allow us to come up with adaptive generative design solutions in resonance and alignment with life. And reliably so.
Say “Self-Management” and almost everyone gets the wrong idea.
Self-managing structures are appearing everywhere, and get increasing attention in the media. They seem to be much more adaptative, agile, motivating than traditional pyramidal organizations, and they appear to achieve spectacular results. But is this a simple fad, or a new phenomenon destined to spread? And why are most people dismissive when you mention the possibility to run organizations “without a boss”?
Your job is not what you do, but the goal you pursue. Your real goal, however, is not your individual KPI, but the team’s goal. Whether you play defense or offense, your real goal is to help your team to win the game.Winning is each and every player’s primary job.A defensive player normally helps his team to win by defending, but not always. For example, when losing 1 to 0 with five minutes to go, it may be better to attack—even at the risk of a counter-attack.But if the coach assesses the defender’s performance based on goals scored by the opposition, a perverse situa
1. Sticking together; cohering.2. Marked by an orderly, logical, and aesthetically consistent relation of parts: a coherent essay.3. Physics Of, relating to, or having waves with similar direction, amplitude, and phase that are capable of exhibiting interference.
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