How Resilient Are Our Societies? Analyses, Models, and Preliminary Results
Traditional social organizations such as those for the management of healthcare and civil defence are the result of designs and realizations that matched well with an operational context considerably different from the one we are experiencing today: A simpler world, characterized by a greater amount of resources to match less users producing lower peaks of requests. The new context reveals all the fragility of our societies: unmanageability is just around the corner unless we do not complement the "old recipes" with smarter forms of social organization. Here we analyze this problem and propose a refinement to our fractal social organizations as a model for resilient cyber-physical societies. Evidence to our claims is provided by simulating our model in terms of multi-agent systems.
This is called "Kinesis". It's an audio-visual representation of a Fractal Social Organization (FSO). FSO is a novel class of socio-technical complex systems characterized by a distributed, bio-inspired, hierarchical architecture. Based on a same building block that is recursively applied at different layers, FSO-based systems provide a homogeneous way to model collective behaviors of different complexity and scale.The above video renders FSO 0012234456. Each frame represents the same thing: all the possible aggregations of active members in a given society. As an example, a society
Urban systems present hierarchical structures at many different scales. These are observed as administrative regional delimitations, which are the outcome of geographical, political and historical constraints. Using percolation theory on the street intersections and on the road network of Britain, we obtain hierarchies at different scales that are independent of administrative arrangements. Natural boundaries, such as islands and National Parks, consistently emerge at the largest/regional scales. Cities are devised through recursive percolations on each of the emerging clusters, but the system does not undergo a phase transition at the distance threshold at which cities can be defined. This specific distance is obtained by computing the fractal dimension of the clusters extracted at each distance threshold. We observe that the fractal dimension presents a maximum over all the different distance thresholds. The clusters obtained at this maximum are in very good correspondence to the morphological definition of cities given by satellite images, and by other methods previously developed by the authors (Arcaute et al. 2015).
Hierarchical organisation of Britain through percolation theory Elsa Arcaute, Carlos Molinero, Erez Hatna, Roberto Murcio, Camilo Vargas-Ruiz, Paolo Masucci, Jiaqiu Wang, Michael Batty
The present article introduces a reference framework for discussing resilience of computational systems. Rather than a property that may or may not be exhibited by a system, resilience is interpreted here as the emerging result of a dynamic process. Said process represents the dynamic interplay between the behaviors exercised by a system and those of the environment it is set to operate in. As a result of this interpretation, coherent definitions of several aspects of resilience can be derived and proposed, including elasticity, change tolerance, and antifragility. Definitions are also provided for measures of the risk of unresilience as well as for the optimal match of a given resilient design with respect to the current environmental conditions. Finally, a resilience strategy based on our model is exemplified through a simple scenario.
Roger Pielke wrote an article at FiveThirtyEight about whether the rising costs of disasters are linked to climate change. The article got a lot of comments and generated some critical press As a result, Roger posted a followup to quell the critics. What’s all the hubbub? Roger’s conclusion is that rising disaster costs are not the result of climate change. Or at …
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