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FuturICT: Towards a global participatory platform

FuturICT: Towards a global participatory platform | FuturICT Journal Publications | Scoop.it

S. Buckingham Shum, K. Aberer, A. Schmidt, S. Bishop, P. Lukowicz, S. Anderson, Y. Charalabidis, J. Domingue, S. de Freitas, I. Dunwell, B. Edmonds, F. Grey, M. Haklay, M. Jelasity, A. Karpištšenko, J. Kohlhammer, J. Lewis, J. Pitt, R. Sumner, D. Helbing

 

The FuturICT project seeks to use the power of big data, analytic models grounded in complexity science, and the collective intelligence they yield for societal benefit. Accordingly, this paper argues that these new tools should not remain the preserve of restricted government, scientific or corporate élites, but be opened up for societal engagement and critique. To democratise such assets as a public good, requires a sustainable ecosystem enabling different kinds of stakeholder in society, including but not limited to, citizens and advocacy groups, school and university students, policy analysts, scientists, software developers, journalists and politicians. Our working name for envisioning a sociotechnical infrastructure capable of engaging such a wide constituency is the Global Participatory Platform (GPP). We consider what it means to develop a GPP at the different levels of data, models and deliberation, motivating a framework for different stakeholders to find their ecological niches at different levels within the system, serving the functions of (i) sensing the environment in order to pool data, (ii) mining the resulting data for patterns in order to model the past/present/future, and (iii) sharing and contesting possible interpretations of what those models might mean, and in a policy context, possible decisions. A research objective is also to apply the concepts and tools of complexity science and social science to the project’s own work. We therefore conceive the global participatory platform as a resilient, epistemic ecosystem, whose design will make it capable of self-organization and adaptation to a dynamic environment, and whose structure and contributions are themselves networks of stakeholders, challenges, issues, ideas and arguments whose structure and dynamics can be modelled and analysed.

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JOURNAL: THE EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL SPECIAL TOPICS Vol. 214 (November II 2012)"Participatory Science and Computing for Our Complex World".
http://epjst.epj.org/index.php?option=com_toc&url=/articles/epjst/abs/2012/14/contents/contents.html

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Quantifying the Behavior of Stock Correlations Under Market Stress: Tobias Preis, Helen Susannah Moat, H. Eugene Stanley & Steven R. Bishop

Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets. Reliable estimates of correlations are absolutely necessary to protect a portfolio. We analyze 72 years of daily closing prices of the 30 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We find the striking result that the average correlation among these stocks scales linearly with market stress reflected by

normalized DJIA index returns on various time scales. Consequently, the diversification effect which should protect a portfolio melts away in times of market losses, just when it would most urgently be needed. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the interesting possibility that one could anticipate diversification breakdowns, guiding the design of protected portfolios.

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